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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.


Bob Chill

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I'd agree there. All hope is pretty much lost there if we don't even have cold to work with. We'll have to keep an eye on the PV as we go into latter Oct and Nov...just as long as it doesn't deepen with height and establish itself over AK, I think we'll have a shot at some good cold this winter.

 

The PAC is reverting to the stronger -PDO look like we kind of thought it would anyway. That GOA warm water was a mirage...so shallow on the sfc. It got eroded very fast recently and it looks like we are building warmth again SW of the Aleutians, so the best hope is to root for the Aleutian ridge to go massively poleward.

 

for the outlook, temps are going to be the hard part...trying to figure out the months and the overall...snow is pretty much set and  the parameters will just vary slightly depending on temps and when the cold months are....probably either 5-8", 6-10", 8-12", or 10-14"....

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It COULD play out in a lot of ways.

 

 

Yeah, and that's an odd way to phrase it. About a 1/3 of VA was above normal and another 1/3 was near normal and then there was DC. When you really slicing down mesoscale situations, micro climates and exact storm tracks. (EG- March 6 slight NW jog)

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yes, and it has DEC precip responding accordingly but JAN & FEB are not; in fact, they look horrendous even for a NINA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html

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latest 3.4 nino weekly was -0.2....All four nino's are minus now...looks like a neutral winter coming up at least at the start...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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latest 3.4 nino weekly was -0.2....All four nino's are minus now...looks like a neutral winter coming up at least at the start...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Is there any lag between ENSO conditions and expected weather conditions across the US?  1 month, 2 months or should it be rather immediate?

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Is there any lag between ENSO conditions and expected weather conditions across the US?  1 month, 2 months or should it be rather immediate?

 

 

It is typically a 2-3 month lag for CONUS weather and changes in ENSO region. It is why ENSO is essentially ignored after October/November.

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shouldnt we have had el nino conditions then last winter since we had el nino in the fall that faded by winter?

 

 

It was weak. We did see a Nino-ish pattern to some extent in late Jan and Feb 2013..and actually into March 2013. We just never got a big STJ connection going due to Nino never getting past its infancy stages...and the western ridging was a bit more muted than we'd see in a classic late winter mod/strong El Nino since we never got the PDO positive.

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shouldnt we have had el nino conditions then last winter since we had el nino in the fall that faded by winter?

 

You know, in a non-technical way, it is quite possible last year's warming was an El Nino in all true ways that adhere to the Earth-Atmosphere-solar system. Just because it failed to reach our definitions, doesn't mean it wasn't that "sloshing back" the Earth periodically goes through in the Tropical Pacific. In fact (as Will already pointed out), the late winter-early spring circulation mimicked El Nino conditions to some extent (there was a strong KW in March-April that prolonged effects).

 

So the idea of a "neutral after La Nina" won't work too well this winter (e.g. 96-97) but a full blown 66-67 type of neutral may be a little too much, too. With the current downwelling Kelvin Wave across the eastern Pacific, I'm worried we develop a warm-cold-warm SSTA setup and these, especially combined with a -PDO, can be pretty warm/snowless. The good news is that the ENSO system will have plenty of time to alter again before DJF.

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if HM hadn't said in the PHL forum that it means nothing for our winter, the fact that ice is now better than 2009 would have gotten me excited

 

I said that because a lot of fuss is/was being made about 2013's sea ice and snow cover being ahead of some recent winters. The only correlation that matters is the SAI, in terms of winter predictions, and we won't have a good handle on that until at least mid-month. All of the snow and ice we are seeing is the product of a +NAM regime that has been generally dominating the warm season, bottling up the cold. For now, it basically says nothing about winter in the eastern US. Ultimately, we'll get the answer from the snow cover side to things. Just a reminder, last year's SAI to AO index worked out well and the AO was actually one of the most negative seasons! Despite New England's pummeling, the Mid Atlantic dealt with ...well you know the story.

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