2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[PhineasC]

I am looking forward to watching mega blocking show up just long enough to give CHO a foot and us flurries followed by temps in the 50s here.

[NCWX]

OK I am getting confused .... I am in Stanley VA at about 1300 feet near the west side of Big Meadows.  Sounds like I could be be in the screw zone. Or am I wrong?

[Avdave]

OK I am getting confused .... I am in Stanley VA at about 1300 feet near the west side of Big Meadows.  Sounds like I could be be in the screw zone. Or am I wrong?

If it is a cold damming situation, you would be fine in the valley, ie; frozen precip. If the winds are from the south, you will flip to rain but at the summit of the BR mtns like Big Meadows would be snowing.

If this happens this winter like the others are talking about, you would have quite a bit of ZR and IP in your area of the valley and then flip to light rain or drizzle

[NCWX]

I am hoping this area does not get slammed with an ice event like 1998.  

[Bob Chill]

I am hoping this area does not get slammed with an ice event like 1998.

I wouldn't worry much about drawing precise conclusions from the discussion this far out. We're just making points and discussing possibilities. You're in a much better spot compared to most of us for snow. High probability that u get more snow than 90% of this subforum.

I never worry much about ice. We rarely get high impact ice regardless of enso and teleconnectons.

[Bob Chill]

We actually do better snow-wise if the height negative anomalies are located south of the Aleutian Islands which allows some riding just inland from the west coast. The idea that a big vortex has to be located near the Aleutians to get us cold is not true. For the east coast we do want warm air flooding into AK to get the east especially the northeast coast but at our latitude that's not a guarantee of anything without help in the Atlantic. At least aht is my view.

Your thoughts are always appreciated. Nice to see you in the winter thread and I totally agree with you. Matt and I were mostly pointing out that the Aleutian ridge and goa low are terrible without A LOT if help from the Atlantic.

The exact opposite certainly has its caveats.

Any thoughts on blocking this winter?

[Avdave]

I wouldn't worry much about drawing precise conclusions from the discussion this far out. We're just making points and discussing possibilities. You're in a much better spot compared to most of us for snow. High probability that u get more snow than 90% of this subforum.

I never worry much about ice. We rarely get high impact ice regardless of enso and teleconnectons.

Kind of depends on the type of system for the valley, they could also get shadowed or clipped if a coastal is to far east as well. I average about 23" here, I would say Stanley, VA averages about 26"

[Ian]

Ice storms around here are lol

Yeah that one time 20 years ago...

Meh

[Bob Chill]

Kind of depends on the type of system for the valley, they could also get shadowed or clipped if a coastal is to far east as well. I average about 23" here, I would say Stanley, VA averages about 26"

True. West of the br is rarely the jackpot with coastals. Luckily we won't have any of those to worry about this year.

You my friend are in a good spot this year too.

[Avdave]

True. West of the br is rarely the jackpot with coastals. Luckily we won't have any of those to worry about this year.

You my friend are in a good spot this year too.

We will see. I have expectations low this year. As long as some snow falls and stays around for a few days throughout winter, I should be ok, with saying that Im all in Bob. Oh there will be coastals but it will be Philly and north to Boston.

[PhineasC]

Ice storms around here are lol

Yeah that one time 20 years ago...

Meh

Hey, temps at 31.5 degrees during the day in February with 1 inch of rain falling in 3 hours is a classic setup for ice!

[WinterWxLuvr]

True. West of the br is rarely the jackpot with coastals. Luckily we won't have any of those to worry about this year.

You my friend are in a good spot this year too.

The coastals can be cruel back here for sure (March 09), but if they are close enough at least we don't have to worry about precip type. We do well with storms like last Dec 26, but you're right, coastals are a nerve racking experience for those of us in the west.

[mitchnick]

talking about an upcoming winter around here is always exciting; it's the conclusion that always sux

[WinterWxLuvr]

talking about an upcoming winter around here is always exciting; it's the conclusion that always sux

Last year was good for some, awful for others.

[mitchnick]

Last year was good for some, awful for others.

it was a "rough" year for snow lovers living at around 175' asl, believe me

at least Eastern is still online to go through those old threads

I had forgotten how questionable 2/10/10 bliz was (almost to the last minute) until I went through the thread leading up to it the other day

[Huffwx]

it was a "rough" year for snow lovers living at around 175' asl, believe me

at least Eastern is still online to go through those old threads

I had forgotten how questionable 2/10/10 bliz was (almost to the last minute) until I went through the thread leading up to it the other day

 

Our 3-5 inches down here failed. 

[Ian]

it was a "rough" year for snow lovers living at around 175' asl, believe me

at least Eastern is still online to go through those old threads

I had forgotten how questionable 2/10/10 bliz was (almost to the last minute) until I went through the thread leading up to it the other day

that type of storm almost never works out around here but it was modeled fairly well considering

[ORH_wxman]

that type of storm almost never works out around here but it was modeled fairly well considering

 

And rarely screws SNE...yet that Miller B ended up giving 10-20" of snow to DCA/BWI and a bust up here. Was a bizarre storm in a pretty incredible winter.

[Deck Pic]

Your thoughts are always appreciated. Nice to see you in the winter thread and I totally agree with you. Matt and I were mostly pointing out that the Aleutian ridge and goa low are terrible without A LOT if help from the Atlantic.

The exact opposite certainly has its caveats.

Any thoughts on blocking this winter?

An Aleutian ridge is more hostile to the storm track than to cold unless you have a southern stream. I believe we had an Aleutian ridge for some of the big -PDO winters of the 60s. But we had a southern stream for all of them. Aleutian ridge can be a cold pattern but the cold anomaly is to our north so the storm track sucks as usual.

[easternsnowman]

the good forecasters are pretty much saying a cold snowy winter NYC north south of there may be cold also as zwsts was saying, but snow we have to wait and see.

[Bob Chill]

the good forecasters are pretty much saying a cold snowy winter NYC north south of there may be cold also as zwsts was saying, but snow we have to wait and see.

Yep, pretty easy to assume the NE stands the best shot because of the likely storm track to our west. Miller B's will be the big snow producers for the cities along the coast and we probably get a good hit from a miller be 1 out of every 5 (or oven lower odds).

I think it's fair enough to say that we can be slightly optimistic compared to previous years. I don't think the cold will get locked over in eurasia like the last couple. And I believe we will get more help from the NAO than last year. Heck, a favorable NAO was basically non-existent last year.

Our chances for anything decent will rely on the more volatile and harder to predict teleconnections in the lr. The alignment of the PNA and NAO are tough even at d10 let along months out. It's a lot of wait and see.

I personally doubt any widespread 6"+ events our I95 corridor. I hope I'm wrong of course.

[ORH_wxman]

An Aleutian ridge is more hostile to the storm track than to cold unless you have a southern stream. I believe we had an Aleutian ridge for some of the big -PDO winters of the 60s. But we had a southern stream for all of them. Aleutian ridge can be a cold pattern but the cold anomaly is to our north so the storm track sucks as usual.

 

 

Something like '64-'65 is the type of winter where DC can do ok in a very Nina/Aleutian Ridge type setup. It was aided by a solid -NAO though. Without that, the winter probably would have been horrible. The Aleutian ridge got poleward enough during the month of January 1965 to dump a ton of cold into N.A.

 

I would add that the winter wasn't that great, but tolerable considering it was a La Nina and a very La Nina PAC.

[Bob Chill]

ORH, I meant to reply to your reply to my post about temps stealing our snow. I totally agree that .5-1 degree increase in temps in the last however many decades is probably statistically insignificant irt reducing our snow here in the MA. You brought up good points about the 50's having a similar type of pattern that simply sucked for DC snow.

Since I wasn't around back then it's hard to be reflective using just data alone. I've lived in the MA with one 7 year break since 1972 so most of my reflective thoughts start in the early 70's. Maybe it is just a period of bad setups for snow and temps over the last 10 years (similar to other periods before I was born) but it really feels like we are losing it on the margins early and late and also the r/s line seems to be further N/W way more often than it used to be.

I hope it is just part of natural variability but it doesn't feel like it down here. It feels like we aren't going back to "the way it was". We've done well with big storms the last decade but we're really doing bad with the small ones. In the past, our typical winters we're made up of small events (2-4 / 3-5) and we seem to have a knack for ending up on the wrong side of those lately.

The Potomac River in DC is an indicator of sorts. It used to freeze quite often from shore to shore around the 14th street bridge. Now when it happens it's newsworthy. It's a bit of a testament to how hard it is to get prolonged cold this far south lately. You wouldn't think that .5-1 degree warmer on average would have that much of a profound affect but maybe in some ways it does because inside of the averages there are other persistent things going on that MA winter weather lovers have little to be happy about. Is it really permanent? I suppose scientifically it shouldn't be but it sure is starting to feel like it.

[Deck Pic]

Something like '64-'65 is the type of winter where DC can do ok in a very Nina/Aleutian Ridge type setup. It was aided by a solid -NAO though. Without that, the winter probably would have been horrible. The Aleutian ridge got poleward enough during the month of January 1965 to dump a ton of cold into N.A.

 

I would add that the winter wasn't that great, but tolerable considering it was a La Nina and a very La Nina PAC.

 

even something like Feb 1967 or Feb 1979 had wretched PACS...the latter was classic -PNA/Aleutian ridge....yet it was one of our coldest FEBS...perhaps coldest ever at DCA and had a southern stream.....of course the Atlantic was near

perfect....

 

I guess my point is, we have so much more of a margin of error and so much greater chance of threading the needle and taking advantage of split flows and PNA spikes when we have a southern stream...and we only have one in NINO's and neutrals after ninos or general warm ENSO periods....so for me this winter is about getting cold...that is our best chance at getting near climo...that is the wildcard...during the core snow production window of winter, the storm track will be unfavorable...that is a virtual guarantee, but there are still a number of ways as we have discussed at getting snow events here....I think the big wildcard this winter is cold...that gives us more chances to thread the needle during a PNA spike or split flow.... or front thump or a cutoff or a clipper or even get the dummy end of a miller B....I think this winter is about capitalizing on what we know we are going to get rather than hoping for the underlying mean pattern to be different..and the best way to do that is to be cold

[ORH_wxman]

ORH, I meant to reply to your reply to my post about temps stealing our snow. I totally agree that .5-1 degree increase in temps in the last however many decades is probably statistically insignificant irt reducing our snow here in the MA. You brought up good points about the 50's having a similar type of pattern that simply sucked for DC snow.

Since I wasn't around back then it's hard to be reflective using just data alone. I've lived in the MA with one 7 year break since 1972 so most of my reflective thoughts start in the early 70's. Maybe it is just a period of bad setups for snow and temps over the last 10 years (similar to other periods before I was born) but it really feels like we are losing it on the margins early and late and also the r/s line seems to be further N/W way more often than it used to be.

I hope it is just part of natural variability but it doesn't feel like it down here. It feels like we aren't going back to "the way it was". We've done well with big storms the last decade but we're really doing bad with the small ones. In the past, our typical winters we're made up of small events (2-4 / 3-5) and we seem to have a knack for ending up on the wrong side of those lately.

The Potomac River in DC is an indicator of sorts. It used to freeze quite often from shore to shore around the 14th street bridge. Now when it happens it's newsworthy. It's a bit of a testament to how hard it is to get prolonged cold this far south lately. You wouldn't think that .5-1 degree warmer on average would have that much of a profound affect but maybe in some ways it does because inside of the averages there are other persistent things going on that MA winter weather lovers have little to be happy about. Is it really permanent? I suppose scientifically it shouldn't be but it sure is starting to feel like it.

 

 

There's definitely some loss on the extreme margins...there has to be when you warm about 1F. It is actually most noticeable in November. I just wouldn't read too much into a 34F rainstorm possibly being a 31F snowstorm in 1965...unlikely in most setups. We're talking about the difference of a half degree celsius at 925-850mb...usually the differences we notice are because of crappy storm tracks or an airmass that simply would not have supported snow anyway even if we were a few tenths colder. A low tracking through the Ohio valley was a crappy setup in 1970 and it still is. It might just be a marginally worse setup now.

 

There's surely some occasional exceptions...maybe a 33F slop job would have been 1-2" back in the day on certain specific storm setups.

 

 

 

 

If there is another thing to take away as well, is that the 1960s (and some of the 1970s/early 80s) were a pretty special period for winter in context...very cold.  It is unlikely that we could match that type of period again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

For snowfall though, its clear that this is a bad type of regime for DC. The -PDO with a dearth of El Nino events (obviously '09-'10 not withstanding) is quite reminiscent of the late 1940s through mid 1950s. However, fairly potent El Ninos within the -PDO regime tend do produce very favorably for DC...we saw it in '09-'10, and back in '57-'58, '63-'64, and '65-'66. Get a few of those and a few neutrals following (rather than potent La Ninas) and you are likely to see much better results in that region.

 

And yes, you aren't going to freeze the potomac as often now. Esp vs the 60s/70s when we had some historic cold outbreaks.

[ORH_wxman]

even something like Feb 1967 or Feb 1979 had wretched PACS...the latter was classic -PNA/Aleutian ridge....yet it was one of our coldest FEBS...perhaps coldest ever at DCA and had a southern stream.....of course the Atlantic was near

perfect....

 

I guess my point is, we have so much more of a margin of error and so much greater chance of threading the needle and taking advantage of split flows and PNA spikes when we have a southern stream...and we only have one in NINO's and neutrals after ninos or general warm ENSO periods....so for me this winter is about getting cold...that is our best chance at getting near climo...that is the wildcard...during the core snow production window of winter, the storm track will be unfavorable...that is a virtual guarantee, but there are still a number of ways as we have discussed at getting snow events here....I think the big wildcard this winter is cold...that gives us more chances to thread the needle during a PNA spike or split flow.... or front thump or a cutoff or a clipper or even get the dummy end of a miller B....I think this winter is about capitalizing on what we know we are going to get rather than hoping for the underlying mean pattern to be different..and the best way to do that is to be cold

 

 

I'd agree there. All hope is pretty much lost there if we don't even have cold to work with. We'll have to keep an eye on the PV as we go into latter Oct and Nov...just as long as it doesn't deepen with height and establish itself over AK, I think we'll have a shot at some good cold this winter.

 

The PAC is reverting to the stronger -PDO look like we kind of thought it would anyway. That GOA warm water was a mirage...so shallow on the sfc. It got eroded very fast recently and it looks like we are building warmth again SW of the Aleutians, so the best hope is to root for the Aleutian ridge to go massively poleward.

[Bob Chill]

Great graphs ORH! I love visual data. I think the trend channel says a lot of things I don't like. We'll certainly break below it some years but for the time being it's probably best to accept the reality of not expecting the icebox anytime soon and they will be fewer and far between unless we can get a good volcano or something to blow up. lol

 

[NJwinter23]

I'd agree there. All hope is pretty much lost there if we don't even have cold to work with. We'll have to keep an eye on the PV as we go into latter Oct and Nov...just as long as it doesn't deepen with height and establish itself over AK, I think we'll have a shot at some good cold this winter.

 

The PAC is reverting to the stronger -PDO look like we kind of thought it would anyway. That GOA warm water was a mirage...so shallow on the sfc. It got eroded very fast recently and it looks like we are building warmth again SW of the Aleutians, so the best hope is to root for the Aleutian ridge to go massively poleward.

 

The good news is that the +QBO should help promote this. Periods of both good and bad seem like a very reasonable expectation at this early stage, though probably more bad than good in the mid-atl given the regime. 

 

And how about that -PDO

 

[ORH_wxman]

The good news is that the +QBO should help promote this. Periods of both good and bad seem like a very reasonable expectation at this early stage, though probably more bad than good in the mid-atl given the regime. 

 

And how about that -PDO

 

 

 

 

Yep, as noted above, the warmth in the GOA was a shallow mirage on top of a very cold subsurface...simply promoted by the anomalous high pressure that sat there for weeks. It only took a few days of disturbing the water to revert back to the strong -PDO look. The warmth to the south of the Aleutians never really left either. It started to weaken some, but was always there. We'd want to see a cold pool form there to have a +PDO look.

 

But its been like pulling teeth to get the PDO positive....even during the strong El Nino of 2009-2010, we only managed to get the PDO in mildly positive territory. Its been a very strong pullback each time by the PDO recently to its current base state of negative. I'm sure it played at least partial role in the demise of last year's weak Nino as well.

[mitchnick]

Hey Matt, was this the pattern you were describing earlier?  

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40158-the-early-speculation-on-winter-2013-14/?p=2420431