mattie g Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 we need a Harri-Kari emoticon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakiri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 May ENSO update from CPC came out yesterday. The very short version is that all models are still pointing towards neutral down the road. But CPC says its a low confidence forecast because spring is a bad time to predict long lead enso conditions. We have time but unless things start looking up by mid july we'll probably have to accept the fact that another neutral year is on the way and deal with it. Latest 3.4 trimonthly can in @ -0.4. The only Nino's I see on record that came on the heels of similar trimonthlies ended up weak in the 1.0 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Screw my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Enso conditions aren't the absolute factor. They may be a heavy player, but snowfall is very sensitive to the smallest of factors. We were an eyelash from a BIG winter in 10-11. If I remember, that was a Nina? There are lots of drawbacks to looking way ahead and very little to be gained, other than the fun of curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 There are lots of drawbacks to looking way ahead and very little to be gained, other than the fun of curiosity. There is very much to be gained. We know exactly when to put Ji on suicide watch. Gotta protect our most amusing winter poster. I think my post might have put his finger on the cancel button. Good thing there is an un-cancel cancel button and a cancel un-cancel cancel un-cancel button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 There is very much to be gained. We know exactly when to put Ji on suicide watch. Gotta protect our most amusing winter poster. I think my post might have put his finger on the cancel button. Good thing there is an un-cancel cancel button and a cancel un-cancel cancel un-cancel button. LOL. If we cancel now, we can always restart it in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 A little too far east but plenty of time to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 A little too far east but plenty of time to adjust. dec5th.JPG Better tracking this 7 months in advance than severe or 90's and humid. Please keep us posted every 6 hours . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Can't believe how silent this thread has been since the severe wx guys hightailed it west. Frost advisories for parts of NW Michigan tonight. Nice and late in the year for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Screw my life Well friends... Following the wintertime IOSD switch from positive to negative and now the development of a solid -IOD, the tropical forcing cannot get established correctly to produce the WWB needed for an El Niño. We are going to go at least another month of this (mean uplift in traditional La Niña positioning around 120E and waves either enhancing this or somewhat weakening it but not capable of warming ENSO on their own). Also, the solar/QBO aspect favors cooling overall for the next month or so. It is quite possible La Niña will try to fight back. Solar maximum anticipated this year, aiding in warming of the subsidence branch of the Hadley Cells in the Pacific and possibly the equatorial regions. The same can be said with the QBO wave. These things may change in time for winter, but by that point, it may be too late for anything other than a weak-mod La Niña or cold neutral. It does appear that things will probably head toward El Niño next year, assuming the QBO-solar-ENSO system plays out even remotely close to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Well friends... Following the wintertime IOSD switch from positive to negative and now the development of a solid -IOD, the tropical forcing cannot get established correctly to produce the WWB needed for an El Niño. We are going to go at least another month of this (mean uplift in traditional La Niña positioning around 120E and waves either enhancing this or somewhat weakening it but not capable of warming ENSO on their own). Also, the solar/QBO aspect favors cooling overall for the next month or so. It is quite possible La Niña will try to fight back. Solar maximum anticipated this year, aiding in warming of the subsidence branch of the Hadley Cells in the Pacific and possibly the equatorial regions. The same can be said with the QBO wave. These things may change in time for winter, but by that point, it may be too late for anything other than a weak-mod La Niña or cold neutral. It does appear that things will probably head toward El Niño next year, assuming the QBO-solar-ENSO system plays out even remotely close to expectations. ughhh boy... I guess JI was bound to call one right 6 months before winter begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 HM, there really has been no sign of Nino conditions returning since last summer before the rug came out and the odds seem to be increasingly stacked against it. Your post is disheartening of course but far from unexpected. It is what it is. I suppose we're simply at the mercy of the dominant longwave patterns that will set up and accept the fact that there will be a bias for another year of storms that favor a track n&w of the MA. I can pick the glass half full side (like I always do. lol) and say that we did have a great 8 week stretch of a lw pattern that would have produced wonderfully if it had happened just a month or 2 earlier. We also had a nice period of extended cold prior to that after the awful pac finally broke down. Winter existed quite well in the MA last year but the ingredients didn't want to work in harmony. Even if we end up with identical enso conditions this year there is no reason to write anything off. The winter may not be laden with juicy miller A's and copious cold but that rarely happens anyway in these parts. The PDO is definitely in an overall neg regime but it has been relaxing since last fall. The index is basically neutral as of the end of April. I suppose there is an outside chance the phase goes positive during the important months coming up this fall and that could be helpful. I guess there won't be much to talk about this summer and reasonable expectations for the upcoming winter will be below normal snow and within a degree or 2 of normal for temps for djf. Regardless of ENSO we seem to get some ao/nao love every winter lately. It can't possibly be as bad as it has been in the snow department the last couple years can it? LOLOL. yes it can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 LOL at trusting anything more than the CFS 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 As long as it isn't another La Niña, I'm okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 HM, there really has been no sign of Nino conditions returning since last summer before the rug came out and the odds seem to be increasingly stacked against it. Your post is disheartening of course but far from unexpected. It is what it is. Well, like I said last month, I have no clue yet what the winter holds. But guessing the state of ENSO is something we are more likely to do accurately at this range. The idea of an El Niño building was certainly a popular one last spring and even this spring to some extent (but more went neutral this year). On some "out there" type of thinking, it is quite possible last year was the "El Niño" wave, regardless of our definitions and we have sloshed back to a cooler regime. LOL at trusting anything more than the CFS 2. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Gulf of Alaska is looking pretty decent right now, though I'd like to see the warmth trend north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Ugh @ the equatorial Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Ugh @ the equatorial Pac. heh, hard to ignore. I've written off enso as a + factor this winter. I'd be surprised if any tri monthly comes in above or below +/- .6 or so. PDO could potentially help a little. It's relaxed quite a bit from a solid - period. Even through we are smack in the middle of a - regime there are always outlier years. Of course the big outliers are alongside NINO's but hopefully it's at the very least not a negative influence. A semi decent npac can really help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 looks like a pretty classic -PDO signature to me Not as much in the npac. It's like a mixed bag. Equatorial area is classic but the cold pool off japan is not a terrible thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Not as much in the npac. It's like a mixed bag. Equatorial area is classic but the cold pool off japan is not a terrible thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but all that really matters is what the CFS 2 is showing. What are we looking at for Dec 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Yeah, yeah, yeah, but all that really matters is what the CFS 2 is showing. What are we looking at for Dec 5? Phineas will be spending Dec 5th @ deep creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I was googling looking for the 13/14 UKMet NAO forecast a minute ago and found this that was just updated today http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I was googling looking for the 13/14 UKMet NAO forecast a minute ago and found this that was just updated today http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 He is like a broken clock except he is right twice a year not per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 The Winter ahead for 2013-2014 will see bigger changes than the last two winter in several ways. We'll be in either a moderate to strong El Nino or La Nina. Right now we lean to a "WEAK EL NINO". What the hell does this mean? So...we'll be in one of a moderate to strong Nino or Nina, but he's thinking it'll be a weak Nino? Is it me, or does that not make sense to anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 What the hell does this mean? So...we'll be in one of a moderate to strong Nino or Nina, but he's thinking it'll be a weak Nino? Is it me, or does that not make sense to anyone else? LOL, Did Yogi say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Phineas will be spending Dec 5th @ deep creek. dec5th1.JPG Bob, we need a weekly update on this forecast through the end of August. We will need daily updates on it for September and October, and hourly updates on it through the month of November. Thanks in advance. 11 days until Christmas for us winter folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Bob, we need a weekly update on this forecast through the end of August. We will need daily updates on it for September and October, and hourly updates on it through the month of November. Thanks in advance. 11 days until Christmas for us winter folks. Dec 4th may be the new Dec 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Dec 4th may be the new Dec 5th dec4th.JPG Im in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Dec 4th may be the new Dec 5th dec4th.JPG post the next map Bob! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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