Bob Chill Posted September 7, 2013 Author Share Posted September 7, 2013 Uncle, the problem with the top 3 analogs is that yes, we might hit those #'s precip wise but outside of the far nw burbs it will be more rain than those years. Average temp air masses nowadays just aren't the same anymore. I don't know what the temp profiles were for the storms during those years but if any happened with temps AOA 30* then it would be rain today. EDIT: Just want to add that every cell in my body hopes you're right. If you are I'll buy you a truck load of your favorite beer. If you don't drink I'll pay for a world class high end call girl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Uncle, the problem with the top 3 analogs is that yes, we might hit those #'s precip wise but outside of the far nw burbs it will be more rain than those years. Average temp air masses nowadays just aren't the same anymore. I don't know what the temp profiles were for the storms during those years but if any happened with temps AOA 30* then it would be rain today. EDIT: Just want to add that every cell in my body hopes you're right. If you are I'll buy you a truck load of your favorite beer. If you don't drink I'll pay for a world class high end call girl. at least you have all the vices covered Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Uncle, the problem with the top 3 analogs is that yes, we might hit those #'s precip wise but outside of the far nw burbs it will be more rain than those years. Average temp air masses nowadays just aren't the same anymore. I don't know what the temp profiles were for the storms during those years but if any happened with temps AOA 30* then it would be rain today. EDIT: Just want to add that every cell in my body hopes you're right. If you are I'll buy you a truck load of your favorite beer. If you don't drink I'll pay for a world class high end call girl. Winter temps have warmed like half a degree to perhaps as much as a degree F in your neck of the woods since those days...its not a matter of a 30-31F snowstorm becoming a rainstorm now...that's way too much difference than has actually occurred. Cruddy storm tracks generally cause 34F rainstorms...not global warming between 1966 and 2013. The biggest difference is its harder to get absolutely brutally cold winters now and extreme arctic outbreaks. There's surely some effect on snow too, but 99% of it is storm tracks and the type of regime you are in. Its been a pretty unfavorable regime recently ala late 40s to mid/late 1950s which was also pretty sucky in DC. Plenty of warm clunkers in there too. You get a few neutrals following a Nino, and you'll probably see the difference...and some +PDO winters. The correlation seems to be very high. Its hard to ignore the stats that zwyts put out on them...the sample isn't monstrous, but it isn't small either. It is large enough to be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Uncle, the problem with the top 3 analogs is that yes, we might hit those #'s precip wise but outside of the far nw burbs it will be more rain than those years. Average temp air masses nowadays just aren't the same anymore. I don't know what the temp profiles were for the storms during those years but if any happened with temps AOA 30* then it would be rain today. EDIT: Just want to add that every cell in my body hopes you're right. If you are I'll buy you a truck load of your favorite beer. If you don't drink I'll pay for a world class high end call girl. if it happens it's because I guessed right...it could easily be 2001-02 again...It's only speculation at this point...I just wanted to show some great analogs with weak negative enso's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I found a snowsuit on Amazon that was on sale, bought it for my daughter. Probably jinxed my entire winter now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I found a snowsuit on Amazon that was on sale, bought it for my daughter. Probably jinxed my entire winter now. I've been jinxing DC since 2002 minus one year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I found a snowsuit on Amazon that was on sale, bought it for my daughter. Probably jinxed my entire winter now. I expect reports of days and days of snow from Mt. Parkton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I found a snowsuit on Amazon that was on sale, bought it for my daughter. Probably jinxed my entire winter now. Meh, I purchased an ice scraper so it's partially my fault too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I expect reports of days and days of snow from Mt. Parkton. I figure it could double as a flotation device should we only get days and days of rain instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Meh, I purchased an ice scraper so it's partially my fault too. I still have a big bag of salt from 2 years ago that I bought in the fall. Can't even use it for margaritas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I've been jinxing DC since 2002 minus one year Ahh Dec 5 2009. what an awesome day out here. Oh wait you had rain, thats right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I heard that the Steelers' loss at home yesterday was the first home opener loss for them since 2002, so we've got that going for us. at least Raven's Rule will appreciate this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I still have a big bag of salt from 2 years ago that I bought in the fall. Can't even use it for margaritas Old Man Winter dropped a big bag of s**t on us two years ago, and it's still hanging around the DC area, stinking up the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 I still have a big bag of salt from 2 years ago that I bought in the fall. Can't even use it for margaritas Just fertilize your lawn with it and sell your mower. win-win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Winter Disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Ahh Dec 5 2009. what an awesome day out here. Oh wait you had rain, thats right DSC_0226.JPG Beautiful! Definitely need to head west this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Beautiful! Definitely need to head west this winter! you just need to get higher than 20-30' above sea level in Pasadena neighbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Here's to long nights of watching the models and hopefully seeing things like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Here's to long nights of watching the models and hopefully seeing things like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Speak for yourself, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Here's to long nights of watching the models and hopefully seeing things like this. It would be long nights, because there would be no excitement in tracking a rainstorm in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Ahh Dec 5 2009. what an awesome day out here. Oh wait you had rain, thats right DSC_0226.JPG Nice picture. 325' of elevation and a little west-ness helped me out on that one, and ended up with 5". I thought it would change over at some point, but it just kept snowing all day. Ahhh...the memories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Here's to long nights of watching the models and hopefully seeing things like this. I sure hope this isn't the best the CFS long range can do for the upcoming winter...a cold rain in late FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Beautiful! Definitely need to head west this winter! That was my first winter down here in Nova after moving from New england. Probably the first time in years we actually got our Christmas tree and it was snowing out. It never happened for us up north. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 That was my first winter down here in Nova after moving from New england. Probably the first time in years we actually got our Christmas tree and it was snowing out. It never happened for us up north. Go figure do us a favor and move back north next week then come back at the end of November let us know where we can reach you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I just started thinking a little about the business of tracking potential snow. While it's pretty much a fruitless endeavor around here, I'm realizing it's kind of fun, especially during a slow day at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I heard that the Steelers' loss at home yesterday was the first home opener loss for them since 2002, so we've got that going for us. at least Raven's Rule will appreciate this post I appreciate everything you post . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 We are guaranteed to get rocked now: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/09/10/3617695/almanac-says-get-ready-for-colder.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 We are guaranteed to get rocked now: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/09/10/3617695/almanac-says-get-ready-for-colder.html so what does a lawsuit proceeding against Lady Gaga mean to our weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 so what does a lawsuit proceeding against Lady Gaga mean to our weather? Just snow, gonna be okay, da da doo-doo-mmm, just snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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