2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[Deck Pic]

3.4 has been cooling...PDO region is torching.....nothing to see here

[mitchnick]

3.4 has been cooling...PDO region is torching.....nothing to see here

don't forget HM said a weak NINA would be better for blocking so if it must cool some it's not as bad as usual this year

[Deck Pic]

don't forget HM said a weak NINA would be better for blocking so if it must cool some it's not as bad as usual this year

 

yeah.as you know, I have been saying for months weak nina would be better than neutral for us this winter or at least as close as we can get....better for cold

[mitchnick]

SEPT QBO fell to 13.12 from 14.66

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

would be nice to see a bigger drop at the end of October as I fear 90/91 redux (though 85/86 and 99/00 still in the mix looking solely at QBO, which I know is ill advised.)

[NJwinter23]

SEPT QBO fell to 13.12 from 14.66

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

would be nice to see a bigger drop at the end of October as I fear 90/91 redux (though 85/86 and 99/00 still in the mix looking solely at QBO, which I know is ill advised.)

 

Well be careful what you wish for though. The package deal of a weaker nina development possibly benefiting the blocking situation all has to do with the poleward Aleutian high in a +QBO/nina connection. 

[mitchnick]

Well be careful what you wish for though. The package deal of a weaker nina development possibly benefiting the blocking situation all has to do with the poleward Aleutian high in a +QBO/nina connection. 

in the end, I'm just wishing for snow, so I can't go wrong there  

[NJwinter23]

in the end, I'm just wishing for snow, so I can't go wrong there  

 

Fair enough, would be nice to see every one get plastered this season. The regime may really not look good for the mid-atl early on here, but who the hell knows

[mattie g]

East based -NAO it looks like....but decent -EPO and neutralish PNA. However, it has a SE ridge. The pattern is pretty good for Lakes to New England and probably a toaster bath for the M.A.

 

I noticed last month that the Euro SIPS had less of a SE ridge than the Euro...so we'll see if it stays that way when the SIP comes out later this month.

 

Some things never change...

 

[Ji]

CFS2 is much wetter for this winter

[mitchnick]

CFS2 is much wetter for this winter

dag, you beat me to it; I've been too enthused about this coastal storm

comparing the last 2 precip monthly forecasts to the current one is pretty encouraging

oldest: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece1Mon.html

last forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece2Mon.html

current forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html

[mattie g]

Forget it, mitch.  Winter cancel:

 

It looks like it's saying what others have said if you're north of NYC it looks snowy, south of there a different picture.

 

The pattern being talked about would be generally decent to good even for NYC, just south of there would have problems.

 

[PhineasC]

Forget it, mitch.  Winter cancel:

 

 

 

If you look at his post history, he is either one dedicated troll or just really concerned we aren't getting the message.

[mitchnick]

Forget it, mitch.  Winter cancel:

 

 

 

 

 

If you look at his post history, he is either one dedicated troll or just really concerned we aren't getting the message.

 

if he had read the entire thread he would have understood that the Euro monthlies are just an average of the conditions and are not a forecast; rather a statistical chance of seeing those meteo conditions at 5H

anyway, this system upon us now is occurring with a big SE ridge soooooo....

[easternsnowman]

Others have said the same thing that it looks not great right now,things can still change. I think realistically what KA is thinking and some others in here have siad about it being close to an average winter will be the correct call

[Bob Chill]

I'm personally not the least bit concerned about the current lw global circ in the NH. Our winter will hinge on the PNA, NAO, and AO fighting against the PDO, EPO/WPO and ENSO. You don't need a PHD from MIT or an MBA from UNC to know that our winter will likely suck at times but could be good sometimes too. Just eat lunch at the KFC in NW DC and let this post put you at ease.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm personally not the least bit concerned about the current lw global circ in the NH. Our winter will hinge on the PNA, NAO, and AO fighting against the PDO, EPO/WPO and ENSO. You don't need a PHD from MIT or an MBA from UNC to know that our winter will likely suck at times but could be good sometimes too. Just eat lunch at the KFC in NW DC and let this post put you at ease.

And further muddying the waters we have to worry about the MJO, the lack of a STJ, the subsequent NW flow, the lack of QPF, temps AOA normal, constant trolling from a guy named IAN, Mitch talking about the CFSv2, Ji posting updates on what HM says, the GL low, and the SER. Not sure the MA, including NVA, can win the battle. We can look to the NAM, the GFS, the SREFS and RAP to boost our spirits, but the ECMWF will be there to crush our dreams. Think I'll skip the KFC in NWDC and opt for a couple BCB's from Wendy's in NWVA.

[clskinsfan]

And further muddying the waters we have to worry about the MJO, the lack of a STJ, the subsequent NW flow, the lack of QPF, temps AOA normal, constant trolling from a guy named IAN, Mitch talking about the CFSv2, Ji posting updates on what HM says, the GL low, and the SER. Not sure the MA, including NVA, can win the battle. We can look to the NAM, the GFS, the SREFS and RAP to boost our spirits, but the ECMWF will be there to crush our dreams. Think I'll skip the KFC in NWDC and opt for a couple BCB's from Wendy's in NWVA.

 

LMAO     

[Ian]

Axcuwx says our snow hold off till Jan and Feb.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742

Somehow they didn't paint above normal snow over 95 tho so i guess it's a start.

[clskinsfan]

Axcuwx says our snow hold off till Jan and Feb.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742

Somehow they didn't paint above normal snow over 95 tho so i guess it's a start.

 

Well overall that is a pretty suck ass forecast. Lets hope Accuwx's streak of bad forecasts continue.

[mattie g]

Atmospheric memory will lead to the snowiest winter *EVAR* in the Mid-Atlantic!!!11!!1!

[Bob Chill]

I know the pattern in Oct so far is basically meaningless but it has me intrigued. We are transitioning from a pretty impressive -pna and se ridge to a +pna and a potential deep ec trough and vortex spinning just north of the great lakes. The last 10-12 days of the month have some potential to be consistantly aob normal. 

 

This type of transitional pattern is what I envision for the upcoming winter. 2+/- week periods of good and bad wobbling back and forth. Storm track is a big issue as zwyts has pointed out multiple times. Storm track to the NW is definitely favored during the transition periods without a lot of help with hl blocking. . So we get wet and THEN cold. But there are various ways to get modest ns events during any +pna/ec trough.  I'd be happy with that to be honest. 

[easternsnowman]

I agree that October is meaningless as far as winter is concerned especially since no pattern stays in place for long and any warm weather you have it's better to have it now than November where it could last well into December. I do believe north and west of DC will do ok with snow this year....at least better than last year.

I know the pattern in Oct so far is basically meaningless but it has me intrigued. We are transitioning from a pretty impressive -pna and se ridge to a +pna and a potential deep ec trough and vortex spinning just north of the great lakes. The last 10-12 days of the month have some potential to be consistantly aob normal. 

 

This type of transitional pattern is what I envision for the upcoming winter. 2+/- week periods of good and bad wobbling back and forth. Storm track is a big issue as zwyts has pointed out multiple times. Storm track to the NW is definitely favored during the transition periods without a lot of help with hl blocking. . So we get wet and THEN cold. But there are various ways to get modest ns events during any +pna/ec trough.  I'd be happy with that to be honest. 

[HM]

 

I know the pattern in Oct so far is basically meaningless but it has me intrigued. We are transitioning from a pretty impressive -pna and se ridge to a +pna and a potential deep ec trough and vortex spinning just north of the great lakes. The last 10-12 days of the month have some potential to be consistantly aob normal. 

 

This type of transitional pattern is what I envision for the upcoming winter. 2+/- week periods of good and bad wobbling back and forth. Storm track is a big issue as zwyts has pointed out multiple times. Storm track to the NW is definitely favored during the transition periods without a lot of help with hl blocking. . So we get wet and THEN cold. But there are various ways to get modest ns events during any +pna/ec trough.  I'd be happy with that to be honest.

La Nina-like patterns typically look "good" this time of year because of shorter seasonal wavelengths. This same pattern in the winter would be an absolute torch with +WPO/main cold source in Siberia. It is no coincidence that for the last 5 years or so, late October-early November have behaved more like winter than autumn (okay, you know what I mean). This is why October temperature correlations to winter are basically meaningless. Our cold this time of year is usually the product of the shorter waves positioning correctly.

The blocking in the North Atlantic is from a slower mean background flow (PV retreated to Siberia) which allows for wave breaking. I don't think this would have occurred during the DJF season, but anything's possible/I could be wrong.

[WinterWxLuvr]

La Nina-like patterns typically look "good" this time of year because of shorter seasonal wavelengths. This same pattern in the winter would be an absolute torch with +WPO/main cold source in Siberia. It is no coincidence that for the last 5 years or so, late October-early November have behaved more like winter than autumn (okay, you know what I mean). This is why October temperature correlations to winter are basically meaningless. Our cold this time of year is usually the product of the shorter waves positioning correctly.

The blocking in the North Atlantic is from a slower mean background flow (PV retreated to Siberia) which allows for wave breaking. I don't think this would have occurred during the DJF season, but anything's possible/I could be wrong.

Back to the drawing board Bob.

[mattie g]

i.e. STFU, Bob.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

i.e. STF, Bob.

LOL, Bob is great, IMO. I was just teasing him.

[mattie g]

LOL, Bob is great, IMO. I was just teasing him.

 

Me too.  But HM wasn't.

 

[Bob Chill]

LOL- condsidering HM has forgotten more about weather than I'll ever know....i'll shut up.

 

The context of my post was more about having more variability this winter than being specific about the current pattern. I get the whole nina'ish pattern won't be broken until either the PDO cooperates (which would be an outlier year in an otherwise long term -pdo pattern) or grab another elusive nino to shake things up. 

 

The last couple winters have been a tale of 2 halves down here. Last year in particular was quite stark. Things have been different since late winter in NA and even the arctic than what we've been seeing persist. Yea, our high lows this summer make it look like it was a pretty warm summer but those who live here know it was actually a very pleasant summer overall. We never had a persistent heat wave. The se ridge kept getting knocked out of the way with continental air. We had out hot stretches, humid stretches, but we also had an unusual # of breaks from the heat compared to the previous 2-3 summers. 

 

Similar type of pattern continued into September. October looks to do the same. Yes, it was dang hot the first week but I'm fairly certain we'll get a period of cooler than normal coming up. 

 

My hunch is simply telling me that odds of getting stuck in a 4-6 week torch with an awful PAC seem lower this year. If HM is right it's because he's freekin smart. If I'm right it's because I'm lucky. 

[North Balti Zen]

All HM's post means to me is that I must now put every egg in the late October chance to snow as that is our only chance this winter...

[HM]

 

LOL- condsidering HM has forgotten more about weather than I'll ever know....i'll shut up.

 

The context of my post was more about having more variability this winter than being specific about the current pattern. I get the whole nina'ish pattern won't be broken until either the PDO cooperates (which would be an outlier year in an otherwise long term -pdo pattern) or grab another elusive nino to shake things up. 

 

The last couple winters have been a tale of 2 halves down here. Last year in particular was quite stark. Things have been different since late winter in NA and even the arctic than what we've been seeing persist. Yea, our high lows this summer make it look like it was a pretty warm summer but those who live here know it was actually a very pleasant summer overall. We never had a persistent heat wave. The se ridge kept getting knocked out of the way with continental air. We had out hot stretches, humid stretches, but we also had an unusual # of breaks from the heat compared to the previous 2-3 summers. 

 

Similar type of pattern continued into September. October looks to do the same. Yes, it was dang hot the first week but I'm fairly certain we'll get a period of cooler than normal coming up. 

 

My hunch is simply telling me that odds of getting stuck in a 4-6 week torch with an awful PAC seem lower this year. If HM is right it's because he's freekin smart. If I'm right it's because I'm lucky.

I meant nothing by it and I know you weren't suggesting OCT pattern=winter pattern. There is going to be winter at some point, there always is a period or two. That is inevitable. I just wanted to bring another perspective to the current global circulation and what that would have meant with winter-like waves. It's highly speculative and I could be wrong. In some of the "worst" analog years, there was some decent winter shots in the Mid Atlantic.