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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.


Bob Chill

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You guys are going to be so stressed from predicting a bad winter that you won't be able to enjoy what winter we do get.

Aside from you folks in the sticks, the rest of us sad sacks generally had <50% of normal last winter (let alone the previous two), so we have every right to be pessimistic.

Let us grumble, dammit!

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Aside from you folks in the sticks, the rest of us sad sacks generally had <50% of normal last winter (let alone the previous two), so we have every right to be pessimistic.

Let us grumble, dammit!

 

Above average year in the "sticks" for me, though barely and not in any particularly exciting storm.  Nickel and dimed late season with a few inches here and there.

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Do the numbers without 09-10 and it gets really ugly

 

Interesting - Dulles is at 245.5 / 18.88 average (if my 'calculator' work is correct) which is above DCA (no shocker there) but still slightly below BWI.  I'm a little surprised by the latter - it almost always seems like we do better than BWI in the significant storms.

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Depends on your definition of "burbs" - I got 7" from Snowquester :)

 

4" for me, but I'm thinking more a general 6-12" throughout the suburbs, rather than limited to a few places well north and west.

 

Above average year in the "sticks" for me, though barely and not in any particularly exciting storm.  Nickel and dimed late season with a few inches here and there.

 

Anything past Dulles is the sticks, even if it's mile after mile of townhouses out there.  ;)

 

I got 50% of average IMBY last year.  That was from 20+ different events, more than half of which were just a T.  And the vast majority of my snow came in March.  Weird year.

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Non-scientific, but still putting this out there so I can be held accountable.  I bet Master of Disaster than we will have a mild, snowless winter.  In fact I went so far as to bet him lunch at a place of his choosing that we won't have any storm that warrants a winter storm warning for Montgomery County from Dec 1, 2013 -> April 1, 2014.  

 

That was the dumbest bet ever. You know places in northern MoCo can pull out some snow while places closer to DC will get rain, hence prompting a legit warning for some of the county.

 

Hope he enjoys his free lunch!

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4" for me, but I'm thinking more a general 6-12" throughout the suburbs, rather than limited to a few places well north and west.

 

 

Anything past Dulles is the sticks, even if it's mile after mile of townhouses out there.  ;)

 

 

 

 

Hey, I resent that - we're in the rural triangle south of Braddock, 3-5 acre lots and I can legally hunt in the forest across the street (two years ago my neighbors took a deer in the woods behind their house and cleaned it in the cul-de-sac - yeah they are rednecks).  Ashburn, yeah, that is miles and miles of townhouses.  :)

 

 

 

I got 50% of average IMBY last year.  That was from 20+ different events, more than half of which were just a T.  And the vast majority of my snow came in March.  Weird year.

 

Pretty much the same here, but added up to a little more.  But yes, 20 different events, and the majority of the total was in March.

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That was the dumbest bet ever. You know places in northern MoCo can pull out some snow while places closer to DC will get rain, hence prompting a legit warning for some of the county.

 

Hope he enjoys his free lunch!

 

At least he qualified it with "legit warning" rather than just "warning", since a warning here often means "feet and feet of virga".

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At least he qualified it with "legit warning" rather than just "warning", since a warning here often means "feet and feet of virga".

 

But then he said later, as soon as a pink box goes up, he loses. So whether its "legit" or not, an issued warning is an issued warning and he owes lunch.

 

 

so silly

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We're due one storm of 6-12" in the burbs.  It's been three f'ing years since we've had one, so it's going to happen this year.

DCA and Rose Hill will get 4" and like it.

 

I might be slow but I see all and you have made the list*

 

*after the last two winters I would take a 4" storm in a heartbeat.

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But then he said later, as soon as a pink box goes up, he loses. So whether its "legit" or not, an issued warning is an issued warning and he owes lunch.

 

 

so silly

 

Yeah, no kidding.  If every pink box I saw here met warning criteria, we'd be getting more snowfall per year than Buffalo.

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But then he said later, as soon as a pink box goes up, he loses. So whether its "legit" or not, an issued warning is an issued warning and he owes lunch.

 

 

so silly

 

 

I think it would be fun to try to guess how many watches will be issued for the various airport, maybe warning too.  I was thinking of starting a thread but then didn't as people might thing my wag was a serious forecast concerning what I thought might happen this winter. 

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I think it would be fun to try to guess how many watches will be issued for the various airport, maybe warning too.  I was thinking of starting a thread but then didn't as people might thing my wag was a serious forecast concerning what I thought might happen this winter. 

I think you should start it, it would be a fun contest. Just put a disclaimer on it.

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I didn't think the bet was actually serious.... how can anyone be so confident that there won't be a single storm of 5"+ in any part of the county?

 

Reminds me of another silly bet from high school (06-07) when someone made a bet that there wouldn't be a 2"+ storm for the entire season. I think the bet was made during the January torch. Needless to say, it busted several times over.

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I didn't think the bet was actually serious.... how can anyone be so confident that there won't be a single storm of 5"+ in any part of the county?

 

Reminds me of another silly bet from high school (06-07) when someone made a bet that there wouldn't be a 2"+ storm for the entire season. I think the bet was made during the January torch. Needless to say, it busted several times over.

 

 

I should add that I hope to the snow gods I am wrong and we get a '09 - '10 redux.

In other words he just wanted an excuse to go with MOD to lunch.

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I think it would be fun to try to guess how many watches will be issued for the various airport, maybe warning too.  I was thinking of starting a thread but then didn't as people might thing my wag was a serious forecast concerning what I thought might happen this winter. 

 

I'm in. 

 

Tie breaker-- how many times JI cancels winter or complaints of DCA and RIC SNOWFALL totals compared to the region. 

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all our "good" winters were Ninos or had southern streams....we aren't getting a "good" winter.....Time to start calibrating ourselves to measure the success of this winter in qualitative ways rather than number of inches....

 

Speak for yourself.  Some of us just like to have fun with the whole thing.

 

It's not like winter around here is something to be feared, so we really don't have to take it too seriously.

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Speak for yourself.  Some of us just like to have fun with the whole thing.

 

It's not like winter around here is something to be feared, so we really don't have to take it too seriously.

 

Sorry man, I'm afraid weather is some serious sh*t. 

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It's serious because most of us love it so much.

The getting down because of what might be probable baffles me. What makes this time of year exciting, IMO, is what's possible, not what's probable. I'd actually feel worse if a bunch of people were predicting an awesome winter. Makes for disappointment.

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all our "good" winters were Ninos or had southern streams....we aren't getting a "good" winter.....Time to start calibrating ourselves to measure the success of this winter in qualitative ways rather than number of inches....

there were a few decent winters in there that were not NINOs where we got to normal and occasionally a bit above, so all is not lost; not that every NINO has been good to us for that matter

plus, chaos and our understanding of it is far from perfect to rule out in mid-October any winter being decent

 

 

p.s. and just maybe this will mean something

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png

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