MDstorm Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Updated Euro seasonal forecasts shows warm neutral conditions/bordering on weak nino (more west-based). Of course last year, the Euro did not lock in on the correct winter ENSO state until October. The next month should be "telling", as they say. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Updated Euro seasonal forecasts shows warm neutral conditions/bordering on weak nino (more west-based). Of course last year, the Euro did not lock in on the correct winter ENSO state until October. The next month should be "telling", as they say. MDstorm Eh. I only care about what the CFSv2 has to say. Where's mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Eh. I only care about what the CFSv2 has to say. Where's mitch? enjoying a true "fall" cold frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 16, 2013 Author Share Posted September 16, 2013 This is the worst winter to try and make sense of at longs leads since I joined eastern in 06. Odds are stacked against a favorable stj. Everything else is on the table. That probably won't anytime soon either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 This is the worst winter to try and make sense of at longs leads since I joined eastern in 06. Odds are stacked against a favorable stj. Everything else is on the table. That probably won't anytime soon either. since it, practically speaking, can't get any worse than the last 2 years, it can only be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 since it, practically speaking, can't get any worse than the last 2 years, it can only be better i was looking at DC snowfall and the last two years have been brutal....in the last 125 years of record DC has....... 50" or more.....2.......2%... 40"-49.9"........7.......6%... 30"-39.9"......13.....10%... 20"-29.9"......25.....20%... 10"-19.9"......43.....34%... T-9.9"...........35.....28%... T-19.9".........78.....62%... 20"+.............47.....38% the chances aren't good but it doesn't mean this year will be less than 20" for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 This is the worst winter to try and make sense of at longs leads since I joined eastern in 06. Odds are stacked against a favorable stj. Everything else is on the table. That probably won't anytime soon either. On the good side they did say it would be an active Hurricane season this year... So the exact opposite of what all the signals are telling us is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 am I correct in recalling that the KA winter forecast comes next week with the first day of fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 People at work have been talking at length about the Farmer's Almanac winter forecast. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 People at work have been talking at length about the Farmer's Almanac winter forecast. Yup. If they keep going cold and snowy they will eventually get one right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 If they keep going cold and snowy they will eventually get one right I'm not so sure that rule applies to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 If they keep going cold and snowy they will eventually get one right Get past this winter and there are only two more to get through before the cycle comes around again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 am I correct in recalling that the KA winter forecast comes next week with the first day of fall? Yup--that's the way it usually works. He did very well with his summer outlook. With the ENSO regimen not forecasted to drastically change over the next few months, his upcoming winter outlook could also do well. Of course, it he goes warm and snowless, I'm tossing it. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 looks like we've bottomed out on sea ice around the NP and it's all up from here (on average) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 There is more blue than red. This is good. Only a week or 2 away from the infamous NH Snow Cover Index. I can taste another -AO winter. Not that that means much...ala Dec 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 20, 2013 Author Share Posted September 20, 2013 Pretty nice overrunning event on Friday the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 The good forecasters are calling for at least calling for somewhat of a cold and snowy winter, well anything will be cold and snowy compared to the last 2 winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 20, 2013 Author Share Posted September 20, 2013 The good forecasters are calling for at least calling for somewhat of a cold and snowy winter, well anything will be cold and snowy compared to the last 2 winters! Honestly, with the way the longwave pattern has been for nearly 6 months, there is no reason *yet* to doubt that near seasonal temps will continue well into winter. I don't think temps will be the tough part this year. It will be storm track. We can still reach near climo snow without a big event too. Maybe we have some luck with 2-4's / 3-5's this year. It's been a while since we've had a winter like that. Feast or famine is growing tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Pretty nice overrunning event on Friday the 13th. fri13th.JPG you all in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Honestly, with the way the longwave pattern has been for nearly 6 months, there is no reason *yet* to doubt that near seasonal temps will continue well into winter. I don't think temps will be the tough part this year. It will be storm track. We can still reach near climo snow without a big event too. Maybe we have some luck with 2-4's / 3-5's this year. It's been a while since we've had a winter like that. Feast or famine is growing tiresome. especially after 2 yrs. of famine following a winter of "almosts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 20, 2013 Author Share Posted September 20, 2013 you all in? I was never out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 especially after 2 yrs. of famine following a winter of "almosts" the last 21 years in DCA had three great winters...2009-10...2002-03...1995-96...hopefully you won't have to wait till 2016-17 for the next great winter... the last 21 years had... 40"+.....3 years... 30-40...0 20-30...0 15-20...1 10-15...8 5-10.....4 T-5......5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 the last 21 years in DCA had three great winters...2009-10...2002-03...1995-96...hopefully you won't have to wait till 2016-17 for the next great winter... the last 21 years had... 40"+.....3 years... 30-40...0 20-30...0 15-20...1 10-15...8 5-10.....4 T-5......5 Feast or famine, these are painful statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 some more quick math and DCA snow stats... decade average snowfall 1890-91 to 1899-00.....29.3 1900-01 to 1909-10.....22.1 1910-11 to 1919-20.....20.1 1920-21 to 1929-30.....15.9 1930-31 to 1939-40.....19.0 1940-41 to 1949-50.....15.5 1950-51 to 1959-60.....14.8 1960-61 to 1969-70.....23.7 1970-71 to 1979-80.....15.2 1980-81 to 1989-90.....16.6 1990-91 to 1999-00.....13.0 2000-01 to 2009-10.....16.8 2010-11 to 2012-13.......5.7 1890-91 to 2009-10.....18.5 1889-90 to 2012-13.....18.0 if my math is correct 18" is the long term average...the last three years are averaging less than 6"...there is only one way to go and that's up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 The huge issue for DCA proper is always the heat island effect. Out west we get three inches and it is rain the city. Can a "seasonal" winter overcome that? As usual timing is everything around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Anyone going to post the KA outlook? Does he still do the radio release on the eve of Autumn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Anyone going to post the KA outlook? Does he still do the radio release on the eve of Autumn? the earliest it would come out would be tomorrow, but I think he releases it publicly on Monday Tenman Johnson will pass it on, I'm sure, but whether he gets it to us earlier than Monday is anyone's guess (except for him, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Gotta get a thing worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Can't get it worked out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Talk about depressing statistics, thank the snow gods I moved back to PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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