2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[snowfan]

While reading the recent posts in this thread I began to think of the last big ice storm this region has had. I can't remember it, but if we do get some solid CAD in the area with a less than ideal track........

[WxUSAF]

yea, it's a bummer for sure in some respects. However, a west based nao can help and it's been elusive for a while. A well placed block can help us with a front end thump and keep the rain further west or even help shear things apart in the middle of the country and give us some long lost overruning. Kinda reaching here but I think you know what i'm getting at. 

 

One thing is certain, no blocking over gl and a fat aleutian ridge spells disaster. 

The WPO is tricky for us.  I found this helpful and fairly recent article about its winter impacts on the continent: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007JCLI2048.1

 

A strongly positive WPO (strong Aleutian low) "bring maritime air and warmth to the eastern seaboard, especially the mid-Atlantic region".

 

"In the opposite phase (weakened Aleutian low), NPO/WP is associated with lower temperatures to the east of the Rockies, consistent with the propensity for cold air outbreaks in this NPO/WP phase".

 

As you state, a strongly -WPO also screws us because it creates a deep western/Rockies trough and we get downstream ridging.  Reading into things, I think a weakly positive WPO probably works out best.  

[Bob Chill]

Good posts MN and Matt. Agree 100% about the aleutian ridge/goa being a pain in the you know what. 

 

2010-11 is a good example of how a favorable nao (west based) and help fight it in the temp department. Yea, storm track screams miller B but it's another take what we can get winter so wherever the help comes from, I'll take it.

 

The whole 10-11 had this type of look but Dec really shows a stark example of what can help when the pac is ghastly:

 

 

 

[aldie 22]

I would take less snow than last year here if what we got stuck around a little longer and actually layed on the concrete for a minute

[Bob Chill]

That setup could have worked with a southern stream....it had the makings of a split flow....if nina was weaker it may have been a decent winter down here....when you look at our big snow winters that were neutrall, 60-61, 78-79, 81-82...the pac was not great, but it was cold and we had a southern stream because they were in warm enso periods......we haven't had a southern stream in 4 years....it isn't just magically going to appear unfortunately...not without a nino...

 

Yep. It was a heartbreaking year after the late december debacle. We had no idea at the time how horrifying the next 2 would be though. Coming on the heels of 09-10 had us all out of sorts with reality. 

 

I don't think a big aleution ridge/goa low will be parked this year though. They will show their faces of course but this winter has some earmarks of natural variability at least. I'm sticking with my wag of having windows of opp each month Dec-Mar without having to suffer through 4-6 weeks of hell before "the pattern change". 

 

If we can get some amplification into a block then any shortwave exiting the rockies stands a chance at running under us. Even without the gulf the can snow pretty nicely. Just ask St. Mary's County, Orange County and RIC. LOL

[Huffwx]

So, sounds like most are moving towards--

 

Colder winter than last year, some blocking, crappy pacific. 

 

Ice storm threat is raised. Many lows riding up into IN/KY- reform east of ACY to NYC. Good winter for Chicago to STL back up torwards Omaha??

 

If we can get strong blocking and -EPO could get the coast to coast cold trough. That could take the polar jet and suppress it for a storm or three. (Ala Feb 06)

 

If I were taking a stab for general numbers-- temps near normal, snowfall below normal, higher number of snow to slop events. (little drips)

[WinterWxLuvr]

So, sounds like most are moving towards--

Colder winter than last year, some blocking, crappy pacific.

Ice storm threat is raised. Many lows riding up into IN/KY- reform east of ACY to NYC. Good winter for Chicago to STL back up torwards Omaha??

If we can get strong blocking and -EPO could get the coast to coast cold trough. That could take the polar jet and suppress it for a storm or three. (Ala Feb 06)

If I were taking a stab for general numbers-- temps near normal, snowfall below normal, higher number of snow to slop events. (little drips)

If lows are far enough east in Ky they can bring fun times to this part of Va, not quite as fun at lower elevations down near DC. Not sure about your part of Va.

[usedtobe]

Yep. It was a heartbreaking year after the late december debacle. We had no idea at the time how horrifying the next 2 would be though. Coming on the heels of 09-10 had us all out of sorts with reality. 

 

I don't think a big aleution ridge/goa low will be parked this year though. They will show their faces of course but this winter has some earmarks of natural variability at least. I'm sticking with my wag of having windows of opp each month Dec-Mar without having to suffer through 4-6 weeks of hell before "the pattern change". 

 

If we can get some amplification into a block then any shortwave exiting the rockies stands a chance at running under us. Even without the gulf the can snow pretty nicely. Just ask St. Mary's County, Orange County and RIC. LOL

 

We actually do better snow-wise if the height negative anomalies are located south of the Aleutian Islands which allows some riding just inland from the west coast.   The idea that a big vortex has to be located near the Aleutians to get us cold is not true.   For the east coast we do want warm air flooding into AK to get the east especially the northeast coast but at our latitude that's not a guarantee of anything without help in the Atlantic.  At least aht is my view. 

[Huffwx]

If lows are far enough east in Ky they can bring fun times to this part of Va, not quite as fun at lower elevations down near DC. Not sure about your part of Va.

 

 

Varies, we tend to at least remain ice due to literally being at the base of the Blue Ridge. So, we get less snow than DC but remain frozen when they are rain. 

[PhineasC]

I am looking forward to watching mega blocking show up just long enough to give CHO a foot and us flurries followed by temps in the 50s here.

[NCWX]

OK I am getting confused .... I am in Stanley VA at about 1300 feet near the west side of Big Meadows.  Sounds like I could be be in the screw zone. Or am I wrong?

[Avdave]

OK I am getting confused .... I am in Stanley VA at about 1300 feet near the west side of Big Meadows.  Sounds like I could be be in the screw zone. Or am I wrong?

If it is a cold damming situation, you would be fine in the valley, ie; frozen precip. If the winds are from the south, you will flip to rain but at the summit of the BR mtns like Big Meadows would be snowing.

If this happens this winter like the others are talking about, you would have quite a bit of ZR and IP in your area of the valley and then flip to light rain or drizzle

[NCWX]

I am hoping this area does not get slammed with an ice event like 1998.  

[Bob Chill]

I am hoping this area does not get slammed with an ice event like 1998.

I wouldn't worry much about drawing precise conclusions from the discussion this far out. We're just making points and discussing possibilities. You're in a much better spot compared to most of us for snow. High probability that u get more snow than 90% of this subforum.

I never worry much about ice. We rarely get high impact ice regardless of enso and teleconnectons.

[Bob Chill]

We actually do better snow-wise if the height negative anomalies are located south of the Aleutian Islands which allows some riding just inland from the west coast. The idea that a big vortex has to be located near the Aleutians to get us cold is not true. For the east coast we do want warm air flooding into AK to get the east especially the northeast coast but at our latitude that's not a guarantee of anything without help in the Atlantic. At least aht is my view.

Your thoughts are always appreciated. Nice to see you in the winter thread and I totally agree with you. Matt and I were mostly pointing out that the Aleutian ridge and goa low are terrible without A LOT if help from the Atlantic.

The exact opposite certainly has its caveats.

Any thoughts on blocking this winter?

[Avdave]

I wouldn't worry much about drawing precise conclusions from the discussion this far out. We're just making points and discussing possibilities. You're in a much better spot compared to most of us for snow. High probability that u get more snow than 90% of this subforum.

I never worry much about ice. We rarely get high impact ice regardless of enso and teleconnectons.

Kind of depends on the type of system for the valley, they could also get shadowed or clipped if a coastal is to far east as well. I average about 23" here, I would say Stanley, VA averages about 26"

[Ian]

Ice storms around here are lol

Yeah that one time 20 years ago...

Meh

[Bob Chill]

Kind of depends on the type of system for the valley, they could also get shadowed or clipped if a coastal is to far east as well. I average about 23" here, I would say Stanley, VA averages about 26"

True. West of the br is rarely the jackpot with coastals. Luckily we won't have any of those to worry about this year.

You my friend are in a good spot this year too.

[Avdave]

True. West of the br is rarely the jackpot with coastals. Luckily we won't have any of those to worry about this year.

You my friend are in a good spot this year too.

We will see. I have expectations low this year. As long as some snow falls and stays around for a few days throughout winter, I should be ok, with saying that Im all in Bob. Oh there will be coastals but it will be Philly and north to Boston.

[PhineasC]

Ice storms around here are lol

Yeah that one time 20 years ago...

Meh

Hey, temps at 31.5 degrees during the day in February with 1 inch of rain falling in 3 hours is a classic setup for ice!

[WinterWxLuvr]

True. West of the br is rarely the jackpot with coastals. Luckily we won't have any of those to worry about this year.

You my friend are in a good spot this year too.

The coastals can be cruel back here for sure (March 09), but if they are close enough at least we don't have to worry about precip type. We do well with storms like last Dec 26, but you're right, coastals are a nerve racking experience for those of us in the west.

[mitchnick]

talking about an upcoming winter around here is always exciting; it's the conclusion that always sux

[WinterWxLuvr]

talking about an upcoming winter around here is always exciting; it's the conclusion that always sux

Last year was good for some, awful for others.

[mitchnick]

Last year was good for some, awful for others.

it was a "rough" year for snow lovers living at around 175' asl, believe me

at least Eastern is still online to go through those old threads

I had forgotten how questionable 2/10/10 bliz was (almost to the last minute) until I went through the thread leading up to it the other day

[Huffwx]

it was a "rough" year for snow lovers living at around 175' asl, believe me

at least Eastern is still online to go through those old threads

I had forgotten how questionable 2/10/10 bliz was (almost to the last minute) until I went through the thread leading up to it the other day

 

Our 3-5 inches down here failed. 

[Ian]

it was a "rough" year for snow lovers living at around 175' asl, believe me

at least Eastern is still online to go through those old threads

I had forgotten how questionable 2/10/10 bliz was (almost to the last minute) until I went through the thread leading up to it the other day

that type of storm almost never works out around here but it was modeled fairly well considering

[ORH_wxman]

that type of storm almost never works out around here but it was modeled fairly well considering

 

And rarely screws SNE...yet that Miller B ended up giving 10-20" of snow to DCA/BWI and a bust up here. Was a bizarre storm in a pretty incredible winter.

[easternsnowman]

the good forecasters are pretty much saying a cold snowy winter NYC north south of there may be cold also as zwsts was saying, but snow we have to wait and see.

[Bob Chill]

the good forecasters are pretty much saying a cold snowy winter NYC north south of there may be cold also as zwsts was saying, but snow we have to wait and see.

Yep, pretty easy to assume the NE stands the best shot because of the likely storm track to our west. Miller B's will be the big snow producers for the cities along the coast and we probably get a good hit from a miller be 1 out of every 5 (or oven lower odds).

I think it's fair enough to say that we can be slightly optimistic compared to previous years. I don't think the cold will get locked over in eurasia like the last couple. And I believe we will get more help from the NAO than last year. Heck, a favorable NAO was basically non-existent last year.

Our chances for anything decent will rely on the more volatile and harder to predict teleconnections in the lr. The alignment of the PNA and NAO are tough even at d10 let along months out. It's a lot of wait and see.

I personally doubt any widespread 6"+ events our I95 corridor. I hope I'm wrong of course.

[ORH_wxman]

An Aleutian ridge is more hostile to the storm track than to cold unless you have a southern stream. I believe we had an Aleutian ridge for some of the big -PDO winters of the 60s. But we had a southern stream for all of them. Aleutian ridge can be a cold pattern but the cold anomaly is to our north so the storm track sucks as usual.

 

 

Something like '64-'65 is the type of winter where DC can do ok in a very Nina/Aleutian Ridge type setup. It was aided by a solid -NAO though. Without that, the winter probably would have been horrible. The Aleutian ridge got poleward enough during the month of January 1965 to dump a ton of cold into N.A.

 

I would add that the winter wasn't that great, but tolerable considering it was a La Nina and a very La Nina PAC.