mattie g Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1376366715.209431.jpg Jb on board "Big snow winter up and down the 95 corridor. Follow us at WeatherBELL to get the latest!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 "Big snow winter up and down the 95 corridor. Follow us at WeatherBELL to get the latest!" Lol. Can't wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 scripps...lol..that model is a nino addict Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 scripps...lol..that model is a nino addict GOA looks good but this still has a Nina Look http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.8.12.2013.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 GOA looks good but this still has a Nina Look http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.8.12.2013.gif problem is there is no cold water anywhere in the NPAC...that is still a marked -PDO look... this is an extreme example but we want something like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 There really is only one SNO...imposters should be banned Because you must KNO...the winter of 2013-2014 will be: 1. Above normal temps (+1-2) 2. Below normal snowfall (10in DCA, 15in BWI, 18in IAD) 3. Precip normal to slightly above (rain, slop mixture) 4. Best periods for SNO (Dec 24/25, Jan 24/25, Feb 3/4) 5. If you are EAST of the beltway...plan on driving to Deep Creek to see SNO My guess the powers that be will delete this post in...5,4,3,2,1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 There really is only one SNO...imposters should be banned Because you must KNO...the winter of 2013-2014 will be: 1. Above normal temps (+1-2) 2. Below normal snowfall (10in DCA, 15in BWI, 18in IAD) 3. Precip normal to slightly above (rain, slop mixture) 4. Best periods for SNO (Dec 24/25, Jan 24/25, Feb 3/4) 5. If you are EAST of the beltway...plan on driving to Deep Creek to see SNO My guess the powers that be will delete this post in...5,4,3,2,1 I'd say this post just locked up a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 I'd say this post just locked up a good winter. At least he is a better poster than BB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 At least he is a better poster than BB. No. Just not as often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 No. Just not as often. At least no trash can lid or grill cover talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Cfs2 is trending towards a weak niño? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 there was definitely more of an El Nino look at this time last year but it fell apart. Drastic differences also in the PDO regions where there isnt any cold water anywhere this year http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.8.16.2012.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 So I didn't know where to post this but guess who is part of your region now!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Just finished my preliminary forecast for winter 2013-14. Its Posted on my blog here: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-14-outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Just finished my preliminary forecast for winter 2013-14. Its Posted on my blog here: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-14-outlook.html That's going to have some DC people buying rope and looking for a tall tree. The only thing in your outlook that I saw that was a bit scary to me in the composite analogs you used was the D-R-Y (for my area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Just finished my preliminary forecast for winter 2013-14. Its Posted on my blog here: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-14-outlook.html nice job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Just finished my preliminary forecast for winter 2013-14. Its Posted on my blog here: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-14-outlook.html nice job Agree. Cleanly written and reasoned. The maps were good up until the conglomerate overview map. I would find a way to tinker with that. Maybe just drop the "wintery battle zone", as that really doesn't say much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Warm and dry is better than cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 This has probably been spotted and documented before but I noticed that in the last 63 years we've never had a La Nina after prolonged neutral conditions. The longest neutral run before a La Nina was 9 tri-monthlies in 2005. All the rest of the prolonged neutral condition runs (11) were 10 or more tri-monthlies of neutral conditions before an El Nino. Currently we're at 15 and growing. Noted in the general forum's ENSO thread. I haven't spent a ton of time looking at ENSO, but this looks to be accurate via ONI going back to 1950. All official Ninas have either followed an official Nino or are a part of a multi-year Nina event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 so a repeat of the last two winters give or take a couple swings in temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Noted in the general forum's ENSO thread. I haven't spent a ton of time looking at ENSO, but this looks to be accurate via ONI going back to 1950. All official Ninas have either followed an official Nino or are a part of a multi-year Nina event. So if one were to "forecast" ENSO based on the fact that there have been 15 tri-monthlies of neutral ENSO in a row, then one would be better off forecasting Nino or neutral. And that's just taking this sole piece of data into account. Is that the right way to read it, or am I totally off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 I remain optomistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 So if one were to "forecast" ENSO based on the fact that there have been 15 tri-monthlies of neutral ENSO in a row, then one would be better off forecasting Nino or neutral. And that's just taking this sole piece of data into account. Is that the right way to read it, or am I totally off? Yeah, in isolation, you would not forecast a Nina going on this climo information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Yeah, in isolation, you would not forecast a Nina going on this climo information. I smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 So we'll switch a cool summer for a warm winter? Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 So we'll switch a cool summer for a warm winter? Figures. Good for the power bills, bad for the psyche of the weenie community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Dry is the enemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 When in doubt, forecast (snow) drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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