2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Is it too early to start a thread for winter of 14-15?

Latest CPC enso discussion:

enso.JPG

Next year is gonna be ROCKIN'!

Wonder if there's any benefit to a slowly rising status through the winter months of this winter. You can see it plainly on that graph. Last year we were falling through the winter if memory serves.

[snow.]

Wonder if there's any benefit to a slowly rising status through the winter months of this winter. You can see it plainly on that graph. Last year we were falling through the winter if memory serves.

 

I am guilty of it too, but I think we get way too lost in indices in this area, rather than results.  We are clearly a snow board and not a cold board...I like cold and you do too, but this board doesnt get amped up when it is dry with a high of 34.  We care about snow...I highly doubt this winter is going to be a 2001-02 or 2011-12....but we are going to get below average snow, especially in DC metro...so to me it makes more sense to recalibrate what has to happen to make us happy or to at least make us not want to put us on suicide watch.  We aren't going to magically have a southern stream this winter.  And that is the single most important factor for us in meeting or exceeding climo.    It isn't going to happen.  And we aren't going to get as much snow as the models give us...they are biased outside of 48-72 hours toward giving us way more snow than we verify.  So what is the metric to be pleased given that.  Of course it is subjective.  So we will all differ.  That said my least favorite talking point is "anything can happen, the atmosphere is chaotic"..."we never know when the big storm might come."  "It just takes one massive blizzard to make winter!!".  we aren't magically going to get a 12-18"+ storm, and when the models show it they will be wrong. If that is always what we are chasing, we will be miserable this winter.  

[nw baltimore wx]

I am guilty of it too, but I think we get way too lost in indices in this area, rather than results.  We are clearly a snow board and not a cold board...I like cold and you do too, but this board doesnt get amped up when it is dry with a high of 34.  We care about snow...I highly doubt this winter is going to be a 2001-02 or 2011-12....but we are going to get below average snow, especially in DC metro...so to me it makes more sense to recalibrate what has to happen to make us happy or to at least make us not want to put us on suicide watch.  We aren't going to magically have a southern stream this winter.  And that is the single most important factor for us in meeting or exceeding climo.    It isn't going to happen.  And we aren't going to get as much snow as the models give us...they are biased outside of 48-72 hours toward giving us way more snow than we verify.  So what is the metric to be pleased given that.  Of course it is subjective.  So we will all differ.  That said my least favorite talking point is "anything can happen, the atmosphere is chaotic"..."we never know when the big storm might come."  "It just takes one massive blizzard to make winter!!".  we aren't magically going to get a 12-18"+ storm, and when the models show it they will be wrong. If that is always what we are chasing, we will be miserable this winter.  

 

It's not a popular position, but I like cold and dry in the winter over warm and dry provided the cold is lasting.  I can remember a few winters of the 70's that were like that and we made plenty of memories playing bad hockey on frozen ponds.  

 

Give me a couple of weeks of being Bobby Orr again and I'd be happy. 

[Fozz]

It's not a popular position, but I like cold and dry in the winter over warm and dry provided the cold is lasting.  I can remember a few winters of the 70's that were like that and we made plenty of memories playing bad hockey on frozen ponds.  

 

Give me a couple of weeks of being Bobby Orr again and I'd be happy. 

 

Also with cold and dry winters, you can go skiing, snowboarding, or even snow chasing since Garrett county and the WV mountains get plenty of LES/upslope snow.

 

We have the rest of the year for 60s and 70s.

[PhineasC]

If it isn't going to snow, I hope it is at least cold and windy. I like that kind of weather in the winter. 

[WVclimo]

I am satisfied with any winter season that has no more than 15-20 of the 90 days with highs above 50. I look forward to those three months of comfortable weather the whole year.

Frequent warmth like we have had the past couple of winters makes me feel cheated more than a lack of snowfalls.

[wxdude64]

Also with cold and dry winters, you can go skiing, snowboarding, or even snow chasing since Garrett county and the WV mountains get plenty of LES/upslope snow.

 

We have the rest of the year for 60s and 70s.

Yes.

[mattie g]

Cold with no snow sucks.

[Heisy]

If its not snowing cold is only welcomed by me if there is snow on the ground, other than that I hate the cold. I do enjoy a nice cloudy and cold thanksgiving/Christmas though. 

[midatlanticweather]

I like cold! Love the feel of it! Love the cleaner air. But I also agree - just cold and dry gets boring really quick!!!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I am guilty of it too, but I think we get way too lost in indices in this area, rather than results.  We are clearly a snow board and not a cold board...I like cold and you do too, but this board doesnt get amped up when it is dry with a high of 34.  We care about snow...I highly doubt this winter is going to be a 2001-02 or 2011-12....but we are going to get below average snow, especially in DC metro...so to me it makes more sense to recalibrate what has to happen to make us happy or to at least make us not want to put us on suicide watch.  We aren't going to magically have a southern stream this winter.  And that is the single most important factor for us in meeting or exceeding climo.    It isn't going to happen.  And we aren't going to get as much snow as the models give us...they are biased outside of 48-72 hours toward giving us way more snow than we verify.  So what is the metric to be pleased given that.  Of course it is subjective.  So we will all differ.  That said my least favorite talking point is "anything can happen, the atmosphere is chaotic"..."we never know when the big storm might come."  "It just takes one massive blizzard to make winter!!".  we aren't magically going to get a 12-18"+ storm, and when the models show it they will be wrong. If that is always what we are chasing, we will be miserable this winter.  

 

Agree with this, for the most part.  It is easy to get overly caught up in what the indices are and what the forecasts of those indices show.  And yes, like most people here I certainly prefer snow with cold.  One thing that I don't like is "wasting" cold air, only to get precipitation when it warms up (which happens often here, it seems!).  With an ENSO-neutral year, I guess we're at the mercy of how the NAO shapes up.  And the Pacific, too, but even a not-so-great Pacific can deliver if the NAO is nice to us (from what I understand, anyhow).  Without an El Nino, I question whether we'll have much of a southern jet to work with.  Given all that, I'm a bit more optimistic that the DC area will more or less see "average" snowfall this winter, but probably no more.  I don't believe in saying things like "we're due!" (nor do I believe in saying "we're paying for 2009-10!"...ugh!)...weather doesn't care about that.  But a moderate event or two this winter plus some smaller amounts on the side isn't an unreasonable expectation.  By "moderate" I mean a good 4-8" or 6-10" event, something like that.  Actually getting winter storm warning criteria a couple of times would be nice.  I see what you're saying about not magically getting a 12-18" storm, but there is something to the old adage that in this area one large storm can be your entire winter average.  I don't think much of anyone on this board, in this particular sub-forum at least, is counting on a blockbuster event.  Though of course if the possibility shows up we'll surely all go nuts!  This has been discussed before, but the standard deviation around the mean has to be pretty high in these parts (particularly metro DC area); the average snowfall is almost meaningless year in and year out.  So if we get around our mean this winter, that might be a veritable rarity! ; )

 

I do miss living in northeast Ohio, where even when it's cold and dry we could always count on some great lake effect snows!

[VAsnowlvr82]

Cold with no snow sucks.

Cold with no snow > Warm with no snow

[EastCoast NPZ]

I don't care if it's 20 below.... feels great as long as the wind isn't blowing.  wind is my enemy.

[mattie g]

Cold with no snow > Warm with no snow

You people are weird.

[WinterWxLuvr]

You people are weird.

I like it cold and dry....IF.....there's snow on the ground.

As for this week, I wish it would just stay warm until Thanksgiving. Get the yard work finished and save the cold for times when snow can be meaningful and lasting.

[nflwxman]

Agree with this, for the most part.  It is easy to get overly caught up in what the indices are and what the forecasts of those indices show.  And yes, like most people here I certainly prefer snow with cold.  One thing that I don't like is "wasting" cold air, only to get precipitation when it warms up (which happens often here, it seems!).  With an ENSO-neutral year, I guess we're at the mercy of how the NAO shapes up.  And the Pacific, too, but even a not-so-great Pacific can deliver if the NAO is nice to us (from what I understand, anyhow).  Without an El Nino, I question whether we'll have much of a southern jet to work with.  Given all that, I'm a bit more optimistic that the DC area will more or less see "average" snowfall this winter, but probably no more.  I don't believe in saying things like "we're due!" (nor do I believe in saying "we're paying for 2009-10!"...ugh!)...weather doesn't care about that.  But a moderate event or two this winter plus some smaller amounts on the side isn't an unreasonable expectation.  By "moderate" I mean a good 4-8" or 6-10" event, something like that.  Actually getting winter storm warning criteria a couple of times would be nice.  I see what you're saying about not magically getting a 12-18" storm, but there is something to the old adage that in this area one large storm can be your entire winter average.  I don't think much of anyone on this board, in this particular sub-forum at least, is counting on a blockbuster event.  Though of course if the possibility shows up we'll surely all go nuts!  This has been discussed before, but the standard deviation around the mean has to be pretty high in these parts (particularly metro DC area); the average snowfall is almost meaningless year in and year out.  So if we get around our mean this winter, that might be a veritable rarity! ; )

 

I do miss living in northeast Ohio, where even when it's cold and dry we could always count on some great lake effect snows!

 

The chances of a blockbuster event are slimmer this year, no doubt. BUT they were last year as well.  Here in CHO we beat climo by about 40% (our snowfall normal is about even with IAD, I believe) last year.  It's not like the indices were much better with a fading ENSO warm period for southern stream dominance.  The pacific was also a train wreck.  All it does take is one or two "fluke" events to make a decent winter and a little bit of luck. Proof is down here for the last 2 winters, not a much different climate than DC, really.

[Bob Chill]

I'm ready to make a WAG for Dec.

 

Temps -1 to -2. DCA 2", IAD/BWI 3-4". 

[WxUSAF]

I think the look of the long term GFS ensemble means and (from what I hear from mets who have access) is the similar look in the Euro ensembles and Euro weeklies, I think there's reason to be cautiously optimistic about the general pattern heading into the beginning of December. 

[snow.]

I'm ready to make a WAG for Dec.

 

Temps -1 to -2. DCA 2", IAD/BWI 3-4". 

 

 

I think the look of the long term GFS ensemble means and (from what I hear from mets who have access) is the similar look in the Euro ensembles and Euro weeklies, I think there's reason to be cautiously optimistic about the general pattern heading into the beginning of December. 

 

 

I am real dubious of a cold december...in fact I think we could torch...the hallmark of a cold december is a block over siberia or at least north/northwest of AK....we aren't seeing that at all...in fact the opposite...Most of our cold decembers saw this feature develop in November...all I see is a lot of variability and transience showing up...which almost always means +11 days followed by -4 days followed by +9's....so we torch...if the aleutian high can get poleward into the EPO region and beyond, we could do ok in terms of cold....but the storm track will still be to our west...we could get a clipper pattern though....

[Bob Chill]

Matt, it could easily be a bad month if you like cold but there has been quite a bit of persistence irt not baking the MA for quite a few months now. Persistence doesn't always mean for the same reasons though. This summer was a story of higher lows throwing a wrench in what could have been a "cool" summer on paper. Cool and dry continental air seems to just want to get in here and a long duration SE ridge doesn't want to setup.

My hunches are based on some simple logic. Even if the high latitudes don't want to cooperate we can potentially have some luck with less common ways to deliver cooler temps. The first half of Nov is a good example. I don't think Dec will be cool door to door at all. But i do think the cooler periods will outperform the warmer ones. And this is why I think we go 1 to 2 below.

Storm track will likely stink with the bigger storms. I totally agree with that. But maybe the antecedent airmasses allow front end to get to the cities and not just 30+ miles to the n and w. This is part of my wag for measurable in our yards in Dec. Clipper type vorts are always possible as well.

We're only a couple weeks away from seeing Dec much more clearly. I'm cautiously optimistic about not having a mega fail month.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

The chances of a blockbuster event are slimmer this year, no doubt. BUT they were last year as well.  Here in CHO we beat climo by about 40% (our snowfall normal is about even with IAD, I believe) last year.  It's not like the indices were much better with a fading ENSO warm period for southern stream dominance.  The pacific was also a train wreck.  All it does take is one or two "fluke" events to make a decent winter and a little bit of luck. Proof is down here for the last 2 winters, not a much different climate than DC, really.

 

Yeah, I think we're more or less on the same page here in what we're thinking.  As I said, nobody is thinking seriously that we'll get a blockbuster event this winter, but as you say it's no worse a possibility than it was last year.  And in both cases, probably better odds than the one previous to that (2011-12, when both the Pacific and NAO were dual train wrecks for us!!).  Funny, but the other day I looked back at DCA's monthly records for last winter, and had completely forgotten how warm Dec-Jan 2012-13 were; in fact, that period was remarkably similar to Dec-Jan 2011-12!  I was surprised it was that warm, because I mostly just remember the one very cold week around mid-January when we got clippered to death with a few dustings of snow.  Then Feb was a hair below normal which spared us being quite as awful as the year before!

 

Offhand, I think you're about right that the climo there in CHO is approximately like DC.  I think we'll all be really happy with warning-criteria snow falling once or twice this season!  Which would be once or twice more than the last 2 years combined in the DC metro! ; )

[snow.]

Matt, it could easily be a bad month if you like cold but there has been quite a bit of persistence irt not baking the MA for quite a few months now. Persistence doesn't always mean for the same reasons though. This summer was a story of higher lows throwing a wrench in what could have been a "cool" summer on paper. Cool and dry continental air seems to just want to get in here and a long duration SE ridge doesn't want to setup.

My hunches are based on some simple logic. Even if the high latitudes don't want to cooperate we can potentially have some luck with less common ways to deliver cooler temps. The first half of Nov is a good example. I don't think Dec will be cool door to door at all. But i do think the cooler periods will outperform the warmer ones. And this is why I think we go 1 to 2 below.

Storm track will likely stink with the bigger storms. I totally agree with that. But maybe the antecedent airmasses allow front end to get to the cities and not just 30+ miles to the n and w. This is part of my wag for measurable in our yards in Dec. Clipper type vorts are always possible as well.

We're only a couple weeks away from seeing Dec much more clearly. I'm cautiously optimistic about not having a mega fail month.

 

I hope you're right..my thoughts are certainly not high confidence...October was a warm month and since around the 15th we have been like a yo-yo...models are all over the place but the latest runs are already less impressive with this cold shot than they were even yesterday....our cold decembers all featured stability...I think it is very very hard for us to go below normal in December with a progressive, transient pattern...even if we have a -ao and -nao, we could still be pretty warm without a PAC delivery mechanism....everyone remembers the big -AO/-NAO in dec 2010, but it was the PAC that delivered the cold (Big Aleutian ridge extended through Siberia and into the arctic ocean) so the block could do its dirty work....we have seen what happens when we have a wretched PAC and a decent ATL in Dec....we torch....

[snow.]

Yeah, I think we're more or less on the same page here in what we're thinking.  As I said, nobody is thinking seriously that we'll get a blockbuster event this winter, but as you say it's no worse a possibility than it was last year.  And in both cases, probably better odds than the one previous to that (2011-12, when both the Pacific and NAO were dual train wrecks for us!!).  Funny, but the other day I looked back at DCA's monthly records for last winter, and had completely forgotten how warm Dec-Jan 2012-13 were; in fact, that period was remarkably similar to Dec-Jan 2011-12!  I was surprised it was that warm, because I mostly just remember the one very cold week around mid-January when we got clippered to death with a few dustings of snow.  Then Feb was a hair below normal which spared us being quite as awful as the year before!

 

Offhand, I think you're about right that the climo there in CHO is approximately like DC.  I think we'll all be really happy with warning-criteria snow falling once or twice this season!  Which would be once or twice more than the last 2 years combined in the DC metro! ; )

 

I think our ENSO state is as bad as it gets in terms of getting a big event....which is a problem because the models are going to taunt us all winter...I'd like to see a 3-4" event that doesn't happen at the end of March

[Ji]

Mike masco with a 93-94 winter repeat

[snow.]

Mike masco with a 93-94 winter repeat

 

saw that

[ravensrule]

No way:

 

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/is-baltimore-destined-for-a-severe-winter-season

 

Plus 93-94 had the most ice storms by far of any winter i remember growing up here. 

 

Edit: i looked it up we had 17 ice or snow storms that winter, we had 17.1" plus numerous ice storms.

[snow.]

No way:

 

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/is-baltimore-destined-for-a-severe-winter-season

 

Plus 93-94 had the most ice storms by far of any winter i remember growing up here. 

 

I don't really get his reasoning about a southern stream....but maybe he'll be right...

[Amped]

Yeah, I think we're more or less on the same page here in what we're thinking.  As I said, nobody is thinking seriously that we'll get a blockbuster event this winter, but as you say it's no worse a possibility than it was last year.  And in both cases, probably better odds than the one previous to that (2011-12, when both the Pacific and NAO were dual train wrecks for us!!).  Funny, but the other day I looked back at DCA's monthly records for last winter, and had completely forgotten how warm Dec-Jan 2012-13 were; in fact, that period was remarkably similar to Dec-Jan 2011-12!  I was surprised it was that warm, because I mostly just remember the one very cold week around mid-January when we got clippered to death with a few dustings of snow.  Then Feb was a hair below normal which spared us being quite as awful as the year before!

 

Offhand, I think you're about right that the climo there in CHO is approximately like DC.  I think we'll all be really happy with warning-criteria snow falling once or twice this season!  Which would be once or twice more than the last 2 years combined in the DC metro! ; )

 

 

The only way will do well is if the King in your avatar can stay where it is.

[ravensrule]

I don't really get his reasoning about a southern stream....but maybe he'll be right...

Me either plus that winter was cold, here are some stats from that winter:

 

 

* January and February were the third-coldest pairing of those months in the Northeast since 1895.

* January was Maryland's eighth-coldest January during the past 100 years.

* Snowfall in Maryland varied widely, like the Northeast in miniature. Oakland, in western Garrett County, had counted 146 inches by Friday, 3 inches short of last year's record. On the Eastern Shore, Chestertown had counted 11 inches.

* Local governments in the Baltimore area spent $10.3 million to clear roads, two to four times what they had budgeted. The state spent $23 million -- twice its budget.

* About 223,000 tons of salt and abrasives were applied in the Baltimore area. State highway crews spread 302,000 tons statewide.

* On Jan. 18, power demand across the five-state power grid from New Jersey to the District of Columbia was 8.5 percent higher than during the last winter peak in 1989.

[MDstorm]

Mike masco with a 93-94 winter repeat

Last year, he predicted colder than normal temps each month for Dec/Jan/Feb. He also predicted 24.5 inches of snow for Balto last winter.  That entire winter forecast didn't exactly work out too well.       I do agree with his idea that the upcoming winter will become colder and snowier compared to average as we progress from Dec. to Feb.

 

MDstorm