WinterWxLuvr Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Dec 4th may be the new Dec 5th dec4th.JPG You can lock that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 post the next map Bob! :weenie: heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 heh heh.JPG Maybe Matt will include that in his winter outlook thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 The 1026 High in SE Canada is going to evaporate and be replaced by a weak low in the Great Lakes. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Next winter is such a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Best thread ever...not kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Next winter is such a disaster Gonna be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakiri Would you eat the moon if it was made of ribs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Next winter is such a disaster This should make you feel better.....or not..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 +1 +9 +7 -9 5" Biggest storm on April 8th....No measurable until February 17th 12-24" for mountains on September 31st January Clipper dumps 6-10" in central VA with 17" in St. Mary's county MD.... I like it Matt. Of course only I realize those are your temps for Sept-Dec. That -9 Dec will be epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I like it Matt. Of course only I realize those are your temps for Sept-Dec. That -9 Dec will be epic! Your favorite LR model has a new product (to fook up)...Arctic 2M Temps I sure hope it's right with this one though because we know what that would mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 If I had to make a call now I'd probably go +2 for DJF with 40% chance all 3 months + 40% chance 2 out of 3 + 20% chance 2//3 or 3/3 cold Most likely to be below Dec or Jan 8-10" not you, the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I think El Nino is way more likely than the CPC/IRI models are showing...though I agree that neutral is the most likely right now for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I think El Nino is way more likely than the CPC/IRI models are showing...though I agree that neutral is the most likely right now for next winter. Neutral would suck for us, that would probably give us 4 brutal years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 The models sniffed out 2002 and 2009 by this time even though they undersold both....we know they are probably going to undersell the strength of any warm or cold event at this point which makes sense when you aggregate...but I figure positive neutral is probably best bet....weak nino would help a bit here but not a whole lot.... I'm with you. It's looking pretty doubtful that we score a +1C month in 3.4 this year. Highest tri will prob end up being .5-.6 unless things start changing in a hurry. There's still time to go NINO but we're about out of time for +1-1.5 range considering all the guidance. PDO went .08 in May (first + monthly reading since May 2010). We're obviously in a long term - regime but there are always outliers. Maybe we can get a little help there and pray for some sort of dominant -nao/ao and +pna period. I'm so used to not getting snow that a region wide 4" storm would feel like a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I'm with you. It's looking pretty doubtful that we score a +1C month in 3.4 this year. Highest tri will prob end up being .5-.6 unless things start changing in a hurry. There's still time to go NINO but we're about out of time for +1-1.5 range considering all the guidance. PDO went .08 in May (first + monthly reading since May 2010). We're obviously in a long term - regime but there are always outliers. Maybe we can get a little help there and pray for some sort of dominant -nao/ao and +pna period. I'm so used to not getting snow that a region wide 4" storm would feel like a monster. .05-.07 in 3.4 and -.2 - -.4 in 1+2 might give us the right "relative" ENSO numbers to act more Nino'ish than Nina'ish, which is about all I'm hoping for at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 The models sniffed out 2002 and 2009 by this time even though they undersold both....we know they are probably going to undersell the strength of any warm or cold event at this point which makes sense when you aggregate...but I figure positive neutral is probably best bet....weak nino would help a bit here but not a whole lot.... Yeah that is what I would go with right now for a gun-to-head call. But certainly wouldn't rule out a weak Nino at this point. Last year seemed to be the first time recently where the models over-estimated ENSO. It looked like for a time we were a lock for weak El Nino and a solid shot at low-end Moderate...but it never even got to official weak criteria. PDO was pretty brutal though which was definitely a factor I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 I'd probably go for 51-54 style or 06....I think those would kind of suck for everyone...I don't think we can expect monster blocking anymore...the atlantic may be ok at times, and the PAC will probably be awful as usual..... I'm not sure why we can't have big Atlantic blocking...its been a recurring theme the past 4-5 winters for the most part. Exception of 2011-2012. This regime seems to want to support it...much like the 1960s. I do agree we shouldn't expect it though. But your outlook on the Atlantic implies a lot more pessimism than I think is warranted. I do agree the PDO looks to stay negative, but can't rule out a spike if Nino tries to develop. There's been signs of weakness there. Its not an easy forecast IMHO at this point (not that it ever is)...but ENSO is pretty uncertain. It looks like another year where ENSO will not be the dominating factor..at least as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 3 days. to me, this has been the quickest spring to summer period thanks to the March events (OK, 1 event and 1 non-event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 I'm bullish. Get ready and refresh your shovels. NAO/PNA and if we're lucky......perhaps PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Sounds like 04-05 winter when you repeatedly told us how great our winter was. '04-'05 would be a blockbuster for DCA compared to the last 3 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Id take it immediately. Solid winter for me (17") and pretty much every event underperformed. Could have easily been 20-25" with just a little luck. I would take it too.The 2 events the last week of Feb. were very close to being big. Either one could have turned into a Feb. 06 for us. But like you implied, just bad luck that both underperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Id take it immediately. Solid winter for me (17") and pretty much every event underperformed. Could have easily been 20-25" with just a little luck. Yeah I think 1/22/05 and 2/25/05 you'd like to have over again and 9/10 times you will do better in those. Not a classic DCA winter, but easily a 20"+ type winter with some impressive cold in Jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 I think we had 15 in 04-05. The biggest was 7 on Feb 28th and 2 2-3 inch events in March, but under forecast. Jan 22 was a half inch of snow and sleet down here, but we had a clipper 2 days before that was 2 inches-- with the cold, snowcover lasted maybe a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 We are guaranteed to get no snow now: http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 +PDO in June for 1st time in 35 months +0.08! woot Waiting for your winter guess, even though this far out we all know it is just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 +PDO in June for 1st time in 35 months +0.08! woot It'll probably be like -1.45 by October or something. But who knows, maybe we'll get a fluke neutral like '60-'61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 all we'd need is to go back in time and make the previous 3 winters Nino-Nino-Neutral Well we got the neutral part right...does that count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I always thought that if the previous winter was neutral, then there'd be no more Nina hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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