N. OF PIKE Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Thanks john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Maybe a poll, for what highs will be in some areas may liven up some days this summer, sort of like the thread for bos yesterdayYeah that thread rocked and rolled its way to 9 posts yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 It's going to be a long process especially the further NE one travels. Let's use some good old meteorology. 1) winds are E near NYC. You would want winds more SW because those E winds are eventually veering to the SW over SNE, but all that is doing is advecting taint in from the New England south coast. That meso low needs to disappear south of NYC. That and te high in Maine is causing that flow. So that feature needs to go and it will eventually. 2) the sun needs to burn off this crap and allow for some mixing of sw winds aloft to help scour this stuff out. That will happen later, but a strong inversion and mid level clouds won't make it super easy. Sometimes that mixing out allows the real WF to almost jump north as Kevin alluded too. This looks like it will be a long process. Good luck Noyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 let's talk about the next two days...what exactly happens? Front slows down with training showers and t-storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 I don't think anyone in SNE sees 80F before 2pm...but sometimes it can happen fast if we manage to burn through the stratus deck by noon. But right now, I don't see much of that being burned off in SNE that quickly. Still pretty solid deck through NJ and SE NY at 10:30 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 let's talk about the next two days...what exactly happens? Front slows down with training showers and t-storms? Friday could be a soaker...def some heavy rain potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 It's going to be a long process especially the further NE one travels. Let's use some good old meteorology. 1) winds are E near NYC. You would want winds more SW because those E winds are eventually veering to the SW over SNE, but all that is doing is advecting taint in from the New England south coast. That meso low needs to disappear south of NYC. That and te high in Maine is causing that flow. So that feature needs to go and it will eventually. 2) the sun needs to burn off this crap and allow for some mixing of sw winds aloft to help scour this stuff out. That will happen later, but a strong inversion and mid level clouds won't make it super easy. Sometimes that mixing out allows the real WF to almost jump north as Kevin alluded too. This looks like it will be a long process. Good luck Noyes. stop it with that nonsense. i agree with you. it's already 10:30 and very little in the way of cracks in the deck over CT/RI and C/E MA. it'll take it's sweet time. there are some holes in the overcast in NW MA but with low level SSE flow that's going to take a while to eat away the edges. BDR still has an ENE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Too much downplaying here. The warmth is happening now and strengthens from here on out. No, I'm telling you factually what is going on, as evidenced by satellite and current sfc obs. Science, not delusion, Kevin -- you should try it some time. I am not saying it won't warm up, I'm discussing why it hasn't, yet. As far as that warm up goes, ...hate to say, climatology argues that one way or the other, warmth will bust. We'll see... Doesn't mean it can't either. But Scott just said the same thing I did, and that insolation needs to work -- and it is not, because there are mid and high level cloud parcels sheltering the llv crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 60.2/60 here and disc of sun just now visible thru the deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 It will get warm today eventually...late bloomer though. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 PER 10 AM OBSERVATIONS...WOULD PLACE THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE MA/NH BORDER AND EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MASS. UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT MARGINALLY NORTH. WINDS AT JAFFREY ARE LIGHT SOUTHWEST...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS SOME DRIFT NORTH. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE DRIFTING UP AT HARTFORD-SPRINGFIELD AND AT PROVIDENCE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. SIGNS OF BREAKAGE IN THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SO THAT ALONG WITH ADVECTION THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LIGHT FLOW AT SURFACE WILL SUPPORT SEABREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 upton has seen the light-says mostly cloudy rest of the day with temps in the 70's. 60/58 here. Mid level deck holding strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Hey Scott, were you referring to a meso analysis of some kind, when you were mentioning 'high up in Maine' ? Just asking, because HPC 's sfc depiction has a 1022mb high SSE of Nova Sc. and is arming it like a cold tentacle hundreds of miles west for the sole intent of curling around and tucking in cold...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 PER 10 AM OBSERVATIONS...WOULD PLACE THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE MA/NH BORDER AND EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MASS. UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT MARGINALLY NORTH. WINDS AT JAFFREY ARE LIGHT SOUTHWEST...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS SOME DRIFT NORTH. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE DRIFTING UP AT HARTFORD-SPRINGFIELD AND AT PROVIDENCE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. SIGNS OF BREAKAGE IN THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SO THAT ALONG WITH ADVECTION THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LIGHT FLOW AT SURFACE WILL SUPPORT SEABREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW Disagree with their frontal position being there. Just because the winds are SW doesn't mean you are in the warm sector. That said...the gist of what they are saying is about what we are all saying, and that it will take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Hey Scott, were you referring to a meso analysis of some kind, when you were mentioning 'high up in Maine' ? Just asking, because HPC 's sfc depiction has a 1022mb high SSE of Nova Sc. and is arming it like a cold tentacle hundreds of miles west for the sole intent of curling around and tucking in cold...haha I meant more or less some ridging. My bad for not being clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 I was looking on the SPC meso analysis. The 2 hr pressure change sometimes is the most detailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 With all that said, argued, opined and trolled... This really is some shallow shist... I am not sure how accurate all these home stations are, but given previous satellite trends, this would suggest some breaking in the overcast is underway around Albany... If these temps are accurate enough ... note how fast and explosive the temp does respond out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 I meant more or less some ridging. My bad for not being clear. That's cool! I was hoping you had another source, other than HPC... They only update like every 3 hours -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Wouldn't it be funny if the skies continued to unzip from west to east, but NORTH of CT, and the tuck locked in there while it blazed up here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 This is a massive tease fest if you want it warm and muggy... VT has warm sectored, and Hartford just "soared" to 62. It's approaching the mid 70s with DPs in the 60s up there, as the warm air attempts wrap around a seclude a cold packet of air over SNE. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Is analyze a warm front in NE PA where winds are westerly behind it and temps are near 80 as opposed to the southerly and easterly marine taint over SNE/NYC. The boundary should wash out quickly once the inversion breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 It really is fascinating how a light wind situation exposes how topography, teaming up with oceanic cold dense air, creates a virtual bowl where air gets trapped like this. If you can put your personal druthers aside for a moment, the observation of how it's in the 70s now from the Capital District of eastern NY, up through VT and probably soon unzipping into NH, well before CT can mix out, shows how the Berks create the western wall, and the oceanic dense boundary layer the east wall, and in between is trapped the murk. I have actually seen a whole synoptic translation of events fail to peel out this trapped type of air, in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Convection already erupting over NE PA... If that blossoms and throws anvil down stream over top, we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Is analyze a warm front in NE PA where winds are westerly behind it and temps are near 80 as opposed to the southerly and easterly marine taint over SNE/NYC. The boundary should wash out quickly once the inversion breaks down. it's so shallow... places will have quick jumps when it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Gosh, I don't blame any prognostic source, machine or man, for f this up -- if they did -- because this is just untenable. Cape Cod is now trying to warm sector. They are bursting into the 70s at home sites, and we still got NE flow at LGA. It's about as close to a region-wide "cold seclusion" pattern as you can get. Even I am brightening just now in Ayer in N. Mass. Fascinating really .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 the GOES outage makes this maddening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Is this for real... New Hartford CT home station jumps to 76F. They are at 875' elevation, and thus conceivably above the murk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Weathertap has updated visible shots. Not sure why other sites don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Weathertap has updated visible shots. Not sure why other sites don't. goes 13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 the GOES outage makes this maddening Agree with the force of trillion black holes. Nice timing guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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