2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[mitchnick]

 

I meant nothing by it and I know you weren't suggesting OCT pattern=winter pattern. There is going to be winter at some point, there always is a period or two. That is inevitable. I just wanted to bring another perspective to the current global circulation and what that would have meant with winter-like waves. It's highly speculative and I could be wrong. In some of the "worst" analog years, there was some decent winter shots in the Mid Atlantic.

Translation:

1) "I meant nothing by it and I know you weren't suggesting OCT pattern=winter pattern." = Dude, you suck, why do you post that cr@p?

2) "There is going to be winter at some point, there always is a period or two. That is inevitable." = Where you are, you'll be lucky to get a post NE blizzard, backlash flurry after your inch of slop, RS-, then dryslot. Go buy a Farmers' Almanac and jump back into bed.

3) "I just wanted to bring another perspective to the current global circulation and what that would have meant with winter-like waves."=Get real weenie. Are you deaf, dumb and blind to MA winters? Quit having kids and start learning physics instead of practicing biology

4) "It's highly speculative and I could be wrong. In some of the "worst" analog years, there was some decent winter shots in the Mid Atlantic."=Here....take this bone "weenie dog" and get out of my sight

[mappy]

lol

[Bob Chill]

Mitch needs to head over to Ian's and score a couple valiums. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Mitch needs to head over to Ian's and score a couple valiums.

You have to admit that was pretty funny.

[Guest Pamela]

Total Snowfall
2000-01 through 2012-13 (Last 13 Years)

Boston / Logan Airport: 620.9 inches / average 47.76 inches
Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 538.6 inches / average 41.43 inches
New York City / Central Park: 410.1 inches / average 31.55 inches
Philadelphia / International Airport: 321.9 inches / average 24.76 inches
Baltimore / BWI Airport: 253.0 inches / average 19.46 inches
Washington / Reagan Airport: 182.7 inches / average 14.05 inches           

[psuhoffman]

Total Snowfall

2000-01 through 2012-13 (Last 13 Years)

Boston / Logan Airport: 620.9 inches / average 47.76 inches

Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 538.6 inches / average 41.43 inches

New York City / Central Park: 410.1 inches / average 31.55 inches

Philadelphia / International Airport: 321.9 inches / average 24.76 inches

Baltimore / BWI Airport: 253.0 inches / average 19.46 inches

Washington / Reagan Airport: 182.7 inches / average 14.05 inches

Do the numbers without 09-10 and it gets really ugly

[mitchnick]

Do the numbers without 09-10 and it gets really ugly

yeah, but that's the way it has been around these parts for a long time......1 feast to every 6 famines

[Eskimo Joe]

Snow and ice cover really doesn't look that impressive.  

 

[mitchnick]

Snow and ice cover really doesn't look that impressive.  

 

arctic.seaice.color.000.png

it's all relative, and relatively speaking, it's pretty darn good

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/

[Bob Chill]

Cryosphere today hasn't updated since the 1st. Eurasian snowcover for week 39 is the highest it's been in over 10 years (4th column). Column 3 is NH and column 5 is NA. However, the big gains in eurasia came during the last 2 weeks of September. Not exactly in line with the October theory. I'm not complaining though. There has been no shortage of cold air in the high latitudes for months on end and that will likely continue. Maybe we can get the pv on our side this winter and deliver the goods. It has to happen eventually. Russia has been pummeled with cold for years in a row. All patterns change. I'm going with this year. Maybe we won't be frigid in the east but some parts of the country could certainly freeze. 

 

We're pretty close to 02's #s. Too bad that doesn't mean anything.

 

[Bob Chill]

Here's the Oct 13th snowcover chart from rutgers. It's not an anomaly chart so the orange color means nothing. 

 

[mattie g]

Ice makes no difference. The advance of snowcover in western Siberia below 60*N during October is the crux of Cohen's work. Right now, it's looking pretty good, although, as Bob said, there was a big increase at the end of September that skews things just a bit for now.

By the way...if you're going to try to be a downer, the least you could do is post an image from today instead of one from two weeks ago.

[uncle W]

snowfall for i95 cities 1889-90 by decade...

Snowfall averages for the ten year period starting with 1889-90...
decade.......................Washington.Baltimore. Philadelphia. New York. Boston
1889-90 to 1898-99..........25.7"..........24.5"..........23.8"..........35.8"..........53.5"*
1899-00 to 1908-09..........23.4"..........21.9"..........25.5"..........28.8"..........39.8"
1909-10 to 1918-19..........20.9"..........22.8"..........28.9"..........30.6"..........39.1"
1919-20 to 1928-29..........15.3"..........19.7"..........19.7"..........29.5"..........43.2"
1929-30 to 1938-39..........18.3"..........22.5"..........18.2"..........24.5"..........37.5"
1939-40 to 1948-49..........17.6"..........23.4"..........21.4"..........32.8"..........42.9"
1949-50 to 1958-59..........12.8"..........14.7"..........15.2"..........20.1"..........37.2"
1959-60 to 1968-69..........24.8"..........32.4"..........29.1"..........32.0"..........49.4"
1969-70 to 1978-79..........14.6"..........17.8"..........21.7"..........22.5"..........44.6"
1979-80 to 1988-89..........18.1"..........18.5"..........20.4"..........19.7"..........32.7"
1989-90 to 1998-99..........12.9"..........17.7"..........18.5"..........24.4"..........49.7"
1999-00 to 2008-09..........12.7"..........18.0"..........20.7"..........28.0"..........44.9"
2009-10 to 2012-13..........17.8"..........25.3"..........33.8"..........36.7"..........47.4"

except for a few years snowfall has been on the low side since the 1980's in Washington......

proof reading for errors are welcomed...

[Eskimo Joe]

Here's the Oct 13th snowcover chart from rutgers. It's not an anomaly chart so the orange color means nothing. 

 

oct13 snowcover.JPG

 

I've made an animation of all snow cover anomalies for Oct 13th going from 2000 -> 2013.

 

[Sparky]

snowfall for i95 cities 1889-90 by decade...

Snowfall averages for the ten year period starting with 1889-90...

decade.......................Washington.Baltimore. Philadelphia. New York. Boston

1889-90 to 1898-99..........25.7"..........24.5"..........23.8"..........35.8"..........53.5"*

1899-00 to 1908-09..........23.4"..........21.9"..........25.5"..........28.8"..........39.8"

1909-10 to 1918-19..........20.9"..........22.8"..........28.9"..........30.6"..........39.1"

1919-20 to 1928-29..........15.3"..........19.7"..........19.7"..........29.5"..........43.2"

1929-30 to 1938-39..........18.3"..........22.5"..........18.2"..........24.5"..........37.5"

1939-40 to 1948-49..........17.6"..........23.4"..........21.4"..........32.8"..........42.9"

1949-50 to 1958-59..........12.8"..........14.7"..........15.2"..........20.1"..........37.2"

1959-60 to 1968-69..........24.8"..........32.4"..........29.1"..........32.0"..........49.4"

1969-70 to 1978-79..........14.6"..........17.8"..........21.7"..........22.5"..........44.6"

1979-80 to 1988-89..........18.1"..........18.5"..........20.4"..........19.7"..........32.7"

1989-90 to 1998-99..........12.9"..........17.7"..........18.5"..........24.4"..........49.7"

1999-00 to 2008-09..........12.7"..........18.0"..........20.7"..........28.0"..........44.9"

2009-10 to 2012-13..........17.8"..........25.3"..........33.8"..........36.7"..........47.4"

except for a few years snowfall has been on the low side since the 1980's in Washington......

proof reading for errors are welcomed...

wow, Boston doesn't fall beloiw 40 much... and the warmer more recent decades just keep getting better and better for them.  DC sure has crashed and burned.  Balto is hanging on but not by much.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Snow and ice cover really doesn't look that impressive.  

 

arctic.seaice.color.000.png

That's 2 weeks old

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Cryosphere today hasn't updated since the 1st. Eurasian snowcover for week 39 is the highest it's been in over 10 years (4th column). Column 3 is NH and column 5 is NA. However, the big gains in eurasia came during the last 2 weeks of September. Not exactly in line with the October theory. I'm not complaining though. There has been no shortage of cold air in the high latitudes for months on end and that will likely continue. Maybe we can get the pv on our side this winter and deliver the goods. It has to happen eventually. Russia has been pummeled with cold for years in a row. All patterns change. I'm going with this year. Maybe we won't be frigid in the east but some parts of the country could certainly freeze. 

 

We're pretty close to 02's #s. Too bad that doesn't mean anything.

 

week39.JPG

I posted this in the CC forum

September was ranked 6 out of 45 for the most cover for the NH per Rutgers

Week 39 ranked 7th most. Values below are in million sq. km

1977 15.09

1972 14.02

2000 12.76

1973 11.50

2002 10.84

1989 10.82

2013 10.36

1983 10.23

[Ji]

now this is more like it

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

[Bob Chill]

Damn Ji. Did the CFS just beat you to the cancel button? You might have cancelled it back in April. My memory is fading as I age. I don't even remember last winter. Did it snow? 

[mitchnick]

Coastalwx from the NE forum said the new Euro SIPS long range product out today for the MA:

 

"Well I'm just going by memory since I'm not near a laptop, but it wasn't as bad as the regular euro seasonal. With that -EPO and some help
From a central based -NAO you guys probably could grab some snow. It might be Miller B like but it only takes a disturbance ejecting from the low heights south of the Aleutians to help you guys out. I think the DJF period had weak Gulf coast ridging."

[ORH_wxman]

Coastalwx from the NE forum said the new Euro SIPS long range product out today for the MA:

 

"Well I'm just going by memory since I'm not near a laptop, but it wasn't as bad as the regular euro seasonal. With that -EPO and some help

From a central based -NAO you guys probably could grab some snow. It might be Miller B like but it only takes a disturbance ejecting from the low heights south of the Aleutians to help you guys out. I think the DJF period had weak Gulf coast ridging."

 

 

It has the best possible outcome for the M.A. you could expect without a STJ this winter. Hope it is correct....if it is, then it would be a decent winter.

[ravensrule]

It has the best possible outcome for the M.A. you could expect without a STJ this winter. Hope it is correct....if it is, then it would be a decent winter.

Thanks for the ray of hope Will.

[Eskimo Joe]

Non-scientific, but still putting this out there so I can be held accountable.  I bet Master of Disaster than we will have a mild, snowless winter.  In fact I went so far as to bet him lunch at a place of his choosing that we won't have any storm that warrants a winter storm warning for Montgomery County from Dec 1, 2013 -> April 1, 2014.  

[ravensrule]

Non-scientific, but still putting this out there so I can be held accountable.  I bet Master of Disaster than we will have a mild, snowless winter.  In fact I went so far as to bet him lunch at a place of his choosing that we won't have any storm that warrants a winter storm warning for Montgomery County from Dec 1, 2013 -> April 1, 2014.  

That warrants, meaning in your opinion or just betting that there will be no winter storm warnings issued at all this winter?.

[Eskimo Joe]

That warrants, meaning in your opinion or just betting that there will be no winter storm warnings issued at all this winter?.

There could be warnings for other counties (i.e.: Carroll, Harford, Frederick, Fairfax, etc.).  MoCo could get a watch going to an advisory and I'm fine.  But the minute that county goes pink lunch is on me.

[Bob Chill]

I'll take the over. 1-3" front end thump changing to feezing rain with CAD in place = WSW

 

I also think the law of averages will toss us a well timed needle threaded 3-6"

[mattie g]

We're due one storm of 6-12" in the burbs.  It's been three f'ing years since we've had one, so it's going to happen this year.

DCA and Rose Hill will get 4" and like it.

[ravensrule]

There could be warnings for other counties (i.e.: Carroll, Harford, Frederick, Fairfax, etc.).  MoCo could get a watch going to an advisory and I'm fine.  But the minute that county goes pink lunch is on me.

Wow, ballsy call.

[ORH_wxman]

Wow, ballsy call.

 

 

Yes, I would have done hard verification numbers...otherwise you are at the mercy of a potential bad forecast shift that issues warnings when they might not be warranted.

[ravensrule]

Yes, I would have done hard verification numbers...otherwise you are at the mercy of a potential bad forecast shift that issues warnings when they might not be warranted.

Which has happened many times. I hope its not an expensive place.