Deck Pic Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 I am not that experienced with forecasting these scenarios other than personal experience which counts for something, but I could see us being mostly cloudy for a week straight..or plenty of sun Wed through Sunday...I am torn.... Also figure we are good for another mini-stretch of 85+ sometime in the next 15 days, but I don't know when...maybe mid next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 29, 2013 Author Share Posted April 29, 2013 The euro isn't torchy hot, but 80-ish next Tue-Wed with a ridge over the east...we know how these things can trend here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 GFS really likes the idea of a slow rolling closed ull next week. Latest track would be snow in the winter. LOL. It pretty much gets stuck under blocking to the N and spins offshore keeping us in prolonged ne'rly flow through late in the run. Teleconnections argue against sustained ridging in our parts. First half of the month has the potential to go -2 to -4 or so. But if sustained ridging does develop it's prob a lock that it sticks around for a while. It's how we roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 GFS really likes the idea of a slow rolling closed ull next week. Latest track would be snow in the winter. LOL. It pretty much gets stuck under blocking to the N and spins offshore keeping us in prolonged ne'rly flow through late in the run. Teleconnections argue against sustained ridging in our parts. First half of the month has the potential to go -2 to -4 or so. But if sustained ridging does develop it's prob a lock that it sticks around for a while. It's how we roll. How's the Thanksgiving week looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 We always ridge around Memorial Day no matter what the overall pattern. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 I'm going + thru November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 We always ridge around Memorial Day no matter what the overall pattern. Book it. Yep, if we pull off the first 2 weeks with neg dep then it's a big score imo. Those deps will get eaten for breakfast come Mem day unless the stars align. I'm still thinking neg for the month but that is an easy bustable call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 How's the Thanksgiving week looking? I'll do a full update tomorrow. Haven't looked for a bit. Hope the suspense doesn't interfere with peep's sleep tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I'll do a full update tomorrow. Haven't looked for a bit. Hope the suspense doesn't interfere with peep's sleep tonight. I'm thinking we turn cold and snowy around Nov 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I'm pretty shocked at how the real heat is kept at bay on the models through the first half of May. Day after day the globals show an overall aob temp setup through at least the 10th. I'm sure we're going to have some warm breezy days in front of a front or 2 but it really does look like this spring is going to go down as one of the nicest temp wise in a quite a while. The cutoff ull next week may make things a little messy but we need the rain so let it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I'm pretty shocked at how the real heat is kept at bay on the models through the first half of May. Day after day the globals show an overall aob temp setup through at least the 10th. I'm sure we're going to have some warm breezy days in front of a front or 2 but it really does look like this spring is going to go down as one of the nicest temp wise in a quite a while. The cutoff ull next week may make things a little messy but we need the rain so let it rain. Let it rain. I will whine when we go without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Models have backed off a bit on the late in the run heat and ec ridge. Looks like there's going to be 2-3 frosty mornings far nw of DC up in the higher elevations and valleys mon-wed next week. After that there are mixed signals but none of them really point towards any type of prolonged aoa temp regime. 0z gfs has another cutoff off the coast of NE late next week. That would put us back in maritime flow if it were to actually happen. Way too far out there to even consider. 6z gfs likes the idea of a slow moving and wet boundary pushing south of us and then maybe lp riding it off the coast in the lr. I'm just not seeing any prolonged warmth at all. I was thinking back in April that the first half of may would be below normal. That's looking like a good call. Now it is starting to look like the possibility of the month going below normal is at least on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 The March Med/Long Thread had 65 pages. The 2013-2014 Winter Discussion has 113 replies. This thread has one page, and 11 (oops, now 12) replies half way through the month. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 May weather is better than anything we can get in winter. 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 12z Euro drops closed 500 low south out of the lakes late and gives the area like 1200" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 12z Euro drops closed 500 low south out of the lakes late and gives the area like 1200" of rain. GFS is pretty moist late next week through mem day weekend too. Not closed low style but slow moving boundaries and lotsa showers. Maybe this means it will be hot and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 GFS is pretty moist late next week through mem day weekend too. Not closed low style but slow moving boundaries and lotsa showers. Maybe this means it will be hot and dry. im banking on the euro being wrong for that so i don't have to be depressed till the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 im banking on the euro being wrong for that so i don't have to be depressed till the 18z gfs. A closed low dropping out of the gl's in mid may is not something I would like to wager on. That's for sure. I think the bad part about what we've been seeing the last couple days is various versions of a gl vortex in general. I wouldn't be surprised if that did end up happening and the ec ends up with another period of aob w/ low humidity. What an unusual spring compared to most in the last decade. I guess it's nice to see that we can still string together a fairly long period of extended "cool". I was beginning to thing that was a meteorological impossibility. You know, kinda like a 4" snowstorm in DC but different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 A closed low dropping out of the gl's in mid may is not something I would like to wager on. That's for sure. I think the bad part about what we've been seeing the last couple days is various versions of a gl vortex in general. I wouldn't be surprised if that did end up happening and the ec ends up with another period of aob w/ low humidity. What an unusual spring compared to most in the last decade. I guess it's nice to see that we can still string together a fairly long period of extended "cool". I was beginning to thing that was a meteorological impossibility. You know, kinda like a 4" snowstorm in DC but different. The ens means still keep it moving .. they have that dual ec and wc trough look but no major cutoff. I'm inclined to believe them more than the ops at this pt, tho it is still cutoff season and I am probably weeniecasting a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 The ens means still keep it moving .. they have that dual ec and wc trough look but no major cutoff. I'm inclined to believe them more than the ops at this pt, tho it is still cutoff season and I am probably weeniecasting a little. I pulled this image from a post I made in the April LR thread. I said back then I had a hunch that a portion of this month would have different variations of this setup. I would love to say I'm smart and all that but it was 50% lucky WAG and 50% lucky semi-educated guess. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 The ens means still keep it moving .. they have that dual ec and wc trough look but no major cutoff. I'm inclined to believe them more than the ops at this pt, tho it is still cutoff season and I am probably weeniecasting a little. Those dual troughs have been showing up for a while now, at least as far back as the day I was giving you a hard time about the 300 gfs. Pretty consistent signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Those dual troughs have been showing up for a while now, at least as far back as the day I was giving you a hard time about the 300 gfs. Pretty consistent signal. 0z gfs still hanging onto the idea around mem day weekend. Long ways out but there is definitely a signal for a coolish and wet weekend. Low to medium confidence but if I had to hedge I would say that next weekend at the very least will not be sunny and hot. Zwyts and I briefly discussed a cooler than norm May back in April. That's actually starting to look like a good call. I don't see enough warmth to erase the neg departures we already have and we could easily see some additional below norm days before we close out the month. IMO- this has been one of the best overall springs in many years. I haven't even come close to running my AC yet. Love it. This is the 0z's guess for Sat of the holiday weekend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 0z gfs still hanging onto the idea around mem day weekend. Long ways out but there is definitely a signal for a coolish and wet weekend. Low to medium confidence but if I had to hedge I would say that next weekend at the very least will not be sunny and hot. Zwyts and I briefly discussed a cooler than norm May back in April. That's actually starting to look like a good call. I don't see enough warmth to erase the neg departures we already have and we could easily see some additional below norm days before we close out the month. IMO- this has been one of the best overall springs in many years. I haven't even come close to running my AC yet. Love it. This is the 0z's guess for Sat of the holiday weekend: memdaywkend.JPG Winchester sitting at about -5.5 for the month. 11 of 14 days with a high less than 70. It's going to be tough to erase that departure. Possible, but not easy. Even harder will be getting the MAM period to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Mem. Day weekend looking spectacular right now. Heat ridge building to our west on GFS and Euro after Mem. day, question of when it arrives here. 6z GFS advertising 90s (mid 90s?) by Thurs-Fri of next week. Euro looks like it keeps the ridge out to the west a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Mem. Day weekend looking spectacular right now. Heat ridge building to our west on GFS and Euro after Mem. day, question of when it arrives here. 6z GFS advertising 90s (mid 90s?) by Thurs-Fri of next week. Euro looks like it keeps the ridge out to the west a bit longer. Hug the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Hug the Euro Euro is much more accurate at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Euro is still slower at bringing in the death ridge next week, but gets it here by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Death ridge looking more like a couple warm days with another, you guessed it, following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Death ridge looking more like a couple warm days with another, you guessed it, following. As long as the garden is OK with it, I'm OK with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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