2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

[HM]

On a positive note for snow-lovers, despite the lack of El Nino this winter (people forecasting this are more about hyping than being right), there will be 2 things going on that should bring some respectable winter at some point:

1. We will probably for a while at least (I'm not sure yet on how long or how impacting) have a poleward Aleutian High. Last year, we had a major problem with low level cold when the NAO went negative. With this feature possibly more robust than last winter, when we get actual blocking we will probably get actual cold!

2. There will no doubt be periods of STJ when the MJO is active, just like last year. So there is always a chance it will time with one of the blockier periods mentioned above.

Right now, there is nothing to suggest an 02-03 or 01-02 is coming. Our biggest problem is a 96-97 (talking only DJF) type of year but an 81-82 is very doable.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I still look forward to winter every year even when the potential is crap....it's my favorite season and always will be

 

yep, it's - at least for now - the only season you don't have to worry about hitting *&^%ing 90F here.

[mattie g]

Winter sucks.  Especially around here.

[aldie 22]

Winter sucks. Especially around here.

I'm quite fond of it...my expectations are grounded in what normally happens not the abnormal stuff like 09-10....doesn't mean I don't get disappointed or ***** but I've lived here my whole life...I know what to expect

[WxUSAF]

Right now, there is nothing to suggest an 02-03 or 01-02 is coming. Our biggest problem is a 96-97 (talking only DJF) type of year but an 81-82 is very doable.

Got it.  HM going 09-10 and 95-96 as major analogs. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

yep, it's - at least for now - the only season you don't have to worry about hitting *&^%ing 90F here.

You'd better enjoy what you have.  We've only topped 90 14 times this year if I'm not mistaken.

 

Not bad at all.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Got it.  HM going 09-10 and 95-96 as major analogs. 

That's how I read it too!

[HM]

 

Got it.  HM going 09-10 and 95-96 as major analogs.

 

lol

But yeah, do yourself a favor and check out the streamfunction anomalies last winter over 10-15 day periods. There really never was a time when the North Pacific had an appreciable -WPO/Aleutian High long-term. A lot of the "cold shots" really were pathetic outside of that clipper madness time frame (and even that was whatever).

[WinterWxLuvr]

Winter sucks.  Especially around here.

I hope, especially for your sake, that it never tops freezing from Dec through Feb, that the sun isn't seen for 90 straight days, and that snow and ice are on every outdoor surface every day the entire time.

 

[WxUSAF]

 

 

lol

But yeah, do yourself a favor and check out the streamfunction anomalies last winter over 10-15 day periods. There really never was a time when the North Pacific had an appreciable -WPO/Aleutian High long-term. A lot of the "cold shots" really were pathetic outside of that clipper madness time frame (and even that was whatever).

Oh I remember.  We had very solid blocking and our temps were ~5 below normal.  And a wave would come through and still warm things up.  It was pretty sorry all in all.

[Deck Pic]

On a positive note for snow-lovers, despite the lack of El Nino this winter (people forecasting this are more about hyping than being right), there will be 2 things going on that should bring some respectable winter at some point:

1. We will probably for a while at least (I'm not sure yet on how long or how impacting) have a poleward Aleutian High. Last year, we had a major problem with low level cold when the NAO went negative. With this feature possibly more robust than last winter, when we get actual blocking we will probably get actual cold!

2. There will no doubt be periods of STJ when the MJO is active, just like last year. So there is always a chance it will time with one of the blockier periods mentioned above.

Right now, there is nothing to suggest an 02-03 or 01-02 is coming. Our biggest problem is a 96-97 (talking only DJF) type of year but an 81-82 is very doable.

 

That is one of the best I-95 winters of the last 60 years...not far behind 95-96/60-61/02-03/57-58...And it is the single most underrated DC winter on record...january based on 81-2010 norms was a -8....most of the region got 25"+....I got 30" in a close in burb, even with my biggest storm, only 7-8"....

 

Since ONI was revised, the ENSO progression  isn't as hostile as I thought....We had borderline Nina conditions for a lot of 1981....of course the PDO was positive every single month of that year....I wouldn't particularly lean toward it as an analog, though I haven't looked at much yet...But it is nice to hear you throw it out there as an option versus others...we know everyone loves to go cold in a neutral winter..we saw it in 01-02....so I usually take cold outlooks with a grain of salt....It makes me a little nervous that the last full blown Nina period was 73-76...we were essentially in the middle of a warm/+PDO regime that lasted 7 years...I'd still like to see us go as cold as possible in the ENSO regions to get a colder winter...I don't see dead-on neutral or neutral+ being very good here in the mid-ATL...in fact I could see it being mostly a disaster with lots of warm air and wretched storm tracks...

[mattie g]

I hope, especially for your sake, that it never tops freezing from Dec through Feb, that the sun isn't seen for 90 straight days, and that snow and ice are on every outdoor surface every day the entire time.

 

 

My in-laws live in Hilton Head.  See ya!

 

[ORH_wxman]

That is one of the best I-95 winters of the last 60 years...not far behind 95-96/60-61/02-03/57-58...And it is the single most underrated DC winter on record...january based on 81-2010 norms was a -8....most of the region got 25"+....I got 30" in a close in burb, even with my biggest storm, only 7-8"....

 

Since ONI was revised, the ENSO progression  isn't as hostile as I thought....We had borderline Nina conditions for a lot of 1981....of course the PDO was positive every single month of that year....I wouldn't particularly lean toward it as an analog, though I haven't looked at much yet...But it is nice to hear you throw it out there as an option versus others...we know everyone loves to go cold in a neutral winter..we saw it in 01-02....so I usually take cold outlooks with a grain of salt....It makes me a little nervous that the last full blown Nina period was 73-76...we were essentially in the middle of a warm/+PDO regime that lasted 7 years...I'd still like to see us go as cold as possible in the ENSO regions to get a colder winter...I don't see dead-on neutral or neutral+ being very good here in the mid-ATL...in fact I could see it being mostly a disaster with lots of warm air and wretched storm tracks...

 

 

The one thing that '81-'82 showed us is how to get a great pattern for Mid-Atlantic I-95 despite a -PNA. I think the PNA was pretty solidly negative all winter. So in terms of ENSO, if we are stuck with a -PNA as a consequence, then something like '81-'82 would still be possible if we got the EPO and NAO blocking. Its obviously pretty rare since a -PNA is usually bad for the M.A....but that is how it would be successful.

 

That said, you generally still want at least a transient +PNA spike to get a snow event...which is what happened in the Air Florida snowstorm.

[HM]

 

That is one of the best I-95 winters of the last 60 years...not far behind 95-96/60-61/02-03/57-58...And it is the single most underrated DC winter on record...january based on 81-2010 norms was a -8....most of the region got 25"+....I got 30" in a close in burb, even with my biggest storm, only 7-8"....

 

Since ONI was revised, the ENSO progression  isn't as hostile as I thought....We had borderline Nina conditions for a lot of 1981....of course the PDO was positive every single month of that year....I wouldn't particularly lean toward it as an analog, though I haven't looked at much yet...But it is nice to hear you throw it out there as an option versus others...we know everyone loves to go cold in a neutral winter..we saw it in 01-02....so I usually take cold outlooks with a grain of salt....It makes me a little nervous that the last full blown Nina period was 73-76...we were essentially in the middle of a warm/+PDO regime that lasted 7 years...I'd still like to see us go as cold as possible in the ENSO regions to get a colder winter...I don't see dead-on neutral or neutral+ being very good here in the mid-ATL...in fact I could see it being mostly a disaster with lots of warm air and wretched storm tracks...

 

Well, here's the thing about the PDO: I agree that it had a long-term effect during that time that we just aren't going to have on our side this year (and surrounding years). But, the actual 500mb anomaly pattern for 81-82 didn't reflect the classic +PDO look in a sense. It had a classic Aleutian High / -WPO and -NAO which is a notorious combination (quite the odd-ball winter). In all actuality, the PDO seemed ineffective for DJF and the raw numbers do reflect its lesser influence over other years in that decade (80-81 for example had a classic Aleutian Low and +PDO look despite the raw numbers in the PDO being weaker as well).

Why was the PDO ineffective for that winter only? I can tell you that the tropical forcing and GLAAM were both certainly supportive but it doesn't answer the question, really (just creates more questions...why did they do what they did?). The forcing provided uplift over Indonesia/west Pac and S. America with subsidence over the IO/African sector. The IO was much more active in other years in the 80s, esp. 80-81. The GLAAM was noticeably more negative in the autumn of 81' which lasted into the winter, bringing on the unusual N PAC pattern.

You can't blame El Chichon (happened in the spring). There was a "Canadian Warming" that year (the north pacific had low anomalies during Nov-Dec in troposphere, as you would expect with a +PDO regime (similar to last winter, although technically our CW wasn't as strong for that description) which caused that warming in the lower-strat. These changes brought on the unusual blocking in January as the Aleutian High in the strat downwelled. The active solar did its best to slow down the disturbance but the -QBO was enough to win the battle (this warming would have happened sooner if the sun was weak like 09-10).

[Deck Pic]

The one thing that '81-'82 showed us is how to get a great pattern for Mid-Atlantic I-95 despite a -PNA. I think the PNA was pretty solidly negative all winter. So in terms of ENSO, if we are stuck with a -PNA as a consequence, then something like '81-'82 would still be possible if we got the EPO and NAO blocking. Its obviously pretty rare since a -PNA is usually bad for the M.A....but that is how it would be successful.

 

That said, you generally still want at least a transient +PNA spike to get a snow event...which is what happened in the Air Florida snowstorm.

 

Yes..huge negative anomaly in the PNA region...But I think we had a southern stream and not the numerous 1016 lows that get washed out like feathery amoebas like we have had the past 2 winters

 

 

Well, here's the thing about the PDO: I agree that it had a long-term effect during that time that we just aren't going to have on our side this year (and surrounding years). But, the actual 500mb anomaly pattern for 81-82 didn't reflect the classic +PDO look in a sense. It had a classic Aleutian High / -WPO and -NAO which is a notorious combination (quite the odd-ball winter). In all actuality, the PDO seemed ineffective for DJF and the raw numbers do reflect its lesser influence over other years in that decade (80-81 for example had a classic Aleutian Low and +PDO look despite the raw numbers in the PDO being weaker as well).

Why was the PDO ineffective for that winter only? I can tell you that the tropical forcing and GLAAM were both certainly supportive but it doesn't answer the question, really (just creates more questions...why did they do what they did?). The forcing provided uplift over Indonesia/west Pac and S. America with subsidence over the IO/African sector. The IO was much more active in other years in the 80s, esp. 80-81. The GLAAM was noticeably more negative in the autumn of 81' which lasted into the winter, bringing on the unusual N PAC pattern.

You can't blame El Chichon (happened in the spring). There was a "Canadian Warming" that year (the north pacific had low anomalies during Nov-Dec in troposphere, as you would expect with a +PDO regime (similar to last winter, although technically our CW wasn't as strong for that description) which caused that warming in the lower-strat. These changes brought on the unusual blocking in January as the Aleutian High in the strat downwelled. The active solar did its best to slow down the disturbance but the -QBO was enough to win the battle (this warming would have happened sooner if the sun was weak like 09-10).

 

Thanks..Much of this is over my head, but I like the idea that ENSO/PDO won't necessarily call all the shots.....

[HM]

 

Thanks..Much of this is over my head, but I like the idea that ENSO/PDO won't necessarily call all the shots.....

 

Sorry, that was not intended. Here's another way to put it: the factors that affect the stratosphere/AO during the autumn were favoring a weakened vortex. There was an advancement of waves and snow cover (e.g. the SAI of Cohen was slightly above normal, as 1 factor) during the autumn that favored the polar vortex to become disturbed. The timing of such a disturbance was favored to be early by most factors except for the "active sun." That only managed to slow down the process somewhat really but not by much. The northern annular mode (NAM) state basically was weak/warm mid-dec through early feb. This trumped everything else and produced a general circulation that was not like the decadal trends of the time.

You are right that 81-82 is underrated in that regard. I don't think it is an analog but it is a great example of how things can go with these types of neutral winters.

[Deck Pic]

 

 

Sorry, that was not intended. Here's another way to put it: the factors that affect the stratosphere/AO during the autumn were favoring a weakened vortex. There was an advancement of waves and snow cover (e.g. the SAI of Cohen was slightly above normal, as 1 factor) during the autumn that favored the polar vortex to become disturbed. The timing of such a disturbance was favored to be early by most factors except for the "active sun." That only managed to slow down the process somewhat really but not by much. The northern annular mode (NAM) state basically was weak/warm mid-dec through early feb. This trumped everything else and produced a general circulation that was not like the decadal trends of the time.

You are right that 81-82 is underrated in that regard. I don't think it is an analog but it is a great example of how things can go with these types of neutral winters.

 

Thanks for the explanation

 

A few weeks back I had been looking at 45-46....I need to do more research but I think it is a potential analog..frontloaded winter - we had a cold december with a KU....and JAN/FEB were warm, but all of I-95 went above climo snow...I know the seasonal composite looks bad in the PAC with the vortices over western Canada and Alaska...but it wasn't a bad winter...we still managed temporary good patterns in Jan/FEB..It was better than a 89-90 type scenario...I will  take another look at this one this fall

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks for the explanation

 

A few weeks back I had been looking at 45-46....I need to do more research but I think it is a potential analog..frontloaded winter - we had a cold december with a KU....and JAN/FEB were warm, but all of I-95 went above climo snow...I know the seasonal composite looks bad in the PAC with the vortices over western Canada and Alaska...but it wasn't a bad winter...we still managed temporary good patterns in Jan/FEB..It was better than a 89-90 type scenario...I will  take another look at this one this fall

 

 

216.200.64.163.234.12.39.33.png

 

 

December 1945 was absolutely epic in the northeast. A top 5 snowy December and a top 15 cold December for many.

[Deck Pic]

December 1945 was absolutely epic in the northeast. A top 5 snowy December and a top 15 cold December for many.

 

I'd probably go for at least one cold month if we get quasi-nina/neg neutral....not necessarily because of any analog but they are pretty common in the general ENSO state/progression we are in....I think if we got close to Nina we'd do better than say 96-97 in terms of cold...I think HM agrees....i dont think that winter really had much of a shot for the coastal plain in a neutral state....The burbs and interior did ok. even though it was hot....I know you got the big Cantore storm and the April fools....I will get worried if the Nino regions are dead and rotting in the 4th winter of a cold cycle.....we are seeing another warming of 3.4 after it just got pretty cold...I'm not sure I really see that as any sort of advantage....I'd probably just forecast more of the same for DC....0.3" snow events, sharp snow/cold gradients, moisture starved clippers and OV lows....snow to rain as the predominant wetter storm track....1012 lows in the south that resemble a 350lb asthmatic kid trying to climb a hill

[ORH_wxman]

I'd probably go for at least one cold month if we get quasi-nina/neg neutral....not necessarily because of any analog but they are pretty common in the general ENSO state/progression we are in....I think if we got close to Nina we'd do better than say 96-97 in terms of cold...I think HM agrees....i dont think that winter really had much of a shot for the coastal plain in a neutral state....The burbs and interior did ok. even though it was hot....I know you got the big Cantore storm and the April fools....I will get worried if the Nino regions are dead and rotting in the 4th winter of a cold cycle.....we are seeing another warming of 3.4 after it just got pretty cold...I'm not sure I really see that as any sort of advantage....I'd probably just forecast more of the same for DC....0.3" snow events, sharp snow/cold gradients, moisture starved clippers and OV lows....snow to rain as the predominant wetter storm track....1012 lows in the south that resemble a 350lb asthmatic kid trying to climb a hill

 

 

We came close to great cold in January 1997...but it stayed just slightly to the west in that pattern in the OH Valley/Lakes/Midwest/Plains. We had some awful storm tracks in Jan '97. The overall longwave pattern looked it should have been better for the northeast/M.A.

 

Without a southern stream or quasi-southern stream (ala split flow out west), we'll see a lot of putrid looking low pressure systems and probably some ugly tracks. Without good gulf connection, you get those moisture starved systems. '96-'97 had a lot of them. Particularly in January ad February.

[PhineasC]

I'd probably go for at least one cold month if we get quasi-nina/neg neutral....not necessarily because of any analog but they are pretty common in the general ENSO state/progression we are in....I think if we got close to Nina we'd do better than say 96-97 in terms of cold...I think HM agrees....i dont think that winter really had much of a shot for the coastal plain in a neutral state....The burbs and interior did ok. even though it was hot....I know you got the big Cantore storm and the April fools....I will get worried if the Nino regions are dead and rotting in the 4th winter of a cold cycle.....we are seeing another warming of 3.4 after it just got pretty cold...I'm not sure I really see that as any sort of advantage....I'd probably just forecast more of the same for DC....0.3" snow events, sharp snow/cold gradients, moisture starved clippers and OV lows....snow to rain as the predominant wetter storm track....1012 lows in the south that resemble a 350lb asthmatic kid trying to climb a hill

You forgot to mention the "cold high pressures" that fold like a cheap tent and take off as soon as the wimpiest of low pressure areas nudges them a little.

[Ji]

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

[EastCoast NPZ]

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

 

That would be perfect.  BN for Sep and the winter months and normal for the best weather month of the year, October.  If only that model could be trusted.

[mattie g]

That would be perfect.  BN for Sep and the winter months and normal for the best weather month of the year, October.  If only that model could be trusted.

 

Yup...we all know it's not going to be correct.  And even if it were, I-95 and west would probably get 15-20 events of <0.5" and end winter with a grand total of 6-10".

[aldie 22]

The crawl on ESPN just said the farmers almanac predicts a massive blizzard in the NE February 2nd...Super Bowl in trouble

[mitchnick]

Even though it will never turn out like this, sometimes just looking at maps is fun. This is the 200mb map mean for 2/14 from today's CFS2. Can't ask for much more for a monthly mean: 1) pretty dome of HP over Greenland, 2) nice trough in the east, 3) nice ridge over the west coast, 4) Low NE of Hawaii for some tropical moisture. It will all change down the road, probably beginning tomorrow (so study it now because I hot linked it,) but still we can dream.

[EastCoast NPZ]

The crawl on ESPN just said the farmers almanac predicts a massive blizzard in the NE February 2nd...Super Bowl in trouble

 

That would be the single greatest (non-Cowboys participating) Super Bowl in HISTORY.  Knowing the NFL, however, they'd probably postpone the game.  Idiots.

[mitchnick]

example of why ENSO forecasts are useless at this point; hence, far from writing this winter off yet

last year's forecasts from August of all models:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/201208/SST_table.html

actual numbers were way colder:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

compare the forecasts from 8/2009, too cold that year

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/200908/SST_table.html

[Deck Pic]

example of why ENSO forecasts are useless at this point; hence, far from writing this winter off yet

last year's forecasts from August of all models:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/201208/SST_table.html

actual numbers were way colder:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

compare the forecasts from 8/2009, too cold that year

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/200908/SST_table.html

We aren't getting an El Niño. Sorry dude

[mitchnick]

We aren't getting an El Niño. Sorry dude

based on What HM said, Nina would be about as productive

I just want a weak something!