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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.


Bob Chill

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I think I asked this elsewhere, but what do the analogs say about a neutral after a neutral after a Nina after a Nina?

Kind of a ridiculous question, of course...

 

We don't have any ideal examples..closest ENSO progression to what we are experiencing would be 1998-2002....But it is reasonable to lean toward it carrying the imprint of the past few winters, especially with the -PDO....every single one of our good neutral winters, either followed ninos or were in the middle/end of warm enso phases...I really think we want as much nina as possible this winter, given NIno is pretty much off the table...we have been in a cold/neutral phase 67 out of the last 77 months...with a -/neutral PDO 68 out of the last 77 months...our current ENSO state is the polar opposite of the awesome 1957-70 period when we were in a warm/neutral phase for 95% of the 13 years

 

I don't think we are going to see a good period of winters again, until we get into a warm enso phase for a stretch of multiple years...

 

So I think for the coastal plain this winter it is more of the same, with the caveat that it is hard to do as bad as we have done the last 2 winters....so 

 

 - Lots of cartoppers

 - moisture starved clippers

 - mountain eaters

 - systems out of the south and west with 1012 and 1016 lows

 - primary track west of the mountains

 - warm/wet, cold/dry

 - models overdoing QPF for most systems

 

I think the upside is if we can get cold and I think the closest we can get to nina is helpful for that....for at least a period....then we have a better chance of becoming Hollywood, MD or Orange, VA or Blacksburg for a storm or 2....we are kind of due for a 4-8" region wide...

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We don't have any ideal examples..closest ENSO progression to what we are experiencing would be 1998-2002....But it is reasonable to lean toward it carrying the imprint of the past few winters, especially with the -PDO....every single one of our good neutral winters, either followed ninos or were in the middle/end of warm enso phases...I really think we want as much nina as possible this winter, given NIno is pretty much off the table...we have been in a cold/neutral phase 67 out of the last 77 months...with a -/neutral PDO 68 out of the last 77 months...our current ENSO state is the polar opposite of the awesome 1957-70 period when we were in a warm/neutral phase for 95% of the 13 years

 

I don't think we are going to see a good period of winters again, until we get into a warm enso phase for a stretch of multiple years...

 

So I think for the coastal plain this winter it is more of the same, with the caveat that it is hard to do as bad as we have done the last 2 winters....so 

 

 - Lots of cartoppers

 - moisture starved clippers

 - mountain eaters

 - systems out of the south and west with 1012 and 1016 lows

 - primary track west of the mountains

 - warm/wet, cold/dry

 - models overdoing QPF for most systems

 

I think the upside is if we can get cold and I think the closest we can get to nina is helpful for that....for at least a period....then we have a better chance of becoming Hollywood, MD or Orange, VA or Blacksburg for a storm or 2....we are kind of due for a 4-8" region wide...

 

 

I've posted this before in some thread..so I am not being a debbie downer just to be one...There is justification for not being optimistic...I am easily pleased in winter, but I know many aren't..

 

Here are our 20"+ winters since 1950

 

57-58 - Nino

59-60 - Neutral after 2-year nino

60-61 - Neutral after 3 year warm/neutral ENSO

62-63 - Neutral after 6 year nino/neutral phase

63-64 - Nino

65-66 - Nino

66-67 - Neutral after nino

67-68 - neutral after 3 year warm/neutral enso

77-78 - Nino

78-79 - Neutral after 2-year Nino

79-80 - neutral after 4 year warm/neutral phase

81-82 - neutral after 6 year warm/neutral phase

82-83 - Nino

86-87 - Nino

87-88 - Nino

95-96 - weak nina after 7 year warm/neutral phase

02-03 - Nino

09-10 - Nino

 

so far the only argument I have seen for an above climo winter is that I could be wrong, winter is hard to predict, fluke etc....and I absolutely could be wrong....but the evidence is overwhelming against an above climo winter

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It was kind of a joking question, but that answer was pretty damn good, zwyts. And enlightening.

Thanks.

 

 

it is a good question...whether the further we can get away from full blown nina might enable us to large scale pattern shift and I think in this case the answer is no..there are going to be a lot of bad outlooks this winter because people LOVE to go cold in neutral winters

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I've posted this before in some thread..so I am not being a debbie downer just to be one...There is justification for not being optimistic...I am easily pleased in winter, but I know many aren't..

 

Here are our 20"+ winters since 1950

 

57-58 - Nino

59-60 - Neutral after 2-year nino

60-61 - Neutral after 3 year warm/neutral ENSO

62-63 - Neutral after 6 year nino/neutral phase

63-64 - Nino

65-66 - Nino

66-67 - Neutral after nino

67-68 - neutral after 3 year warm/neutral enso

77-78 - Nino

78-79 - Neutral after 2-year Nino

79-80 - neutral after 4 year warm/neutral phase

81-82 - neutral after 6 year warm/neutral phase

82-83 - Nino

86-87 - Nino

87-88 - Nino

95-96 - weak nina after 7 year warm/neutral phase

02-03 - Nino

09-10 - Nino

 

so far the only argument I have seen for an above climo winter is that I could be wrong, winter is hard to predict, fluke etc....and I absolutely could be wrong....but the evidence is overwhelming against an above climo winter

 

It does look kind of bleak for we guys in the I95 DC crowd. 

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I've posted this before in some thread..so I am not being a debbie downer just to be one...There is justification for not being optimistic...I am easily pleased in winter, but I know many aren't..

Here are our 20"+ winters since 1950

57-58 - Nino

59-60 - Neutral after 2-year nino

60-61 - Neutral after 3 year warm/neutral ENSO

62-63 - Neutral after 6 year nino/neutral phase

63-64 - Nino

65-66 - Nino

66-67 - Neutral after nino

67-68 - neutral after 3 year warm/neutral enso

77-78 - Nino

78-79 - Neutral after 2-year Nino

79-80 - neutral after 4 year warm/neutral phase

81-82 - neutral after 6 year warm/neutral phase

82-83 - Nino

86-87 - Nino

87-88 - Nino

95-96 - weak nina after 7 year warm/neutral phase

02-03 - Nino

09-10 - Nino

so far the only argument I have seen for an above climo winter is that I could be wrong, winter is hard to predict, fluke etc....and I absolutely could be wrong....but the evidence is overwhelming against an above climo winter

Matt, I was reading somewhere (and now cannot remember where) that this current run of enso conditions is a bit unprecedented in the records going back to 1950, and, iirc, they mentioned a closest match being somewhere in the early 50's (maybe late 40's ?). I just can't remember where I saw this. But the latest CPC discussion mentions this as being a time of higher uncertainty. I wonder, given your own statement about their not really being a good historical match, if this winter gives a result that isn't exactly what we might expect. Of course, that still wouldn't mean good.

When I look at the history, it is indeed difficult to find a good match. Looking at the period of 1954-1960, we had 3 cons. Nina's followed by a niño followed by a long period of neutral but mostly cold neutral. Looking at the Winchester data starting in the third year after the one niño we had a run of really good snowfall winters.

I'm sure there are other factors in play that you can point out that I'm not aware of, but at least Enso wise it's slightly similar.

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Those are some pretty compelling stats for DCA >20" snowfalls.

 

But that goes back to how we've said their big winters are totally stacked with El Ninos...but even the neutrals are following Ninos for the most part.

 

 

This year's ENSO analog is a bit strange though...we're coming off a neutral winter but I'm not sure we have a winter like that in our relatively short 60 year sample of good data. It started off as El Nino in late summer and early autumn but then fizzled rapidly and we basically had La Nina conditions by mid winter in the ENSO region. So it was kind of an "extreme neutral"...tale of two phases cancelling eachother out.

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Matt, I was reading somewhere (and now cannot remember where) that this current run of enso conditions is a bit unprecedented in the records going back to 1950, and, iirc, they mentioned a closest match being somewhere in the early 50's (maybe late 40's ?). I just can't remember where I saw this. But the latest CPC discussion mentions this as being a time of higher uncertainty. I wonder, given your own statement about their not really being a good historical match, if this winter gives a result that isn't exactly what we might expect. Of course, that still wouldn't mean good.

When I look at the history, it is indeed difficult to find a good match. Looking at the period of 1954-1960, we had 3 cons. Nina's followed by a niño followed by a long period of neutral but mostly cold neutral. Looking at the Winchester data starting in the third year after the one niño we had a run of really good snowfall winters.

I'm sure there are other factors in play that you can point out that I'm not aware of, but at least Enso wise it's slightly similar.

 

I think probably the late 40s...that period isn't bad..I have mentioned it a few times recently....I kind of like 45-46 as a potential analog....and we had a big and cold DEC....also 56 might not be bad and they had the cold January....but I'd like to see more of a Nina....57-70 is a pretty bad match imo, but a lot of people love going cold in neutral winters so I expect to see a lot of cold outlooks..

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Those are some pretty compelling stats for DCA >20" snowfalls.

 

But that goes back to how we've said their big winters are totally stacked with El Ninos...but even the neutrals are following Ninos for the most part.

 

 

This year's ENSO analog is a bit strange though...we're coming off a neutral winter but I'm not sure we have a winter like that in our relatively short 60 year sample of good data. It started off as El Nino in late summer and early autumn but then fizzled rapidly and we basically had La Nina conditions by mid winter in the ENSO region. So it was kind of an "extreme neutral"...tale of two phases cancelling eachother out.

 

 

we aren't going to find any ideal enso match, but I don't think it matters...all of DC's big winters were ninos or part of lagging warm phases....

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How's this for a grasping at straws solution: Significantly below normal temp, normal precip (but in the form of multiple 3" snows that stick around for weeks because of temps), with an unusual warm period in early to mid Jan.

 

You heard it here first, folks!

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How's this for a grasping at straws solution: Significantly below normal temp, normal precip (but in the form of multiple 3" snows that stick around for weeks because of temps), with an unusual warm period in early to mid Jan.

You heard it here first, folks!

sno? Is that you?
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Every year there's always some "grasping at straws" solution- stratospheric warming events, papers written about October Siberian snowcover... looks like this year will be "the Sun's magnetic field flipping" lol

 

We saw what that accomplished...We got useless blocking since the PAC was terrible, and Tolland got 500"

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