Deck Pic Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 3.4 is getting really cold...imo that is good for us given we don't have a Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Dt going weak niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 Dt going weak niño We'll see about that. Mid-July plumes don't show anything of the sort unless you hug an outlier. Statistical average is very weak nina / cold neutral throughout and dynamical average is basically even steven give or take a few tenth's one way or another. PDO will be more of a player this year than enso IMO. That and whatever persistent NH LW pattern decides to set up for December. I personally think this winter will be more front loaded than last (mostly in the temp department. who knows about snow). I've been doing some digging lately and have found some interesting things but I haven't organized anything to post yet. One cookie of info is that the persistent pattern at high latitudes for the last 3 months is quite similar to 1996. This is significant in some respects and notsomuch in others though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I'll take a cool/cold December and early January, then a cold spell in mid-February, with the chance of small snows thrown in for good measure. Outside of that, give me some extended period of sunny 50F days and I'll be happy. Too much to ask, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 1995-96 is my main analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 1995-96 is my main analog I'm going with 96-97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 1995-96 is my main analog Mine is 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 1995-96 is my main analog Mine is 2009-2010. what you people do to JI is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 what you people do to JI is sick Ji wouldn't be happy if he lived in the UP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I'm going with 96-97 Start filling the sandbags in Fargo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 what you people do to JI is sick What "WE" do is sick. And stupid. Grown adults caring about snow so much that we lose sleep over it. LOTS of sleep over it. What a bunch of tards in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 Start filling the sandbags in Fargo. lol- I was serious in some ways but not really. Still, it's hard to ignore what's going on in the arctic this summer. Very persistent pattern similar to 96 and the only similar pattern since 96. These height anoms are close in some important ways. 81-10 climo kinda screws the 2013 look because heights in general are higher around the globe now than 20 years ago. But I think this comparison and the current state of enso is something that shouldn't be ignored at the very least. This is totally contrary to my thinking that Dec 2013 will be aob normal but I have different reasons for that. I'm just getting warmed up for the fall...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 lol- I was serious in some ways but not really. Still, it's hard to ignore what's going on in the arctic this summer. Very persistent pattern similar to 96 and the only similar pattern since 96. These height anoms are close in some important ways. 81-10 climo kinda screws the 2013 look because heights in general are higher around the globe now than 20 years ago. But I think this comparison and the current state of enso is something that shouldn't be ignored at the very least. This is totally contrary to my thinking that Dec 2013 will be aob normal but I have different reasons for that. I'm just getting warmed up for the fall...lol 96-13 summer h5 comparison.JPG eventually, we have to get a winter that goes against everything and ends up snowy in our parts...eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 What "WE" do is sick. And stupid. Grown adults caring about snow so much that we lose sleep over it. LOTS of sleep over it. What a bunch of tards in here. nah, this hobby is the least of my problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 eventually, we have to get a winter that goes against everything and ends up snowy in our parts...eventually I think that's why this year will probably have some bad long range calls (or calls that are right for the wrong reasons). Especially the early ones. There is no dominant signal. I suppose you could say the PDO will assert itself the most over other larger scale influences but even then. Expecting a big snow year goes against all the early signs. That's a fair call. Which months are cold/warm is more of a dartboard than usual. I'm not making any early calls this season. I'll end up changing my mind too much as we approach late November. We've basically had 2 non-existent snow winters in a row and even the one before it kinda stunk too. Things have a way of evening out regardless of everything else. I would love to see the low snow calls go up in flames during a 2 week lucky stretch in December. It can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 eventually, we have to get a winter that goes against everything and ends up snowy in our parts...eventually Unfortunately at your advanced age, you will probably not be around to see it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I think that's why this year will probably have some bad long range calls (or calls that are right for the wrong reasons). Especially the early ones. There is no dominant signal. I suppose you could say the PDO will assert itself the most over other larger scale influences but even then. Expecting a big snow year goes against all the early signs. That's a fair call. Which months are cold/warm is more of a dartboard than usual. I'm not making any early calls this season. I'll end up changing my mind too much as we approach late November. We've basically had 2 non-existent snow winters in a row and even the one before it kinda stunk too. Things have a way of evening out regardless of everything else. I would love to see the low snow calls go up in flames during a 2 week lucky stretch in December. It can happen. I'm feeling it this year....but I feel it every year so I've got to be right at some point as for forecasting, in the last 3 or 4 years I've lost any faith I had in mets and doctors so I don't really care who forecasts what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Unfortunately at your advanced age, you will probably not be around to see it . sorry, as a baby boomer, that condition is now referred to kindly as "experienced"......oh, what people will tell you to get your money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 sorry, as a baby boomer, that condition is now referred to kindly as "experienced"......oh, what people will tell you to get your money! I know one thing you are not experienced in, but we will leave that for an OT thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Seems like it may be tough for a weak Nino. Overall look to the PAC, Euro Sip and IRI dynamical/stat models seem to argue neutral. The NPAC is interesting right now, but that can cool off too with some recurving TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I think that's why this year will probably have some bad long range calls (or calls that are right for the wrong reasons). Especially the early ones. There is no dominant signal. I suppose you could say the PDO will assert itself the most over other larger scale influences but even then. Expecting a big snow year goes against all the early signs. That's a fair call. Which months are cold/warm is more of a dartboard than usual. I'm not making any early calls this season. I'll end up changing my mind too much as we approach late November. We've basically had 2 non-existent snow winters in a row and even the one before it kinda stunk too. Things have a way of evening out regardless of everything else. I would love to see the low snow calls go up in flames during a 2 week lucky stretch in December. It can happen. I agree with this which is why I like seeing the enso regions cooling...that correlates better with a cold month...usually december,..I still think a dead-on neutral will be a disaster...and while it "can" happen, I think we all knowin a few months we will spend sleepless nights chasing 0.75" storms on the NAM that give us 0.07" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Seems like it may be tough for a weak Nino. Overall look to the PAC, Euro Sip and IRI dynamical/stat models seem to argue neutral. The NPAC is interesting right now, but that can cool off too with some recurving TCs. we obviously aren't getting a nino...it has been obvious for a couple months now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 we obviously aren't getting a nino...it has been obvious for a couple months now... I know, I was responding to JI's post quoting DT. That model in particular has been giddy about warming region 3 and 3.4 since last year to no avail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I know, I was responding to JI's post quoting DT. That model in particular has been giddy about warming region 3 and 3.4 since last year to no avail. DT is wrong as you know...3.4 looks like the north pole right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 DT is wrong as you know...3.4 looks like the north pole right now actually, that map suggests the north pole might be warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 fwiw, QBO-wise, 1997 and 2008 looks like a good match with this year so far http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data probably a few more years well before them too but nothing particularly good stands out though one could argue a QBO change to East-based in DEC this year would make 2002 reasonably close too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I just hope I see a snowstorm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 fwiw, QBO-wise, 1997 and 2008 looks like a good match with this year so far http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data probably a few more years well before them too but nothing particularly good stands out though one could argue a QBO change to East-based in DEC this year would make 2002 reasonably close too I think most of us would run with a 02-03 winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I think most of us would run with a 02-03 winter The chance of an '02-'03 winter is about as likely as DCA matching 1/19/94 for temps. Well maybe not that bad, but you get the idea. '02-'03 had a classic phased +PNA/-EPO and a robust STJ to boot. That pattern was epic. As hard as it is to believe, DCA probably got screwed in January that year too...it could have been better and on par with '09-'10 for snow. The pattern was so favorable for solid chunks of that winter. The Pacific will need a monster fluke to perform like it did that winter. I think you want to root for what zwyts is rooting for...a colder profile in ENSO and hope you get one of those patterns that delievers epic cold to the north, but then dives SE in a good PNA or NAO pattern and then try and match a shortwave into it for one good storm...ala 1/26/11, 1/25/00, or 2/19/72. There's a couple examples from the 1980s and 1990s in there too during negative ENSO..but I know Matt hates it when I use analogs from an overall +PDO regime...and there's some merit to that in the stats. Its hard to argue with them since I'm a stat guy too...though sample size makes me uneasy. But zwyts is convinced that it needs to be +PDO regime to match well for unorthadox ENSO episodes (meaning non-Ninos)...and until the seasons buck the trend, it really cannot be proven wrong in any convincing sense. The numbers are what they are. Say what you want about "it only takes one fluke storm"....but they usually happen in a Nina. Not a neutral -PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I still look forward to winter every year even when the potential is crap....it's my favorite season and always will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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