Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Here ... a correction for my egregious mistake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Like I said today was going to over perform. Incredible sunny warm and increasing humidity! Viva la doom and gloom!!!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 that ORH record would be hard enough to break at the old spot, let alone at the airport lol. I know that airmass from 1911 was absurd though. imby the hotest temp Ive recorded over the past 10 years has been 99.4 (7/22/11) In addition to the SNE heat, that July 3-11 stretch still holds record highs for all 3 NNE states, 105 at both Vernon, VT and Bridgton, ME (2X), and 106 for ASH, which reached triples 6 times in 9 days. Judging by minima, it doesn't seem like the dews were too oppressive, at least not in the foothills; Bridgton's avg for the 9 days was 99/67 and Farmington's 98/62. NNE's hottest days are often on relatively dry downsloping westerlies. Edit: Farmington hit 102 three times in that period and set their record at 104 on 7/10. In the 100+ years since then, their top temp is 101 in 8/75 and the only other triple was the 100 in 6/44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 As Yoda pointed out in the storm thread..d2 see txt .. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY/WRN MA...GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF AWARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELMOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TENDTO LIMIT THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATEDSEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH THESTRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED NWD AWAY FROM THEWARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.IF LARGER INSTABILITY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED DEVELOPS...AN UPGRADETO SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 80F. Brrrr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 What a week! Great weather with humidity, no meh no meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Got some nice swazz on my lunch-time walk down the path. Go Go Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Looks like only two days of swazz here. Hopefully more close up pics of men sweating in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Got some nice swazz on my lunch-time walk down the path. Go Go Go!Were you doing any toe tapping on this " walk in the park" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Were you doing any toe tapping on this " walk in the park" Slowly a foot coming through the reeds, tapping away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 wow: PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEWSIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDSALL POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SOON FROM KS INTO N TX.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERNKS INTO NRN OK AND BENDING SWWD W OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. FARTHERSW...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NWRN TX...ON THENOSE OF A LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SWACROSS W TX.VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NRN OKINTO SERN KS WHERE A DEEP MOIST LAYER EXISTS. GIVEN A GRADUALINCREASE IN THETA-E AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THIS AREA COULD BEWHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. LONG HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MIDLEVELLAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDPROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN AFOREMENTIONEDTHERMODYNAMIC FACTORS.TO THE S...AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE AIR MASS EXISTS WITH AN INCREASINGCU FIELD FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK WHERE STRONG HEATING PERSISTS.WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERYLARGE HAIL LIKELY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS NOTPARTICULARLY STRONG...VERY LARGE VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS...AS WELL ASHODOGRAPH AUGMENTATION NEAR THE SFC FRONT WILL AID IN TORNADOPOTENTIAL. HP SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES ANDPOSSIBLE RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES.ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWS...AND RAPIDLYEXPAND NEWD ACROSS ERN OK LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE CONVECTIONALLOWING MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Looks like the enormous diabatic input is making the warm boundary diffused... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Looks like only two days of swazz here. Hopefully more close up pics of men sweating in SW CT. That crisp airmass for Memorial Day weekend is the way to go or the stuff we had all last week with dews in the 30s and 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 That crisp airmass for Memorial Day weekend is the way to go or the stuff we had all last week with dews in the 30s and 40s. Chilly on the Cape! Would hate to be vacationing there in record-breaking cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 That crisp airmass for Memorial Day weekend is the way to go or the stuff we had all last week with dews in the 30s and 40s. Crisp with shwrs on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 That crisp airmass for Memorial Day weekend is the way to go or the stuff we had all last week with dews in the 30s and 40s. Last two runs of the Euro have backed off the depth of negative anomaly with that... but they have also not been entirely stable with the details either. This run seems to get us into a long fetched ENE flow, so despite the 850mb warmer than previous runs (again), it has a strata/NW Atlantic puke vibe about it. Didn't really have that on the 00z run so it's possible that's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Crisp with shwrs on the euro? Trade the bathing suit for mittens and hats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Chilly on the Cape! Would hate to be vacationing there in record-breaking cold.Would hate to have a TOR chasing trip planned in CO in early June and keep seeing all ensembles with a death ridge parked right over Denver. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Last two runs of the Euro have backed off the depth of negative anomaly with that... but they have also not been entirely stable with the details either. This run seems to get us into a long fetched ENE flow, so despite the 850mb warmer than previous runs (again), it has a strata/NW Atlantic puke vibe about it. Didn't really have that on the 00z run so it's possible that's wrong. Yup it's now sunny and low- mid 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Which side do you prefer? @capecodweather: Remarkable temperature gradient modeled across NE CT, N RI, C MA tomorrow on the 4km NAM (red=80s, green=50s): http://t.co/sfBBLTNPLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yup it's now sunny and low- mid 70's Huh.... what part of "Strata/NW Atlantic puke..." argues for that ? But that's 'as is' -- given that there have 3 different detailed version across 3 cycles, it is unlikely this one run is the tell-all for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Which side do you prefer? @capecodweather: Remarkable temperature gradient modeled across NE CT, N RI, C MA tomorrow on the 4km NAM (red=80s, green=50s): http://t.co/sfBBLTNPLC Awesome stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Which side do you prefer? @capecodweather: Remarkable temperature gradient modeled across NE CT, N RI, C MA tomorrow on the 4km NAM (red=80s, green=50s): http://t.co/sfBBLTNPLC You can keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Huh.... what part of "Strata/NW Atlantic puke..." argues for that ? But that's 'as is' -- given that there have 3 different detailed version across 3 cycles, it is unlikely this one run is the tell-all for the weekend I meant the current ideas/ forecast for weekend. All have sunny and low- mid 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Slowly a foot coming through the reeds, tapping away.If the reeds are a tappin,fannies are a slappin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Which side do you prefer? @capecodweather: Remarkable temperature gradient modeled across NE CT, N RI, C MA tomorrow on the 4km NAM (red=80s, green=50s): http://t.co/sfBBLTNPLC Safely in the torch zone down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 I meant the current ideas/ forecast for weekend. All have sunny and low- mid 70's I settled for just putting my tomatoes into the garden yesterday, as given seasonal trends a late obnoxious 37F morning cannot be rule out just yet... man. But, the trend seems to be backing off that... may just be able to keep the cold low around 43, which makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 High of 78F here today, still no 80F + reading here this year, amazing since we had 90's in March last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 just looking over some of the sfc obs over the southern Lakes. It's our air mass when the warm front punches back through overnight, tomorrow night. Some places are 88/68 !! That's going to feel abrupt considering this year. I'm actually border line uncomfortable with this already at 81/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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