Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 The urge to speculate about winter cannot be denied. I've already cluttered up a thread or 2 so I figured I'll go ahead and start it off this year. All eyes on ENSO of course. Nino or bust it seems. Anything but a Nina. CFS has been looking good for Dec 1-5th timeframe. Everytime I look there is some sort of coastal and cold air in place. Only about 5,200 hours to go until we can lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Those are some big weenies. Randy...any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 ^^ LOL I prefer this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 . Not really trolling but humor involved no doubt. Just a place to keep winter discussions in instead of the other mid-lr threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 ^^ Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Ugh, it's not even summer yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 ^^ Ouch... CPC pretty much states that ENSO neutral is favored through summer and that models have a tough time with skill during mid-late spring that they call "spring barrier" whatever that means. I don't think any model is going to pick up on a meaningful trend one way or another until probably mid-July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 no comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 no comment Just don't get jealous when my thread is more interesting and has more posts than the severe one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Just don't get jealous when my thread is more interesting and has more posts than the severe one. Ian's been posting in the Staff forum nonstop about how he "<3's the snow" and "svr wx sux". I think he just can't admit it to the board at large yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 SNE doesn't even have a winter thread yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 SNE doesn't even have a winter thread yet That's why the MA > SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 SNE doesn't even have a winter thread yet That's why the MA > SNE In the worst way possible, just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 i have checked with the most respected LR forecaster in the biz and this was his answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I've just scoured the interwebs and checked every index for how the winter of 2013-14 will shape up. This sums up those predictions best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Word on the street is JB's going big...95-96, 02-03 and 09-10 prime analogs. I-95 special. Hounds of winter. Vodka cold. KU's galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 +2, 5-8"...sounds about right for a non-Nino next year.....we might be able to inch closer to 8-10" if we have a weak nino Hard to argue that. Recent history has been pretty stark irt enso & snow. If we don't go Nino the Nina hangover effect will be gone. Then things get really unpredictable. Blocking has been showing up in force for 3 of the last 4 years. Pac is always a wildcard. At least it oscillated between good and crappy last year and didn't hose us completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Word on the street is JB's going big...95-96, 02-03 and 09-10 prime analogs. I-95 special. Hounds of winter. Vodka cold. KU's galore.Template forecast ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Word on the street is JB's going big...95-96, 02-03 and 09-10 prime analogs. I-95 special. Hounds of winter. Vodka cold. KU's galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I have a feeling this will be a good winter, Bob started the thread and this is the latest in the year since the boards started that Ji has not canceled winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I think it is still there until we get a warm event, especially in a -PDO regime....a car that still smells like the previous owner with BO......you could make a case for something like say 85-86 and you get salvaged by a late FEB flurry to get 15-20" metro wide for the season, but that was in the middle of a monster +PDO regime, so we had a much more favorable PAC...without Nino forcing, we default to a ****ty PAC....lots of west to east events with 0.08" QPF as it splits over the mountains and the precip shield looks like a dying 100 year old.. I know its just stating the obvious, but I'd think snowfall is the one item that would be hardest to predict. You did a great job with temp picks last year. The snow part is just so "luck of the draw". Seriously, DC was about 10 degrees TOTAL from having a pretty good snowfall year. I think if we are NOT Nina, there's at least a reasonable chance of a good snowfall year even for you guys down low. Of course, there's a reasonable chance of not being part of the "draw" also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Hard to argue that. Recent history has been pretty stark irt enso & snow. If we don't go Nino the Nina hangover effect will be gone. Then things get really unpredictable. Blocking has been showing up in force for 3 of the last 4 years. Pac is always a wildcard. At least it oscillated between good and crappy last year and didn't hose us completely. This thread will have a lot of the above, but stated in a different way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 This thread is funny. It has 28 replies in just over 5 hours and the April severe thread has 245 replies in 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 This thread is funny. It has 28 replies in just over 5 hours and the April severe thread has 245 replies in 30 days.Proving that Dave doesn't know what he is talking about saying snow weenies and severe weenies are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 One thing that has caught my eye the last couple years is the area of anomalous heights that seems to set up on the russian side of the arctic every Dec-Jan. It appears to coincide with the low ice mins we've been having since 07. I know the +AMO is at least partially responsible for the open water late in the season in that area and I'll leave CC talk out of it. There has been virtually no extended period of anomalous low heights in that area since the early 2000's. The 90's were loaded with them though. This is one of the reasons I think analogs may not have the power they once had in lr predictions. LW circulation in the high latitudes appears to no longer behave how expect. Even during our ridiculous -ao periods we still never really got pummeled with arctic air at all. This is unusual compared to past history. And it's not like there isn't plenty of cold air to tap. Just ask the Russians and Chinese how many engine blocks cracked and faces froze off the last couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Proving that Dave doesn't know what he is talking about saying snow weenies and severe weenies are the same. We do have quite the numbers advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 I'm interested in severe. Moreso than previous years. But it kinda feels like baseball season. Something to pass time with until the real stuff starts with football season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I'm interested in severe. Moreso than previous years. But it kinda feels like baseball season. Something to pass time with until the real stuff starts with football season. My only interest in severe is hoping that it doesn't happen. That stuff destroys lives. Snow is usually pretty tame until you do something foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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