HM Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 HM, there really has been no sign of Nino conditions returning since last summer before the rug came out and the odds seem to be increasingly stacked against it. Your post is disheartening of course but far from unexpected. It is what it is. Well, like I said last month, I have no clue yet what the winter holds. But guessing the state of ENSO is something we are more likely to do accurately at this range. The idea of an El Niño building was certainly a popular one last spring and even this spring to some extent (but more went neutral this year). On some "out there" type of thinking, it is quite possible last year was the "El Niño" wave, regardless of our definitions and we have sloshed back to a cooler regime. LOL at trusting anything more than the CFS 2. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Gulf of Alaska is looking pretty decent right now, though I'd like to see the warmth trend north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Ugh @ the equatorial Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Ugh @ the equatorial Pac. heh, hard to ignore. I've written off enso as a + factor this winter. I'd be surprised if any tri monthly comes in above or below +/- .6 or so. PDO could potentially help a little. It's relaxed quite a bit from a solid - period. Even through we are smack in the middle of a - regime there are always outlier years. Of course the big outliers are alongside NINO's but hopefully it's at the very least not a negative influence. A semi decent npac can really help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Gulf of Alaska is looking pretty decent right now, though I'd like to see the warmth trend north a bit looks like a pretty classic -PDO signature to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 looks like a pretty classic -PDO signature to me Not as much in the npac. It's like a mixed bag. Equatorial area is classic but the cold pool off japan is not a terrible thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Not as much in the npac. It's like a mixed bag. Equatorial area is classic but the cold pool off japan is not a terrible thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but all that really matters is what the CFS 2 is showing. What are we looking at for Dec 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Yeah, yeah, yeah, but all that really matters is what the CFS 2 is showing. What are we looking at for Dec 5? Phineas will be spending Dec 5th @ deep creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I was googling looking for the 13/14 UKMet NAO forecast a minute ago and found this that was just updated today http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I was googling looking for the 13/14 UKMet NAO forecast a minute ago and found this that was just updated today http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 He is like a broken clock except he is right twice a year not per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 The Winter ahead for 2013-2014 will see bigger changes than the last two winter in several ways. We'll be in either a moderate to strong El Nino or La Nina. Right now we lean to a "WEAK EL NINO". What the hell does this mean? So...we'll be in one of a moderate to strong Nino or Nina, but he's thinking it'll be a weak Nino? Is it me, or does that not make sense to anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 What the hell does this mean? So...we'll be in one of a moderate to strong Nino or Nina, but he's thinking it'll be a weak Nino? Is it me, or does that not make sense to anyone else? LOL, Did Yogi say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Phineas will be spending Dec 5th @ deep creek. dec5th1.JPG Bob, we need a weekly update on this forecast through the end of August. We will need daily updates on it for September and October, and hourly updates on it through the month of November. Thanks in advance. 11 days until Christmas for us winter folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Bob, we need a weekly update on this forecast through the end of August. We will need daily updates on it for September and October, and hourly updates on it through the month of November. Thanks in advance. 11 days until Christmas for us winter folks. Dec 4th may be the new Dec 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Dec 4th may be the new Dec 5th dec4th.JPG Im in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Dec 4th may be the new Dec 5th dec4th.JPG post the next map Bob! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Dec 4th may be the new Dec 5th dec4th.JPG You can lock that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 post the next map Bob! :weenie: heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 heh heh.JPG Maybe Matt will include that in his winter outlook thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 The 1026 High in SE Canada is going to evaporate and be replaced by a weak low in the Great Lakes. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Next winter is such a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Best thread ever...not kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Next winter is such a disaster Gonna be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakiri Would you eat the moon if it was made of ribs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Next winter is such a disaster This should make you feel better.....or not..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 +1 +9 +7 -9 5" Biggest storm on April 8th....No measurable until February 17th 12-24" for mountains on September 31st January Clipper dumps 6-10" in central VA with 17" in St. Mary's county MD.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 +1 +9 +7 -9 5" Biggest storm on April 8th....No measurable until February 17th 12-24" for mountains on September 31st January Clipper dumps 6-10" in central VA with 17" in St. Mary's county MD.... I like it Matt. Of course only I realize those are your temps for Sept-Dec. That -9 Dec will be epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I like it Matt. Of course only I realize those are your temps for Sept-Dec. That -9 Dec will be epic! Your favorite LR model has a new product (to fook up)...Arctic 2M Temps I sure hope it's right with this one though because we know what that would mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 If I had to make a call now I'd probably go +2 for DJF with 40% chance all 3 months + 40% chance 2 out of 3 + 20% chance 2//3 or 3/3 cold Most likely to be below Dec or Jan 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 If I had to make a call now I'd probably go +2 for DJF with 40% chance all 3 months + 40% chance 2 out of 3 + 20% chance 2//3 or 3/3 cold Most likely to be below Dec or Jan 8-10" not you, the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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