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The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread


Typhoon Tip

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Lapse rates are ok for our standards...decent actually if that plume of higher lapse rates moves in. Best shear may be across MA and CNE while higher Cape MA and points SW. I'd say some decent boomers later in some areas. Kind of meh as far as s/w forcing goes...that's more for areas north with a s/w moving through NH.

 

The NAM has mlvl lapse rates (here at least) just under 7 C/KM while the GFS moves that EML plume in which mlvl lapse rates between 7-7.5 C/KM. Agreed, s/w forcing will be meh down here so I don't think we will see a great deal of widespread convection, however it is interesting to see mesomodels be so active...perhaps interaction with BDF and sea-breeze front will provide just enough focus of a mechanism given the amount of instability we may see develop...and while shear isn't great it isn't terrible either...25-30 knots of 0-6km shear can be enough

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This is a truly bizarre small line...  You can see sky through the cloud while there are occasional big drops of rain, and there have been 2 CG and a few intra ...plume lightning stroke.   But I'm having a tough time observing any real cloud base ..let alone CB structure.   Almost has a bit of an elevated look to it, too

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This is a truly bizarre small line...  You can see sky through the cloud while there are occasional big drops of rain, and there have been 2 CG and a few intra ...plume lightning stroke.   But I'm having a tough time observing any real cloud base ..let alone CB structure.   Almost has a bit of an elevated look to it, too

 

It might be. Line is kind of meh..looks like it's being helped by a weak s/w moving SE.

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Now I wonder what's in store for the remainder of the day.  Nice little season opener... Kind has the feel of an introductory performance by the summer gods.   It was a very Mid Western -like occurrence; we use to call them sun-thunder when I was a boy growing up in southern Michigan.  You could see sky-lights (hazed blue) through the edges, where other TCU are partially obscured, but still visible; all the while, there were 2 close lightning strikes and 3 minutes of downpour.  Sun is out and there are vestigial droplets still in the air.   

 

Question is, does it get torrid and soupy out, or was this perhaps the BD pushing SW?    There are TCU W and N of me, and the cloud motion in the lowest scud is SE, now SW, so if the boundary is coming, it's shallowing out.   Scud level is about the height of Mt Watchussett in an air mass like this, which is about 2500" -- that's pretty thin.  Right now I have no wind at all in the aftermath of my sun-shower.  

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Now I wonder what's in store for the remainder of the day.  Nice little season opener... Kind has the feel of an introductory performance by the summer gods.   It was a very Mid Western -like occurrence; we use to call them sun-thunder when I was a boy growing up in southern Michigan.  You could see sky-lights (hazed blue) through the edges, where other TCU are partially obscured, but still visible; all the while, there were 2 close lightning strikes and 3 minutes of downpour.  Sun is out and there are vestigial droplets still in the air.   

 

Question is, does it get torrid and soupy out, or was this perhaps the BD pushing SW?    There are TCU W and N of me, and the cloud motion in the lowest scud is SE, now SW, so if the boundary is coming, it's shallowing out.   Scud level is about the height of Mt Watchussett in an air mass like this, which is about 2500" -- that's pretty thin.  Right now I have no wind at all in the aftermath of my sun-shower.  

This seabreeze front is shallow. There is CU popping to my west probably along the edge of it. Maybe 6-7 miles away from here. 

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Okay, I see what's going on ... they were more surface based, as the backside illuminated multi-cellular TCU that were glaciating in a cluster, such that they merged to form what appeared on rad to be a single cell. That's why it was hard to make one out.   It was really garbage towers though -- more like 20, 2-pixel shower nodes in close proximity.  Very interesting, actually.   The fact that the line washed out when it crossed the boundary over eastern sections is also evidence of the sfc based nature of them. 

 

There is very little if any CIN out here.  As Scott noted, a weak S/W probably served to trigger, and towers poked immediately to 25000 or whatever they were.      

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