Bob Chill Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 ORH, I meant to reply to your reply to my post about temps stealing our snow. I totally agree that .5-1 degree increase in temps in the last however many decades is probably statistically insignificant irt reducing our snow here in the MA. You brought up good points about the 50's having a similar type of pattern that simply sucked for DC snow. Since I wasn't around back then it's hard to be reflective using just data alone. I've lived in the MA with one 7 year break since 1972 so most of my reflective thoughts start in the early 70's. Maybe it is just a period of bad setups for snow and temps over the last 10 years (similar to other periods before I was born) but it really feels like we are losing it on the margins early and late and also the r/s line seems to be further N/W way more often than it used to be. I hope it is just part of natural variability but it doesn't feel like it down here. It feels like we aren't going back to "the way it was". We've done well with big storms the last decade but we're really doing bad with the small ones. In the past, our typical winters we're made up of small events (2-4 / 3-5) and we seem to have a knack for ending up on the wrong side of those lately. The Potomac River in DC is an indicator of sorts. It used to freeze quite often from shore to shore around the 14th street bridge. Now when it happens it's newsworthy. It's a bit of a testament to how hard it is to get prolonged cold this far south lately. You wouldn't think that .5-1 degree warmer on average would have that much of a profound affect but maybe in some ways it does because inside of the averages there are other persistent things going on that MA winter weather lovers have little to be happy about. Is it really permanent? I suppose scientifically it shouldn't be but it sure is starting to feel like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 ORH, I meant to reply to your reply to my post about temps stealing our snow. I totally agree that .5-1 degree increase in temps in the last however many decades is probably statistically insignificant irt reducing our snow here in the MA. You brought up good points about the 50's having a similar type of pattern that simply sucked for DC snow. Since I wasn't around back then it's hard to be reflective using just data alone. I've lived in the MA with one 7 year break since 1972 so most of my reflective thoughts start in the early 70's. Maybe it is just a period of bad setups for snow and temps over the last 10 years (similar to other periods before I was born) but it really feels like we are losing it on the margins early and late and also the r/s line seems to be further N/W way more often than it used to be. I hope it is just part of natural variability but it doesn't feel like it down here. It feels like we aren't going back to "the way it was". We've done well with big storms the last decade but we're really doing bad with the small ones. In the past, our typical winters we're made up of small events (2-4 / 3-5) and we seem to have a knack for ending up on the wrong side of those lately. The Potomac River in DC is an indicator of sorts. It used to freeze quite often from shore to shore around the 14th street bridge. Now when it happens it's newsworthy. It's a bit of a testament to how hard it is to get prolonged cold this far south lately. You wouldn't think that .5-1 degree warmer on average would have that much of a profound affect but maybe in some ways it does because inside of the averages there are other persistent things going on that MA winter weather lovers have little to be happy about. Is it really permanent? I suppose scientifically it shouldn't be but it sure is starting to feel like it. There's definitely some loss on the extreme margins...there has to be when you warm about 1F. It is actually most noticeable in November. I just wouldn't read too much into a 34F rainstorm possibly being a 31F snowstorm in 1965...unlikely in most setups. We're talking about the difference of a half degree celsius at 925-850mb...usually the differences we notice are because of crappy storm tracks or an airmass that simply would not have supported snow anyway even if we were a few tenths colder. A low tracking through the Ohio valley was a crappy setup in 1970 and it still is. It might just be a marginally worse setup now. There's surely some occasional exceptions...maybe a 33F slop job would have been 1-2" back in the day on certain specific storm setups. If there is another thing to take away as well, is that the 1960s (and some of the 1970s/early 80s) were a pretty special period for winter in context...very cold. It is unlikely that we could match that type of period again. For snowfall though, its clear that this is a bad type of regime for DC. The -PDO with a dearth of El Nino events (obviously '09-'10 not withstanding) is quite reminiscent of the late 1940s through mid 1950s. However, fairly potent El Ninos within the -PDO regime tend do produce very favorably for DC...we saw it in '09-'10, and back in '57-'58, '63-'64, and '65-'66. Get a few of those and a few neutrals following (rather than potent La Ninas) and you are likely to see much better results in that region. And yes, you aren't going to freeze the potomac as often now. Esp vs the 60s/70s when we had some historic cold outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 even something like Feb 1967 or Feb 1979 had wretched PACS...the latter was classic -PNA/Aleutian ridge....yet it was one of our coldest FEBS...perhaps coldest ever at DCA and had a southern stream.....of course the Atlantic was near perfect.... I guess my point is, we have so much more of a margin of error and so much greater chance of threading the needle and taking advantage of split flows and PNA spikes when we have a southern stream...and we only have one in NINO's and neutrals after ninos or general warm ENSO periods....so for me this winter is about getting cold...that is our best chance at getting near climo...that is the wildcard...during the core snow production window of winter, the storm track will be unfavorable...that is a virtual guarantee, but there are still a number of ways as we have discussed at getting snow events here....I think the big wildcard this winter is cold...that gives us more chances to thread the needle during a PNA spike or split flow.... or front thump or a cutoff or a clipper or even get the dummy end of a miller B....I think this winter is about capitalizing on what we know we are going to get rather than hoping for the underlying mean pattern to be different..and the best way to do that is to be cold I'd agree there. All hope is pretty much lost there if we don't even have cold to work with. We'll have to keep an eye on the PV as we go into latter Oct and Nov...just as long as it doesn't deepen with height and establish itself over AK, I think we'll have a shot at some good cold this winter. The PAC is reverting to the stronger -PDO look like we kind of thought it would anyway. That GOA warm water was a mirage...so shallow on the sfc. It got eroded very fast recently and it looks like we are building warmth again SW of the Aleutians, so the best hope is to root for the Aleutian ridge to go massively poleward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Great graphs ORH! I love visual data. I think the trend channel says a lot of things I don't like. We'll certainly break below it some years but for the time being it's probably best to accept the reality of not expecting the icebox anytime soon and they will be fewer and far between unless we can get a good volcano or something to blow up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 I'd agree there. All hope is pretty much lost there if we don't even have cold to work with. We'll have to keep an eye on the PV as we go into latter Oct and Nov...just as long as it doesn't deepen with height and establish itself over AK, I think we'll have a shot at some good cold this winter. The PAC is reverting to the stronger -PDO look like we kind of thought it would anyway. That GOA warm water was a mirage...so shallow on the sfc. It got eroded very fast recently and it looks like we are building warmth again SW of the Aleutians, so the best hope is to root for the Aleutian ridge to go massively poleward. The good news is that the +QBO should help promote this. Periods of both good and bad seem like a very reasonable expectation at this early stage, though probably more bad than good in the mid-atl given the regime. And how about that -PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 The good news is that the +QBO should help promote this. Periods of both good and bad seem like a very reasonable expectation at this early stage, though probably more bad than good in the mid-atl given the regime. And how about that -PDO Yep, as noted above, the warmth in the GOA was a shallow mirage on top of a very cold subsurface...simply promoted by the anomalous high pressure that sat there for weeks. It only took a few days of disturbing the water to revert back to the strong -PDO look. The warmth to the south of the Aleutians never really left either. It started to weaken some, but was always there. We'd want to see a cold pool form there to have a +PDO look. But its been like pulling teeth to get the PDO positive....even during the strong El Nino of 2009-2010, we only managed to get the PDO in mildly positive territory. Its been a very strong pullback each time by the PDO recently to its current base state of negative. I'm sure it played at least partial role in the demise of last year's weak Nino as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Hey Matt, was this the pattern you were describing earlier? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40158-the-early-speculation-on-winter-2013-14/?p=2420431 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Hey Matt, was this the pattern you were describing earlier? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40158-the-early-speculation-on-winter-2013-14/?p=2420431 is that legit? i don't see it anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 is that legit? i don't see it anywhere else. if it is i would view it as a huge + for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 is that legit? i don't see it anywhere else. I searched for it too and couldn't find it either so I can't say for certain something posted on the internet is not 100% accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 is that legit? i don't see it anywhere else. here's your answer http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40158-the-early-speculation-on-winter-2013-14/?p=2420670 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 here's your answer http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40158-the-early-speculation-on-winter-2013-14/?p=2420670 Ahh ok. Somehow their official will still paint snow over the NE urban corridor. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 This winter sucks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 This winter sucks again if HM hadn't said in the PHL forum that it means nothing for our winter, the fact that ice is now better than 2009 would have gotten me excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 if HM hadn't said in the PHL forum that it means nothing for our winter, the fact that ice is now better than 2009 would have gotten me excited If it means nothing then nothing is what we will get out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 This winter could play out like last,snowy in NYC while philly and dc get little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 This winter could play out like last,snowy in NYC while philly and dc get little. It COULD play out in a lot of ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 It COULD play out in a lot of ways. Yeah, and that's an odd way to phrase it. About a 1/3 of VA was above normal and another 1/3 was near normal and then there was DC. When you really slicing down mesoscale situations, micro climates and exact storm tracks. (EG- March 6 slight NW jog) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Easternsnowoman has cancelled winter for us in every subforum...sounds like we should shut this thread down now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 This winter could play out like last,snowy in NYC while philly and dc get little. Never post in this forum again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Never post in this forum again. Hey it's way too early to tell and I hope we all get snow and cold this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2 is really trying to build a solid weak El Nino http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2 is really trying to build a solid weak El Nino http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif yes, and it has DEC precip responding accordingly but JAN & FEB are not; in fact, they look horrendous even for a NINA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2. Wow. A dart board will work too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2. Wow. A dart board will work too. it's the only long range model to discuss we all have access to at this point plus, it changes daily so it smooths out the emotional valleys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 yes, and it has DEC precip responding accordingly but JAN & FEB are not; in fact, they look horrendous even for a NINA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html If we get an inch of liquid in January and it's all snow...we won't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 CFSv2 is really trying to build a solid weak El Nino http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif latest 3.4 nino weekly was -0.2....All four nino's are minus now...looks like a neutral winter coming up at least at the start... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 latest 3.4 nino weekly was -0.2....All four nino's are minus now...looks like a neutral winter coming up at least at the start... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Is there any lag between ENSO conditions and expected weather conditions across the US? 1 month, 2 months or should it be rather immediate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Is there any lag between ENSO conditions and expected weather conditions across the US? 1 month, 2 months or should it be rather immediate? It is typically a 2-3 month lag for CONUS weather and changes in ENSO region. It is why ENSO is essentially ignored after October/November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 shouldnt we have had el nino conditions then last winter since we had el nino in the fall that faded by winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.