Tropopause_Fold Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Many people are thinking humid and near 80 up here...I just don't know. I mean no mention of any of this crap which is surprising to me. yep. weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 It's never good to have NYC with east winds if you are a torch tickler in SNE. I think that thin line of storms from last nights outflow boundary that made it all the way to the LI Sound in Lower Westchester around 6 this morning gave a kick WWD to the BD as they sank south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 LOL the Sat pics are like the ones we got through DIFAX sockerrood http://www.wxforecaster.com/Satellite/New_England.html# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 It will get warm today eventually...late bloomer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 It will get warm today eventually...late bloomer though. Probably like a 5-6pm high, but all the forecasts have like 80 and humid by noon which isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 have to laugh at the weather this week-classic New England-sheet drizzle and 50's Sunday, all the way to 85 yesterday and now back to the 50's...all we're missing is the fog and drizzle today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Wonder if temps back off into the 40's. looks like backdoor is strengthening . Temps going nowhere today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 This weather blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Had .28 here between yesterday and this AM 1.17" to your north thanks mostly to that one cell I had go overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Wonder if temps back off into the 40's. looks like backdoor is strengthening . Temps going nowhere today Warm front surging north by dawn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Warm front surging north by dawn?well clearly it has with winds SW up to BOS. Just gotta burn the low clouds off which is happening now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 well clearly it has with winds SW up to BOS. Just gotta burn the low clouds off which is happening now The true front is back near NYC...where dewpoints are in the 50s and then just SW of that they are in the 70s. That's the front that matters in terms of storminess later today...gotta get that through us if we want anything close to severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The true front is back near NYC...where dewpoints are in the 50s and then just SW of that they are in the 70s. That's the front that matters in terms of storminess later today...gotta get that through us if we want anything close to severe.What it seems like will happen is the warm front sort of "jumps" north. I think folks are thinking it just slowly oozes and slides like a weenie into home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 @MattNoyesNECN: A scenario like this, with SW wind already established, supports late day 80s for MA/CT/RI & most of VT/NH @MattNoyesNECN: Though clouds prevail, surface plot shows SW wind thru all of Southern NewEng, warm going to win: http://t.co/txskpEx92T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Ok locked in all day. Temps in the 50's for everyone. Models and forecasters all clueless What are you talking about... Scott and I tried to warn you all day yesterday, but you were too busy with that nay-sayer auto-pilot thing you do to listen I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 What it seems like will happen is the warm front sort of "jumps" north. I think folks are thinking it just slowly oozes and slides like a weenie into home. NAM MOS went from 83 at Logan to 70 in one run -- could be telling. But, we need about 20kts of SW flow at 850 (general rule of thumb) to mix out a cold slab. Also, Dr. Colby and I have noted that saturated cool boundary layers are tougher to erode than dry cold during tuck patterns. This was a tuck pattern on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 I am not a big fan of HPC's surface analysis product. There is no way their depiction of the frontal tapestry in New England is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 I am not a big fan of HPC's surface analysis product. There is no way their depiction of the frontal tapestry in New England is correct. what's wrong with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Winds are pretty weak right now...so it may take a few hours to really get the temp spike going..particularly the furthern northeast you go in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 It will get warm today eventually...late bloomer though. Yeah ... for 20 minutes between 5 and 5:20pm, then clusters of chocked off dying convection shroud the sky with light rain anvils and it's pea-soup all night. And Kevin starts jumping around going see, it's warm... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 what's wrong with it? they were are cutting the front west to east through N CT/RI, when the air mass either side isn't really differentiable, nor is there a constant linear pressure along that axis. But ... in their defense, I just noticed that the last update was several hours ago. They just updated it and look ... much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 That's classic....almost looks like the atmosphere is deliberately singling New England out to be left out of the warm sector... Boundary curls circuitously around us like a na na na-na na game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 some ingredients in play for some pretty hefty rains later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Here comes a meatloaf comment from the rev lol. Will do you think the high dewpoints get in later to areas south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 some ingredients in play for some pretty hefty rains later this week. 00z NOGAPS was elevation snow for the interior/N ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 @MattNoyesNECN: A scenario like this, with SW wind already established, supports late day 80s for MA/CT/RI & most of VT/NH @MattNoyesNECN: Though clouds prevail, surface plot shows SW wind thru all of Southern NewEng, warm going to win: http://t.co/txskpEx92T Our winds are S and SE here down near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Our winds are S and SE here down near the coastSSW here thru HFD and BDL on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Here comes a meatloaf comment from the rev lol. Will do you think the high dewpoints get in later to areas south of the pike You didn't ask me ... but yesterdays BOX afd espoused the day as a kind of unilateral mixing out as the day progresses. One thing I am seeing via what is available of high res imagery this morning is that there is some mid and high level cloud contaminant running over top this lower strata tuck. We would be far more successful at mixing this out if the sun were allowed more unabated insolation. If the higher levels continue to "shelter" the lower strata from the sun, then the sfc heating is severally muted and less mixing results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Maybe a poll, for what highs will be in some areas may liven up some days this summer, sort of like the thread for bos yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 You didn't ask me ... but yesterdays BOX afd espoused the day as a kind of unilateral mixing out as the day progresses. One thing I am seeing via what is available of high res imagery this morning is that there is some mid and high level cloud contaminant running over top this lower strata tuck. We would be far more successful at mixing this out if the sun were allowed more unabated insolation. If the higher levels continue to "shelter" the lower strata from the sun, then the sfc heating is severally muted and less mixing results. Too much downplaying here. The warmth is happening now and strengthens from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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