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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.


Bob Chill

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I just started thinking a little about the business of tracking potential snow. While it's pretty much a fruitless endeavor around here, I'm realizing it's kind of fun, especially during a slow day at work.

I've been mostly off the board this summer but my post count will look like a triple 7 payout on a Vegas slot when the first threat appears @ d10 on the euro control run.

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I think there will be a very cold month surrounded by not too far from average.  December like 0 to -1 and Feb. like 0 to +2.  January I think will be very cold, maybe December.  Very cold including -5 or colder.  Does not look snowy, 10-15" for DC area.

 Wierd with the analog years and lots came in but none dominated. They include 1947,51,63,68,83,89,2000,01,03,04.

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Updated Euro seasonal forecasts shows warm neutral conditions/bordering on weak nino (more west-based).  Of course last year, the Euro did not lock in on the correct winter ENSO state until October.  The next month should be "telling", as they say.

 

MDstorm

 

Eh.  I only care about what the CFSv2 has to say.

 

Where's mitch?

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This is the worst winter to try and make sense of at longs leads since I joined eastern in 06. Odds are stacked against a favorable stj. Everything else is on the table. That probably won't anytime soon either.

since it, practically speaking, can't get any worse than the last 2 years, it can only be better

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since it, practically speaking, can't get any worse than the last 2 years, it can only be better

i was looking at DC snowfall and the last two years have been brutal....in the last 125 years of record DC has.......

50" or more.....2.......2%...

40"-49.9"........7.......6%...

30"-39.9"......13.....10%...

20"-29.9"......25.....20%...

10"-19.9"......43.....34%...

T-9.9"...........35.....28%...

 

T-19.9".........78.....62%...

20"+.............47.....38%

the chances aren't good but it doesn't mean this year will be less than 20" for DC...

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This is the worst winter to try and make sense of at longs leads since I joined eastern in 06. Odds are stacked against a favorable stj. Everything else is on the table. That probably won't anytime soon either.

On the good side they did say it would be an active Hurricane season this year... So the exact opposite of what all the signals are telling us is possible.

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am I correct in recalling that the KA winter forecast comes next week with the first day of fall?

Yup--that's the way it usually works.  He did very well with his summer outlook.  With the ENSO regimen not forecasted to drastically change over the next few months, his upcoming winter outlook could also do well.  Of course, it he goes warm and snowless, I'm tossing it.   :pimp:

 

MDstorm

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