2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[MN Transplant]

From Al Joseph (WxMidwest)

 

Ok, so he is forecasting a Strongly -NAO winter.  Lets look at the others (DCA snow, ENSO):

 

'95/96 - Blockbuster, 46.0", weak Nina following mod Nino

'97/98 - Complete failure, 0.1", Super Nino

'86/87 - Big, 31.1", Mod Nino

'09/10 - Boom, 56.1", Mod to Strong Nino

'10/11 - Close, but no cigar, 10.1", Mod Nina

'84/85 - Below average, 10.3", Mod 2nd year Nina

 

Not a neutral in the bunch.

[mattie g]

Ok, so he is forecasting a Strongly -NAO winter.  Lets look at the others (DCA snow, ENSO):

 

'95/96 - Blockbuster, 46.0", weak Nina following mod Nino

'97/98 - Complete failure, 0.1", Super Nino

'86/87 - Big, 31.1", Mod Nino

'09/10 - Boom, 56.1", Mod to Strong Nino

'10/11 - Close, but no cigar, 10.1", Mod Nina

'84/85 - Below average, 10.3", Mod 2nd year Nina

 

Not a neutral in the bunch.

Flip a coin.

[Bob Chill]

Ok, so he is forecasting a Strongly -NAO winter. Lets look at the others (DCA snow, ENSO):

'95/96 - Blockbuster, 46.0", weak Nina following mod Nino

'97/98 - Complete failure, 0.1", Super Nino

'86/87 - Big, 31.1", Mod Nino

'09/10 - Boom, 56.1", Mod to Strong Nino

'10/11 - Close, but no cigar, 10.1", Mod Nina

'84/85 - Below average, 10.3", Mod 2nd year Nina

Not a neutral in the bunch.

Just another example of how this winter really has no good analogs and it's a particularly bad year to use past results to predict future ones. The only 2 things I feel comfortable about is a more nw stormtrack than we like overall and lack of a stj. Outside of that I really have no idea. Temps shouldn't be a dagger though.

The NAO could be a savior for sw's to ride below us. Maybe even a bowling ball. Or even a front end thump then dry slot. I'm rooting hard for a -nao personally. I hope the forecast is dead on.

[snow.]

Just another example of how this winter really has no good analogs and it's a particularly bad year to use past results to predict future ones. The only 2 things I feel comfortable about is a more nw stormtrack than we like overall and lack of a stj. Outside of that I really have no idea. Temps shouldn't be a dagger though.

The NAO could be a savior for sw's to ride below us. Maybe even a bowling ball. Or even a front end thump then dry slot. I'm rooting hard for a -nao personally. I hope the forecast is dead on.

 

yes

[WinterWxLuvr]

Ok, so he is forecasting a Strongly -NAO winter. Lets look at the others (DCA snow, ENSO):

'95/96 - Blockbuster, 46.0", weak Nina following mod Nino

'97/98 - Complete failure, 0.1", Super Nino

'86/87 - Big, 31.1", Mod Nino

'09/10 - Boom, 56.1", Mod to Strong Nino

'10/11 - Close, but no cigar, 10.1", Mod Nina

'84/85 - Below average, 10.3", Mod 2nd year Nina

Not a neutral in the bunch.

Not sure what you're implying here. No neutral in the strongly neg nao's? Might that not imply a great unknown for this year, assuming his -nao prediction is correct?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just another example of how this winter really has no good analogs and it's a particularly bad year to use past results to predict future ones. The only 2 things I feel comfortable about is a more nw stormtrack than we like overall and lack of a stj. Outside of that I really have no idea. Temps shouldn't be a dagger though.

The NAO could be a savior for sw's to ride below us. Maybe even a bowling ball. Or even a front end thump then dry slot. I'm rooting hard for a -nao personally. I hope the forecast is dead on.

I keep reading about the NW flow and no stj, but troughs deep enough and west enough (a big problem last year) should be able to occasionally tap the gulf and/or spin up some southern storminess, shouldn't it? Not a stj but a roller coaster that catches us on the upswing?

[snow.]

PAC  looks as good as it has in a while 

 

[snow.]

I keep reading about the NW flow and no stj, but troughs deep enough and west enough (a big problem last year) should be able to occasionally tap the gulf and/or spin up some southern storminess, shouldn't it? Not a stj but a roller coaster that catches us on the upswing?

 

The problem is the same we have seen the last couple winters....we see lows over dixie and they can't pull themselves up on their own, because the northern stream is too dominant....so they either get washed out to sea as a 1016mb neutered wave, or there is a primary to our west......in terms of something out of the south our best chance is to have a strong ULL and hope it takes a really favorable path... or a phase that is timed properly...also we can sometimes get a miller A coastal early or late season...

 

Our best  chance for a widespread 6"+ snowfall during the core of our snow producing window is probably a front thump into CAD with a block over baffin island and/or a displaced PV...sometimes this shuts off before it changes over or we just get drizzle at the end...Though usually the top end for this kind of snow is 4-7"....If we want something big, we probably need a split flow pattern and a phase that works out...ala 1/25/2000...you get a manufactured southern stream.....we have actually had a split flow pattern for periods of time the last 2 winters, but there was no shortwave traversing the south or no cold air or no phase, etc..

[Bob Chill]

I keep reading about the NW flow and no stj, but troughs deep enough and west enough (a big problem last year) should be able to occasionally tap the gulf and/or spin up some southern storminess, shouldn't it? Not a stj but a roller coaster that catches us on the upswing?

Yes, with split flow we can get this. Split flow allows gulf moisture to be sucked into a ns vort diving down. The majority of our big storms are strong vorts barreling across the desert sw and through tx/gulf before turning north. It's very hard to get something like that without an active stj.

The nw track mostly applies to the big storms this winter. They will close and wrap and cut unless a heck of a lot lines up. The whole threading/timing thing. Those that do cut far enough east will likely be ov/coastal jumpers.

IMO- the best chances at widespead events (even modest ones) will be from enough blocking to allow a strong vort to take the perfect track. Similar to what st mary county/RIC/Orange Co have seen in the last couple years. We just need to be in the bullseye because those systems aren't extensive geographically.

I'm absolutely not ruling out a timed phaser because they can happen in any enso setup. I'm not counting on one but will glady track the miracle of 13-14.

[mitchnick]

From Al Joseph (WxMidwest)

any links to this from last year or years before so we can compare the numbers from the prior years?

I just get a little skeptical of these "magic" graphs that pop up out of no where showing some great history of calls by someone

if they were that great for years, then I figure we would have all heard of it or seen it years ago

[Huffwx]

any links to this from last year or years before so we can compare the numbers from the prior years?

I just get a little skeptical of these "magic" graphs that pop up out of no where showing some great history of calls by someone

if they were that great for years, then I figure we would have all heard of it or seen it years ago

 

Agree. I'm skeptical. 

If I were forecasting for my area for this winter-- I'd say 5 inches. Not being negative, but trying to stress not SLIGHTLY below normal, but MUCH below normal snow. 

[Huffwx]

The WD index is definitely strongly in our favor. It could trump everything. DCA snowfall > BOS snowfall. Or not.

 

 

WD index was BAD in LYH- ROA with 14 years between 10+ inch events. (1996-2009) Longest run in 100 years-- 

[HighStakes]

The problem is the same we have seen the last couple winters....we see lows over dixie and they can't pull themselves up on their own, because the northern stream is too dominant....so they either get washed out to sea as a 1016mb neutered wave, or there is a primary to our west......in terms of something out of the south our best chance is to have a strong ULL and hope it takes a really favorable path... or a phase that is timed properly...also we can sometimes get a miller A coastal early or late season...

 

Our best  chance for a widespread 6"+ snowfall during the core of our snow producing window is probably a front thump into CAD with a block over baffin island and/or a displaced PV...sometimes this shuts off before it changes over or we just get drizzle at the end...Though usually the top end for this kind of snow is 4-7"....If we want something big, we probably need a split flow pattern and a phase that works out...ala 1/25/2000...you get a manufactured southern stream.....we have actually had a split flow pattern for periods of time the last 2 winters, but there was no shortwave traversing the south or no cold air or no phase, etc..

I was thinking about January 2000 today. Many would not agree but I would sign up for that right now. A memorable 2-3 week period can turn a horrendous winter into something decent. You pretty much nailed the way to get something big but as far as the front end thump we need systems that are modeled 3 days out to gives us .65 qpf to deliver that and not fizzle out and become .18 6 hours before the onset. I could be wrong but I don't think getting cold will be the problem this year however getting juicy systems this side of the mountains during the heart of winter may be difficult.

[uncle W]

3 out of 31 is a very good percentage but who's to say this year won't make it 4 of 32...

[snow.]

I was thinking about January 2000 today. Many would not agree but I would sign up for that right now. A memorable 2-3 week period can turn a horrendous winter into something decent. You pretty much nailed the way to get something big but as far as the front end thump we need systems that are modeled 3 days out to gives us .65 qpf to deliver that and not fizzle out and become .18 6 hours before the onset. I could be wrong but I don't think getting cold will be the problem this year however getting juicy systems this side of the mountains during the heart of winter may be difficult..

 

It was a rare anomalous situation to get that perfect split flow pattern and then actually capitalize on it....I think the strong Nina may have actually aided us, though I am not sure why

[Eskimo Joe]

Ok, so he is forecasting a Strongly -NAO winter.  Lets look at the others (DCA snow, ENSO):

 

'95/96 - Blockbuster, 46.0", weak Nina following mod Nino

'97/98 - Complete failure, 0.1", Super Nino

'86/87 - Big, 31.1", Mod Nino

'09/10 - Boom, 56.1", Mod to Strong Nino

'10/11 - Close, but no cigar, 10.1", Mod Nina

'84/85 - Below average, 10.3", Mod 2nd year Nina

 

Not a neutral in the bunch.

That just looks like another page DT made.

[WxUSAF]

That just looks like another page DT made.

Well...my BS detector starts beeping when an amazingly accurate (and proprietary and hence unpublished) forecasting method that none of us has ever heard of suddenly jumps into the light of day.  I'd love for it to be right, but Im' skeptical.  

[snow.]

Well...my BS detector starts beeping when an amazingly accurate (and proprietary and hence unpublished) forecasting method that none of us has ever heard of suddenly jumps into the light of day.  I'd love for it to be right, but Im' skeptical.  

 

I don't think it really matters that much for us in terms of snow amounts if we don't have a southern stream...cold yes, which can change our perspective on winter...But I think focusing on amounts as a metric to measure winter will be a pretty big letdown.  

[NJwinter23]

That's a bit imby w several near misses for DC..

 

He's got a good point though at least from a temperature perspective. Cohen blatantly disrespected what a poor Pacific could say to temperatures across the country last winter (mainly the first half).. I thought the SAI/AO relationship worked out beautifully last winter but the pacific would not allow it to get cold all through December, hence we had a Dec that was the 2nd warmest nationally since 1950 along side an AO of -2. 

[WxUSAF]

I don't think it really matters that much for us in terms of snow amounts if we don't have a southern stream...cold yes, which can change our perspective on winter...But I think focusing on amounts as a metric to measure winter will be a pretty big letdown.  

I think Wes has done the stats and found that a -AO is a better correlation to snow events than a -NAO.  Of course, they can often go hand-in-hand.  

 

What I'd like out of this winter is to not get nickel-and-dimed.  Or, more accurately for the last 2 winters, pennied-and-half-pennied.  If I'm only going to get 12" of snow, I'd like it in 3 4" chunks or 4 3" chunks or maybe even 1 12" chunk.  To hell with all the 0.1s, 0.2s, 0.4s.  

[Bob Chill]

I think Wes has done the stats and found that a -AO is a better correlation to snow events than a -NAO. Of course, they can often go hand-in-hand.

What I'd like out of this winter is to not get nickel-and-dimed. Or, more accurately for the last 2 winters, pennied-and-half-pennied. If I'm only going to get 12" of snow, I'd like it in 3 4" chunks or 4 3" chunks or maybe even 1 12" chunk. To hell with all the 0.1s, 0.2s, 0.4s.

I'm with you man. Give us 2 or 3 periods with a week or 2 of cold and even a modest dumping. The kind that actually needs a shovel and sticks around in the shade for a week. Maybe even a bonus clipper to refresh the piles with a 1-2" before melting it all away. I haven't used a shovel in 2 years. Last year I just let it melt in 15 minutes and used a backpack blower with my 1" of featherdust from a clipper. I think my kids forgot how to sled too.

[EasternUSWX]

For all of our sanity I hope it is a good winter. A 8"+ storm would lift all our sprits. 

[Bob Chill]

PAC looks as good as it has in a while

I've been afraid to comment on that. I've been thinking the pac has looked ok for the last month but kept convincing myself that I'm missing something that says the opposite so I didn't want to post anything.

We know the pac won't be "good" this year irt to temp anomaly distribution but it's looking like the possibility of it not being a big negative is starting to increase.

[snow.]

He's got a good point though at least from a temperature perspective. Cohen blatantly disrespected what a poor Pacific could say to temperatures across the country last winter (mainly the first half).. I thought the SAI/AO relationship worked out beautifully last winter but the pacific would not allow it to get cold all through December, hence we had a Dec that was the 2nd warmest nationally since 1950 along side an AO of -2. 

 

 

yep

 

here is his interview from last year..he was pretty much wrong here

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/leading-forecaster-judah-cohen-favors-harsh-winter-for-washington-dc-east-coast/2012/11/21/ea5ff790-33e8-11e2-9cfa-e41bac906cc9_blog.html

[Huffwx]

He's got a good point though at least from a temperature perspective. Cohen blatantly disrespected what a poor Pacific could say to temperatures across the country last winter (mainly the first half).. I thought the SAI/AO relationship worked out beautifully last winter but the pacific would not allow it to get cold all through December, hence we had a Dec that was the 2nd warmest nationally since 1950 along side an AO of -2. 

 

 

I agree on that-- and then that LATE -AO was technically spring.  (Meteorological ..)

[snow.]

I've been afraid to comment on that. I've been thinking the pac has looked ok for the last month but kept convincing myself that I'm missing something that says the opposite so I didn't want to post anything.

We know the pac won't be "good" this year irt to temp anomaly distribution but it's looking like the possibility of it not being a big negative is starting to increase.

 

 

[usedtobe]

Well...my BS detector starts beeping when an amazingly accurate (and proprietary and hence unpublished) forecasting method that none of us has ever heard of suddenly jumps into the light of day.  I'd love for it to be right, but Im' skeptical.  

I pretty much am too especially with two of these new and unpublished methods pretty much at odds concerning what the high latitudes will look like.  Looks like Cohen's method also will differ from Joseph's Don't get me wrong,  I'd love Joseph's method to be right and he may be on to something.  I'd feel better about it if it were in a journal or if I saw it work well for a few years in a row (starting now). 

[WxUSAF]

I pretty much am too especially with two of these new and unpublished methods pretty much at odds concerning what the high latitudes will look like.  Looks like Cohen's method also will differ from Joseph's Don't get me wrong,  I'd love Joseph's method to be right and he may be on to something.  I'd feel better about it if it were in a journal or if I saw it work well for a few years in a row (starting now). 

Agree, Wes.  Seems like the SAI is going to predict a positive or, at best, neutral AO for the upcoming winter.  But we also should have well above NH snowcover at the end of October.  So, maybe a bit of conflicting signals there? 

[Amped]

That just looks like another page DT made.

 

Haha, I'm not ready to reverse my call based on that poorly drawn "Proprietary Formula" spreadsheet, that's wrong 1/3 of the time anyway.   

[WinterWxLuvr]

I pretty much am too especially with two of these new and unpublished methods pretty much at odds concerning what the high latitudes will look like. Looks like Cohen's method also will differ from Joseph's Don't get me wrong, I'd love Joseph's method to be right and he may be on to something. I'd feel better about it if it were in a journal or if I saw it work well for a few years in a row (starting now).

Wes. Can you post that four quadrant graph you had last year showing the storms for each of the ao/nao combinations?