mattie g Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Little bastards are stealing my tomatoes. Maybe they know they are getting fat and are trying to attempt a healthier diet? .22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 cold/dry, wet/warm Damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 I think I asked this elsewhere, but what do the analogs say about a neutral after a neutral after a Nina after a Nina? Kind of a ridiculous question, of course... We don't have any ideal examples..closest ENSO progression to what we are experiencing would be 1998-2002....But it is reasonable to lean toward it carrying the imprint of the past few winters, especially with the -PDO....every single one of our good neutral winters, either followed ninos or were in the middle/end of warm enso phases...I really think we want as much nina as possible this winter, given NIno is pretty much off the table...we have been in a cold/neutral phase 67 out of the last 77 months...with a -/neutral PDO 68 out of the last 77 months...our current ENSO state is the polar opposite of the awesome 1957-70 period when we were in a warm/neutral phase for 95% of the 13 years I don't think we are going to see a good period of winters again, until we get into a warm enso phase for a stretch of multiple years... So I think for the coastal plain this winter it is more of the same, with the caveat that it is hard to do as bad as we have done the last 2 winters....so - Lots of cartoppers - moisture starved clippers - mountain eaters - systems out of the south and west with 1012 and 1016 lows - primary track west of the mountains - warm/wet, cold/dry - models overdoing QPF for most systems I think the upside is if we can get cold and I think the closest we can get to nina is helpful for that....for at least a period....then we have a better chance of becoming Hollywood, MD or Orange, VA or Blacksburg for a storm or 2....we are kind of due for a 4-8" region wide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 We don't have any ideal examples..closest ENSO progression to what we are experiencing would be 1998-2002....But it is reasonable to lean toward it carrying the imprint of the past few winters, especially with the -PDO....every single one of our good neutral winters, either followed ninos or were in the middle/end of warm enso phases...I really think we want as much nina as possible this winter, given NIno is pretty much off the table...we have been in a cold/neutral phase 67 out of the last 77 months...with a -/neutral PDO 68 out of the last 77 months...our current ENSO state is the polar opposite of the awesome 1957-70 period when we were in a warm/neutral phase for 95% of the 13 years I don't think we are going to see a good period of winters again, until we get into a warm enso phase for a stretch of multiple years... So I think for the coastal plain this winter it is more of the same, with the caveat that it is hard to do as bad as we have done the last 2 winters....so - Lots of cartoppers - moisture starved clippers - mountain eaters - systems out of the south and west with 1012 and 1016 lows - primary track west of the mountains - warm/wet, cold/dry - models overdoing QPF for most systems I think the upside is if we can get cold and I think the closest we can get to nina is helpful for that....for at least a period....then we have a better chance of becoming Hollywood, MD or Orange, VA or Blacksburg for a storm or 2....we are kind of due for a 4-8" region wide... I've posted this before in some thread..so I am not being a debbie downer just to be one...There is justification for not being optimistic...I am easily pleased in winter, but I know many aren't.. Here are our 20"+ winters since 1950 57-58 - Nino 59-60 - Neutral after 2-year nino 60-61 - Neutral after 3 year warm/neutral ENSO 62-63 - Neutral after 6 year nino/neutral phase 63-64 - Nino 65-66 - Nino 66-67 - Neutral after nino 67-68 - neutral after 3 year warm/neutral enso 77-78 - Nino 78-79 - Neutral after 2-year Nino 79-80 - neutral after 4 year warm/neutral phase 81-82 - neutral after 6 year warm/neutral phase 82-83 - Nino 86-87 - Nino 87-88 - Nino 95-96 - weak nina after 7 year warm/neutral phase 02-03 - Nino 09-10 - Nino so far the only argument I have seen for an above climo winter is that I could be wrong, winter is hard to predict, fluke etc....and I absolutely could be wrong....but the evidence is overwhelming against an above climo winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 It was kind of a joking question, but that answer was pretty damn good, zwyts. And enlightening. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 It was kind of a joking question, but that answer was pretty damn good, zwyts. And enlightening. Thanks. it is a good question...whether the further we can get away from full blown nina might enable us to large scale pattern shift and I think in this case the answer is no..there are going to be a lot of bad outlooks this winter because people LOVE to go cold in neutral winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 I've posted this before in some thread..so I am not being a debbie downer just to be one...There is justification for not being optimistic...I am easily pleased in winter, but I know many aren't.. Here are our 20"+ winters since 1950 57-58 - Nino 59-60 - Neutral after 2-year nino 60-61 - Neutral after 3 year warm/neutral ENSO 62-63 - Neutral after 6 year nino/neutral phase 63-64 - Nino 65-66 - Nino 66-67 - Neutral after nino 67-68 - neutral after 3 year warm/neutral enso 77-78 - Nino 78-79 - Neutral after 2-year Nino 79-80 - neutral after 4 year warm/neutral phase 81-82 - neutral after 6 year warm/neutral phase 82-83 - Nino 86-87 - Nino 87-88 - Nino 95-96 - weak nina after 7 year warm/neutral phase 02-03 - Nino 09-10 - Nino so far the only argument I have seen for an above climo winter is that I could be wrong, winter is hard to predict, fluke etc....and I absolutely could be wrong....but the evidence is overwhelming against an above climo winter It does look kind of bleak for we guys in the I95 DC crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 I've posted this before in some thread..so I am not being a debbie downer just to be one...There is justification for not being optimistic...I am easily pleased in winter, but I know many aren't.. Here are our 20"+ winters since 1950 57-58 - Nino 59-60 - Neutral after 2-year nino 60-61 - Neutral after 3 year warm/neutral ENSO 62-63 - Neutral after 6 year nino/neutral phase 63-64 - Nino 65-66 - Nino 66-67 - Neutral after nino 67-68 - neutral after 3 year warm/neutral enso 77-78 - Nino 78-79 - Neutral after 2-year Nino 79-80 - neutral after 4 year warm/neutral phase 81-82 - neutral after 6 year warm/neutral phase 82-83 - Nino 86-87 - Nino 87-88 - Nino 95-96 - weak nina after 7 year warm/neutral phase 02-03 - Nino 09-10 - Nino so far the only argument I have seen for an above climo winter is that I could be wrong, winter is hard to predict, fluke etc....and I absolutely could be wrong....but the evidence is overwhelming against an above climo winter Matt, I was reading somewhere (and now cannot remember where) that this current run of enso conditions is a bit unprecedented in the records going back to 1950, and, iirc, they mentioned a closest match being somewhere in the early 50's (maybe late 40's ?). I just can't remember where I saw this. But the latest CPC discussion mentions this as being a time of higher uncertainty. I wonder, given your own statement about their not really being a good historical match, if this winter gives a result that isn't exactly what we might expect. Of course, that still wouldn't mean good. When I look at the history, it is indeed difficult to find a good match. Looking at the period of 1954-1960, we had 3 cons. Nina's followed by a niño followed by a long period of neutral but mostly cold neutral. Looking at the Winchester data starting in the third year after the one niño we had a run of really good snowfall winters. I'm sure there are other factors in play that you can point out that I'm not aware of, but at least Enso wise it's slightly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Those are some pretty compelling stats for DCA >20" snowfalls. But that goes back to how we've said their big winters are totally stacked with El Ninos...but even the neutrals are following Ninos for the most part. This year's ENSO analog is a bit strange though...we're coming off a neutral winter but I'm not sure we have a winter like that in our relatively short 60 year sample of good data. It started off as El Nino in late summer and early autumn but then fizzled rapidly and we basically had La Nina conditions by mid winter in the ENSO region. So it was kind of an "extreme neutral"...tale of two phases cancelling eachother out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Matt, I was reading somewhere (and now cannot remember where) that this current run of enso conditions is a bit unprecedented in the records going back to 1950, and, iirc, they mentioned a closest match being somewhere in the early 50's (maybe late 40's ?). I just can't remember where I saw this. But the latest CPC discussion mentions this as being a time of higher uncertainty. I wonder, given your own statement about their not really being a good historical match, if this winter gives a result that isn't exactly what we might expect. Of course, that still wouldn't mean good. When I look at the history, it is indeed difficult to find a good match. Looking at the period of 1954-1960, we had 3 cons. Nina's followed by a niño followed by a long period of neutral but mostly cold neutral. Looking at the Winchester data starting in the third year after the one niño we had a run of really good snowfall winters. I'm sure there are other factors in play that you can point out that I'm not aware of, but at least Enso wise it's slightly similar. I think probably the late 40s...that period isn't bad..I have mentioned it a few times recently....I kind of like 45-46 as a potential analog....and we had a big and cold DEC....also 56 might not be bad and they had the cold January....but I'd like to see more of a Nina....57-70 is a pretty bad match imo, but a lot of people love going cold in neutral winters so I expect to see a lot of cold outlooks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Those are some pretty compelling stats for DCA >20" snowfalls. But that goes back to how we've said their big winters are totally stacked with El Ninos...but even the neutrals are following Ninos for the most part. This year's ENSO analog is a bit strange though...we're coming off a neutral winter but I'm not sure we have a winter like that in our relatively short 60 year sample of good data. It started off as El Nino in late summer and early autumn but then fizzled rapidly and we basically had La Nina conditions by mid winter in the ENSO region. So it was kind of an "extreme neutral"...tale of two phases cancelling eachother out. we aren't going to find any ideal enso match, but I don't think it matters...all of DC's big winters were ninos or part of lagging warm phases.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 I am all in For another **** winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 this place sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 this place sucks Move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 And....case closed: I am not sure what is worse, him positing it or his followers believing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 I am all in For another **** winter I think we will have a decent to good winter LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 this place sucks You should have stayed in CT. They have a lot more snow than here and they also have Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 One of my best friends moved northwest of Hartford just this summer. I told him I'm coming up for a blizzard. No doubt they'll get like seven or eight again this year, so I'm sure I'll see him soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 80's for the superbowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 You should have stayed in CT. They have a lot more snow than here and they also have Kevin.That place sucks more except for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Every year there's always some "grasping at straws" solution- stratospheric warming events, papers written about October Siberian snowcover... looks like this year will be "the Sun's magnetic field flipping" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 How's this for a grasping at straws solution: Significantly below normal temp, normal precip (but in the form of multiple 3" snows that stick around for weeks because of temps), with an unusual warm period in early to mid Jan. You heard it here first, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 How's this for a grasping at straws solution: Significantly below normal temp, normal precip (but in the form of multiple 3" snows that stick around for weeks because of temps), with an unusual warm period in early to mid Jan. You heard it here first, folks! sno? Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Every year there's always some "grasping at straws" solution- stratospheric warming events, papers written about October Siberian snowcover... looks like this year will be "the Sun's magnetic field flipping" lol We saw what that accomplished...We got useless blocking since the PAC was terrible, and Tolland got 500" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 sno? Is that you? Can't be SNO. SNO gives dates for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 maybe my move north will help me out... Enjoy your extra .4" a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Brett Anderson posted info about the updated Euro for the Winter the other day. Said it's currently showing a higher likelihood of a negative AO, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 That place sucks more except for snow Plenty of fakenadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Jb on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 It's too far east. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1376366715.209431.jpgJb on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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