mitchnick Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I plotted DCA snow vs snowcover extent (week 43, end of October-ish) from the Rutgers snow lab. There is a very slight positive with increased Northern Hemisphere and Eurasian snowcover, but the R-squared is like 0.01. North American snowcover has absolutely no bearing, with a completely flat slope. The big 4 (78/79, 02/03, 95/96, and 09/10) all had medium or high extents, but so did the stinkers of 97/98 and 72/73 and the last two years. the stinkers you mentioned were strong NINOs, so that may explain why they are so high on the list out of the 4 decent winters, 2 were also mod NINOs; I wonder how many neutral or NINA years weere high on the list other than 78/79 and 95/96 that you already mentioned? my point (hope!) being, that high snow cover in none NINO years may have a higher correlation to decent snow in the coming winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 the stinkers you mentioned were strong NINOs, so that may explain why they are so high on the list out of the 4 decent winters, 2 were also mod NINOs; I wonder how many neutral or NINA years weere high on the list other than 78/79 and 95/96 that you already mentioned? my point (hope!) being, that high snow cover in none NINO years may have a higher correlation to decent snow in the coming winter 78-79 was a neutral following 2 ninos, in the formative years of a +PDO decadal shift 95-96 was an anomaly, but my theory is that it was weak enough and came on the heels of a 7 year warm/neutral period including a prior winter nino, so it had a serviceable southern stream..especially in February...plus it was in a strong +PDO regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Did you make the same plot for DCA temp vs. snow cover extent? I'd guess that has a higher correlation, but maybe it is also lower than I'd think. Basic Excel linear trendlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 78-79 was a neutral following 2 ninos, in the formative years of a +PDO decadal shift 95-96 was an anomaly, but my theory is that it was weak enough and came on the heels of a 7 year warm/neutral period including a prior winter nino, so it had a serviceable southern stream..especially in February...plus it was in a strong +PDO regime I've been looking at 61-62 / 62-63 to find some clues. Basically neutral / neg-neutral years during a -pdo regime and 2 years removed from the last enso event (super weak nino 58-59) but 61-63 was post warm enso so that is a net negative. The period of 61-63 had a very favorable epo/wpo setup that allowed cold in the east but the AO cooperated except for Jan of 62 but that month wasn't warm in the east due to the pac helping deliver into the middle of the country that bled east. All this talk of a +AO winter seems a bit premature IMO. Time will tell the story there. The EPO has been solid - this month. I wouldn't be mad if that becomes a predominant feature this winter. No reason to rule it out yet. Heck, there is really nothing we can rule out except for a warm enso winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Basic Excel linear trendlines dca snow scatter.JPG Neat stuff. It's cherry picking but if you look at every value in the second NA column that is between 5.00 and 6.00 our DCA snow more or less meets or exceeds climo, sometimes by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Good stuff, MN Transplant. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 LOL...the hole is back. This time on a different product http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd3.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 LOL...the hole is back. This time on a different product http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd3.gif But CFSv2 has trended colder for eastern Canada and the Northeast over the last few runs. Not sure how fruitful it is thinking about trends in the CFSv2, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 LOL...the hole is back. This time on a different product http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd3.gif December should be good if you like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 I'm dreaming of a white wet Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I'm dreaming of a white wet Christmas wetxmas.JPG look at that 2nd one down in the Gulf though I'll gladly take chances with Miller A's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 look at that 2nd one down in the Gulf though I'll gladly take chances with Miller A's not that it means anything at all but...the cfs has been showing that storm track off and on. not cutters or jumpers. The WD index is wide open too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I'm dreaming of a white wet Christmas wetxmas.JPG Setting up a 50/50 for the storm to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Not really a death knell. There were 18 snowstorms with a positive AO versus about 32 with a positive NAO. Of those 32 positive NAO events about half came with a negative AO and a positive NAO. There were 44 negative AO events. I didn't break down the 8 inch or greater events the same way. I would guess they are even more heavily weighted towards having both a negative AO and NAO but I don't know that for sure. In the graph, I'm reading the top left quadrant as indicating snowstorms of 4" or greater that occurred with a +AO and -NAO. Am I misreading it, Wes? I may be a little confused (which is far too easily done). In any case, based on what you just said above, it certainly appears as though the AO is more the driver of snow in these parts than is the NAO. Of course, there are other factors involved, but if we were just looking at the AO/NAO, then it seems that the AO is the bigger player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 i bought my kid a snowsuit, it better snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 i bought my kid a snowsuit, it better snow this winter. Since you moved to the MA equivalent of SNE, you should be good to have her in it a time or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 In 2 weeks the gfs will go out to December :openmouth: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I sure do miss the days of winter being a surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I'm dreaming of a white wet Christmas wetxmas.JPG LOL, put me about a dozen lows in that position through the winter. I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I sure do miss the days of winter being a surprise... Don't worry, it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 I'm dreaming of a white wet Christmas wetxmas.JPG [ji] the storm will create its own cold air and move up the coast. mecs [/ji] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 In the graph, I'm reading the top left quadrant as indicating snowstorms of 4" or greater that occurred with a +AO and -NAO. Am I misreading it, Wes? I may be a little confused (which is far too easily done). In any case, based on what you just said above, it certainly appears as though the AO is more the driver of snow in these parts than is the NAO. Of course, there are other factors involved, but if we were just looking at the AO/NAO, then it seems that the AO is the bigger player. The top left is a positive AO and negative NAO as you noted. There are only three such events while there were 16 or so negative AO, positive NAO events. I think the AO is even more important for the truly big events. I need to gather a list of DCA 8 inch or greater and map that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 anyone see the 12z GFS at 372-close miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Basic Excel linear trendlines dca snow scatter.JPG All the r squared values rea really low.....it doesn't look like any are much to help predicting a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 december could be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The SAI is pointing to an overall +AO this winter, and the research being done by the Italian guy who posted in the Forecasting and Discussion forum is indicating the same. It looks like we might be getting some help from the Pacific this year - or at least more than we've gotten recently - so we may have that going for us. And based on Wes's chart, we should probably be hoping for a generally +NAO, as well...which feels odd to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The SAI is pointing to an overall +AO this winter, and the research being done by the Italian guy who posted in the Forecasting and Discussion forum is indicating the same. It looks like we might be getting some help from the Pacific this year - or at least more than we've gotten recently - so we may have that going for us. And based on Wes's chart, we should probably be hoping for a generally +NAO, as well...which feels odd to say. which in stupid people terms, means what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 which in stupid people terms, means what? According to Wes's graph, we seem to have a higher # of 4"+ events when in both a +AO/NAO as opposed to a -NAO and +AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Basically if we are going to have a +AO all winter it is better that the NAO be + as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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