Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.


Bob Chill

Recommended Posts

la nina or weak negative years usually bring slightly above average temperatures over all and January is usually the coldest month...here are 15 la nina/weak negative years...all February's were milder...December had variable results...the map looks warm but there were a few cold Deembers mixed in...1960-61 had an oni of 0.0 for DJF...January was the coldest month...there are some la nina years with February as the coldest month...1971-72 is one example...

years DJF oni...

1954-55 -0.7

1956-57 -0.3

1964-65 -0.6

1970-71 -1.2

1975-76 -1.5

1980-81 -0.4

1981-82 -0.1

1983-84 -0.5

1984-85 -1.0

1995-96 -0.9

1996-97 -0.5

1998-99 -1.5

1999-00 -1.7

2008-09 -0.8

2010-11 -1.4

 

post-343-0-46574500-1377994649_thumb.png

post-343-0-27344200-1377994666_thumb.png

post-343-0-16004200-1377995461_thumb.png

post-343-0-39161500-1377996088_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

la nina or weak negative years usually bring slightly above average temperatures over all and January is usually the coldest month...here are 15 la nina/weak negative years...all February's were milder...December had variable results...the map looks warm but there were a few cold Deembers mixed in...1960-61 had an oni of 0.0 for DJF...January was the coldest month...there are some la nina years with February as the coldest month...1971-72 is one example...

years DJF oni...

1954-55 -0.7

1956-57 -0.3

1964-65 -0.6

1970-71 -1.2

1975-76 -1.5

1980-81 -0.4

1981-82 -0.1

1983-84 -0.5

1984-85 -1.0

1995-96 -0.9

1996-97 -0.5

1998-99 -1.5

1999-00 -1.7

2008-09 -0.8

2010-11 -1.4

 thanks Uncle

I ain't expecting much but it's too early to throw in the towel (well, maybe a washcloth)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 thanks Uncle

I ain't expecting much but it's too early to throw in the towel (well, maybe a washcloth)

Despite all the posturing in August, most here have zero idea what will happen and are just guessing. If they had firmer ideas they'd be forecasting for pay and making money. No one can predict when a storm might appear and dump snow on us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Despite all the posturing in August, most here have zero idea what will happen and are just guessing. If they had firmer ideas they'd be forecasting for pay and making money. No one can predict when a storm might appear and dump snow on us.

You definitely have a better chance living 80 miles from most of us. The Niño thing is very very real. To pretend that have equal cHances despite Enso state and PDo state is ignorance. Nobody can say anything for certain, but this notion that it is all up in the air is silly. We can make educated guesses and broad brush predictions. It is very hard to get a KU without a southern stream here. Doesn't mean if cant happen but the odds are stacked against us where they are much higher in a niño or multi year warm state. We really need to time something. We certainly have. But it also depends on your definition of a big storm. Something 6-12"? That is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Maybe even close to 50-50 where you are.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

neutral conditions are forecast for next winter...DCA snowfall usually is better than average with neutral enso...It is also a little cooler on average...One third of the years had over 20" of snowfall...eight were between 10-20"...six are below 10"...eleven were colder than average...ten above average...I hope my stats are correct...

A list of years witha DJF oni +0.5 to -0.5...

season.....DJFoni.....snowfall.....ave temp...

1979-80.....+0.5.......20.1".......39.0...mild snowy

1952-53.....+0.5.........8.3".......40.7...mild with less snowfall

2003-04.....+0.3.......12.4".......36.0...cold with less snowfall

1990-91.....+0.3.........8.1".......42.0...mild with less snowfall

1992-93.....+0.2.......11.7".......37.9...normal with less snowfall

1993-94.....+0.1.......13.2".......34.4...cold with less snowfall

1989-90.....+0.1.......15.3".......38.9...mild with near average snowfall

1960-61.......0.0.......40.3".......33.0...cold/snowy

1959-60......-0.1.......24.3".......39.5...mild/snowy

1978-79......-0.1.......37.7".......35.5...cold/snowy

1981-82......-0.1.......22.5".......35.0...cold/snowy

1961-62......-0.2.......15.0".......35.2...cold with near average snowfall

2001-02......-0.2.........3.2".......43.2...mild with less snowfall

1956-57......-0.3.......14.2".......39.5...mild with near average snowfall

1966-67......-0.3.......37.1".......37.5...normal/snowy

1962-63......-0.4.......21.4".......31.9...cold/snowy

1980-81......-0.4.........4.5".......38.8...mild with less snowfall

1974-75......-0.5.......12.8".......41.5...mild with less snowfall

1983-84......-0.5.........8.6".......37.3...normal with less snowfall

1985-86......-0.5.......15.4".......35.7...cold with near average snowfall

1996-97......-0.5.........6.7".......41.6...mild with less snowfall

 

21 yr ave.................16.8".......37.8

normal......................15.4.......38.2

seven winters were mild with less snowfall than average...

three were cold with less snowfall than average...

one was cold with near average snowfall

one was normal and snowy

two were cold with near average snowfall

five winters were cold and snowy...

two were mild and snowy...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

neutral conditions are forecast for next winter...DCA snowfall usually is better than average with neutral enso...It is also a little cooler on average...One third of the years had over 20" of snowfall...eight were between 10-20"...six are below 10"...eleven were colder than average...ten above average...I hope my stats are correct...

A list of years witha DJF oni +0.5 to -0.5...

season.....DJFoni.....snowfall.....ave temp...

1979-80.....+0.5.......20.1".......39.0...mild snowy

1952-53.....+0.5.........8.3".......40.7...mild with less snowfall

2003-04.....+0.3.......12.4".......36.0...cold with less snowfall

1990-91.....+0.3.........8.1".......42.0...mild with less snowfall

1992-93.....+0.2.......11.7".......37.9...normal with less snowfall

1993-94.....+0.1.......13.2".......34.4...cold with less snowfall

1989-90.....+0.1.......15.3".......38.9...mild with near average snowfall

1960-61.......0.0.......40.3".......33.0...cold/snowy

1959-60......-0.1.......24.3".......39.5...mild/snowy

1978-79......-0.1.......37.7".......35.5...cold/snowy

1981-82......-0.1.......22.5".......35.0...cold/snowy

1961-62......-0.2.......15.0".......35.2...cold with near average snowfall

2001-02......-0.2.........3.2".......43.2...mild with less snowfall

1956-57......-0.3.......14.2".......39.5...mild with near average snowfall

1966-67......-0.3.......37.1".......37.5...normal/snowy

1962-63......-0.4.......21.4".......31.9...cold/snowy

1980-81......-0.4.........4.5".......38.8...mild with less snowfall

1974-75......-0.5.......12.8".......41.5...mild with less snowfall

1983-84......-0.5.........8.6".......37.3...normal with less snowfall

1985-86......-0.5.......15.4".......35.7...cold with near average snowfall

1996-97......-0.5.........6.7".......41.6...mild with less snowfall

 

21 yr ave.................16.8".......37.8

normal......................15.4.......38.2

seven winters were mild with less snowfall than average...

three were cold with less snowfall than average...

one was cold with near average snowfall

one was normal and snowy

two were cold with near average snowfall

five winters were cold and snowy...

two were mild and snowy...

 

words of encouragement....thanks Uncle!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Call me crazy but I think this winter will treat your area quite nicely.

Hope you're right, but you say that pretty much every year

No. 2 years ago I was bearish and flipped around Halloween when I observed 2 robust squirrels copulating on a hillside. I looked up and said..."I hear ya". Lying muthufukkas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think our probability of a snowier than normal winter at less than 50%, probably more in the 30% range as I don't see a nino.   Still the winter should be snowier than the last couple of winters.

statistically speaking, BWI has never had more than 2 single digit snowfall years in a row so that's probably close to 100% chance of verifying (gotta' leave a couple of percentage points for us to reach a new, all-time low around here :cry: )

in fact, at BWI only the consecutive winters of 49/50 and 50/51 combined totaled less than the last 2 winters (if you want to call them that!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

for the record BWI snow depth since 1947-48...

................days..........consecutive...
season.....1"...6"...10"....1"...6"...10"...max depth

1947-48....21...01...00....10...01...00.....6"
1948-49....08...01...00....03...01...00.....6"
1949-50....00...00...00....00...00...00.....trace
1950-51....06...00...00....02...00...00.....2"
1951-52....06...01...00....03...01...00.....6"
1952-53....07...00...00....02...00...00.....3"
1953-54....18...02...00....09...02...00.....6"
1954-55....12...00...00....04...00...00.....2"
1955-56....21...01...00....14...01...00.....6"
1956-57....15...01...00....08...01...00.....6"
1957-58....35...11...05....10...07...05...16"
1958-59....05...00...00....02...00...00.....1"
1959-60....23...08...01....12...04...01...10"

1960-61....52...20...03....30...05...01...13"
1961-62....20...02...01....09...02...01...10"
1962-63....32...00...00....20...00...00.....5"
1963-64....35...08...00....11...02...00.....9"
1964-65....22...00...00....13...00...00.....5"
1965-66....23...11...06....18...10...06...17"
1966-67....28...10...03....08...05...02...10"
1967-68....22...02...00....05...02...00.....8"
1968-69....09...00...00....03...00...00.....3"
1969-70....24...01...00....10...01...00.....6"

1970-71....10...01...00....06...01...00.....6"
1971-72....11...00...00....08...00...00.....4"
1972-73....02...00...00....02...00...00.....1"
1973-74....13...02...00....06...01...00.....6"
1974-75....11...00...00....04...00...00.....4"
1975-76....07...02...00....03...02...00.....8"
1976-77....21...00...00....16...00...00.....3"
1977-78....31...03...00....12...03...00.....9"
1978-79....25...11...05....19...06...05...22"
1979-80....14...00...00....06...00...00.....5"

1980-81....03...00...00....02...00...00.....2"
1981-82....29...10...00....19...07...00.....8"
1982-83....19...07...06....11...06...06...23"
1983-84....20...00...00....10...00...00.....5"
1984-85....13...00...00....06...00...00.....3"
1985-86....14...00...00....07...00...00.....5"
1986-87....21...12...10....14...11...05...17"
1987-88....18...02...00....10...02...00.....7"
1988-89....09...00...00....03...00...00.....3"
1989-90....28...00...00....22...00...00.....5"

1990-91....07...00...00....03...00...00.....4"
1991-92....04...00...00....02...00...00.....2"
1992-93....15...04...01....07...04...01...11"
1993-94....24...00...00....07...00...00.....4"
1994-95....08...01...00....08...01...00.....7"
1995-96....28...15...11....12...12...11...25"
1996-97....12...01...00....07...01...00.....6"
1997-98....03...00...00....01...00...00.....1"
1998-99....17...00...00....06...00...00.....5"
1999-00....23...05...04....22...05...04...15"

2000-01....10...00...00....04...00...00.....4"
2001-02....03...00...00....03...00...00.....2"
2002-03....42...10...05....19...06...05...18"
2003-04....22...03...00....13...03...00.....6"
2004-05....17...00...00....08...00...00.....5"
2005-06....10...01...01....05...01...01...13"
2006-07....13...00...00....07...00...00.....4"
2007-08....08...00...00....04...00...00.....4"
2008-09....10...00...00....05...00...00.....5"
2009-10....38...26...18....25...17...13...34"
2010-11....17...01...00....11...01...00.....7"
2011-12....01...00...00....01...00...00.....1"

2012-13....06...00...00....03...00...00.....3"

Most/least days 1"
52 1960-61 ... 00 1949-50
42 2002-03 ... 01 2011-12
38 2009-10 ... 02 1972-73
35 1957-58 ... 03 1980-81
35 1963-64 ... 03 1997-98
32 1962-63 ... 03 2001-02
31 1977-78 ... 04 1991-92
29 1981-82 ... 05 1958-59
28 1966-67 ... 06 1950-51
28 1989-90 ... 06 1951-52
28 1995-96 ... 06 2012-13
..........................................
days 6"
26 2009-10
20 1960-61
15 1995-96
12 1986-87
11 1957-58
11 1965-66
11 1978-79
10 1966-67
10 1981-82
10 2002-03
days 10"
17 2009-10
11 1995-96
10 1986-87
06 1965-66
06 1982-83
05 1957-58
05 1978-79
05 2002-03
04 1999-00
Consecutive days 1"
30 1960-61
25 2009-10
22 1989-90
22 1999-00
21 1960-61* two separate streaks..
20 1962-63
19 1978-79
19 1981-82
19 2002-03
18 1965-66
Consecutive days 6"
17 2009-10
12 1995-96
11 1986-87
10 1965-66
07 1957-58
07 1981-82
06 1978-79
06 1982-83
06 2002-03
Consecutive days 10"
13 2009-10
11 1995-96
06 1965-66
06 1982-83
05 1957-58
05 1978-79
05 1986-87
05 2002-03
04 1999-00
Maximum depth...
34" 2009-10
25" 1995-96
23" 1982-83
22" 1978-79
18" 2002-03
17" 1965-66
17" 1986-87
16" 1957-58
15" 1999-00
13" 1960-61
13" 2005-06
11" 1992-93
10" 1959-60
10" 1961-62
10" 1966-67

...................................

10" depths buy decade...

1950's...1

1960's...5

1970's...1

1980's...2

1990's...2

2000's...3

2009-10 is well a head for maximum depth...most 6" and 10" days...consecutive 6" and 10" days...1960-61 has the most 1" days and consecutive 1" days...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Neutral to weak niño with a North Pacific more ninoish look. Stay hopeful

 

 

That Enso state would probably be the worst possible for us.

 

 

Probably tons of miller Bs. Esp if PNA stayed neutral/neg

 

 

I think our probability of a snowier than normal winter at less than 50%, probably more in the 30% range as I don't see a nino.   Still the winter should be snowier than the last couple of winters.

 

 

I'm still not very jazzed on snow....ENSO has warmed significantly lately, but not sure that will last...and the PDO region is still wretched....We know what we get in neutral/-pdo periods during a general Nina/Neutral period...A ridge over the Aleutians...a -PNA, and a warm winter....even if we were to get blocking, it benefits 40N and we are colder but still have a bad storm track as the cold anomaly is to our north...so I feel like I can't rule out a cold month, but it will probably mostly mean 0.06" QPF atrocities from our w/nw....maybe I am being myopic, but I don't really see how we back into a decent snow winter unless we thread the needle and get fluked...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still not very jazzed on snow....ENSO has warmed significantly lately, but not sure that will last...and the PDO region is still wretched....We know what we get in neutral/-pdo periods during a general Nina/Neutral period...A ridge over the Aleutians...a -PNA, and a warm winter....even if we were to get blocking, it benefits 40N and we are colder but still have a bad storm track as the cold anomaly is to our north...so I feel like I can't rule out a cold month, but it will probably mostly mean 0.06" QPF atrocities from our w/nw....maybe I am being myopic, but I don't really see how we back into a decent snow winter unless we thread the needle and get fluked...

that seasonal track/boundary has only got to shift 75 miles south of its "typical" spot for things to change from a sloppy <1" and rain event to 3-4" moderate event topped by sleet or zr

as long as we get some precip, a neutral Enso gives us equal chances of being 10" or 20" snowfall year based on Uncle's post above, so we'll need some luck (which is exactly what we need every year to get above average)

actually, the last few years have me more concerned about getting some decent qpf to fall, never mind the storm track

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not on board for any KU events, but think we can have a decent winter. If 75-100% of climo is decent-- most should be happy with  that following the past 2 winters. (which haven't really sucked down here)

 

Those runners up into the southern WV area can be decent snow to ice events, (changing to rain in the coastals)

 

2-3 events of 2-4 than ice plus maybe 1 5-10 incher would make for a decent winter. Pack 2-3 of those in a 10 day stretch ala -NAO period and most would be decently happy. (with reasonable expectations) 

 

What will it take to make you happy?

 

If my winter ends up like this event wise..

 

7.5 all snow, 4 with ice on top, 3.5 clipper and 2 inch slush/ice with a couple other traces/dustings --17 inches or so is decent for me. I'd hope I can sneak a weekend trip to Snowshoe or something as well for a little bigger event. (That's not far off from what I had last year)

 

 

There has been something magical about that I-64 cut off from confluence or whatever in the past 2-3 winters. (Big SW VA events)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that seasonal track/boundary has only got to shift 75 miles south of its "typical" spot for things to change from a sloppy <1" and rain event to 3-4" moderate event topped by sleet or zr

as long as we get some precip, a neutral Enso gives us equal chances of being 10" or 20" snowfall year based on Uncle's post above, so we'll need some luck (which is exactly what we need every year to get above average)

actually, the last few years have me more concerned about getting some decent qpf to fall, never mind the storm track

 

Not all neutral's are the same...that would apply if current ENSO state is the only criteria you are using....I have made the case throughout this thread that the snowier neutrals aren't really applicable...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not all neutral's are the same...that would apply if current ENSO state is the only criteria you are using....I have made the case throughout this thread that the snowier neutrals aren't really applicable...

I agree, just like all strong NINO's aren't the same but since ENSO is typically our biggest large scale factor and it's a little early to look at anything else, Uncle's neutral ENSO show a 50/50 shot (and maybe too early to look at ENSO for that matter, but this being all rhetorical, wtf)

I guess what I'm saying is I ain't gunna' throw in the towel, neutral or otherwise, since we won't know where the main storm tracks set-up for another 2-3 more months and because BWI/Baltimore has never had 3-single digit snowfall winters in a row

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree, just like all strong NINO's aren't the same but since ENSO is typically our biggest large scale factor and it's a little early to look at anything else, Uncle's neutral ENSO show a 50/50 shot (and maybe too early to look at ENSO for that matter, but this being all rhetorical, wtf)

I guess what I'm saying is I ain't gunna' throw in the towel, neutral or otherwise, since we won't know where the main storm tracks set-up for another 2-3 more months and because BWI/Baltimore has never had 3-single digit snowfall winters in a row

 

it is going to set up to our north and west...the question is whether we are cold and whether we can capitalize during some PNA spikes...but the prevalent storm track will be to our west (other than perhaps early and late season)...that is pretty much a lock imo

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would be nice if some snow decided to stick to the streets this year. Nickled and dimed our way to almost 20" last year which is good but it was mostly conversational snow that painted a pretty picture for a minute. I recognize this was better than many so I'm not complaining but I'm thinking a bigger dump at least once this year would be preferable over the snizzle events but eh....I will appreciate all we get

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree, just like all strong NINO's aren't the same but since ENSO is typically our biggest large scale factor and it's a little early to look at anything else, Uncle's neutral ENSO show a 50/50 shot (and maybe too early to look at ENSO for that matter, but this being all rhetorical, wtf)

I guess what I'm saying is I ain't gunna' throw in the towel, neutral or otherwise, since we won't know where the main storm tracks set-up for another 2-3 more months and because BWI/Baltimore has never had 3-single digit snowfall winters in a row

it is going to set up to our north and west...the question is whether we are cold and whether we can capitalize during some PNA spikes...but the prevalent storm track will be to our west (other than perhaps early and late season)...that is pretty much a lock imo

What was the DC total in 2004-05?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...