Ian Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Hey Matt, was this the pattern you were describing earlier? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40158-the-early-speculation-on-winter-2013-14/?p=2420431 is that legit? i don't see it anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 I'd agree there. All hope is pretty much lost there if we don't even have cold to work with. We'll have to keep an eye on the PV as we go into latter Oct and Nov...just as long as it doesn't deepen with height and establish itself over AK, I think we'll have a shot at some good cold this winter. The PAC is reverting to the stronger -PDO look like we kind of thought it would anyway. That GOA warm water was a mirage...so shallow on the sfc. It got eroded very fast recently and it looks like we are building warmth again SW of the Aleutians, so the best hope is to root for the Aleutian ridge to go massively poleward. for the outlook, temps are going to be the hard part...trying to figure out the months and the overall...snow is pretty much set and the parameters will just vary slightly depending on temps and when the cold months are....probably either 5-8", 6-10", 8-12", or 10-14".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 is that legit? i don't see it anywhere else. if it is i would view it as a huge + for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 is that legit? i don't see it anywhere else. I searched for it too and couldn't find it either so I can't say for certain something posted on the internet is not 100% accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 is that legit? i don't see it anywhere else. here's your answer http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40158-the-early-speculation-on-winter-2013-14/?p=2420670 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 here's your answer http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40158-the-early-speculation-on-winter-2013-14/?p=2420670 Ahh ok. Somehow their official will still paint snow over the NE urban corridor. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 This winter sucks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 This winter sucks again if HM hadn't said in the PHL forum that it means nothing for our winter, the fact that ice is now better than 2009 would have gotten me excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 if HM hadn't said in the PHL forum that it means nothing for our winter, the fact that ice is now better than 2009 would have gotten me excited If it means nothing then nothing is what we will get out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 This winter could play out like last,snowy in NYC while philly and dc get little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 This winter could play out like last,snowy in NYC while philly and dc get little. It COULD play out in a lot of ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 It COULD play out in a lot of ways. Yeah, and that's an odd way to phrase it. About a 1/3 of VA was above normal and another 1/3 was near normal and then there was DC. When you really slicing down mesoscale situations, micro climates and exact storm tracks. (EG- March 6 slight NW jog) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Easternsnowoman has cancelled winter for us in every subforum...sounds like we should shut this thread down now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 This winter could play out like last,snowy in NYC while philly and dc get little. Never post in this forum again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Never post in this forum again. Hey it's way too early to tell and I hope we all get snow and cold this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2 is really trying to build a solid weak El Nino http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2 is really trying to build a solid weak El Nino http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif yes, and it has DEC precip responding accordingly but JAN & FEB are not; in fact, they look horrendous even for a NINA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2. Wow. A dart board will work too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2. Wow. A dart board will work too. it's the only long range model to discuss we all have access to at this point plus, it changes daily so it smooths out the emotional valleys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 yes, and it has DEC precip responding accordingly but JAN & FEB are not; in fact, they look horrendous even for a NINA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html If we get an inch of liquid in January and it's all snow...we won't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2 is really trying to build a solid weak El Nino http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif latest 3.4 nino weekly was -0.2....All four nino's are minus now...looks like a neutral winter coming up at least at the start... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 latest 3.4 nino weekly was -0.2....All four nino's are minus now...looks like a neutral winter coming up at least at the start... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Is there any lag between ENSO conditions and expected weather conditions across the US? 1 month, 2 months or should it be rather immediate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Is there any lag between ENSO conditions and expected weather conditions across the US? 1 month, 2 months or should it be rather immediate? It is typically a 2-3 month lag for CONUS weather and changes in ENSO region. It is why ENSO is essentially ignored after October/November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 shouldnt we have had el nino conditions then last winter since we had el nino in the fall that faded by winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 shouldnt we have had el nino conditions then last winter since we had el nino in the fall that faded by winter? It was weak. We did see a Nino-ish pattern to some extent in late Jan and Feb 2013..and actually into March 2013. We just never got a big STJ connection going due to Nino never getting past its infancy stages...and the western ridging was a bit more muted than we'd see in a classic late winter mod/strong El Nino since we never got the PDO positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Anyone going to post the KA outlook? Does he still do the radio release on the eve of Autumn? Ended up being posted at another site. Check around and should be able to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 A little childish Howard right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 shouldnt we have had el nino conditions then last winter since we had el nino in the fall that faded by winter? You know, in a non-technical way, it is quite possible last year's warming was an El Nino in all true ways that adhere to the Earth-Atmosphere-solar system. Just because it failed to reach our definitions, doesn't mean it wasn't that "sloshing back" the Earth periodically goes through in the Tropical Pacific. In fact (as Will already pointed out), the late winter-early spring circulation mimicked El Nino conditions to some extent (there was a strong KW in March-April that prolonged effects). So the idea of a "neutral after La Nina" won't work too well this winter (e.g. 96-97) but a full blown 66-67 type of neutral may be a little too much, too. With the current downwelling Kelvin Wave across the eastern Pacific, I'm worried we develop a warm-cold-warm SSTA setup and these, especially combined with a -PDO, can be pretty warm/snowless. The good news is that the ENSO system will have plenty of time to alter again before DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 if HM hadn't said in the PHL forum that it means nothing for our winter, the fact that ice is now better than 2009 would have gotten me excited I said that because a lot of fuss is/was being made about 2013's sea ice and snow cover being ahead of some recent winters. The only correlation that matters is the SAI, in terms of winter predictions, and we won't have a good handle on that until at least mid-month. All of the snow and ice we are seeing is the product of a +NAM regime that has been generally dominating the warm season, bottling up the cold. For now, it basically says nothing about winter in the eastern US. Ultimately, we'll get the answer from the snow cover side to things. Just a reminder, last year's SAI to AO index worked out well and the AO was actually one of the most negative seasons! Despite New England's pummeling, the Mid Atlantic dealt with ...well you know the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 A little childish Howard right? Nope, American wanted it that way so we just moved along. As ususal, your needling sh*t while being in the dark at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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