2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[mitchnick]

I almost threw up

 

What happens when the GOA gets cold?  What will be the new 40N  justification for why we  will have a good winter here?

the same one as every year.....our bad luck has got to run out at some point

 

anyway, you weren't supposed to be looking at the N PAC, only enso  <insert blind as a bat emoticon here>  

[mattie g]

the same one as every year.....our bad luck has got to run out at some point

Our default is bad luck. 2016-2017 will break the bad luck streak.

[ORH_wxman]

The problem for DC is that we are in the type of regime that was similar to like the 1948-1957 period...lots of Ninas or neturals with no potent Ninos in there during the initial 10 years of a shift to -PDO regime (much like we have shifted recently in the present).

From what I recall, that period was pretty lousy for DC too. When you get a potent El Nino in the -PDO regime, it will be great...much like '09-'10 was (also '57-'58, '65-'66)...if you can built some neutral winters after a potent Nino in a decadal -PDO regime, then that would probably give some better results for non-Nino years like the early 60s.

[weathafella]

I almost threw up

What happens when the GOA gets cold? What will be the new 40N justification for why we will have a good winter here?

the same one as every year.....our bad luck has got to run out at some point

anyway, you weren't supposed to be looking at the N PAC, only enso

If the GOA gets cold before 10/1, we're all fukked. My entire premise is experimental with the GOA in September. It has worked but admittedly the sample size is weak.

[Deck Pic]

The problem for DC is that we are in the type of regime that was similar to like the 1948-1957 period...lots of Ninas or neturals with no potent Ninos in there during the initial 10 years of a shift to -PDO regime (much like we have shifted recently in the present).

From what I recall, that period was pretty lousy for DC too. When you get a potent El Nino in the -PDO regime, it will be great...much like '09-'10 was (also '57-'58, '65-'66)...if you can built some neutral winters after a potent Nino in a decadal -PDO regime, then that would probably give some better results for non-Nino years like the early 60s.

 

you pretty much stated it perfectly

[mitchnick]

if you believe the Hurricane correlation to winter, 96/97 seems to be off the table in light of the action up through 9/6/96

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/index.php

[mitchnick]

The problem for DC is that we are in the type of regime that was similar to like the 1948-1957 period...lots of Ninas or neturals with no potent Ninos in there during the initial 10 years of a shift to -PDO regime (much like we have shifted recently in the present).

From what I recall, that period was pretty lousy for DC too. When you get a potent El Nino in the -PDO regime, it will be great...much like '09-'10 was (also '57-'58, '65-'66)...if you can built some neutral winters after a potent Nino in a decadal -PDO regime, then that would probably give some better results for non-Nino years like the early 60s.

 if you're right and history repeats, this year will be close to average at BWI

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwisnow.txt

[Rjay]

I remain optomistic

I literally spit my drink out...awesome

[mitchnick]

I literally spit my drink out...awesome

what the he!! are we supposed to do in the MA? be realistic?????

I've lived long enough to know that's no fun

[Bob Chill]

I'm with u Mitch. I fully expect double what I got last year. It's going to be epic.

[mitchnick]

I'm with u Mitch. I fully expect double what I got last year. It's going to be epic.

or at least feel it     lol

[Deck Pic]

I'm with u Mitch. I fully expect double what I got last year. It's going to be epic.

What are we supposed to do without a southern stream? I am trying to figure out a way we can have a big winter and I can't. It requires us to produce during the core of winter. One way is to get a split flow and faux southern stream a la jan 2000. But that was a really anomalous situation. We saw that pattern last winter. It doesn't have to produce a snowstorm that back in and dumps 2 feet on RDU.

Do we have any other reasonable options? Some sick, otherworldly block and we thread some crazy sh-it?

I'll be happy with 10-12" IMBY.

[mitchnick]

What are we supposed to do without a southern stream? I am trying to figure out a way we can have a big winter and I can't. It requires us to produce during the core of winter. One way is to get a split flow and faux southern stream a la jan 2000. But that was a really anomalous situation. We saw that pattern last winter. It doesn't have to produce a snowstorm that back in and dumps 2 feet on RDU.

Do we have any other reasonable options? Some sick, otherworldly block and we thread some crazy sh-it?

I'll be happy with 10-12" IMBY.

as long as you're with the Capital Weather Gang, you'll never allow yourself to dream weenie dreams again

anonymity has its perks!!!

[uncle W]

July/Aug mei came in at -.614...That's weak la nina territory...oni came in at -0.4...next month could warm a notch or stay steady...weekly oni was -0.1...Some mei analogs of hope...

1898-99......54" in DCA

1903-04......20" in DCA

1908-09......36" in DCA

1912-13......9" in DCA

1921-22.....42.5" in DCA

1945-46......24.5" in DCA

1949-50......3" DCA...

1962-63......21.4" in DCA

1974-75.....12.8" in DCA...

six snowy winters 20" or more...

one in the teens...

two under 10"...

enso near same state in Jan...

1898-99

1921-22

1962-63...

la nina develops...

1903-04

1908-09

1949-50

1974-75

if enso warms to near 0.0...

1912-13

1945-46

I'm betting the mei will be close to what it is now in January making the top three analogs pretty good for DCA...

[Bob Chill]

What are we supposed to do without a southern stream? I am trying to figure out a way we can have a big winter and I can't. It requires us to produce during the core of winter. One way is to get a split flow and faux southern stream a la jan 2000. But that was a really anomalous situation. We saw that pattern last winter. It doesn't have to produce a snowstorm that back in and dumps 2 feet on RDU.

Do we have any other reasonable options? Some sick, otherworldly block and we thread some crazy sh-it?

I'll be happy with 10-12" IMBY.

I was just poking fun. 12" is 200% of last year in my yard. And that's what I honestly expect. And it will take 4+ events to get there.

A good block with a miller b'ish vort diving down could drop 4-6" area wide. A post frontal trailing wave could get us 3-5.

IMHO- a 6-10 event is totally off the table without a lucky strike with a perfect +pna -nao. No stj doesn't mean the gulf is closed. But this kind of event is an obvious fluke. It would surprise me if it happened or didn't happen. I won't make any calls like that until 8 hours after it stops snowing. LOL

[Bob Chill]

Uncle, the problem with the top 3 analogs is that yes, we might hit those #'s precip wise but outside of the far nw burbs it will be more rain than those years. Average temp air masses nowadays just aren't the same anymore.

I don't know what the temp profiles were for the storms during those years but if any happened with temps AOA 30* then it would be rain today.

EDIT: Just want to add that every cell in my body hopes you're right. If you are I'll buy you a truck load of your favorite beer. If you don't drink I'll pay for a world class high end call girl.

[mitchnick]

Uncle, the problem with the top 3 analogs is that yes, we might hit those #'s precip wise but outside of the far nw burbs it will be more rain than those years. Average temp air masses nowadays just aren't the same anymore.

I don't know what the temp profiles were for the storms during those years but if any happened with temps AOA 30* then it would be rain today.

EDIT: Just want to add that every cell in my body hopes you're right. If you are I'll buy you a truck load of your favorite beer. If you don't drink I'll pay for a world class high end call girl.

at least you have all the vices covered Bob   

[ORH_wxman]

Uncle, the problem with the top 3 analogs is that yes, we might hit those #'s precip wise but outside of the far nw burbs it will be more rain than those years. Average temp air masses nowadays just aren't the same anymore.

I don't know what the temp profiles were for the storms during those years but if any happened with temps AOA 30* then it would be rain today.

EDIT: Just want to add that every cell in my body hopes you're right. If you are I'll buy you a truck load of your favorite beer. If you don't drink I'll pay for a world class high end call girl.

 

Winter temps have warmed like half a degree to perhaps as much as a degree F in your neck of the woods since those days...its not a matter of a 30-31F snowstorm becoming a rainstorm now...that's way too much difference than has actually occurred. Cruddy storm tracks generally cause 34F rainstorms...not global warming between 1966 and 2013. The biggest difference is its harder to get absolutely brutally cold winters now and extreme arctic outbreaks. There's surely some effect on snow too, but 99% of it is storm tracks and the type of regime you are in.

 

Its been a pretty unfavorable regime recently ala late 40s to mid/late 1950s which was also pretty sucky in DC. Plenty of warm clunkers in there too. You get a few neutrals following a Nino, and you'll probably see the difference...and some +PDO winters. The correlation seems to be very high. Its hard to ignore the stats that zwyts put out on them...the sample isn't monstrous, but it isn't small either. It is large enough to be significant.

 

 

[uncle W]

Uncle, the problem with the top 3 analogs is that yes, we might hit those #'s precip wise but outside of the far nw burbs it will be more rain than those years. Average temp air masses nowadays just aren't the same anymore.

I don't know what the temp profiles were for the storms during those years but if any happened with temps AOA 30* then it would be rain today.

EDIT: Just want to add that every cell in my body hopes you're right. If you are I'll buy you a truck load of your favorite beer. If you don't drink I'll pay for a world class high end call girl.

if it happens it's because I guessed right...it could easily be 2001-02 again...It's only speculation at this point...I just wanted to show some great analogs with weak negative enso's...

[mappy]

I found a snowsuit on Amazon that was on sale, bought it for my daughter. Probably jinxed my entire winter now.

[H2O]

I found a snowsuit on Amazon that was on sale, bought it for my daughter. Probably jinxed my entire winter now.

 

 

I've been jinxing DC since 2002 minus one year

[mattie g]

I found a snowsuit on Amazon that was on sale, bought it for my daughter. Probably jinxed my entire winter now.

 

I expect reports of days and days of snow from Mt. Parkton.

[Eskimo Joe]

I found a snowsuit on Amazon that was on sale, bought it for my daughter. Probably jinxed my entire winter now.

Meh, I purchased an ice scraper so it's partially my fault too.

[mappy]

I expect reports of days and days of snow from Mt. Parkton.

 

I figure it could double as a flotation device should we only get days and days of rain instead

[H2O]

Meh, I purchased an ice scraper so it's partially my fault too.

 

I still have a big bag of salt from 2 years ago that I bought in the fall.  Can't even use it for margaritas

[Avdave]

I've been jinxing DC since 2002 minus one year

Ahh Dec 5 2009. what an awesome day out here. Oh wait you had rain, thats right 

 

[mitchnick]

I heard that the Steelers' loss at home yesterday was the first home opener loss for them since 2002, so we've got that going for us.  

 

at least Raven's Rule will appreciate this post    

[mattie g]

I still have a big bag of salt from 2 years ago that I bought in the fall.  Can't even use it for margaritas

 

Old Man Winter dropped a big bag of s**t on us two years ago, and it's still hanging around the DC area, stinking up the place.

[Bob Chill]

I still have a big bag of salt from 2 years ago that I bought in the fall. Can't even use it for margaritas

Just fertilize your lawn with it and sell your mower. win-win

[Chinook]

Winter Disco