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The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread


Typhoon Tip

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that ORH record would be hard enough to break at the old spot, let alone at the airport lol. I know that airmass from 1911 was absurd though. imby the hotest temp Ive recorded over the past 10 years has been 99.4 (7/22/11)

 

In addition to the SNE heat, that July 3-11 stretch still holds record highs for all 3 NNE states, 105 at both Vernon, VT and Bridgton, ME (2X), and 106 for ASH, which reached triples 6 times in 9 days.  Judging by minima, it doesn't seem like the dews were too oppressive, at least not in the foothills; Bridgton's avg for the 9 days was 99/67 and Farmington's 98/62.  NNE's hottest days are often on relatively dry downsloping westerlies.

 

Edit:  Farmington hit 102 three times in that period and set their record at 104 on 7/10.  In the 100+ years since then, their top temp is 101 in 8/75 and the only other triple was the 100 in 6/44.

 

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As Yoda pointed out in the storm thread..d2 see txt

 

..

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY/WRN MA...
GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND
TO LIMIT THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED NWD AWAY FROM THE
WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
IF LARGER INSTABILITY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED DEVELOPS...AN UPGRADE
TO SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

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wow:

 

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALL POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SOON FROM KS INTO N TX.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN
KS INTO NRN OK AND BENDING SWWD W OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. FARTHER
SW...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NWRN TX...ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SW
ACROSS W TX.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NRN OK
INTO SERN KS WHERE A DEEP MOIST LAYER EXISTS. GIVEN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THETA-E AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THIS AREA COULD BE
WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. LONG HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS.

TO THE S...AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE AIR MASS EXISTS WITH AN INCREASING
CU FIELD FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK WHERE STRONG HEATING PERSISTS.
WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERY LARGE VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS...AS WELL AS
HODOGRAPH AUGMENTATION NEAR THE SFC FRONT WILL AID IN TORNADO
POTENTIAL. HP SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES AND
POSSIBLE RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWS...AND RAPIDLY
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS ERN OK LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS.

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Looks like only two days of swazz here. Hopefully more close up pics of men sweating in SW CT.

 

 

That crisp airmass for Memorial Day weekend is the way to go or the stuff we had all last week with dews in the 30s and 40s.

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That crisp airmass for Memorial Day weekend is the way to go or the stuff we had all last week with dews in the 30s and 40s.

 

 

Last two runs of the Euro have backed off the depth of negative anomaly with that...  but they have also not been entirely stable with the details either.  This run seems to get us into a long fetched ENE flow, so despite the 850mb warmer than previous runs (again), it has a strata/NW Atlantic puke vibe about it.  

 

Didn't really have that on the 00z run so it's possible that's wrong.  

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Last two runs of the Euro have backed off the depth of negative anomaly with that... but they have also not been entirely stable with the details either. This run seems to get us into a long fetched ENE flow, so despite the 850mb warmer than previous runs (again), it has a strata/NW Atlantic puke vibe about it.

Didn't really have that on the 00z run so it's possible that's wrong.

Yup it's now sunny and low- mid 70's
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Yup it's now sunny and low- mid 70's

 

 

Huh.... what part of "Strata/NW Atlantic puke..." argues for that ?   

 

But that's 'as is' -- given that there have 3 different detailed version across 3 cycles, it is unlikely this one run is the tell-all for the weekend

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I meant the current ideas/ forecast for weekend. All have sunny and low- mid 70's

 

 

I settled for just putting my tomatoes into the garden yesterday, as given seasonal trends a late obnoxious 37F morning cannot be rule out just yet...  man.   But, the trend seems to be backing off that... may just be able to keep the cold low around 43, which makes a big difference. 

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just looking over some of the sfc obs over the southern Lakes.  It's our air mass when the warm front punches back through overnight, tomorrow night.  Some places are 88/68 !!  

 

That's going to feel abrupt considering this year. 

 

I'm actually border line uncomfortable with this already at 81/61

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