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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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The good forecasters are calling for at least calling for somewhat of a cold and snowy winter, well anything will be cold and snowy compared to the last 2 winters!

 

Honestly, with the way the longwave pattern has been for nearly 6 months, there is no reason *yet* to doubt that near seasonal temps will continue well into winter. I don't think temps will be the tough part this year. It will be storm track. We can still reach near climo snow without a big event too. Maybe we have some luck with 2-4's / 3-5's this year. It's been a while since we've had a winter like that. Feast or famine is growing tiresome. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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Honestly, with the way the longwave pattern has been for nearly 6 months, there is no reason *yet* to doubt that near seasonal temps will continue well into winter. I don't think temps will be the tough part this year. It will be storm track. We can still reach near climo snow without a big event too. Maybe we have some luck with 2-4's / 3-5's this year. It's been a while since we've had a winter like that. Feast or famine is growing tiresome. 

especially after 2 yrs. of famine following a winter of "almosts"

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uncle W

uncle W

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especially after 2 yrs. of famine following a winter of "almosts"

the last 21 years in DCA had three great winters...2009-10...2002-03...1995-96...hopefully you won't have to wait till 2016-17 for the next great winter...

the last 21 years had...

40"+.....3 years...

30-40...0

20-30...0

15-20...1

10-15...8

5-10.....4

T-5......5

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uncle W

uncle W

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some more quick math and DCA snow stats...

decade average snowfall

 

1890-91 to 1899-00.....29.3

1900-01 to 1909-10.....22.1

1910-11 to 1919-20.....20.1

1920-21 to 1929-30.....15.9

1930-31 to 1939-40.....19.0

1940-41 to 1949-50.....15.5

1950-51 to 1959-60.....14.8

1960-61 to 1969-70.....23.7

1970-71 to 1979-80.....15.2

1980-81 to 1989-90.....16.6

1990-91 to 1999-00.....13.0

2000-01 to 2009-10.....16.8

 

2010-11 to 2012-13.......5.7

 

1890-91 to 2009-10.....18.5

 

1889-90 to 2012-13.....18.0

if my math is correct 18" is the long term average...the last three years are averaging less than 6"...there is only one way to go and that's up...

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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Anyone going to post the KA outlook? Does he still do the radio release on the eve of Autumn?

the earliest it would come out would be tomorrow, but I think he releases it publicly on Monday

Tenman Johnson will pass it on, I'm sure, but whether he gets it to us earlier than Monday is anyone's guess (except for him, of course)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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attachicon.gif2013266.png

 

Snow cover looks good, but it looked good last year too....Winter Cancel.  2016 - 2017 or Bust.

 

 
The correlation between siberian snowcover and subsequent higher chances of a -AO does seem to have merit though. We had a huge -AO in December last year. It was rendered useless by a dominant -pna in Dec as well and other disturbing features in the npac / goa. There was just no delivery system to get the cold air in the east coast until much later in the winter. 
 
This map sums up our agony pretty well. What a total waste of HL blocking cooperation.
 
 
One thing about Dr. Cohen's study is that it isn't the anomoly that seems to have the effect. It's the rate of increase throughout the month. Starting off Oct with a big + snowcover anom is actually a bad thing. We want a ramp up throughout the month. Especially during the second half. Not starting off solid and finishing meh. 
 
Call it a nina hangover or bad luck or whatever but the Dec pattern last year really sucked the big one in the pac and it was hard as heck to break down and move on. It did though and winter delivered in the temp department. We could have easily hit 75% of climo last year but again, just an incessant string of bad luck plagued us from door to door. 
 
IMO- odds against a similar setup in the pac during Dec are pretty low. We don't have enso on our side but it also doesn't appear to be a big negative this year either. Things are different this year and I personally expect different results During Dec "if" we get blocking again. 
 
I believe the source region for cold will be much more favorable. The pesky siberian HP that has kept russia and china in the deep freeze may not develop this year. Arctic patterns did a 180 this summer compared to the previous 4. We may actually have true arctic air to tap (modified of course) at times this winter and not just cold continental stuff that apparently is always 1 degree too warm for snow. lol
 
 
I've been saving various maps but I'm not ready to make a detailed post but my thoughts above aren't without research. I'm not implying a solid winter though. Just stating that none of us should expect the same outcome if we get an early winter -ao in place. If anything we should probably hedge on the opposite happening. I've posted a couple times about me thinking we go cold for at least half of Dec and these are some of the reasons why I'm thinking that. 
 
If the AO rages positive in late Nov then all bets are off and we're screwed early on. 
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Matt, we're totally on the same page. Big juicy miller a's are off the table unless we accidentally get lucky with spit flow at some point. yea, it can happen but....expecting it or calling for it is not the way to go at all. 

 

Front end miller B / dryslot can deliver or even a front end lake cutter end as rain type of deal. All we needed last year was better cold in place in front. I think at the very least we have a better chance at having the cold compared to what happened during the first half of winter last year. 

 

If the stars align and everything goes right I will happily eat my early season words and call BUST as I'm shoveling. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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The correlation between siberian snowcover and subsequent higher chances of a -AO does seem to have merit though. We had a huge -AO in December last year. It was rendered useless by a dominant -pna in Dec as well and other disturbing features in the npac / goa. There was just no delivery system to get the cold air in the east coast until much later in the winter. 
 
This map sums up our agony pretty well. What a total waste of HL blocking cooperation.
 
 
One thing about Dr. Cohen's study is that it isn't the anomoly that seems to have the effect. It's the rate of increase throughout the month. Starting off Oct with a big + snowcover anom is actually a bad thing. We want a ramp up throughout the month. Especially during the second half. Not starting off solid and finishing meh. 
 
Call it a nina hangover or bad luck or whatever but the Dec pattern last year really sucked the big one in the pac and it was hard as heck to break down and move on. It did though and winter delivered in the temp department. We could have easily hit 75% of climo last year but again, just an incessant string of bad luck plagued us from door to door. 
 
IMO- odds against a similar setup in the pac during Dec are pretty low. We don't have enso on our side but it also doesn't appear to be a big negative this year either. Things are different this year and I personally expect different results During Dec "if" we get blocking again. 
 
I believe the source region for cold will be much more favorable. The pesky siberian HP that has kept russia and china in the deep freeze may not develop this year. Arctic patterns did a 180 this summer compared to the previous 4. We may actually have true arctic air to tap (modified of course) at times this winter and not just cold continental stuff that apparently is always 1 degree too warm for snow. lol
 
 
I've been saving various maps but I'm not ready to make a detailed post but my thoughts above aren't without research. I'm not implying a solid winter though. Just stating that none of us should expect the same outcome if we get an early winter -ao in place. If anything we should probably hedge on the opposite happening. I've posted a couple times about me thinking we go cold for at least half of Dec and these are some of the reasons why I'm thinking that. 
 
If the AO rages positive in late Nov then all bets are off and we're screwed early on. 

 

regardless of what Cohen says in his study, I can only believe that above normal NH snow cover helps

otoh, in the end, as you say, delivery, and as Matt points out, track, seals the deal for us this far south of the Pole

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Huffwx

Huffwx

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Appreciate your thoughts and I and I agree. It has been a huge deal because for me it was like the "official" kick off of winter tracking. He always batted lead off and everyone else followed with outlooks. :(

 

 

 

 

 

It's too bad. This has been a tradition. I don't know all the reasons, but this will be the 1st year since 2001-02 we don't have his outlook. I remember one year calling a non-weather friend from a plane as I was about to take off on a long flight, and had them go to the board and read me the outlook. They had no idea what any of it meant. I was just like "go here and look for a thread from weather53 that says something about KA and read it to me". I don't know Keith, but the internet is always going to be full of detractors. I don't recall there being issues last winter or this summer any different than other years. Most people appreciated the outlook and assessed it fairly. So not sure what changed.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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regardless of what Cohen says in his study, I can only believe that above normal NH snow cover helps

otoh, in the end, as you say, delivery, and as Matt points out, track, seals the deal for us this far south of the Pole

 

It only helps if we can get a siberian express setup. Which used to happen a lot in the 80's and to a lesser extent in the 90's. Times have changed. Have no idea why. My speculation is the atlantic side of the ice cap being smaller than ever along with warmer sst in the n atl from the amo. Seems to be some connection. 

 

What we need is the pv to be on our dang side of the globe early on. That thing has been locked and loaded over russia far to often lately. 

 

This is dec h5 anoms from 06-12

 

 

That predominant HP on the alt side of n russia has been a big thorn in our side lately. There are exceptions to it like 09-10 but still, that feature among a few other things are the main reasons why europe/russia/china have been getting hit hard with cold while we struggle to freeze the tidal basin. 

 

 

The 2012 dec h5 anom map I posted this morning shows it really clearly. It's worth paying attention to this Dec. I'm kinda thinking that the ice bounce we saw this year has some sort of affect in not allowing it to occur this year. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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more of the same...enso regions look abysmally useless....and the northern pac supports a fat Aleutian ridge....which supports a storm track to our west.....

 

 

 

yea, it's a bummer for sure in some respects. However, a west based nao can help and it's been elusive for a while. A well placed block can help us with a front end thump and keep the rain further west or even help shear things apart in the middle of the country and give us some long lost overruning. Kinda reaching here but I think you know what i'm getting at. 

 

One thing is certain, no blocking over gl and a fat aleutian ridge spells disaster. 

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