2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[mitchnick]

Have we ever had 4 years of a row of either La Nina or cold neutrals?  Aren't we in uncharted waters here a bit when it comes to analogs?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

technically, last year wasn't a NINA

[uncle W]

oni goes back to 1950...1999-2002 were four straight years with a - for DJF...

1999 -1.5

2000 -1.7

2001 -0.7

2002 -0.2

mei goes back to 1870...using the Dec/Jan index 1890-1896 had seven straight years with a negative value...1872-76 had five...1907-11 had five...1943-46, 1960-63, 1999-02 had four...using the JMA that goes back to 1870...1870-1876 had seven straight negatives...1907-11 had five...1943-47 had five...1960-63 had four...1999-02 had four...

[weathafella]

I know you did. You spent the entire winter telling us how great our winter was.

Ahhh.....I was young and innocent then......

Somehow in my head I equate the December 1960 storm with all DC winters after watching Del Shofner end up in A snow bank after catching a td pass from YA Tittle in heavy snow. Seriously. Well one thing you can see is that DC is now due after paying dearly for 4 years ago.

[WxUSAF]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

technically, last year wasn't a NINA

Hence my reference to "cold neutrals"  

[WxUSAF]

oni goes back to 1950...1999-2002 were four straight years with a - for DJF...

1999 -1.5

2000 -1.7

2001 -0.7

2002 -0.2

mei goes back to 1870...using the Dec/Jan index 1890-1896 had seven straight years with a negative value...1872-76 had five...1907-11 had five...1943-46, 1960-63, 1999-02 had four...using the JMA that goes back to 1870...1870-1876 had seven straight negatives...1907-11 had five...1943-47 had five...1960-63 had four...1999-02 had four...

Yeah, 98-01 or 99-02 is probably fairly similar in ENSO state at least.  01-02 is not an analog I think most people will be pleased with.  

[DDweatherman]

Hence my reference to "cold neutrals"

As some like to call it, "La Nada"

[mitchnick]

Hence my reference to "cold neutrals"

wew, I am going blind  

[Ji]

i cant wait for February.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd6.gif

[EastCoast NPZ]

i cant wait for February.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd6.gif

 

Unfortunately, the temp anomolies map will probably look just like this also.

[mitchnick]

i cant wait for February.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd6.gif

I can't wait until next week when that map looks completely different

[WinterWxLuvr]

I can't wait until next week when that map looks completely different

Or tomorrow.

[Eskimo Joe]

This guy says cold and snowy. I'll take his forecast:

 

http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2013-2014-winter-outlook/

The comment section is loltastic.

[Bob Chill]

I've been busy and haven't posted much lately. I have been looking at things from time to time. This still is one of the worst years to make an early guess in quite some time. Going slightly warmer and less snowy than climo is the only wag I think i could make and feel ok about. Even that isn't saying much. 

 

I've always been a believer of dominant patterns and oscillations evening themselves out over time (stating the obvious). Patterns oscillations are tricky though. There are just too many out there and complex interactions between them give the best forecasters and weather computers fits let alone armchair weenies trying to make sense of it. 

 

This summer was a big change in the NH compared to many recent ones. Especially the arctic. I personally think this is a signal of some sort that will carry over through the end of the year and into the next. I read the ice thread from time to time and iirc some are calling this year a "bump year". Not a reversal or anything but there was a massive shift in weather patterns this summer in the arctic basin compared to the last.....17?? The 17 year thing is my own observation based on a couple simple charts.

 

JJA this summer has been the first +NAO dominant summer since 1996.

 

 

This summer is also the biggest bump in arctic sea ice since 1996.

 

 

 

There some important reasons not to use 1996 as a perfect analog. 96-97 was enso neutral but on the heels of a weak/mod nina. Not a good comparison to the territory we're going in. PDO was basically neutral in 96-97. What the PDO does this winter isn't set in stone but expecting a magic pop positive is a low odds proposition. 

 

Mid-august plumes continue beating the neutral drum. Not much change there:

 

 

 

When you start adding up all tools we like to use for wags there really isn't a clean equation to use. Enso in particular. We don't have good analogs of periods like we're in now. Even if we did, I'm realizing that what happened in the 70's and before don't mean as much now. It's simply harder to snow here.

 

Ian made some good points a year or so ago about losing it on the margins. We get less early and late snow near the cities than we used to. That part is a temp thing.  We all got sucker punched last year by a single degree in temps. In 1965 it would have been a huge late snowstorm (IMO).

 

I think it's possible that we can expect what we saw this summer continue through the end of the year and into next. No big dominant heat ridges and seasonal temps. Periods of cool and warm mixed but nothing lasting a month or more like we've seen lately. 

 

I think half of December will be cold if not the whole month. I also think odds favor a modest snow in December as well. Part of this I'll explain later but part of my reasoning is simply things evening out. 

 

We may be pleasantly surprised this winter. Maybe no big juicy miller A's or anything but conducive periods for modest storms in each of DJF. Reaching climo on the season will be an uphill battle IMO. But it's only september and weather could care less about what I think.

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

nice post

I'll 2nd that even though I still remember mowing my lawn 1 year after the 96 blizzard, and then it got colder

[uncle W]

you guys need a January 13th-14th, 1982 storm/s without the plane crash...if the nao and enso don't cooperate maybe the pna will...TWT...

[Bob Chill]

I'll 2nd that even though I still remember mowing my lawn 1 year after the 96 blizzard, and then it got colder

 

LOL- I know it's kinda scary throwing around the 96-97 analog but I'm not really using it as a winter analog. Just a summer comparison. Yea, low heights around the pole and greenland are similar but it kinda ends there. We've been blessed this summer with the lw pattern of ridging way up into nw canada. This allowed easy relief in the GL-MA-NE because cold fronts were able to dive underneath the large area of low heights at high latitudes. 9 times out of 10 those low heights = a se ridge in some form or another.

 

There are some other basic similarities though. Enso state isn't far off. The pdo could relax this year too. Even though we are in the middle of a long term - phase, there are bump years there too. Maybe the PDO is neutral this winter. Who knows. A cooler version of 96-97 is a reasonable wag. I don't see any reason to expect a dominant ec ridge pattern through the first half of winter. Sure it could happen but I personally doubt it. 

 

The irony in early winter last year was an uber -AO was rendered useless by a terrible pac. It completely eliminated a delivery mechanism to get cold here for like 6 weeks. Do we get the same terrible pac and storm track again for 6 weeks this winter? I highly doubt it. That's another part of my reasoning for a decent chance at December performing in some fashion. 

 

We haven't gotten locked into any long duration pattern since March. I see no reason for that not to continue as we approach and move into winter. 

 

nice post

 

Thanks Matt. There's really not much for me to dig deep into. We all know what's on the table right now. It's not really all that complex but on the flip side what I'm seeing means that variability will be the theme unless something takes over. If the longwave pattern continues to flex and relax like it has this spring and summer we could score in different ways than we typically look for. Trailing waves on cold fronts with overrunning would be one way that i could see happening. Sure, things like that rarely produce more than 4-5" but I'm certainly not the least bit picky after the last 2 debacles. 

[mitchnick]

I posted this SSTA animation in the NE forum so I guess I should post it here

from what I can tell, it's updated each day they update the daily map

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html

[mitchnick]

I almost threw up

 

What happens when the GOA gets cold?  What will be the new 40N  justification for why we  will have a good winter here?

the same one as every year.....our bad luck has got to run out at some point

 

anyway, you weren't supposed to be looking at the N PAC, only enso  <insert blind as a bat emoticon here>  

[mattie g]

the same one as every year.....our bad luck has got to run out at some point

Our default is bad luck. 2016-2017 will break the bad luck streak.

[ORH_wxman]

The problem for DC is that we are in the type of regime that was similar to like the 1948-1957 period...lots of Ninas or neturals with no potent Ninos in there during the initial 10 years of a shift to -PDO regime (much like we have shifted recently in the present).

From what I recall, that period was pretty lousy for DC too. When you get a potent El Nino in the -PDO regime, it will be great...much like '09-'10 was (also '57-'58, '65-'66)...if you can built some neutral winters after a potent Nino in a decadal -PDO regime, then that would probably give some better results for non-Nino years like the early 60s.

[weathafella]

I almost threw up

What happens when the GOA gets cold? What will be the new 40N justification for why we will have a good winter here?

the same one as every year.....our bad luck has got to run out at some point

anyway, you weren't supposed to be looking at the N PAC, only enso

If the GOA gets cold before 10/1, we're all fukked. My entire premise is experimental with the GOA in September. It has worked but admittedly the sample size is weak.

[mitchnick]

if you believe the Hurricane correlation to winter, 96/97 seems to be off the table in light of the action up through 9/6/96

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/index.php

[mitchnick]

The problem for DC is that we are in the type of regime that was similar to like the 1948-1957 period...lots of Ninas or neturals with no potent Ninos in there during the initial 10 years of a shift to -PDO regime (much like we have shifted recently in the present).

From what I recall, that period was pretty lousy for DC too. When you get a potent El Nino in the -PDO regime, it will be great...much like '09-'10 was (also '57-'58, '65-'66)...if you can built some neutral winters after a potent Nino in a decadal -PDO regime, then that would probably give some better results for non-Nino years like the early 60s.

 if you're right and history repeats, this year will be close to average at BWI

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwisnow.txt

[Rjay]

I remain optomistic

I literally spit my drink out...awesome

[mitchnick]

I literally spit my drink out...awesome

what the he!! are we supposed to do in the MA? be realistic?????

I've lived long enough to know that's no fun

[Bob Chill]

I'm with u Mitch. I fully expect double what I got last year. It's going to be epic.

[mitchnick]

I'm with u Mitch. I fully expect double what I got last year. It's going to be epic.

or at least feel it     lol

[mitchnick]

What are we supposed to do without a southern stream? I am trying to figure out a way we can have a big winter and I can't. It requires us to produce during the core of winter. One way is to get a split flow and faux southern stream a la jan 2000. But that was a really anomalous situation. We saw that pattern last winter. It doesn't have to produce a snowstorm that back in and dumps 2 feet on RDU.

Do we have any other reasonable options? Some sick, otherworldly block and we thread some crazy sh-it?

I'll be happy with 10-12" IMBY.

as long as you're with the Capital Weather Gang, you'll never allow yourself to dream weenie dreams again

anonymity has its perks!!!

[uncle W]

July/Aug mei came in at -.614...That's weak la nina territory...oni came in at -0.4...next month could warm a notch or stay steady...weekly oni was -0.1...Some mei analogs of hope...

1898-99......54" in DCA

1903-04......20" in DCA

1908-09......36" in DCA

1912-13......9" in DCA

1921-22.....42.5" in DCA

1945-46......24.5" in DCA

1949-50......3" DCA...

1962-63......21.4" in DCA

1974-75.....12.8" in DCA...

six snowy winters 20" or more...

one in the teens...

two under 10"...

enso near same state in Jan...

1898-99

1921-22

1962-63...

la nina develops...

1903-04

1908-09

1949-50

1974-75

if enso warms to near 0.0...

1912-13

1945-46

I'm betting the mei will be close to what it is now in January making the top three analogs pretty good for DCA...

[Bob Chill]

What are we supposed to do without a southern stream? I am trying to figure out a way we can have a big winter and I can't. It requires us to produce during the core of winter. One way is to get a split flow and faux southern stream a la jan 2000. But that was a really anomalous situation. We saw that pattern last winter. It doesn't have to produce a snowstorm that back in and dumps 2 feet on RDU.

Do we have any other reasonable options? Some sick, otherworldly block and we thread some crazy sh-it?

I'll be happy with 10-12" IMBY.

I was just poking fun. 12" is 200% of last year in my yard. And that's what I honestly expect. And it will take 4+ events to get there.

A good block with a miller b'ish vort diving down could drop 4-6" area wide. A post frontal trailing wave could get us 3-5.

IMHO- a 6-10 event is totally off the table without a lucky strike with a perfect +pna -nao. No stj doesn't mean the gulf is closed. But this kind of event is an obvious fluke. It would surprise me if it happened or didn't happen. I won't make any calls like that until 8 hours after it stops snowing. LOL