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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.


Bob Chill

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I don't know how it performs in the plains....Is it illogical that a model might be more skilled in the means in another region with a different kind of event?  

 

I'll be sure to use it since it performed well in one discrete May snowstorm in a region nowhere close to the mid-Atlantic

 

I don't care if you use it or not. That's really up to you. 

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It will be interesting to see what CPC says with its May ENSO update this week. So far every outlook gives the greatest odds of another neutral year. At this point more dynamical models point towards cooling into the fall vs warming. 

 

Latest tri-monthly came in @ -.4. Not much history to go off of but comparing the last 3 tri-monthlies to other similar years points towards a best case weak nino in the 1.0 range. 06-07 & 68-69 managed to do it. 

 

01-02 is in the mix as well from an enso standpoint. That was a neutral winter after 3 ninas in a row. 

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It will be interesting to see what CPC says with its May ENSO update this week. So far every outlook gives the greatest odds of another neutral year. At this point more dynamical models point towards cooling into the fall vs warming. 

 

Latest tri-monthly came in @ -.4. Not much history to go off of but comparing the last 3 tri-monthlies to other similar years points towards a best case weak nino in the 1.0 range. 06-07 & 68-69 managed to do it. 

 

01-02 is in the mix as well from an enso standpoint. That was a neutral winter after 3 ninas in a row. 

we need a Harri-Kari emoticon

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