2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[WxUSAF]

We can't totally overlook 61-62 and 62-63. They were neg neutral and 2 years removed from the last enso event (weak Nino). They were also at the beginning of a long term -pdo period. Great Decembers thanks to a robust -nao.

 

Yes please

 

 

-WPO ridge in those as well teleconnecting to the +PNA and eastern US trough.  As I checked back to one of my earlier posts on the WPO, however, a super strong -WPO can hurt us though if the trough digs out west.  So, maybe in these years, it was the combination of the -WPO and +NAO that produced that deep eastern US trough.  

 

Editorial comment:  I really wish there was consistency between the indices on positive and negative being associated with ridges and troughs.  -WPO is a ridge, -EPO is a ridge, +PNA is a ridge, -NAO is a ridge...

[tombo82685]

CFSv2 says +PNA/+NAO for December and January and then +PNA/-NAO for February.  

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

 

Someone give us some good analogs for that type of winter in the Mid-Atlantic.  I think 93-94 had a predominant +NAO and maybe one of the cold winters in the 70s?  

93-94 if i remember right had a big time -epo which established the cold in the east regardless of crummy atlantic

[WxUSAF]

93-94 if i remember right had a big time -epo which established the cold in the east regardless of crummy atlantic

It did.  You can see it here.  

 

 

Side note, how do you make the composite anomaly charts?  Too many different pages on ESRL...

[Bob Chill]

It did.  You can see it here.  

 

 

Side note, how do you make the composite anomaly charts?  Too many different pages on ESRL...

 

It was an unusual year irt things going right to fight against wrong. +PDO year door to door though. This really helped the EC with well placed ridging in the pac. 

 

Just click the radio button for anomaly on the plot type option. The default is mean.

 

[mitchnick]

I don't think this would be a good thing if it continues...calling HM?

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html

[WxUSAF]

We can't totally overlook 61-62 and 62-63. They were neg neutral and 2 years removed from the last enso event (weak Nino). They were also at the beginning of a long term -pdo period. Great Decembers thanks to a robust -nao.

 

Yes please

 

61-62 dec.JPG

Interestingly, the patterns were a bit different in December 61 and December 62.  62 had the more classic -WPO as part of a Rex block like pattern in the Pacific between Hawaii and the Arctic.  This allowed a big +PNA that sent the eastern CONUS into the freezer.  Also an east-based -NAO.  

 

In December 61, the -WPO was shifted farther west toward eastern Siberia and the mean trough axis was over the Rockies.  A mega -NAO kept the eastern CONUS from torching in that set up.  

 

 

 

But, they are examples of what can happen with a -WPO ridge and allow us to stay below normal in the temp department.  

[WxUSAF]

Can someone who does this better than I tell me why or why not 1976-77 would be a good analog for this winter?  Yes, I realize October 1976 had mega NH snow cover, but the PDO and ENSO states both are pretty good matches to what's happened the last few years.  76-77 also had a significant Aleutian low.  1956-1957 also seems like a good match PDO and ENSO-wise.  56-57 also had a big -WPO ridge, which is certainly in the consideration for this year.  Of course, 76-77 and 56-57 were pretty different in sensible weather for the eastern CONUS.  

 

ENSO:

 

 

1954

0.7

0.5

0.1

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

1955

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.7

-1.1

-1.4

-1.7

-1.6

1956

-1.1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

1957

-0.3

0.1

0.4

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.8

 

 

1973

1.8

1.2

0.6

-0.1

-0.5

-0.8

-1.0

-1.2

-1.3

-1.6

-1.9

-2.0

1974

-1.9

-1.6

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.7

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

1975

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6

-1.7

1976

-1.5

-1.1

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

1977

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

 

 

2010

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.6

0.1

-0.4

-0.9

-1.2

-1.4

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

2011

-1.4

-1.2

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.0

2012

-0.9

-0.6

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.2

-0.3

2013

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

 

PDO:

 

1953 -0.57 -0.07 -1.12 0.05 0.43 0.29 0.74 0.05 -0.63 -1.09 -0.03 0.07
1954 -1.32 -1.61 -0.52 -1.33 0.01 0.97 0.43 0.08 -0.94 0.52 0.72 -0.50
1955 0.20 -1.52 -1.26 -1.97 -1.21 -2.44 -2.35 -2.25 -1.95 -2.80 -3.08 -2.75
1956 -2.48 -2.74 -2.56 -2.17 -1.41 -1.70 -1.03 -1.16 -0.71 -2.30 -2.11 -1.28
1957 -1.82 -0.68 0.03 -0.58 0.57 1.76 0.72 0.51 1.59 1.50 -0.32 -0.55

 

1973 -0.46 -0.61 -0.50 -0.69 -0.76 -0.97 -0.57 -1.14 -0.51 -0.87 -1.81 -0.76
1974 -1.22 -1.65 -0.90 -0.52 -0.28 -0.31 -0.08 0.27 0.44 -0.10 0.43 -0.12
1975 -0.84 -0.71 -0.51 -1.30 -1.02 -1.16 -0.40 -1.07 -1.23 -1.29 -2.08 -1.61
1976 -1.14 -1.85 -0.96 -0.89 -0.68 -0.67 0.61 1.28 0.82 1.11 1.25 1.22
1977 1.65 1.11 0.72 0.30 0.31 0.42 0.19 0.64 -0.55 -0.61 -0.72 -0.69

 

2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21
2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79
2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48
2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48

 

500mb:

 

 

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Well that got formatted weirdly, but you get the idea.  

[ORH_wxman]

Can someone who does this better than I tell me why or why not 1976-77 would be a good analog for this winter?  Yes, I realize October 1976 had mega NH snow cover, but the PDO and ENSO states both are pretty good matches to what's happened the last few years.  1956-1957 also seems like a good match PDO and ENSO-wise.  56-57 also had a big -WPO ridge, which is certainly in the consideration for this year.  Of course, 76-77 and 56-57 were pretty different in sensible weather for the eastern CONUS.  

 

 

PDO in 1976 went massively positive in the summer after basically 7 years of being almost wall to wall negative. It was the shift in the decadal PDO regime that year. This year, we haven't seen that shift to positive.

[Bob Chill]

76-77 was a strong flip to a +pdo door to door coming off the heels of a 6 year stretch of -pdo winters. Zwyts would have to chime in here for details but from what I see, the pac really cooperated that year and there was a very -ao period from door to door. Jan AO came in a -3.767 in 1977. It's the lowest monthly on record since 1950. 

[Bob Chill]

Interestingly, the patterns were a bit different in December 61 and December 62.  62 had the more classic -WPO as part of a Rex block like pattern in the Pacific between Hawaii and the Arctic.  This allowed a big +PNA that sent the eastern CONUS into the freezer.  Also an east-based -NAO.  

 

 

I think the Januaries of those winters really show a good example of how the pac continued to save us. Jan of 62 was solidly positive with the AO but the extremely favorable ridging from near AK and also just off the west coast. The MA wasn't in the icebox that month but there was plenty of cold nearby. It was a perfect ridge sandwich between the coasts that totally offset the warmth more typical of a +AO. 

 

 

 

Jan 63 looks really different at high latitudes but that big -nao and continuing favorable pac delivered the cold with ease.

 

 

 

 

 

We're starting to see multiple posts around the forums about the impending +AO this winter. I personally don't buy it yet. We might not have a solid -ao winter but I have plenty of doubts that it's going to kill us all winter. 

 

I've said this off and on for more than a couple of months. IMO- our odds of a favorable wpo/epo setup this year are probably at the very least even or slightly in our favor. NAO is always a wildcard. I personally think the odds of another long duration -pna + crap pac are pretty low. I might be eating my words later but who cares what I think. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Time for Bob to post a CFSv2 pic for Dec. 5.  That's our 1st goal of the winter, Dec. 5

[WxUSAF]

PDO in 1976 went massively positive in the summer after basically 7 years of being almost wall to wall negative. It was the shift in the decadal PDO regime that year. This year, we haven't seen that shift to positive.

 

 

PDO in 1976 went massively positive in the summer after basically 7 years of being almost wall to wall negative. It was the shift in the decadal PDO regime that year. This year, we haven't seen that shift to positive.

 

 

76-77 was a strong flip to a +pdo door to door coming off the heels of a 6 year stretch of -pdo winters. Zwyts would have to chime in here for details but from what I see, the pac really cooperated that year and there was a very -ao period from door to door. Jan AO came in a -3.767 in 1977. It's the lowest monthly on record since 1950. 

Yeah I see that.  Didn't realize having a short "history" of +PDO/+ENSO made the difference that quickly as opposed to several years prior of -PDO/-ENSO.  

 

P.S.  What about 56-57?

 

P.S.S.  For those of us who's parents were young kids in 56-57, what was that winter like?

[WxUSAF]

 

 

I've said this off and on for more than a couple of months. IMO- our odds of a favorable wpo/epo setup this year are probably at the very least even or slightly in our favor. NAO is always a wildcard. I personally think the odds of another long duration -pna + crap pac are pretty low. I might be eating my words later but who cares what I think. 

Yeah.  I think it really matters where the WPO/EPO ridge axis is located.  If it's shifted west of the Bering Straight, we're probably in trouble without a massive -NAO because the mean ridge axis will force a trough over western NA. If it's over the Bering Straight and to the east, that helps us more.  If we're going to have a strong -WPO, I think we want it pretty beastly strong so it ties into the -EPO and +PNA and just keeps the whole of Alaska and western NA in a ridge regime.  

[mitchnick]

76-77 was a strong flip to a +pdo door to door coming off the heels of a 6 year stretch of -pdo winters. Zwyts would have to chime in here for details but from what I see, the pac really cooperated that year and there was a very -ao period from door to door. Jan AO came in a -3.767 in 1977. It's the lowest monthly on record since 1950. 

and the winter only gave BWI and, coincidentally DCA, 11.1" of snow that year so minus the record cold (which does nothing for me at this age though others would disagree), that winter was a dog

seems like a -AO w/o a decent NINO has a better chance of being wasted when it comes to snowfall

[Bob Chill]

and the winter only gave BWI and, coincidentally DCA, 11.1" of snow that year so minus the record cold (which does nothing for me at this age though others would disagree), that winter was a dog

seems like a -AO w/o a decent NINO has a better chance of being wasted when it comes to snowfall

 

lol- we're in a damned if we do and damned if we don't latitude. Too much blocking is a congrats NC setup. 

[mitchnick]

lol- we're in a damned if we do and damned if we don't latitude. Too much blocking is a congrats NC setup. 

meh, the only way we get snow is by accident or miracle

predictions based on favorable weather indexes just don't seem to work for us on a consistent basis

[Bob Chill]

Yeah.  I think it really matters where the WPO/EPO ridge axis is located.  If it's shifted west of the Bering Straight, we're probably in trouble without a massive -NAO because the mean ridge axis will force a trough over western NA. If it's over the Bering Straight and to the east, that helps us more.  If we're going to have a strong -WPO, I think we want it pretty beastly strong so it ties into the -EPO and +PNA and just keeps the whole of Alaska and western NA in a ridge regime.  

 

It's possible that the wpo/epo areas wobble back and forth and not have a dominant regime setup up for extended periods. I've been pondering this irt to the pna and nao as well. My gut is telling me a variable winter is in the cards moreso than the last couple. We've seen it for months now. Every time we have a hot or cool spell it's knocked out of the way relatively quickly (meaning 2 weeks tops for each period). I suppose this means better chances at timing something because their will be more amplifying periods instead of waiting and waiting and waiting for the "mother of all pattern changes". 

 

I'm hoping the pna waxes and wanes all winter. We can get something on the tail of a front. You know, like overrunning that hasn't happened in like a 100 years. 

[ORH_wxman]

meh, the only way we get snow is by accident or miracle

predictions based on favorable weather indexes just don't seem to work for us on a consistent basis

 

I dunno, I think a meaningful El Nino with a -AO is pretty much money in DC/BWI...or a warm regime Neutral with -AO.

 

Zwyts' stats are pretty compelling. Obviously nothing is a 100% lock, but you will become rich very fast betting on good winters there with a -AO/El Nino combo...and rich a little less quickly betting on warm regime neutrals with -AOs.

[mitchnick]

I dunno, I think a meaningful El Nino with a -AO is pretty much money in DC/BWI...or a warm regime Neutral with -AO.

 

Zwyts' stats are pretty compelling. Obviously nothing is a 100% lock, but you will become rich very fast betting on good winters there with a -AO/El Nino combo...and rich a little less quickly betting on warm regime neutrals with -AOs.

2 problems: 1) those combos or not very common, and 2) although they offer the best odds, they can easily underperform

I guess our/my problem can be explained in 1 word.....climo

or 2 words.....lat/long

[Sparky]

I would hardly call 76/77 a dog of a winter.  It had too many unique aspect, like a well frozen Chesapeake Bay for one, to be labeled a dog IMHO.  What snow fell stuck and stuck and stuck too.

[Bob Chill]

2 problems: 1) those combos or not very common, and 2) although they offer the best odds, they can easily underperform

I guess our/my problem can be explained in 1 word.....climo

or 2 words.....lat/long

 

 

Thanks Deb.

 

 

Warm neutrals aren't common but the data set is small so who knows what really went on over the last few thousand years.

 

From the limited data we have, warm neutrals have equal chances going either way with the AO. Over the last 10 years the bias has definitely been towards a -ao for DJF. Almost 80% of Febs have had a -ao fwiw. 

[Bob Chill]

I would hardly call 76/77 a dog of a winter.  It had too many unique aspect, like a well frozen Chesapeake Bay for one, to be labeled a dog IMHO.  What snow fell stuck and stuck and stuck too.

 

I personally would prefer a winter without extreme blocking. We don't get snow because we're stuck under massive cold hp. Storm track is suppressed. We end of getting lots of nickels and no quarters. 

 

IMO- this winter we need to root for as many periods of amplification as possible. If we aren't going to have an active stj then we need as many timing opportunities as possible. Split flow may show it's face too. Maybe something dropping down can tap the gulf. I'm stoked to start chasing again regardless. 

[snow.]

Cohen's research is good for 40N...I got 5" last winter...We see what blocking does here with a bad PAC and no formidable southern stream....nothing...last winter after I put out the CWG outlook, Cohen dismissed the importance of the PAC...said I focused too much on the PDO....that worked out well

[Huffwx]

Cohen's research is good for 40N...I got 5" last winter...We see what blocking does here with a bad PAC and no formidable southern stream....nothing...last winter after I put out the CWG outlook, Cohen dismissed the importance of the PAC...said I focused too much on the PDO....that worked out well

That's a bit imby w several near misses for DC..

[usedtobe]

I dunno, I think a meaningful El Nino with a -AO is pretty much money in DC/BWI...or a warm regime Neutral with -AO.

 

Zwyts' stats are pretty compelling. Obviously nothing is a 100% lock, but you will become rich very fast betting on good winters there with a -AO/El Nino combo...and rich a little less quickly betting on warm regime neutrals with -AOs.

 

That's especially true if the nino is a moderate one. As Matt has noted weak ninos following ninas have not been that kind to us.  I'm not sure what to expect this year but don't think the AO will be as negative as last year. 

[Ian]

IT IS ON

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

IT IS ON

Untitled-14.jpg

What's the current number on the "we're kind of due" index?

[Benchmark]

From Al Joseph (WxMidwest)

[Midlo Snow Maker]

From Al Joseph (WxMidwest)

I just saw this on dt's fb page this is very encouraging