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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.


Bob Chill

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Dt going weak niño

We'll see about that. Mid-July plumes don't show anything of the sort unless you hug an outlier. Statistical average is very weak nina / cold neutral throughout and dynamical average is basically even steven give or take a few tenth's one way or another.

PDO will be more of a player this year than enso IMO. That and whatever persistent NH LW pattern decides to set up for December. I personally think this winter will be more front loaded than last (mostly in the temp department. who knows about snow).

I've been doing some digging lately and have found some interesting things but I haven't organized anything to post yet. One cookie of info is that the persistent pattern at high latitudes for the last 3 months is quite similar to 1996. This is significant in some respects and notsomuch in others though.

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Start filling the sandbags in Fargo.

lol- I was serious in some ways but not really. Still, it's hard to ignore what's going on in the arctic this summer. Very persistent pattern similar to 96 and the only similar pattern since 96.

 

These height anoms are close in some important ways. 81-10 climo kinda screws the 2013 look because heights in general are higher around the globe now than 20 years ago. But I think this comparison and the current state of enso is something that shouldn't be ignored at the very least. This is totally contrary to my thinking that Dec 2013 will be aob normal but I have different reasons for that. I'm just getting warmed up for the fall...lol

 

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lol- I was serious in some ways but not really. Still, it's hard to ignore what's going on in the arctic this summer. Very persistent pattern similar to 96 and the only similar pattern since 96.

 

These height anoms are close in some important ways. 81-10 climo kinda screws the 2013 look because heights in general are higher around the globe now than 20 years ago. But I think this comparison and the current state of enso is something that shouldn't be ignored at the very least. This is totally contrary to my thinking that Dec 2013 will be aob normal but I have different reasons for that. I'm just getting warmed up for the fall...lol

 

attachicon.gif96-13 summer h5 comparison.JPG

 

eventually, we have to get a winter that goes against everything and ends up snowy in our parts...eventually

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eventually, we have to get a winter that goes against everything and ends up snowy in our parts...eventually

 

I think that's why this year will probably have some bad long range calls (or calls that are right for the wrong reasons). Especially the early ones. There is no dominant signal. I suppose you could say the PDO will assert itself the most over other larger scale influences but even then.

 

Expecting a big snow year goes against all the early signs. That's a fair call. Which months are cold/warm is more of a dartboard than usual. 

 

I'm not making any early calls this season. I'll end up changing my mind too much as we approach late November. We've basically had 2 non-existent snow winters in a row and even the one before it kinda stunk too. Things have a way of evening out regardless of everything else. I would love to see the low snow calls go up in flames during a 2 week lucky stretch in December. It can happen. 

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I think that's why this year will probably have some bad long range calls (or calls that are right for the wrong reasons). Especially the early ones. There is no dominant signal. I suppose you could say the PDO will assert itself the most over other larger scale influences but even then.

 

Expecting a big snow year goes against all the early signs. That's a fair call. Which months are cold/warm is more of a dartboard than usual. 

 

I'm not making any early calls this season. I'll end up changing my mind too much as we approach late November. We've basically had 2 non-existent snow winters in a row and even the one before it kinda stunk too. Things have a way of evening out regardless of everything else. I would love to see the low snow calls go up in flames during a 2 week lucky stretch in December. It can happen. 

 

I'm feeling it this year....but I feel it every year so I've got to be right at some point

as for forecasting, in the last 3 or 4 years I've lost any faith I had in mets and doctors so I don't really care who forecasts what

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I think that's why this year will probably have some bad long range calls (or calls that are right for the wrong reasons). Especially the early ones. There is no dominant signal. I suppose you could say the PDO will assert itself the most over other larger scale influences but even then.

 

Expecting a big snow year goes against all the early signs. That's a fair call. Which months are cold/warm is more of a dartboard than usual. 

 

I'm not making any early calls this season. I'll end up changing my mind too much as we approach late November. We've basically had 2 non-existent snow winters in a row and even the one before it kinda stunk too. Things have a way of evening out regardless of everything else. I would love to see the low snow calls go up in flames during a 2 week lucky stretch in December. It can happen. 

 

 

I agree with this which is why I like seeing the enso regions cooling...that correlates better with a cold month...usually december,..I still think a dead-on neutral will be a disaster...and while it "can" happen, I think we all knowin a few months we will spend sleepless nights chasing 0.75" storms on the NAM that give us 0.07" QPF

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Seems like it may be tough for a weak Nino. Overall look to the PAC, Euro Sip and IRI dynamical/stat models seem to argue neutral. The NPAC is interesting right now, but that can cool off too with some recurving TCs.

 

 

we obviously aren't getting a nino...it has been obvious for a couple months now...

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fwiw, QBO-wise, 1997 and 2008 looks like a good match with this year so far

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

probably a few more years well before them too but nothing particularly good stands out though one could argue a QBO change to East-based in DEC this year would make 2002 reasonably close too

I think most of us would run with a 02-03 winter

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I think most of us would run with a 02-03 winter

 

 

The chance of an '02-'03 winter is about as likely as DCA matching 1/19/94 for temps.

 

Well maybe not that bad, but you get the idea. '02-'03 had a classic phased +PNA/-EPO and a robust STJ to boot. That pattern was epic. As hard as it is to believe, DCA probably got screwed in January that year too...it could have been better and on par with '09-'10 for snow. The pattern was so favorable for solid chunks of that winter.

 

The Pacific will need a monster fluke to perform like it did that winter. I think you want to root for what zwyts is rooting for...a colder profile in ENSO and hope you get one of those patterns that delievers epic cold to the north, but then dives SE in a good PNA or NAO pattern and then try and match a shortwave into it for one good storm...ala 1/26/11, 1/25/00, or 2/19/72.

 

There's a couple examples from the 1980s and 1990s in there too during negative ENSO..but I know Matt hates it when I use analogs from an overall +PDO regime...and there's some merit to that in the stats. Its hard to argue with them since I'm a stat guy too...though sample size makes me uneasy. But zwyts is convinced that it needs to be +PDO regime to match well for unorthadox ENSO episodes (meaning non-Ninos)...and until the seasons buck the trend, it really cannot be proven wrong in any convincing sense. The numbers are what they are. Say what you want about "it only takes one fluke storm"....but they usually happen in a Nina. Not a neutral -PDO.

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