uncle W Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 la nina or weak negative years usually bring slightly above average temperatures over all and January is usually the coldest month...here are 15 la nina/weak negative years...all February's were milder...December had variable results...the map looks warm but there were a few cold Deembers mixed in...1960-61 had an oni of 0.0 for DJF...January was the coldest month...there are some la nina years with February as the coldest month...1971-72 is one example... years DJF oni... 1954-55 -0.7 1956-57 -0.3 1964-65 -0.6 1970-71 -1.2 1975-76 -1.5 1980-81 -0.4 1981-82 -0.1 1983-84 -0.5 1984-85 -1.0 1995-96 -0.9 1996-97 -0.5 1998-99 -1.5 1999-00 -1.7 2008-09 -0.8 2010-11 -1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 la nina or weak negative years usually bring slightly above average temperatures over all and January is usually the coldest month...here are 15 la nina/weak negative years...all February's were milder...December had variable results...the map looks warm but there were a few cold Deembers mixed in...1960-61 had an oni of 0.0 for DJF...January was the coldest month...there are some la nina years with February as the coldest month...1971-72 is one example... years DJF oni... 1954-55 -0.7 1956-57 -0.3 1964-65 -0.6 1970-71 -1.2 1975-76 -1.5 1980-81 -0.4 1981-82 -0.1 1983-84 -0.5 1984-85 -1.0 1995-96 -0.9 1996-97 -0.5 1998-99 -1.5 1999-00 -1.7 2008-09 -0.8 2010-11 -1.4 thanks Uncle I ain't expecting much but it's too early to throw in the towel (well, maybe a washcloth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 thanks Uncle I ain't expecting much but it's too early to throw in the towel (well, maybe a washcloth) Despite all the posturing in August, most here have zero idea what will happen and are just guessing. If they had firmer ideas they'd be forecasting for pay and making money. No one can predict when a storm might appear and dump snow on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Despite all the posturing in August, most here have zero idea what will happen and are just guessing. If they had firmer ideas they'd be forecasting for pay and making money. No one can predict when a storm might appear and dump snow on us. You definitely have a better chance living 80 miles from most of us. The Niño thing is very very real. To pretend that have equal cHances despite Enso state and PDo state is ignorance. Nobody can say anything for certain, but this notion that it is all up in the air is silly. We can make educated guesses and broad brush predictions. It is very hard to get a KU without a southern stream here. Doesn't mean if cant happen but the odds are stacked against us where they are much higher in a niño or multi year warm state. We really need to time something. We certainly have. But it also depends on your definition of a big storm. Something 6-12"? That is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Maybe even close to 50-50 where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Looks like arctic sea ice "may" be bottoming out (much better than last few years) and I see some snow has fallen already at Barrow, AK (EDIT: It has already melted from earlier in the day!) http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 neutral conditions are forecast for next winter...DCA snowfall usually is better than average with neutral enso...It is also a little cooler on average...One third of the years had over 20" of snowfall...eight were between 10-20"...six are below 10"...eleven were colder than average...ten above average...I hope my stats are correct... A list of years witha DJF oni +0.5 to -0.5... season.....DJFoni.....snowfall.....ave temp... 1979-80.....+0.5.......20.1".......39.0...mild snowy 1952-53.....+0.5.........8.3".......40.7...mild with less snowfall 2003-04.....+0.3.......12.4".......36.0...cold with less snowfall 1990-91.....+0.3.........8.1".......42.0...mild with less snowfall 1992-93.....+0.2.......11.7".......37.9...normal with less snowfall 1993-94.....+0.1.......13.2".......34.4...cold with less snowfall 1989-90.....+0.1.......15.3".......38.9...mild with near average snowfall 1960-61.......0.0.......40.3".......33.0...cold/snowy 1959-60......-0.1.......24.3".......39.5...mild/snowy 1978-79......-0.1.......37.7".......35.5...cold/snowy 1981-82......-0.1.......22.5".......35.0...cold/snowy 1961-62......-0.2.......15.0".......35.2...cold with near average snowfall 2001-02......-0.2.........3.2".......43.2...mild with less snowfall 1956-57......-0.3.......14.2".......39.5...mild with near average snowfall 1966-67......-0.3.......37.1".......37.5...normal/snowy 1962-63......-0.4.......21.4".......31.9...cold/snowy 1980-81......-0.4.........4.5".......38.8...mild with less snowfall 1974-75......-0.5.......12.8".......41.5...mild with less snowfall 1983-84......-0.5.........8.6".......37.3...normal with less snowfall 1985-86......-0.5.......15.4".......35.7...cold with near average snowfall 1996-97......-0.5.........6.7".......41.6...mild with less snowfall 21 yr ave.................16.8".......37.8 normal......................15.4.......38.2 seven winters were mild with less snowfall than average... three were cold with less snowfall than average... one was cold with near average snowfall one was normal and snowy two were cold with near average snowfall five winters were cold and snowy... two were mild and snowy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 neutral conditions are forecast for next winter...DCA snowfall usually is better than average with neutral enso...It is also a little cooler on average...One third of the years had over 20" of snowfall...eight were between 10-20"...six are below 10"...eleven were colder than average...ten above average...I hope my stats are correct... A list of years witha DJF oni +0.5 to -0.5... season.....DJFoni.....snowfall.....ave temp... 1979-80.....+0.5.......20.1".......39.0...mild snowy 1952-53.....+0.5.........8.3".......40.7...mild with less snowfall 2003-04.....+0.3.......12.4".......36.0...cold with less snowfall 1990-91.....+0.3.........8.1".......42.0...mild with less snowfall 1992-93.....+0.2.......11.7".......37.9...normal with less snowfall 1993-94.....+0.1.......13.2".......34.4...cold with less snowfall 1989-90.....+0.1.......15.3".......38.9...mild with near average snowfall 1960-61.......0.0.......40.3".......33.0...cold/snowy 1959-60......-0.1.......24.3".......39.5...mild/snowy 1978-79......-0.1.......37.7".......35.5...cold/snowy 1981-82......-0.1.......22.5".......35.0...cold/snowy 1961-62......-0.2.......15.0".......35.2...cold with near average snowfall 2001-02......-0.2.........3.2".......43.2...mild with less snowfall 1956-57......-0.3.......14.2".......39.5...mild with near average snowfall 1966-67......-0.3.......37.1".......37.5...normal/snowy 1962-63......-0.4.......21.4".......31.9...cold/snowy 1980-81......-0.4.........4.5".......38.8...mild with less snowfall 1974-75......-0.5.......12.8".......41.5...mild with less snowfall 1983-84......-0.5.........8.6".......37.3...normal with less snowfall 1985-86......-0.5.......15.4".......35.7...cold with near average snowfall 1996-97......-0.5.........6.7".......41.6...mild with less snowfall 21 yr ave.................16.8".......37.8 normal......................15.4.......38.2 seven winters were mild with less snowfall than average... three were cold with less snowfall than average... one was cold with near average snowfall one was normal and snowy two were cold with near average snowfall five winters were cold and snowy... two were mild and snowy... words of encouragement....thanks Uncle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Neutral to weak niño with a North Pacific more ninoish look. Stay hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Neutral to weak niño with a North Pacific more ninoish look. Stay hopeful That Enso state would probably be the worst possible for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 That Enso state would probably be the worst possible for us. Probably tons of miller Bs. Esp if PNA stayed neutral/neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Probably tons of miller Bs. Esp if PNA stayed neutral/neg I hate that name "miller" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 That Enso state would probably be the worst possible for us. Call me crazy but I think this winter will treat your area quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Call me crazy but I think this winter will treat your area quite nicely. Hope you're right, but you say that pretty much every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Call me crazy but I think this winter will treat your area quite nicely. Hope you're right, but you say that pretty much every year No. 2 years ago I was bearish and flipped around Halloween when I observed 2 robust squirrels copulating on a hillside. I looked up and said..."I hear ya". Lying muthufukkas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I think our probability of a snowier than normal winter at less than 50%, probably more in the 30% range as I don't see a nino. Still the winter should be snowier than the last couple of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 No. 2 years ago I was bearish and flipped around Halloween when I observed 2 robust squirrels copulating on a hillside. I looked up and said..."I hear ya". Lying muthufukkas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I think our probability of a snowier than normal winter at less than 50%, probably more in the 30% range as I don't see a nino. Still the winter should be snowier than the last couple of winters. statistically speaking, BWI has never had more than 2 single digit snowfall years in a row so that's probably close to 100% chance of verifying (gotta' leave a couple of percentage points for us to reach a new, all-time low around here ) in fact, at BWI only the consecutive winters of 49/50 and 50/51 combined totaled less than the last 2 winters (if you want to call them that!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 for the record BWI snow depth since 1947-48... ................days..........consecutive...season.....1"...6"...10"....1"...6"...10"...max depth1947-48....21...01...00....10...01...00.....6"1948-49....08...01...00....03...01...00.....6"1949-50....00...00...00....00...00...00.....trace1950-51....06...00...00....02...00...00.....2"1951-52....06...01...00....03...01...00.....6"1952-53....07...00...00....02...00...00.....3"1953-54....18...02...00....09...02...00.....6"1954-55....12...00...00....04...00...00.....2"1955-56....21...01...00....14...01...00.....6"1956-57....15...01...00....08...01...00.....6"1957-58....35...11...05....10...07...05...16"1958-59....05...00...00....02...00...00.....1"1959-60....23...08...01....12...04...01...10"1960-61....52...20...03....30...05...01...13"1961-62....20...02...01....09...02...01...10"1962-63....32...00...00....20...00...00.....5"1963-64....35...08...00....11...02...00.....9"1964-65....22...00...00....13...00...00.....5"1965-66....23...11...06....18...10...06...17"1966-67....28...10...03....08...05...02...10"1967-68....22...02...00....05...02...00.....8"1968-69....09...00...00....03...00...00.....3"1969-70....24...01...00....10...01...00.....6"1970-71....10...01...00....06...01...00.....6"1971-72....11...00...00....08...00...00.....4"1972-73....02...00...00....02...00...00.....1"1973-74....13...02...00....06...01...00.....6"1974-75....11...00...00....04...00...00.....4"1975-76....07...02...00....03...02...00.....8"1976-77....21...00...00....16...00...00.....3"1977-78....31...03...00....12...03...00.....9"1978-79....25...11...05....19...06...05...22"1979-80....14...00...00....06...00...00.....5"1980-81....03...00...00....02...00...00.....2"1981-82....29...10...00....19...07...00.....8"1982-83....19...07...06....11...06...06...23"1983-84....20...00...00....10...00...00.....5"1984-85....13...00...00....06...00...00.....3"1985-86....14...00...00....07...00...00.....5"1986-87....21...12...10....14...11...05...17"1987-88....18...02...00....10...02...00.....7"1988-89....09...00...00....03...00...00.....3"1989-90....28...00...00....22...00...00.....5"1990-91....07...00...00....03...00...00.....4"1991-92....04...00...00....02...00...00.....2"1992-93....15...04...01....07...04...01...11"1993-94....24...00...00....07...00...00.....4"1994-95....08...01...00....08...01...00.....7"1995-96....28...15...11....12...12...11...25"1996-97....12...01...00....07...01...00.....6"1997-98....03...00...00....01...00...00.....1"1998-99....17...00...00....06...00...00.....5"1999-00....23...05...04....22...05...04...15"2000-01....10...00...00....04...00...00.....4"2001-02....03...00...00....03...00...00.....2"2002-03....42...10...05....19...06...05...18"2003-04....22...03...00....13...03...00.....6"2004-05....17...00...00....08...00...00.....5"2005-06....10...01...01....05...01...01...13"2006-07....13...00...00....07...00...00.....4"2007-08....08...00...00....04...00...00.....4"2008-09....10...00...00....05...00...00.....5"2009-10....38...26...18....25...17...13...34"2010-11....17...01...00....11...01...00.....7"2011-12....01...00...00....01...00...00.....1" 2012-13....06...00...00....03...00...00.....3"Most/least days 1"52 1960-61 ... 00 1949-5042 2002-03 ... 01 2011-1238 2009-10 ... 02 1972-7335 1957-58 ... 03 1980-8135 1963-64 ... 03 1997-9832 1962-63 ... 03 2001-0231 1977-78 ... 04 1991-9229 1981-82 ... 05 1958-5928 1966-67 ... 06 1950-5128 1989-90 ... 06 1951-5228 1995-96 ... 06 2012-13..........................................days 6"26 2009-1020 1960-6115 1995-9612 1986-8711 1957-5811 1965-6611 1978-7910 1966-6710 1981-8210 2002-03days 10"17 2009-1011 1995-9610 1986-8706 1965-6606 1982-8305 1957-5805 1978-7905 2002-0304 1999-00Consecutive days 1"30 1960-6125 2009-1022 1989-9022 1999-0021 1960-61* two separate streaks..20 1962-6319 1978-7919 1981-8219 2002-0318 1965-66Consecutive days 6"17 2009-1012 1995-9611 1986-8710 1965-6607 1957-5807 1981-8206 1978-7906 1982-8306 2002-03Consecutive days 10"13 2009-1011 1995-9606 1965-6606 1982-8305 1957-5805 1978-7905 1986-8705 2002-0304 1999-00Maximum depth...34" 2009-1025" 1995-9623" 1982-8322" 1978-7918" 2002-0317" 1965-6617" 1986-8716" 1957-5815" 1999-0013" 1960-6113" 2005-0611" 1992-9310" 1959-6010" 1961-6210" 1966-67 ................................... 10" depths buy decade... 1950's...1 1960's...5 1970's...1 1980's...2 1990's...2 2000's...3 2009-10 is well a head for maximum depth...most 6" and 10" days...consecutive 6" and 10" days...1960-61 has the most 1" days and consecutive 1" days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I think there is going to be a very cold month with departure on order of -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 those stats of Uncle (thx Uncle!) show that the winter of 09/10 will never be beat at BWI wrt snowfall personally, I think the max depth of 34" recorded in 2/10 right after the 2nd bliz is a bit low but it's likely nobody got out to measure it before compaction started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Thanks Uncle...this is great stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I think there is going to be a very cold month with departure on order of -5. I may agree with this...my thinking has evolved over the past few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Neutral to weak niño with a North Pacific more ninoish look. Stay hopeful That Enso state would probably be the worst possible for us. Probably tons of miller Bs. Esp if PNA stayed neutral/neg I think our probability of a snowier than normal winter at less than 50%, probably more in the 30% range as I don't see a nino. Still the winter should be snowier than the last couple of winters. I'm still not very jazzed on snow....ENSO has warmed significantly lately, but not sure that will last...and the PDO region is still wretched....We know what we get in neutral/-pdo periods during a general Nina/Neutral period...A ridge over the Aleutians...a -PNA, and a warm winter....even if we were to get blocking, it benefits 40N and we are colder but still have a bad storm track as the cold anomaly is to our north...so I feel like I can't rule out a cold month, but it will probably mostly mean 0.06" QPF atrocities from our w/nw....maybe I am being myopic, but I don't really see how we back into a decent snow winter unless we thread the needle and get fluked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I'm still not very jazzed on snow....ENSO has warmed significantly lately, but not sure that will last...and the PDO region is still wretched....We know what we get in neutral/-pdo periods during a general Nina/Neutral period...A ridge over the Aleutians...a -PNA, and a warm winter....even if we were to get blocking, it benefits 40N and we are colder but still have a bad storm track as the cold anomaly is to our north...so I feel like I can't rule out a cold month, but it will probably mostly mean 0.06" QPF atrocities from our w/nw....maybe I am being myopic, but I don't really see how we back into a decent snow winter unless we thread the needle and get fluked... that seasonal track/boundary has only got to shift 75 miles south of its "typical" spot for things to change from a sloppy <1" and rain event to 3-4" moderate event topped by sleet or zr as long as we get some precip, a neutral Enso gives us equal chances of being 10" or 20" snowfall year based on Uncle's post above, so we'll need some luck (which is exactly what we need every year to get above average) actually, the last few years have me more concerned about getting some decent qpf to fall, never mind the storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I'm not on board for any KU events, but think we can have a decent winter. If 75-100% of climo is decent-- most should be happy with that following the past 2 winters. (which haven't really sucked down here) Those runners up into the southern WV area can be decent snow to ice events, (changing to rain in the coastals) 2-3 events of 2-4 than ice plus maybe 1 5-10 incher would make for a decent winter. Pack 2-3 of those in a 10 day stretch ala -NAO period and most would be decently happy. (with reasonable expectations) What will it take to make you happy? If my winter ends up like this event wise.. 7.5 all snow, 4 with ice on top, 3.5 clipper and 2 inch slush/ice with a couple other traces/dustings --17 inches or so is decent for me. I'd hope I can sneak a weekend trip to Snowshoe or something as well for a little bigger event. (That's not far off from what I had last year) There has been something magical about that I-64 cut off from confluence or whatever in the past 2-3 winters. (Big SW VA events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 that seasonal track/boundary has only got to shift 75 miles south of its "typical" spot for things to change from a sloppy <1" and rain event to 3-4" moderate event topped by sleet or zr as long as we get some precip, a neutral Enso gives us equal chances of being 10" or 20" snowfall year based on Uncle's post above, so we'll need some luck (which is exactly what we need every year to get above average) actually, the last few years have me more concerned about getting some decent qpf to fall, never mind the storm track Not all neutral's are the same...that would apply if current ENSO state is the only criteria you are using....I have made the case throughout this thread that the snowier neutrals aren't really applicable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Not all neutral's are the same...that would apply if current ENSO state is the only criteria you are using....I have made the case throughout this thread that the snowier neutrals aren't really applicable... I agree, just like all strong NINO's aren't the same but since ENSO is typically our biggest large scale factor and it's a little early to look at anything else, Uncle's neutral ENSO show a 50/50 shot (and maybe too early to look at ENSO for that matter, but this being all rhetorical, wtf) I guess what I'm saying is I ain't gunna' throw in the towel, neutral or otherwise, since we won't know where the main storm tracks set-up for another 2-3 more months and because BWI/Baltimore has never had 3-single digit snowfall winters in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I agree, just like all strong NINO's aren't the same but since ENSO is typically our biggest large scale factor and it's a little early to look at anything else, Uncle's neutral ENSO show a 50/50 shot (and maybe too early to look at ENSO for that matter, but this being all rhetorical, wtf) I guess what I'm saying is I ain't gunna' throw in the towel, neutral or otherwise, since we won't know where the main storm tracks set-up for another 2-3 more months and because BWI/Baltimore has never had 3-single digit snowfall winters in a row it is going to set up to our north and west...the question is whether we are cold and whether we can capitalize during some PNA spikes...but the prevalent storm track will be to our west (other than perhaps early and late season)...that is pretty much a lock imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Would be nice if some snow decided to stick to the streets this year. Nickled and dimed our way to almost 20" last year which is good but it was mostly conversational snow that painted a pretty picture for a minute. I recognize this was better than many so I'm not complaining but I'm thinking a bigger dump at least once this year would be preferable over the snizzle events but eh....I will appreciate all we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I agree, just like all strong NINO's aren't the same but since ENSO is typically our biggest large scale factor and it's a little early to look at anything else, Uncle's neutral ENSO show a 50/50 shot (and maybe too early to look at ENSO for that matter, but this being all rhetorical, wtf) I guess what I'm saying is I ain't gunna' throw in the towel, neutral or otherwise, since we won't know where the main storm tracks set-up for another 2-3 more months and because BWI/Baltimore has never had 3-single digit snowfall winters in a row it is going to set up to our north and west...the question is whether we are cold and whether we can capitalize during some PNA spikes...but the prevalent storm track will be to our west (other than perhaps early and late season)...that is pretty much a lock imo What was the DC total in 2004-05? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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