2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[Bob Chill]

Not sure about Masco's record but saying with confidence that we'll have an active stj is pushing it imho. Split flow at times? Yes, but saying a real active southern stream with moisture from the pac into TX goes against some of what has been discussed at length. 

 

I haven't heard that + atl sst's causes a -nao dominant winter but I suppose it's possible. I do agree with the thermal gradient part but a warm atl can screw up 925's down to the surface from the fall line east. Well, assuming we get a coastal. 

 

I do agree with variability being prevalent with opportunity. We'll see where the chips fall and I hope Masco nails it. 

[Ian]

 

 

that's all i got

[Ian]

Add another seasonal outlook to the chilly and snowy camp.  Going below normal temps with a very cold February and average to slightly above average snow.  I don't follow Mike Masco, anyone know his track record? 

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/is-baltimore-destined-for-a-severe-winter-season

 

DT's winter forecast comes out tomorrow.  He's been hinting for awhile he's favoring something like this outlook. 

 

Matt's due for a bust.  The good news is we all win in that case..

[snow.]

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that's all i got

 

love the chart...illustrates how winters we think sucked are in the top 10

[snow.]

Matt's due for a bust.  The good news is we all win in that case..

 

I hope it is a snow bust...and not just a temp bust...cold and 8" isn't going to make anyone too thrilled

[gymengineer]

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that's all i got

Well, two things that stand out from these graphs to me:

 

1) The last 30 seasons show the feast/famine cycle very clearly for DCA. I've posted data that disputes the feast/famine cycle for the N and W suburbs (a lot more average seasons outside of the beltway compared to DC proper), but still the first graph is striking in how it differs from the second one. Taking all of DC winters, there a fairly gradual slope down once you get past the historic seasons so that you get a sizable percent of the seasons totaling over 20". But in the past 30 seasons, you're either over 30" or under 16" (except for 87/88 with its Veteran's Day fluke that managed to max out somewhat near DCA).

 

2) February 1986 through January 1988 was a pretty special and maybe under-appreciated multi-season stretch for snow-lovers in the DC region. 

[Bob Chill]

Gym, one thing about the last 10+ years is that there has been plenty of suspect measurements at DCA. Enough to make a noticeable impact on the stats. It's been feast or famine in some ways but there is some slush on the low end as well. I personally don't think dca'a data is representative of the area even within just 5 miles but maybe my memory is incorrect.

The 86-88 stretch was awesome. I was in high school ans have fond memories of bumper skiing in powder conditions on multiple occasions. Those years were true winter in these parts. Loved them.

[Ji]

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that's all i got

[Ji]

We suck at 20-30

[Ian]

Here's Dulles

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not sure about Masco's record but saying with confidence that we'll have an active stj is pushing it imho. Split flow at times? Yes, but saying a real active southern stream with moisture from the pac into TX goes against some of what has been discussed at length.

I haven't heard that + atl sst's causes a -nao dominant winter but I suppose it's possible. I do agree with the thermal gradient part but a warm atl can screw up 925's down to the surface from the fall line east. Well, assuming we get a coastal.

I do agree with variability being prevalent with opportunity. We'll see where the chips fall and I hope Masco nails it.

This is where I need some tutoring. It doesn't have to be a southern stream from the pacific into Texas does it? Just a flow that doesn't cut off the gulf? Can't a disturbance in the flow cause low pressure development in the gulf or se? Just need a trough deep enough and west enough to allow it to happen? Help.

[Bob Chill]

This is where I need some tutoring. It doesn't have to be a southern stream from the pacific into Texas does it? Just a flow that doesn't cut off the gulf? Can't a disturbance in the flow cause low pressure development in the gulf or se? Just need a trough deep enough and west enough to allow it to happen? Help.

We can phase something and have the gulf "open for business" without an active stj but it's awful hard to get a low tracking across the desert sw into tx without one. Having a stj feeds systems tracking across the desert sw first before tapping the gulf.

Split flow allows for similar storms though. Having moisture and energy undercutting a ridge off the coast of CA meeting up with energy diving out of Canada can produce big storms but it's not be necessarily a product of an active stj. These events require more precise timing so the odds are lowered.

[Ian]

http://www.wxrisk.com/2013/11/signs-of-pattern-change-late-nov-early-dec-growing/

[wxmeddler]

DT is being DT;  taking a hit on AmWx specifically while praising WxSouth and JB.

[snow.]

http://www.wxrisk.com/2013/11/signs-of-pattern-change-late-nov-early-dec-growing/

 

I've been chatting with him and he is pretty convincing...I think we are all being too myopic...and we will learn something in hindsight...these seasonal outlooks should be improving in the means as we do more and more of them...everyone seems to have found a "magic bullet" to some extent...that isn't meant to be an insult but we all have our favorite pet clues...but there are so many variables...I'm infatuated with ENSO, and that could screw me over...

[Bob Chill]

I've been chatting with him and he is pretty convincing...I think we are all being too myopic...and we will learn something in hindsight...these seasonal outlooks should be improving in the means as we do more and more of them...everyone seems to have found a "magic bullet" to some extent...that isn't meant to be an insult but we all have our favorite pet clues...but there are so many variables...I'm infatuated with ENSO, and that could screw me over...

Seasonal forecasting is playing odds and spreads in many ways. Hedging on the primary forces or the "favorites" is the only way to go to win more often than lose. But underdogs surprise. No way around that. But betting exclusively on the underdog every time is a losing proposition. So what can you do?

[snow.]

Seasonal forecasting is playing odds and spreads in many ways. Hedging on the primary forces or the "favorites" is the only way to go to win more often than lose. But underdogs surprise. No way around that. But betting exclusively on the underdog every time is a losing proposition. So what can you do?

 

move to Valdez AK

[H2O]

DT is being DT;  taking a hit on AmWx specifically while praising WxSouth and JB.

 

praising JB is like giving your dog a milkbone after he craps on the carpet.  I'm not sure what DT is looking at as far as Amwx.  I see a fair number of cautious outlooks that seem warranted based on the muddled picture.  We've been in a +EPO phase for a while and until that changes there is no reason to go nuts over anything.  other factors weigh into it as well but NOT swinging for the fences looks to be a better guesstimate.

[HeatMiser]

Well, JB's odds are 1 right call every every 10 seasons??  So he is about due at this point.

 

The key to why we might get serious cold this winter is because you DON'T have all the forecasters on one side of the boat.  And very few initiated forecasts for significant blocking.  I recall winter 11-12 where every private MET out there had ultra-cold, blocking winter.  Of course, the -NAO never showed up and we had to break out the summer clothes in december.

[toronto blizzard]

praising JB is like giving your dog a milkbone after he craps on the carpet. I'm not sure what DT is looking at as far as Amwx. I see a fair number of cautious outlooks that seem warranted based on the muddled picture. We've been in a +EPO phase for a while and until that changes there is no reason to go nuts over anything. other factors weigh into it as well but NOT swinging for the fences looks to be a better guesstimate.

We haven't been in a +EPO phase at all

[H2O]

We haven't been in a +EPO phase at all

 

oops.  Hit the wrong button.  Thanks for catching that

[usedtobe]

DT is being DT;  taking a hit on AmWx specifically while praising WxSouth and JB.

Well here's what he said last year when I wrote an article entitled.

 

History does not support a terribly snowy winter in Washington, D.C.

DT response is given below. 

 

"I don't want the go off on a rant here but I have got to say something. This is one of my pet peeves with regard to forecasting in general and seasonal forecasting in particular.  

 

When you think about it statistically there is NEVER any justification to forecast ANY unusual or unlikely weather events because ...well they are not "likely" to happen . 

 

Statistically speaking Sandy never hits New Jersey Coast. A intense large hurricane like that in late October making 75 degree LEFT turn into the New Jersey Coast is so statistically unlikely to happen ...or ever happen agian... ( based upon Hurrricane history and climatology) that there is no possible reason or justification for a meteorologist to ever forecast an event like Sandy . 

 

Indeed in the days leading up to Sandy there were a lot of meteorologist who expressed astonishment and skepticism that such a track was even remotely possible. And in EVERY one of these cases the primaries and why these forecasters rejected the idea of sandy making a left hook into New Jersey was that it was to statistically unlikely to happen 

 

Statistically Washington, DC is not going to get two blizzards back to back four days apart. But it is exactly what happened three winters ago. 

Statistically Katrina does not hit New Orleans and do that sort of damage.  

Statistically there is " reason" for anyone to forecast the incredible heat wave and drought during the Summer of 2012 over the Plains and the Midwest nor do we see that monster Derecho that slammed Maryland and Virginia on June 29, 2012. 

 

I am not against any sort of statistical analysis . That is of course an integral part of science. And I am a huge fan of somebody like Nate silver for example. 

 

But with respect to weather forecasting and especially weather forecasting of major events ... over reliance n statistics can lead to bigger problems . Let me be perfectly clear that in my comments here I am NOT at all referring to Wes.  

 

BUT it has been my experience that you show me somebody who is using statistics to to say that something is unlikely to happen as an excuse not to make the forecast ... and I will show you someone looking for an excuse." 

 

Of course, this year he could be right but those pesky stats argue that unless we somehow pop a predominately negative AO, this winter will again be one with less snow than normal.  The last 7 neutral years have not been kind to us.  That's certainly not truly statistically signficant but the graph of the 30 most recent winters argues for only going heavy during a nino year cause that's when you have a 50% chance of being right. 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Isn't all analog forecasting a measure of statistics in a way?  I think the statistics give you a pretty good first guess, which can then be fine-tuned.  

 

Well, DT went cold and snowy for last winter, didn't he?  I think he changed his tune by January if I recall, only for March to be cold and snowy.  

[snow.]

I chatted with him last night, and he is super focused on QBO progression....so I don't know...this is a tough winter...I have never been too focused on QBO beyond a quick look though maybe I should...I do pay some attention to it...in 2009 i said the -QBO/Solar min combo would lead to sig blocking...because there is a def correlation there...but it has become a cornerstone for DT....he also thinks we may get this late developing Nino based on the sub surface....

 

"SUMMARY not a mild winter. 

DEC colder than Nornal SOME snow chances 
JAN Normal maybe eveb slightly above Normal
FEB colderthan Normla good snow chances which will last into March and delayed spring

IF weal el ninoe develops late FEB & MARCH 2014 could be historic

analog winters 1957-58 1959-60 1969-70 1995-96 200-03 2006-07.. Most of those selected winters were BIG bad winters but SOME of those were el nino winters. WE begin the winter NEUTRAL but may move into Weak El Nino late..."

[snow.]

he basically told me cold with normal snow...

[Bob Chill]

Isn't all analog forecasting a measure of statistics in a way? I think the statistics give you a pretty good first guess, which can then be fine-tuned.

Well, DT went cold and snowy for last winter, didn't he? I think he changed his tune by January if I recall, only for March to be cold and snowy.

Past performance to predict future results right? You can't forge a new path every year and be a human supercomputer. Even if you think you are one. Heck, the most advanced weather models in the world (far beyond what a human can do) lose skill in a week let alone a month or months.

Sometimes the signals are clear and make a seasonal forecast easier than another but this is definitely not one of those years. At least in my opinion. Even when things seem kinda clear there are plenty of curve balls that let weather do what it does best...what it wants regardless of what we think it should do.

Seasonals get muddy as well because weather doesn't know calendar days. Sometimes patterns come later/earlier stay longer/shorter. A 30 day period is awful short. Having just one week go the other way can ruin temp/snowfall in many cases. But then someone like DT will say "I nailed it but was a week late and it changed the stats for the month but i was spot on".

I find it funny that DT feels the need to dig at Amwx anyway. He says he doesn't care about this board anymore but he cares very much and pays plenty of attention. He's one of those guys who takes pleasure in someone who's out of favor fail. Kinda like me loving when Dallas loses even when it means nothing to my sorry team's chances.

[WxMan1]

Hey, no more talk about how bad my Cowboys suck!

(Good anaology though!)

[smokeybandit]

Normal snow would seem like a constant blizzard compared to the past couple winters.

[usedtobe]

We haven't been in a +EPO phase at all

But we have been in a negative PNA.  That and a positive AO make it tough to get snow.  Both could and probably will change during the year but......even that doesn't guarantee a good winter. 

[usedtobe]

I guess the semi good new is that the ens forecasts of the AO are for it to drop quite a bit with most members taking it negative in the 14 day range.  The pattern on the superens mean looks less good, A nice negative EPO look but lots of negative heights over Canada. looks good maybe for the northern tier but not so good south of 40 (at least to me).