2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[mappy]

Talk about depressing statistics, thank the snow gods I moved back to PA.

Westminster wasn't working out for you?

[Eskimo Joe]

Westminster wasn't working out for you?

Wife works for Harrisburg Community College so I'm moving a bit closer for her. Plus I Am tired of 33 and rain

[Bodhi Cove]

Woo hoo!   Friday the 13th Birthday snow.  Of course! 

 

Snow on Dec. 7, 13 & 28.

Hey, I correctly pick 2 of the Pick 4 numbers, on a fairly regular basis.

And I'll probably get the same jackpot with those snow days...

 

 

Pretty nice overrunning event on Friday the 13th. 

 

fri13th.JPG

 

[Huffwx]

So, no one talked with KA about this winter? Serious? 

[WEATHER53]

So, no one talked with KA about this winter? Serious? 

There were issues from several parties that could not be resolved.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

Snow cover looks good, but it looked good last year too....Winter Cancel.  2016 - 2017 or Bust.

[North Balti Zen]

There were issues from several parties that could not be resolved.

 

KA is subtropics? Good lord, never saw that coming...

[Huffwx]

There were issues from several parties that could not be resolved.

 

 

That's too bad. Did he just not release an outlook or what? I know that radio station use to share it. 

[mitchnick]

There were issues from several parties that could not be resolved.

just tell him nobody listens to JI

[Deck Pic]

That's too bad. Did he just not release an outlook or what? I know that radio station use to share it.

It's too bad. This has been a tradition. I don't know all the reasons, but this will be the 1st year since 2001-02 we don't have his outlook. I remember one year calling a non-weather friend from a plane as I was about to take off on a long flight, and had them go to the board and read me the outlook. They had no idea what any of it meant. I was just like "go here and look for a thread from weather53 that says something about KA and read it to me". I don't know Keith, but the internet is always going to be full of detractors. I don't recall there being issues last winter or this summer any different than other years. Most people appreciated the outlook and assessed it fairly. So not sure what changed.

[Bob Chill]

2013266.png

 

Snow cover looks good, but it looked good last year too....Winter Cancel.  2016 - 2017 or Bust.

 

 

The correlation between siberian snowcover and subsequent higher chances of a -AO does seem to have merit though. We had a huge -AO in December last year. It was rendered useless by a dominant -pna in Dec as well and other disturbing features in the npac / goa. There was just no delivery system to get the cold air in the east coast until much later in the winter. 

 

This map sums up our agony pretty well. What a total waste of HL blocking cooperation.

 

 

One thing about Dr. Cohen's study is that it isn't the anomoly that seems to have the effect. It's the rate of increase throughout the month. Starting off Oct with a big + snowcover anom is actually a bad thing. We want a ramp up throughout the month. Especially during the second half. Not starting off solid and finishing meh. 

 

Call it a nina hangover or bad luck or whatever but the Dec pattern last year really sucked the big one in the pac and it was hard as heck to break down and move on. It did though and winter delivered in the temp department. We could have easily hit 75% of climo last year but again, just an incessant string of bad luck plagued us from door to door. 

 

IMO- odds against a similar setup in the pac during Dec are pretty low. We don't have enso on our side but it also doesn't appear to be a big negative this year either. Things are different this year and I personally expect different results During Dec "if" we get blocking again. 

 

I believe the source region for cold will be much more favorable. The pesky siberian HP that has kept russia and china in the deep freeze may not develop this year. Arctic patterns did a 180 this summer compared to the previous 4. We may actually have true arctic air to tap (modified of course) at times this winter and not just cold continental stuff that apparently is always 1 degree too warm for snow. lol

 

 

I've been saving various maps but I'm not ready to make a detailed post but my thoughts above aren't without research. I'm not implying a solid winter though. Just stating that none of us should expect the same outcome if we get an early winter -ao in place. If anything we should probably hedge on the opposite happening. I've posted a couple times about me thinking we go cold for at least half of Dec and these are some of the reasons why I'm thinking that. 

 

If the AO rages positive in late Nov then all bets are off and we're screwed early on. 

[Deck Pic]

 

 

The correlation between siberian snowcover and subsequent higher chances of a -AO does seem to have merit though. We had a huge -AO in December last year. It was rendered useless by a dominant -pna in Dec as well and other disturbing features in the npac / goa. There was just no delivery system to get the cold air in the east coast until much later in the winter. 

 

This map sums up our agony pretty well. What a total waste of HL blocking cooperation.

 

Dec h5 anoms.JPG

 

One thing about Dr. Cohen's study is that it isn't the anomoly that seems to have the effect. It's the rate of increase throughout the month. Starting off Oct with a big + snowcover anom is actually a bad thing. We want a ramp up throughout the month. Especially during the second half. Not starting off solid and finishing meh. 

 

Call it a nina hangover or bad luck or whatever but the Dec pattern last year really sucked the big one in the pac and it was hard as heck to break down and move on. It did though and winter delivered in the temp department. We could have easily hit 75% of climo last year but again, just an incessant string of bad luck plagued us from door to door. 

 

IMO- odds against a similar setup in the pac during Dec are pretty low. We don't have enso on our side but it also doesn't appear to be a big negative this year either. Things are different this year and I personally expect different results During Dec "if" we get blocking again. 

 

I believe the source region for cold will be much more favorable. The pesky siberian HP that has kept russia and china in the deep freeze may not develop this year. Arctic patterns did a 180 this summer compared to the previous 4. We may actually have true arctic air to tap (modified of course) at times this winter and not just cold continental stuff that apparently is always 1 degree too warm for snow. lol

 

 

I've been saving various maps but I'm not ready to make a detailed post but my thoughts above aren't without research. I'm not implying a solid winter though. Just stating that none of us should expect the same outcome if we get an early winter -ao in place. If anything we should probably hedge on the opposite happening. I've posted a couple times about me thinking we go cold for at least half of Dec and these are some of the reasons why I'm thinking that. 

 

If the AO rages positive in late Nov then all bets are off and we're screwed early on. 

 

 

nice post...the ultimate problem is the storm track....and that looks to be abysmal as usual...cold helps, because these 1-2" events stick and stick around...they are higher impact.....we can nickel and dime better....it also gives us more of a window to thread the needle and phase something...also more opportunities to CAD and front thump for longer before the switch over, and maybe the change over is just to drizzle or sleet or ZR....I don't like the idea of a good storm track, but cold always make winter more fun....for the delusional people who want it to be 65 in between massive all snow events, they aren't going to be happy, though they never really are....

[Bob Chill]

Matt, we're totally on the same page. Big juicy miller a's are off the table unless we accidentally get lucky with spit flow at some point. yea, it can happen but....expecting it or calling for it is not the way to go at all. 

 

Front end miller B / dryslot can deliver or even a front end lake cutter end as rain type of deal. All we needed last year was better cold in place in front. I think at the very least we have a better chance at having the cold compared to what happened during the first half of winter last year. 

 

If the stars align and everything goes right I will happily eat my early season words and call BUST as I'm shoveling. 

[mitchnick]

 

 

The correlation between siberian snowcover and subsequent higher chances of a -AO does seem to have merit though. We had a huge -AO in December last year. It was rendered useless by a dominant -pna in Dec as well and other disturbing features in the npac / goa. There was just no delivery system to get the cold air in the east coast until much later in the winter. 

 

This map sums up our agony pretty well. What a total waste of HL blocking cooperation.

 

Dec h5 anoms.JPG

 

One thing about Dr. Cohen's study is that it isn't the anomoly that seems to have the effect. It's the rate of increase throughout the month. Starting off Oct with a big + snowcover anom is actually a bad thing. We want a ramp up throughout the month. Especially during the second half. Not starting off solid and finishing meh. 

 

Call it a nina hangover or bad luck or whatever but the Dec pattern last year really sucked the big one in the pac and it was hard as heck to break down and move on. It did though and winter delivered in the temp department. We could have easily hit 75% of climo last year but again, just an incessant string of bad luck plagued us from door to door. 

 

IMO- odds against a similar setup in the pac during Dec are pretty low. We don't have enso on our side but it also doesn't appear to be a big negative this year either. Things are different this year and I personally expect different results During Dec "if" we get blocking again. 

 

I believe the source region for cold will be much more favorable. The pesky siberian HP that has kept russia and china in the deep freeze may not develop this year. Arctic patterns did a 180 this summer compared to the previous 4. We may actually have true arctic air to tap (modified of course) at times this winter and not just cold continental stuff that apparently is always 1 degree too warm for snow. lol

 

 

I've been saving various maps but I'm not ready to make a detailed post but my thoughts above aren't without research. I'm not implying a solid winter though. Just stating that none of us should expect the same outcome if we get an early winter -ao in place. If anything we should probably hedge on the opposite happening. I've posted a couple times about me thinking we go cold for at least half of Dec and these are some of the reasons why I'm thinking that. 

 

If the AO rages positive in late Nov then all bets are off and we're screwed early on. 

 

regardless of what Cohen says in his study, I can only believe that above normal NH snow cover helps

otoh, in the end, as you say, delivery, and as Matt points out, track, seals the deal for us this far south of the Pole

[Huffwx]

Appreciate your thoughts and I and I agree. It has been a huge deal because for me it was like the "official" kick off of winter tracking. He always batted lead off and everyone else followed with outlooks.

 

 

 

 

 

It's too bad. This has been a tradition. I don't know all the reasons, but this will be the 1st year since 2001-02 we don't have his outlook. I remember one year calling a non-weather friend from a plane as I was about to take off on a long flight, and had them go to the board and read me the outlook. They had no idea what any of it meant. I was just like "go here and look for a thread from weather53 that says something about KA and read it to me". I don't know Keith, but the internet is always going to be full of detractors. I don't recall there being issues last winter or this summer any different than other years. Most people appreciated the outlook and assessed it fairly. So not sure what changed.

[Deck Pic]

more of the same...enso regions look abysmally useless....and the northern pac supports a fat Aleutian ridge....which supports a storm track to our west.....

 

 

[Bob Chill]

regardless of what Cohen says in his study, I can only believe that above normal NH snow cover helps

otoh, in the end, as you say, delivery, and as Matt points out, track, seals the deal for us this far south of the Pole

 

It only helps if we can get a siberian express setup. Which used to happen a lot in the 80's and to a lesser extent in the 90's. Times have changed. Have no idea why. My speculation is the atlantic side of the ice cap being smaller than ever along with warmer sst in the n atl from the amo. Seems to be some connection. 

 

What we need is the pv to be on our dang side of the globe early on. That thing has been locked and loaded over russia far to often lately. 

 

This is dec h5 anoms from 06-12

 

 

That predominant HP on the alt side of n russia has been a big thorn in our side lately. There are exceptions to it like 09-10 but still, that feature among a few other things are the main reasons why europe/russia/china have been getting hit hard with cold while we struggle to freeze the tidal basin. 

 

 

The 2012 dec h5 anom map I posted this morning shows it really clearly. It's worth paying attention to this Dec. I'm kinda thinking that the ice bounce we saw this year has some sort of affect in not allowing it to occur this year. 

[Bob Chill]

more of the same...enso regions look abysmally useless....and the northern pac supports a fat Aleutian ridge....which supports a storm track to our west.....

 

 

 

yea, it's a bummer for sure in some respects. However, a west based nao can help and it's been elusive for a while. A well placed block can help us with a front end thump and keep the rain further west or even help shear things apart in the middle of the country and give us some long lost overruning. Kinda reaching here but I think you know what i'm getting at. 

 

One thing is certain, no blocking over gl and a fat aleutian ridge spells disaster. 

[snowfan]

While reading the recent posts in this thread I began to think of the last big ice storm this region has had. I can't remember it, but if we do get some solid CAD in the area with a less than ideal track........

[WxUSAF]

yea, it's a bummer for sure in some respects. However, a west based nao can help and it's been elusive for a while. A well placed block can help us with a front end thump and keep the rain further west or even help shear things apart in the middle of the country and give us some long lost overruning. Kinda reaching here but I think you know what i'm getting at. 

 

One thing is certain, no blocking over gl and a fat aleutian ridge spells disaster. 

The WPO is tricky for us.  I found this helpful and fairly recent article about its winter impacts on the continent: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007JCLI2048.1

 

A strongly positive WPO (strong Aleutian low) "bring maritime air and warmth to the eastern seaboard, especially the mid-Atlantic region".

 

"In the opposite phase (weakened Aleutian low), NPO/WP is associated with lower temperatures to the east of the Rockies, consistent with the propensity for cold air outbreaks in this NPO/WP phase".

 

As you state, a strongly -WPO also screws us because it creates a deep western/Rockies trough and we get downstream ridging.  Reading into things, I think a weakly positive WPO probably works out best.  

[Deck Pic]

The WPO is tricky for us.  I found this helpful and fairly recent article about its winter impacts on the continent: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007JCLI2048.1

 

A strongly positive WPO (strong Aleutian low) "bring maritime air and warmth to the eastern seaboard, especially the mid-Atlantic region".

 

"In the opposite phase (weakened Aleutian low), NPO/WP is associated with lower temperatures to the east of the Rockies, consistent with the propensity for cold air outbreaks in this NPO/WP phase".

 

As you state, a strongly -WPO also screws us because it creates a deep western/Rockies trough and we get downstream ridging.  Reading into things, I think a weakly positive WPO probably works out best.  

 

and it has been a stable default feature since we went strong -PDO phase in 2007-08...it is hard to break the tendency...all other things being equal...we will have an aleutian ridge,...and a bad mean storm track

 

Without 2009-10

 

[Bob Chill]

Good posts MN and Matt. Agree 100% about the aleutian ridge/goa being a pain in the you know what. 

 

2010-11 is a good example of how a favorable nao (west based) and help fight it in the temp department. Yea, storm track screams miller B but it's another take what we can get winter so wherever the help comes from, I'll take it.

 

The whole 10-11 had this type of look but Dec really shows a stark example of what can help when the pac is ghastly:

 

 

 

[Deck Pic]

Good posts MN and Matt. Agree 100% about the aleutian ridge/goa being a pain in the you know what. 

 

2010-11 is a good example of how a favorable nao (west based) and help fight it in the temp department. Yea, storm track screams miller B but it's another take what we can get winter so wherever the help comes from, I'll take it.

 

The whole 10-11 had this type of look but Dec really shows a stark example of what can help when the pac is ghastly:

 

 

 

dec2010.JPG

 

That setup could have worked with a southern stream....it had the makings of a split flow....if nina was weaker it may have been a decent winter down here....when you look at our big snow winters that were neutrall, 60-61, 78-79, 81-82...the pac was not great, but it was cold and we had a southern stream because they were in warm enso periods......we haven't had a southern stream in 4 years....it isn't just magically going to appear unfortunately...not without a nino...

[aldie 22]

I would take less snow than last year here if what we got stuck around a little longer and actually layed on the concrete for a minute

[Bob Chill]

That setup could have worked with a southern stream....it had the makings of a split flow....if nina was weaker it may have been a decent winter down here....when you look at our big snow winters that were neutrall, 60-61, 78-79, 81-82...the pac was not great, but it was cold and we had a southern stream because they were in warm enso periods......we haven't had a southern stream in 4 years....it isn't just magically going to appear unfortunately...not without a nino...

 

Yep. It was a heartbreaking year after the late december debacle. We had no idea at the time how horrifying the next 2 would be though. Coming on the heels of 09-10 had us all out of sorts with reality. 

 

I don't think a big aleution ridge/goa low will be parked this year though. They will show their faces of course but this winter has some earmarks of natural variability at least. I'm sticking with my wag of having windows of opp each month Dec-Mar without having to suffer through 4-6 weeks of hell before "the pattern change". 

 

If we can get some amplification into a block then any shortwave exiting the rockies stands a chance at running under us. Even without the gulf the can snow pretty nicely. Just ask St. Mary's County, Orange County and RIC. LOL

[Huffwx]

So, sounds like most are moving towards--

 

Colder winter than last year, some blocking, crappy pacific. 

 

Ice storm threat is raised. Many lows riding up into IN/KY- reform east of ACY to NYC. Good winter for Chicago to STL back up torwards Omaha??

 

If we can get strong blocking and -EPO could get the coast to coast cold trough. That could take the polar jet and suppress it for a storm or three. (Ala Feb 06)

 

If I were taking a stab for general numbers-- temps near normal, snowfall below normal, higher number of snow to slop events. (little drips)

[Deck Pic]

Yep. It was a heartbreaking year after the late december debacle. We had no idea at the time how horrifying the next 2 would be though. Coming on the heels of 09-10 had us all out of sorts with reality. 

 

I don't think a big aleution ridge/goa low will be parked this year though. They will show their faces of course but this winter has some earmarks of natural variability at least. I'm sticking with my wag of having windows of opp each month Dec-Mar without having to suffer through 4-6 weeks of hell before "the pattern change". 

 

If we can get some amplification into a block then any shortwave exiting the rockies stands a chance at running under us. Even without the gulf the can snow pretty nicely. Just ask St. Mary's County, Orange County and RIC. LOL

 

that is our hope...some 3/9/99 super bomb...though I am sure Hollywood MD is due for another 6"+

 

I think our best chance for something to amplify on its own would be early or late season when climo can be a neutralizer...otherwise for a low coming out of the south we need a times phase...split flow is almost a must..

[WinterWxLuvr]

So, sounds like most are moving towards--

Colder winter than last year, some blocking, crappy pacific.

Ice storm threat is raised. Many lows riding up into IN/KY- reform east of ACY to NYC. Good winter for Chicago to STL back up torwards Omaha??

If we can get strong blocking and -EPO could get the coast to coast cold trough. That could take the polar jet and suppress it for a storm or three. (Ala Feb 06)

If I were taking a stab for general numbers-- temps near normal, snowfall below normal, higher number of snow to slop events. (little drips)

If lows are far enough east in Ky they can bring fun times to this part of Va, not quite as fun at lower elevations down near DC. Not sure about your part of Va.

[usedtobe]

Yep. It was a heartbreaking year after the late december debacle. We had no idea at the time how horrifying the next 2 would be though. Coming on the heels of 09-10 had us all out of sorts with reality. 

 

I don't think a big aleution ridge/goa low will be parked this year though. They will show their faces of course but this winter has some earmarks of natural variability at least. I'm sticking with my wag of having windows of opp each month Dec-Mar without having to suffer through 4-6 weeks of hell before "the pattern change". 

 

If we can get some amplification into a block then any shortwave exiting the rockies stands a chance at running under us. Even without the gulf the can snow pretty nicely. Just ask St. Mary's County, Orange County and RIC. LOL

 

We actually do better snow-wise if the height negative anomalies are located south of the Aleutian Islands which allows some riding just inland from the west coast.   The idea that a big vortex has to be located near the Aleutians to get us cold is not true.   For the east coast we do want warm air flooding into AK to get the east especially the northeast coast but at our latitude that's not a guarantee of anything without help in the Atlantic.  At least aht is my view. 

[Huffwx]

If lows are far enough east in Ky they can bring fun times to this part of Va, not quite as fun at lower elevations down near DC. Not sure about your part of Va.

 

 

Varies, we tend to at least remain ice due to literally being at the base of the Blue Ridge. So, we get less snow than DC but remain frozen when they are rain.