Wonderdog Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 If that day 10 possibility tracks just a little bit more to our south and bombs off near Hatteras we could be in business. If that scenario occurs could the storm produce some of its own cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 This weekend is still uncertain. There's a chance it could bring down some pretty chilly air. It could but it would have to be a perfect timing thing. Cold shots will only have 2-3 day staying power until something gets in the way of progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It could but it would have to be a perfect timing thing. Cold shots will only have 2-3 day staying power until something gets in the way of progressive flow. True. On the enso note, Mitch's post got me thinking. We are in somewhat uncharted territory with neutral/neutral following Nina. It's hard to find too many historical years that really match up well to that. I think the early 60's are close. But what I was thinking about is how winter might react with a slowly rising value. The latest forecast plumes I've seen have a regression curve that is slightly upward. Rising enso numbers from Nov thru March are rare. I wonder what role that might play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 UVV, the paranoid side of me after recent years has me cautious about a false signal. Matt already commented on not forgetting that. We really need something to buckle the flow and get some blockiness going on going into Dec or we can easily step back into an rPNA with no block and heights all pumped up around here. Every day that goes by keeps confidence growing of a potential "real" early season pattern but it's all on paper lol. The Pac seems to want to be out friend instead of our enemy this year so far but we'll need more help than that until we get later into Dec. Then climo can catch up Both the GFS and Euro seem consistent with developing a very nice looking -EPO/+PNA combo going into the holiday week. The Atlantic side of things still looks progressive, which probably means cold shots will be 2-3 days and then a mild-up and then another cool down. And the pattern seems to be getting more active. So, I think we're going to get a few swings at the plate starting this weekend. Have to see how persistent this Pacific pattern is see if we can time it with a favorable Atlantic and get something together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Both the GFS and Euro seem consistent with developing a very nice looking -EPO/+PNA combo going into the holiday week. The Atlantic side of things still looks progressive, which probably means cold shots will be 2-3 days and then a mild-up and then another cool down. And the pattern seems to be getting more active. So, I think we're going to get a few swings at the plate starting this weekend. Have to see how persistent this Pacific pattern is see if we can time it with a favorable Atlantic and get something together. The Pacific side looks good and should deliver some cold air. The atlantic remains troubling but some members do pop a negative AO and NAO. However, the superensemble mean shows the big pna ridge over the west but then has strongly negative heights across Baffin Island and Greenland which would keep things progressive. That also makes if tough to get split flow over the east, it can happen but it's not easy to get. Of course the D+11 superens mean is a mean of 5 days so it will lack detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It could but it would have to be a perfect timing thing. Cold shots will only have 2-3 day staying power until something gets in the way of progressive flow. One positive is that the cold shot are significant in terms of negative departures, they are not weak Pacific origin fronts that only drop us to a few normal days then back to 5 or 6 days well above average. Also the cold fronts are performing as advertised from a week out and not fizzling by the time they get to us. I have no idea if this means anything but will find out soon enough. Maybe we can dive into a pattern that started right around Thanksgiving and lasted through mid December back in 2005 minus the hideous reversal the pretty much lasted through the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 The Pacific side looks good and should deliver some cold air. The atlantic remains troubling but some members do pop a negative AO and NAO. However, the superensemble mean shows the big pna ridge over the west but then has strongly negative heights across Baffin Island and Greenland which would keep things progressive. That also makes if tough to get split flow over the east, it can happen but it's not easy to get. Of course the D+11 superens mean is a mean of 5 days so it will lack detail. A flawed pattern in Nov is pretty hard to overcome I suppose. We need all 8 cylinders firing at our latitude to have any real shot. I would be stoked to watch an hour of mod snow even if it melts on contact. Any hunches for the first 10 days of Dec? I kinda want to believe what I see and think but I'm to scarred to accept the fact that we could be in for a solid start. At least in the temps dept anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 A flawed pattern in Nov is pretty hard to overcome I suppose. We need all 8 cylinders firing at our latitude to have any real shot. I would be stoked to watch an hour of mod snow even if it melts on contact. Any hunches for the first 10 days of Dec? I kinda want to believe what I see and think but I'm to scarred to accept the fact that we could be in for a solid start. At least in the temps dept anyways. I don't have any real feeling for 1st 10 days of Dec. I think November ends cooler than normal but when I look at the MJO in the circle of death and the GWO I don't see the clear indication that we go into a nino like split flow. The D=11 superens mean continues to forecast a positive PNA look but with the atlantic not looking that great, not terrible but progressive. I don't like that the AO and NOA were so strongly positive as to me it suggests that after the coming relaxation, the positive AO will probably come back. Still, I proclaim no skill at seasonal forecasting and probably have not looked as closely at the data as you, Don Sutherland, HM and a host of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Thanks Wes. I don't like the progressive flow either even though the pac has been able to deliver so far. Luck will run out there at some point. The +AO seems to be running a pretty typical 30-45 regime. It does appear likely at this point to tank but tanking back to near neutral isn't really a big deal. Looking at all the past Nov AO data I have there seem to be 2 camps with the camp having the +AO reload having more campers than the years where it flips. A quick reload would definitely imply another 30+ day period of being in positive territory. Not a good way to spend December at all. Yea, some will argue that last year's big -ao Dec was warm because the pac stunk so a +ao can be cold if the pac cooperates. All that says to me is we get cold behind rainy cutters and fronts and warm up for the next one.Whooopeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Discuss I saw your comments also from this weekend...3.4 is warming. I don't know if it is noise or not...Someone else can maybe comment on that...whether it is temporary....Region 4 has been warm, and often is warm in neutral years...almost all of the warmth is west of the dateline..I don't entirely know the consequence of that but my guess is it supports an aleutian ridge...So the questions are whether the water west of the dateline can propogate east...whether 3.4 will continue warming on its own....whether the subsurface water(there are some warm pools) will make its way up (had a convo with DT about this)...and what would be the effect if 3.4 does in fact warm through the winter...There are 3 decent examples of late warming from a neutral state...52-53, 79-80, 92-93....2 of 3 were cold in Feb/MAR and all 3 had March snowstorms...I don't think they are great matches for various reasons...we were in more of a nino state going into all 3 winters, but we are kind of in uncharted territory this winter, which is why outlooks should be viewed with more skepticism than usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I saw your comments also from this weekend...3.4 is warming. I don't know if it is noise or not...Someone else can maybe comment on that...whether it is temporary....Region 4 has been warm, and often is warm in neutral years...almost all of the warmth is west of the dateline..I don't entirely know the consequence of that but my guess is it supports an aleutian ridge...So the questions are whether the water west of the dateline can propogate east...whether 3.4 will continue warming on its own....whether the subsurface water(there are some warm pools) will make its way up (had a convo with DT about this)...and what would be the effect if 3.4 does in fact warm through the winter...There are 3 decent examples of late warming from a neutral state...52-53, 79-80, 92-93....2 of 3 were cold in Feb/MAR and all 3 had March snowstorms...I don't think they are great matches for various reasons...we were in more of a nino state going into all 3 winters, but we are kind of in uncharted territory this winter, which is why outlooks should be viewed with more skepticism than usual... I posted about those yesterday as well Matt although I didn't list them.I think there's one more, 85-86 maybe? It is rare indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I posted about those yesterday as well Matt although I didn't list them.I think there's one more, 85-86 maybe? It is rare indeed. sorry,.,just saw your post which I duplicated to some extent....85-86 was neg neutral for the whole winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I saw your comments also from this weekend...3.4 is warming. I don't know if it is noise or not...Someone else can maybe comment on that...whether it is temporary....Region 4 has been warm, and often is warm in neutral years...almost all of the warmth is west of the dateline..I don't entirely know the consequence of that but my guess is it supports an aleutian ridge...So the questions are whether the water west of the dateline can propogate east...whether 3.4 will continue warming on its own....whether the subsurface water(there are some warm pools) will make its way up (had a convo with DT about this)...and what would be the effect if 3.4 does in fact warm through the winter...There are 3 decent examples of late warming from a neutral state...52-53, 79-80, 92-93....2 of 3 were cold in Feb/MAR and all 3 had March snowstorms...I don't think they are great matches for various reasons...we were in more of a nino state going into all 3 winters, but we are kind of in uncharted territory this winter, which is why outlooks should be viewed with more skepticism than usual... Oh...92-93 had a March snowstorm? Was it any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Oh...92-93 had a March snowstorm? Was it any good? It was okay I believe... someone told me we only got like 8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 sorry,.,just saw your post which I duplicated to some extent....85-86 was neg neutral for the whole winter Oh not to worry. I don't even know if there's anything there, but I was just looking for years with a rising enso during winter. I was wrong about 85-86. It was 86-87 that had a slowly rising enso through winter. By my count, there's only 4 such cases since 1950. Of note, by the records I have (which are incomplete btw), none appear to be a good snow winter in Winchester. Of course, the data is complete so you have to factor that it as well. Of course, the Superstorm does show up in the snow stats. I'd sacrifice the entire winter to relive the Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Oh...92-93 had a March snowstorm? Was it any good? It made the NESIS scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It made the NESIS scale I think it created it didn't it? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 the 93 storm was not great for DCA but then again what storm is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 the 93 storm was not great for DCA but then again what storm is Washington-Jefferson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Washington-Jefferson Joe and Roy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Can someone just promise our area sees one nemo this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Can someone just promise our area sees one nemo this winter? Word is there's one in the banter thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If you wanted to be a long range legend in dc just forecast less then 10" in any Nina, 8-15" in any neutral or raging niño and above avg snow in any other niño. You will be right 90%. This year with so many conflicting signals may be that 10% that doesn't work out but I wouldn't put money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If you wanted to be a long range legend in dc just forecast less then 10" in any Nina, 8-15" in any neutral or raging niño and above avg snow in any other niño. You will be right 90%. This year with so many conflicting signals may be that 10% that doesn't work out but I wouldn't put money on it. Does 8-15" really work as a range for a raging nino for DC? I'm pretty sure it doesn't. Either DC gets the three-storm winter to push well above average or ends up in bottom of the heap, like 0.1" totals. But, maybe that's just the more recent trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If you wanted to be a long range legend in dc just forecast less then 10" in any Nina, 8-15" in any neutral or raging niño and above avg snow in any other niño. You will be right 90%. This year with so many conflicting signals may be that 10% that doesn't work out but I wouldn't put money on it. your ranges don't really work at all, other than the overarching idea that we suck at snow, which is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I don't think this can do anything but bad for us. Why must the sun wake up now of all times of the year. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html p.s. that is one ugly sun spot staring straight at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I don't think this can do anything but bad for us. Why must the sun wake up now of all times of the year. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html p.s. that is one ugly sun spot staring straight at us Not directed at you Mitch, but I wonder if we don't over do the analysis just a bit. We worry so much we can't hardly enjoy what we do get. Not like we can change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Not directed at you Mitch, but I wonder if we don't over do the analysis just a bit. We worry so much we can't hardly enjoy what we do get. Not like we can change it. well, HM has made a few comments re the sun and how too much activity could really mess things up around the Pole, so that is why I mention it as far as over analyzing, we all suffer from OCD around here so I plead guilty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Oh not to worry. I don't even know if there's anything there, but I was just looking for years with a rising enso during winter. I was wrong about 85-86. It was 86-87 that had a slowly rising enso through winter. By my count, there's only 4 such cases since 1950. Of note, by the records I have (which are incomplete btw), none appear to be a good snow winter in Winchester. Of course, the data is complete so you have to factor that it as well. Of course, the Superstorm does show up in the snow stats. I'd sacrifice the entire winter to relive the Superstorm. 86-87 was a pretty darn good winter. 3 storms over 12", including 12 and 15" storms only days apart and two solid weeks of snow cover afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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