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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.


Bob Chill

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There really is only one SNO...imposters should be banned :santa:

Because you must KNO...the winter of 2013-2014 will be:

 

1. Above normal temps (+1-2)

2. Below normal snowfall (10in DCA, 15in BWI, 18in IAD)

3. Precip normal to slightly above (rain, slop mixture)

4. Best periods for SNO (Dec 24/25, Jan 24/25, Feb 3/4)

5. If you are EAST of the beltway...plan on driving to Deep Creek to see SNO

 

My guess the powers that be will delete this post in...5,4,3,2,1 :snowing:

 

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There really is only one SNO...imposters should be banned :santa:

Because you must KNO...the winter of 2013-2014 will be:

1. Above normal temps (+1-2)

2. Below normal snowfall (10in DCA, 15in BWI, 18in IAD)

3. Precip normal to slightly above (rain, slop mixture)

4. Best periods for SNO (Dec 24/25, Jan 24/25, Feb 3/4)

5. If you are EAST of the beltway...plan on driving to Deep Creek to see SNO

My guess the powers that be will delete this post in...5,4,3,2,1 :snowing:

I'd say this post just locked up a good winter.

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Just finished my preliminary forecast for winter 2013-14. Its Posted on my blog here: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-14-outlook.html

That's going to have some DC people buying rope and looking for a tall tree.

 

The only thing in your outlook that I saw that was a bit scary to me in the composite analogs you used was the D-R-Y (for my area).

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Just finished my preliminary forecast for winter 2013-14. Its Posted on my blog here: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-14-outlook.html

 

 

nice job

 

Agree.  Cleanly written and reasoned.  The maps were good up until the conglomerate overview map.  I would find a way to tinker with that.  Maybe just drop the "wintery battle zone", as that really doesn't say much.

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This has probably been spotted and documented before but I noticed that in the last 63 years we've never had a La Nina after prolonged neutral conditions.  The longest neutral run before a La Nina was 9 tri-monthlies in 2005.  All the rest of the prolonged neutral condition runs (11) were 10 or more tri-monthlies of neutral conditions before an El Nino.  Currently we're at 15 and growing.

 

Noted in the general forum's ENSO thread.  I haven't spent a ton of time looking at ENSO, but this looks to be accurate via ONI going back to 1950.  All official Ninas have either followed an official Nino or are a part of a multi-year Nina event. 

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Noted in the general forum's ENSO thread.  I haven't spent a ton of time looking at ENSO, but this looks to be accurate via ONI going back to 1950.  All official Ninas have either followed an official Nino or are a part of a multi-year Nina event. 

 

So if one were to "forecast" ENSO based on the fact that there have been 15 tri-monthlies of neutral ENSO in a row, then one would be better off forecasting Nino or neutral.  And that's just taking this sole piece of data into account.

 

Is that the right way to read it, or am I totally off?

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So if one were to "forecast" ENSO based on the fact that there have been 15 tri-monthlies of neutral ENSO in a row, then one would be better off forecasting Nino or neutral.  And that's just taking this sole piece of data into account.

 

Is that the right way to read it, or am I totally off?

 

Yeah, in isolation, you would not forecast a Nina going on this climo information.

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