ORH_wxman Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 What was the DC total in 2004-05? DCA: 12.5" IAD: 17.3" They got screwed that winter compared to what happened further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 What was the DC total in 2004-05? DCA: 12.5" IAD: 17.3" They got screwed that winter compared to what happened further north. That stinks! I thought they did better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 DCA: 12.5" IAD: 17.3" They got screwed that every effin' winter (save 09/10) compared to what happened further north and sometimes south. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Would be nice if some snow decided to stick to the streets this year. Nickled and dimed our way to almost 20" last year which is good but it was mostly conversational snow that painted a pretty picture for a minute. I recognize this was better than many so I'm not complaining but I'm thinking a bigger dump at least once this year would be preferable over the snizzle events but eh....I will appreciate all we get wow, I didn't realize you got that much....congrats; I must have been too busy whining instead of reading other posts! must have been more pennies than nickels and dimes though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 That stinks! I thought they did better... I know you did. You spent the entire winter telling us how great our winter was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 All DCA needs is 2hrs of good rates to break the last 2 yeas combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 This guy says cold and snowy. I'll take his forecast: http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2013-2014-winter-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Would be nice if some snow decided to stick to the streets this year. Nickled and dimed our way to almost 20" last year which is good but it was mostly conversational snow that painted a pretty picture for a minute. I recognize this was better than many so I'm not complaining but I'm thinking a bigger dump at least once this year would be preferable over the snizzle events but eh....I will appreciate all we get Ill be happy with even a repeat of last year. Snow on Christmas eve and day was a huge bonus. Sure one big one throw in would be nice, but knowing how it can go either way this year. Ill take whatever we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Have we ever had 4 years of a row of either La Nina or cold neutrals? Aren't we in uncharted waters here a bit when it comes to analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Have we ever had 4 years of a row of either La Nina or cold neutrals? Aren't we in uncharted waters here a bit when it comes to analogs? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml technically, last year wasn't a NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 oni goes back to 1950...1999-2002 were four straight years with a - for DJF... 1999 -1.5 2000 -1.7 2001 -0.7 2002 -0.2 mei goes back to 1870...using the Dec/Jan index 1890-1896 had seven straight years with a negative value...1872-76 had five...1907-11 had five...1943-46, 1960-63, 1999-02 had four...using the JMA that goes back to 1870...1870-1876 had seven straight negatives...1907-11 had five...1943-47 had five...1960-63 had four...1999-02 had four... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I know you did. You spent the entire winter telling us how great our winter was. Ahhh.....I was young and innocent then...... Somehow in my head I equate the December 1960 storm with all DC winters after watching Del Shofner end up in A snow bank after catching a td pass from YA Tittle in heavy snow. Seriously. Well one thing you can see is that DC is now due after paying dearly for 4 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml technically, last year wasn't a NINA Hence my reference to "cold neutrals" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 oni goes back to 1950...1999-2002 were four straight years with a - for DJF... 1999 -1.5 2000 -1.7 2001 -0.7 2002 -0.2 mei goes back to 1870...using the Dec/Jan index 1890-1896 had seven straight years with a negative value...1872-76 had five...1907-11 had five...1943-46, 1960-63, 1999-02 had four...using the JMA that goes back to 1870...1870-1876 had seven straight negatives...1907-11 had five...1943-47 had five...1960-63 had four...1999-02 had four... Yeah, 98-01 or 99-02 is probably fairly similar in ENSO state at least. 01-02 is not an analog I think most people will be pleased with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Hence my reference to "cold neutrals" As some like to call it, "La Nada" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Hence my reference to "cold neutrals" wew, I am going blind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 i cant wait for February. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd6.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 i cant wait for February. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd6.gif Unfortunately, the temp anomolies map will probably look just like this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 i cant wait for February. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd6.gif I can't wait until next week when that map looks completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I can't wait until next week when that map looks completely different Or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 This guy says cold and snowy. I'll take his forecast: http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2013-2014-winter-outlook/ The comment section is loltastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 I've been busy and haven't posted much lately. I have been looking at things from time to time. This still is one of the worst years to make an early guess in quite some time. Going slightly warmer and less snowy than climo is the only wag I think i could make and feel ok about. Even that isn't saying much. I've always been a believer of dominant patterns and oscillations evening themselves out over time (stating the obvious). Patterns oscillations are tricky though. There are just too many out there and complex interactions between them give the best forecasters and weather computers fits let alone armchair weenies trying to make sense of it. This summer was a big change in the NH compared to many recent ones. Especially the arctic. I personally think this is a signal of some sort that will carry over through the end of the year and into the next. I read the ice thread from time to time and iirc some are calling this year a "bump year". Not a reversal or anything but there was a massive shift in weather patterns this summer in the arctic basin compared to the last.....17?? The 17 year thing is my own observation based on a couple simple charts. JJA this summer has been the first +NAO dominant summer since 1996. This summer is also the biggest bump in arctic sea ice since 1996. There some important reasons not to use 1996 as a perfect analog. 96-97 was enso neutral but on the heels of a weak/mod nina. Not a good comparison to the territory we're going in. PDO was basically neutral in 96-97. What the PDO does this winter isn't set in stone but expecting a magic pop positive is a low odds proposition. Mid-august plumes continue beating the neutral drum. Not much change there: When you start adding up all tools we like to use for wags there really isn't a clean equation to use. Enso in particular. We don't have good analogs of periods like we're in now. Even if we did, I'm realizing that what happened in the 70's and before don't mean as much now. It's simply harder to snow here. Ian made some good points a year or so ago about losing it on the margins. We get less early and late snow near the cities than we used to. That part is a temp thing. We all got sucker punched last year by a single degree in temps. In 1965 it would have been a huge late snowstorm (IMO). I think it's possible that we can expect what we saw this summer continue through the end of the year and into next. No big dominant heat ridges and seasonal temps. Periods of cool and warm mixed but nothing lasting a month or more like we've seen lately. I think half of December will be cold if not the whole month. I also think odds favor a modest snow in December as well. Part of this I'll explain later but part of my reasoning is simply things evening out. We may be pleasantly surprised this winter. Maybe no big juicy miller A's or anything but conducive periods for modest storms in each of DJF. Reaching climo on the season will be an uphill battle IMO. But it's only september and weather could care less about what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I've been busy and haven't posted much lately. I have been looking at things from time to time. This still is one of the worst years to make an early guess in quite some time. Going slightly warmer and less snowy than climo is the only wag I think i could make and feel ok about. Even that isn't saying much. I've always been a believer of dominant patterns and oscillations evening themselves out over time (stating the obvious). Patterns oscillations are tricky though. There are just too many out there and complex interactions between them give the best forecasters and weather computers fits let alone armchair weenies trying to make sense of it. This summer was a big change in the NH compared to many recent ones. Especially the arctic. I personally think this is a signal of some sort that will carry over through the end of the year and into the next. I read the ice thread from time to time and iirc some are calling this year a "bump year". Not a reversal or anything but there was a massive shift in weather patterns this summer in the arctic basin compared to the last.....17?? The 17 year thing is my own observation based on a couple simple charts. JJA this summer has been the first +NAO dominant summer since 1996. NAO JJA.PNG This summer is also the biggest bump in arctic sea ice since 1996. ice graph.PNG There some important reasons not to use 1996 as a perfect analog. 96-97 was enso neutral but on the heels of a weak/mod nina. Not a good comparison to the territory we're going in. PDO was basically neutral in 96-97. What the PDO does this winter isn't set in stone but expecting a magic pop positive is a low odds proposition. Mid-august plumes continue beating the neutral drum. Not much change there: MidAug Enso Plumes.PNG When you start adding up all tools we like to use for wags there really isn't a clean equation to use. Enso in particular. We don't have good analogs of periods like we're in now. Even if we did, I'm realizing that what happened in the 70's and before don't mean as much now. It's simply harder to snow here. Ian made some good points a year or so ago about losing it on the margins. We get less early and late snow near the cities than we used to. That part is a temp thing. We all got sucker punched last year by a single degree in temps. In 1965 it would have been a huge late snowstorm (IMO). I think it's possible that we can expect what we saw this summer continue through the end of the year and into next. No big dominant heat ridges and seasonal temps. Periods of cool and warm mixed but nothing lasting a month or more like we've seen lately. I think half of December will be cold if not the whole month. I also think odds favor a modest snow in December as well. Part of this I'll explain later but part of my reasoning is simply things evening out. We may be pleasantly surprised this winter. Maybe no big juicy miller A's or anything but conducive periods for modest storms in each of DJF. Reaching climo on the season will be an uphill battle IMO. But it's only september and weather could care less about what I think. nice post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 nice post I'll 2nd that even though I still remember mowing my lawn 1 year after the 96 blizzard, and then it got colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 you guys need a January 13th-14th, 1982 storm/s without the plane crash...if the nao and enso don't cooperate maybe the pna will...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 I'll 2nd that even though I still remember mowing my lawn 1 year after the 96 blizzard, and then it got colder LOL- I know it's kinda scary throwing around the 96-97 analog but I'm not really using it as a winter analog. Just a summer comparison. Yea, low heights around the pole and greenland are similar but it kinda ends there. We've been blessed this summer with the lw pattern of ridging way up into nw canada. This allowed easy relief in the GL-MA-NE because cold fronts were able to dive underneath the large area of low heights at high latitudes. 9 times out of 10 those low heights = a se ridge in some form or another. There are some other basic similarities though. Enso state isn't far off. The pdo could relax this year too. Even though we are in the middle of a long term - phase, there are bump years there too. Maybe the PDO is neutral this winter. Who knows. A cooler version of 96-97 is a reasonable wag. I don't see any reason to expect a dominant ec ridge pattern through the first half of winter. Sure it could happen but I personally doubt it. The irony in early winter last year was an uber -AO was rendered useless by a terrible pac. It completely eliminated a delivery mechanism to get cold here for like 6 weeks. Do we get the same terrible pac and storm track again for 6 weeks this winter? I highly doubt it. That's another part of my reasoning for a decent chance at December performing in some fashion. We haven't gotten locked into any long duration pattern since March. I see no reason for that not to continue as we approach and move into winter. nice post Thanks Matt. There's really not much for me to dig deep into. We all know what's on the table right now. It's not really all that complex but on the flip side what I'm seeing means that variability will be the theme unless something takes over. If the longwave pattern continues to flex and relax like it has this spring and summer we could score in different ways than we typically look for. Trailing waves on cold fronts with overrunning would be one way that i could see happening. Sure, things like that rarely produce more than 4-5" but I'm certainly not the least bit picky after the last 2 debacles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 you guys need a January 13th-14th, 1982 storm/s without the plane crash...if the nao and enso don't cooperate maybe the pna will...TWT... that was a classic southern stream event...the northern stream got punished....which isn't surprising since we were in a persistent +PDO phase and in the neutral part of a 7-year warm event....The idea that we can get a storm barreling across the southern plains with a low out of the GOM that bombs off Hatteras in unthinkable in the current oppressive regime.....we know exactly what would happen in a Jan 1982 pattern here....the northern stream would annihilate any attempt for a southern stream low to attempt a climb on its own....it would be crushed off the coast, or more likely there would be a 984mb primary low in northeastern OH at the same time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I posted this SSTA animation in the NE forum so I guess I should post it here from what I can tell, it's updated each day they update the daily map http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 LOL- I know it's kinda scary throwing around the 96-97 analog but I'm not really using it as a winter analog. Just a summer comparison. Yea, low heights around the pole and greenland are similar but it kinda ends there. We've been blessed this summer with the lw pattern of ridging way up into nw canada. This allowed easy relief in the GL-MA-NE because cold fronts were able to dive underneath the large area of low heights at high latitudes. 9 times out of 10 those low heights = a se ridge in some form or another. There are some other basic similarities though. Enso state isn't far off. The pdo could relax this year too. Even though we are in the middle of a long term - phase, there are bump years there too. Maybe the PDO is neutral this winter. Who knows. A cooler version of 96-97 is a reasonable wag. I don't see any reason to expect a dominant ec ridge pattern through the first half of winter. Sure it could happen but I personally doubt it. The irony in early winter last year was an uber -AO was rendered useless by a terrible pac. It completely eliminated a delivery mechanism to get cold here for like 6 weeks. Do we get the same terrible pac and storm track again for 6 weeks this winter? I highly doubt it. That's another part of my reasoning for a decent chance at December performing in some fashion. We haven't gotten locked into any long duration pattern since March. I see no reason for that not to continue as we approach and move into winter. Thanks Matt. There's really not much for me to dig deep into. We all know what's on the table right now. It's not really all that complex but on the flip side what I'm seeing means that variability will be the theme unless something takes over. If the longwave pattern continues to flex and relax like it has this spring and summer we could score in different ways than we typically look for. Trailing waves on cold fronts with overrunning would be one way that i could see happening. Sure, things like that rarely produce more than 4-5" but I'm certainly not the least bit picky after the last 2 debacles. There are things I like and don't like about 96-97 so far as an analog...as far as an actual winter it wasn't as bad as it looks...It was decent for the burbs...IAD got 18", BWI 15"...I got around 15" in Silver Spring...the Feb 8th storm was legit, but it was your standard bootleg air mass where every 3' of elevation mattered as snow fell at 33.8 degrees in a February sun....we both know in those winters where DC gets 5" and Ji gets 25", you better hope you are as far north and west as possible One thing people might not remember is November was frigid....which then caused all of us to think 95-96 redux only to have December derisively cackle at us....There was a decent snow event on 11/14...Rockville got 1-2"....IAD set a record low max...2nd earliest 35 degree max on record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I posted this SSTA animation in the NE forum so I guess I should post it here from what I can tell, it's updated each day they update the daily map http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html I almost threw up What happens when the GOA gets cold? What will be the new 40N justification for why we will have a good winter here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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