Bob Chill Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 I just started thinking a little about the business of tracking potential snow. While it's pretty much a fruitless endeavor around here, I'm realizing it's kind of fun, especially during a slow day at work. I've been mostly off the board this summer but my post count will look like a triple 7 payout on a Vegas slot when the first threat appears @ d10 on the euro control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I've been mostly off the board this summer but my post count will look like a triple 7 payout on a Vegas slot when the first threat appears @ d10 on the euro control run. You need control top spandex to temper your excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 so what does a lawsuit proceeding against Lady Gaga mean to our weather? Just snow, gonna be okay, da da doo-doo-mmm, just snow... Great, now that song is stuck in my head. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Great, now that song is stuck in my head. Thanks It'll come back to haunt me. Something will show up on a model and I'll be humming "just snow....." for days leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 It'll come back to haunt me. Something will show up on a model and I'll be humming "just snow....." for days leading up to it. someone will meme it, I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 It'll come back to haunt me. Something will show up on a model and I'll be humming "just snow....." for days leading up to it. She has seen our winter outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Should I consider myself lucky that I wouldn't be able to pick out a Lady Gaga song from a lineup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Should I consider myself lucky that I wouldn't be able to pick out a Lady Gaga song from a lineup? Knew you were more of a Beiber fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Knew you were more of a Beiber fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 in case you didn't see it, the Philly forum has a decent discussion on pending winter with mets involved http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41091-winter-2013-2014/ of course, Philly posters are Matt's favorite, besides ours of course, so he already saw it I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 MY wife went to an estate sale with a friend and they boght a snow blower....that's probably a potent portend about the next couple of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 MY wife went to an estate sale with a friend and they boght a snow blower....that's probably a potent portend about the next couple of winters. About how great its going to be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 DC was so close last year. The precip was there but temps at 33 all day were the killer. Like always I'm not worried about the precip, Im worried that the cold will be there. If this summer is any indication of temps. Maybe it will be OK this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 MY wife went to an estate sale with a friend and they boght a snow blower....that's probably a potent portend about the next couple of winters. she bought it on her own w/o asking you??? come on hey everybody, Wes is going BIG this year, pass it on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I think there will be a very cold month surrounded by not too far from average. December like 0 to -1 and Feb. like 0 to +2. January I think will be very cold, maybe December. Very cold including -5 or colder. Does not look snowy, 10-15" for DC area. Wierd with the analog years and lots came in but none dominated. They include 1947,51,63,68,83,89,2000,01,03,04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Updated Euro seasonal forecasts shows warm neutral conditions/bordering on weak nino (more west-based). Of course last year, the Euro did not lock in on the correct winter ENSO state until October. The next month should be "telling", as they say. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Updated Euro seasonal forecasts shows warm neutral conditions/bordering on weak nino (more west-based). Of course last year, the Euro did not lock in on the correct winter ENSO state until October. The next month should be "telling", as they say. MDstorm Eh. I only care about what the CFSv2 has to say. Where's mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Eh. I only care about what the CFSv2 has to say. Where's mitch? enjoying a true "fall" cold frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 16, 2013 Author Share Posted September 16, 2013 This is the worst winter to try and make sense of at longs leads since I joined eastern in 06. Odds are stacked against a favorable stj. Everything else is on the table. That probably won't anytime soon either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 This is the worst winter to try and make sense of at longs leads since I joined eastern in 06. Odds are stacked against a favorable stj. Everything else is on the table. That probably won't anytime soon either. since it, practically speaking, can't get any worse than the last 2 years, it can only be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 since it, practically speaking, can't get any worse than the last 2 years, it can only be better i was looking at DC snowfall and the last two years have been brutal....in the last 125 years of record DC has....... 50" or more.....2.......2%... 40"-49.9"........7.......6%... 30"-39.9"......13.....10%... 20"-29.9"......25.....20%... 10"-19.9"......43.....34%... T-9.9"...........35.....28%... T-19.9".........78.....62%... 20"+.............47.....38% the chances aren't good but it doesn't mean this year will be less than 20" for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 This is the worst winter to try and make sense of at longs leads since I joined eastern in 06. Odds are stacked against a favorable stj. Everything else is on the table. That probably won't anytime soon either. On the good side they did say it would be an active Hurricane season this year... So the exact opposite of what all the signals are telling us is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 am I correct in recalling that the KA winter forecast comes next week with the first day of fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 People at work have been talking at length about the Farmer's Almanac winter forecast. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 People at work have been talking at length about the Farmer's Almanac winter forecast. Yup. If they keep going cold and snowy they will eventually get one right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 If they keep going cold and snowy they will eventually get one right I'm not so sure that rule applies to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 If they keep going cold and snowy they will eventually get one right Get past this winter and there are only two more to get through before the cycle comes around again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 am I correct in recalling that the KA winter forecast comes next week with the first day of fall? Yup--that's the way it usually works. He did very well with his summer outlook. With the ENSO regimen not forecasted to drastically change over the next few months, his upcoming winter outlook could also do well. Of course, it he goes warm and snowless, I'm tossing it. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 looks like we've bottomed out on sea ice around the NP and it's all up from here (on average) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 There is more blue than red. This is good. Only a week or 2 away from the infamous NH Snow Cover Index. I can taste another -AO winter. Not that that means much...ala Dec 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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