wxdude64 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 That's physically impossible. Which part? The 18" or the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 She's great! Rolling over and over and over. Nice! Ours has been threatening to flip over for a few weeks now, but she hasn't gotten around to it yet. But she is a talker and a singer. She *loves* to interact and let you know exactly what's on her mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Which part? The 18" or the NAM? The nailed. The NAM has no strengths. It's a model designed to always be wrong, so one can know what's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 The nailed. The NAM has no strengths. It's a model designed to always be wrong, so one can know what's not going to happen. Haha! That's what I always thought too. But......you know what they say about blind squirrels......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 The nailed. The NAM has no strengths. It's a model designed to always be wrong, so one can know what's not going to happen. I don't know how it performs in the plains....Is it illogical that a model might be more skilled in the means in another region with a different kind of event? I'll be sure to use it since it performed well in one discrete May snowstorm in a region nowhere close to the mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Haha! That's what I always thought too. But......you know what they say about blind squirrels......... I might use it more next winter...I heard it performed really well with the timing of a front in California Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 I don't know how it performs in the plains....Is it illogical that a model might be more skilled in the means in another region with a different kind of event? I'll be sure to use it since it performed well in one discrete May snowstorm in a region nowhere close to the mid-Atlantic I don't care if you use it or not. That's really up to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 I don't care if you use it or not. That's really up to you. I ignore it because I am a much better forecaster without it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Excuse me but is this the place where I can find out if there are any tornado chances for Landover Md over the next three weeks???????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Excuse me but is this the place where I can find out if there are any tornado chances for Landover Md over the next three weeks???????? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 smh @ May snow anywhere under 5000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 flat land... check satellite dish... check barn... check yokel with push mower in snow storm... check All the key features of the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 6, 2013 Author Share Posted May 6, 2013 It will be interesting to see what CPC says with its May ENSO update this week. So far every outlook gives the greatest odds of another neutral year. At this point more dynamical models point towards cooling into the fall vs warming. Latest tri-monthly came in @ -.4. Not much history to go off of but comparing the last 3 tri-monthlies to other similar years points towards a best case weak nino in the 1.0 range. 06-07 & 68-69 managed to do it. 01-02 is in the mix as well from an enso standpoint. That was a neutral winter after 3 ninas in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 It will be interesting to see what CPC says with its May ENSO update this week. So far every outlook gives the greatest odds of another neutral year. At this point more dynamical models point towards cooling into the fall vs warming. Latest tri-monthly came in @ -.4. Not much history to go off of but comparing the last 3 tri-monthlies to other similar years points towards a best case weak nino in the 1.0 range. 06-07 & 68-69 managed to do it. 01-02 is in the mix as well from an enso standpoint. That was a neutral winter after 3 ninas in a row. we need a Harri-Kari emoticon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 we need a Harri-Kari emoticon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakiri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 May ENSO update from CPC came out yesterday. The very short version is that all models are still pointing towards neutral down the road. But CPC says its a low confidence forecast because spring is a bad time to predict long lead enso conditions. We have time but unless things start looking up by mid july we'll probably have to accept the fact that another neutral year is on the way and deal with it. Latest 3.4 trimonthly can in @ -0.4. The only Nino's I see on record that came on the heels of similar trimonthlies ended up weak in the 1.0 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Screw my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Enso conditions aren't the absolute factor. They may be a heavy player, but snowfall is very sensitive to the smallest of factors. We were an eyelash from a BIG winter in 10-11. If I remember, that was a Nina? There are lots of drawbacks to looking way ahead and very little to be gained, other than the fun of curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 There are lots of drawbacks to looking way ahead and very little to be gained, other than the fun of curiosity. There is very much to be gained. We know exactly when to put Ji on suicide watch. Gotta protect our most amusing winter poster. I think my post might have put his finger on the cancel button. Good thing there is an un-cancel cancel button and a cancel un-cancel cancel un-cancel button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 There is very much to be gained. We know exactly when to put Ji on suicide watch. Gotta protect our most amusing winter poster. I think my post might have put his finger on the cancel button. Good thing there is an un-cancel cancel button and a cancel un-cancel cancel un-cancel button. LOL. If we cancel now, we can always restart it in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 A little too far east but plenty of time to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 A little too far east but plenty of time to adjust. dec5th.JPG Better tracking this 7 months in advance than severe or 90's and humid. Please keep us posted every 6 hours . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Can't believe how silent this thread has been since the severe wx guys hightailed it west. Frost advisories for parts of NW Michigan tonight. Nice and late in the year for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Screw my life Well friends... Following the wintertime IOSD switch from positive to negative and now the development of a solid -IOD, the tropical forcing cannot get established correctly to produce the WWB needed for an El Niño. We are going to go at least another month of this (mean uplift in traditional La Niña positioning around 120E and waves either enhancing this or somewhat weakening it but not capable of warming ENSO on their own). Also, the solar/QBO aspect favors cooling overall for the next month or so. It is quite possible La Niña will try to fight back. Solar maximum anticipated this year, aiding in warming of the subsidence branch of the Hadley Cells in the Pacific and possibly the equatorial regions. The same can be said with the QBO wave. These things may change in time for winter, but by that point, it may be too late for anything other than a weak-mod La Niña or cold neutral. It does appear that things will probably head toward El Niño next year, assuming the QBO-solar-ENSO system plays out even remotely close to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Well friends... Following the wintertime IOSD switch from positive to negative and now the development of a solid -IOD, the tropical forcing cannot get established correctly to produce the WWB needed for an El Niño. We are going to go at least another month of this (mean uplift in traditional La Niña positioning around 120E and waves either enhancing this or somewhat weakening it but not capable of warming ENSO on their own). Also, the solar/QBO aspect favors cooling overall for the next month or so. It is quite possible La Niña will try to fight back. Solar maximum anticipated this year, aiding in warming of the subsidence branch of the Hadley Cells in the Pacific and possibly the equatorial regions. The same can be said with the QBO wave. These things may change in time for winter, but by that point, it may be too late for anything other than a weak-mod La Niña or cold neutral. It does appear that things will probably head toward El Niño next year, assuming the QBO-solar-ENSO system plays out even remotely close to expectations. ughhh boy... I guess JI was bound to call one right 6 months before winter begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 HM, there really has been no sign of Nino conditions returning since last summer before the rug came out and the odds seem to be increasingly stacked against it. Your post is disheartening of course but far from unexpected. It is what it is. I suppose we're simply at the mercy of the dominant longwave patterns that will set up and accept the fact that there will be a bias for another year of storms that favor a track n&w of the MA. I can pick the glass half full side (like I always do. lol) and say that we did have a great 8 week stretch of a lw pattern that would have produced wonderfully if it had happened just a month or 2 earlier. We also had a nice period of extended cold prior to that after the awful pac finally broke down. Winter existed quite well in the MA last year but the ingredients didn't want to work in harmony. Even if we end up with identical enso conditions this year there is no reason to write anything off. The winter may not be laden with juicy miller A's and copious cold but that rarely happens anyway in these parts. The PDO is definitely in an overall neg regime but it has been relaxing since last fall. The index is basically neutral as of the end of April. I suppose there is an outside chance the phase goes positive during the important months coming up this fall and that could be helpful. I guess there won't be much to talk about this summer and reasonable expectations for the upcoming winter will be below normal snow and within a degree or 2 of normal for temps for djf. Regardless of ENSO we seem to get some ao/nao love every winter lately. It can't possibly be as bad as it has been in the snow department the last couple years can it? LOLOL. yes it can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 LOL at trusting anything more than the CFS 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 As long as it isn't another La Niña, I'm okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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