The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread

[snowman21]

Didn't we get close to the BDL consecutive record in the last 5 years? Cant remember the summer but I remember Blizz and Ryan arguing about whether we could set a new record.

This is BDL's list of heat waves (note BDL's history is about 30 years shorter than BOS's)...

 

 

10 days - 7/24-8/2/1995

9 days - 8/11-8/19/2002

9 days - 8/27-9/4/1973

8 days - 7/27-8/3/2006

8 days - 7/29-8/5/2002

8 days - 7/16-7/23/1991

8 days - 7/24-7/31/1970

8 days - 8/28-9/4/1953

8 days - 8/10-8/17/1944

7 days - 8/15-8/21/2009

7 days - 8/9-8/15/1988

7 days - 8/1-8/7/1988

7 days - 7/7-7/13/1981

7 days - 7/15-7/21/1977

6 days - 7/4-7/9/2010

6 days - 8/12-8/17/1970

6 days - 7/24-7/29/1963

6 days - 6/14-6/19/1957

6 days - 7/6-7/11/1937

5 days - 28 occurrences

4 days - 44 occurrences

3 days - 88 occurrences

[Typhoon Tip]

Could be night and day between BOS and BDL tomorrow and possibly Wednesday.

 

 

Yeah, the notion of an overnight N-door/BD has been fairly well represented by the higher resolution models.  In May, during a the "Great Buckle-Flow Spring of 2013", one would be wise to drill it in.  BUT, that said ... there was one scenario similar to this last month -- I recall -- where a weak frontal boundary was over incurred by the NAM.   Looking at sat trends, the warm boundary does appear to be slipping back S though.  Also, early transit of a low through the GL is a teleconnector for N-door warm frontal collapse and/or BD, so it fits.   

[snowman21]

Average number of 90+ days based on 1981-2010 normals (whether you believe these or not is another story)...

 

 

 

EWR - 20.9

LGA - 17.0

BDL - 14.6

POU - 14.1

BED - 12.2

NYC - 12.2

HFD - 11.9

BAF - 11.1

BOS - 10.3

MMK - 9.7

PVD - 9.3

JFK - 8.8

TAN - 8.2

IJD - 7.6

ALB - 7.1

BDR - 6.3

PYM - 5.7

DXR - 5.1

ISP - 4.8

EWB - 4.5

HVN - 3.8

ORH - 2.0

HYA - 1.8

UUU - 1.7

WST - 1.1

GON - 0.6

CHH - 0.0

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder if this is normal ... notice the majority of the water-ways N of the border are still frozen over ...NEARING JUNE!

 

[ORH_wxman]

 

Hey I got a question.   2 summers ago we had a "hot day" in SNE.  It was that weird day in early August, when the DPs suddenly left a 102/44 in FIT, while it was still 102/70 down along the South Coast?  

 

Anyway, a lot of sites posted their all-time high temperature records that day.  I remember driving east down Rt 9 from Westborough through Framingham around 6pm and it was 104F pegged on my car thermometer.   Did anyone in Massachusetts break the all-time record?  Or for CT and RI for that matter.

 

BDL broke their all time record in 2011. The records at the other 3 major climo sites were not broken though...here are the records and years broken:

BOS: 104F (1911)

ORH: 102F (1911)

PVD: 104F (1975)

BDL: 103F (2011)

It should be noted though that the ORH/BOS record highs were at different sites than the current obs location.

[Damage In Tolland]

Dew up to 64. Tick tick tickle

[ma blizzard]

 

 

BDL broke their all time record in 2011. The records at the other 3 major climo sites were not broken though...here are the records and years broken:

BOS: 104F (1911)

ORH: 102F (1911)

PVD: 104F (1975)

BDL: 103F (2011)

It should be noted though that the ORH/BOS record highs were at different sites than the current obs location.

that ORH record would be hard enough to break at the old spot, let alone at the airport lol. I know that airmass from 1911 was absurd though. imby the hotest temp Ive recorded over the past 10 years has been 99.4 (7/22/11)

[Damage In Tolland]

Scooter forecasting 90 Wed

@WSI_Energy: Wednesday: Hottest day so far in the I-95 corridor. Watch for upside surprise 85-90 most cities, even NYC and BOS. #PJM #NEISO #NYISO

[CoastalWx]

Scooter forecasting 90 Wed

@WSI_Energy: Wednesday: Hottest day so far in the I-95 corridor. Watch for upside surprise 85-90 most cities, even NYC and BOS. #PJM #NEISO #NYISO

 

LOL, meteotrade FTW...or FTL. Might be fuzzy here.

[ORH_wxman]

 

that ORH record would be hard enough to break at the old spot, let alone at the airport lol. I know that airmass from 1911 was absurd though. imby the hotest temp Ive recorded over the past 10 years has been 99.4 (7/22/11)

 

Yeah it blew away the records for the old sites too. ORH's record for the current airport site is 99F in September 1953. That record is staggering given the time of the year it occurred. The airport hasn't been able to get past 96F though since that September 1953 heat wave.

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL, meteotrade FTW...or FTL. Might be fuzzy here.

I like his thinking FTW. Gonna be some surprised sweaty ballz folks this week. Stores may have a run on TP too

[CoastalWx]

I like his thinking FTW. Gonna be some surprised sweaty ballz folks this week. Stores may have a run on TP too

 

Eh, it's late May. It's going to come eventually. Regardless, it goes away Friday.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

 

BDL broke their all time record in 2011. The records at the other 3 major climo sites were not broken though...here are the records and years broken:

BOS: 104F (1911)

ORH: 102F (1911)

PVD: 104F (1975)

BDL: 103F (2011)

It should be noted though that the ORH/BOS record highs were at different sites than the current obs location.

 

 

Actually it wasn't August. It was July that year.   Pretty impressive 4 days for Logan:

 

20 91   70 81 6 0 16 0.00 0.0 M 10.1 24 230 M M 3 32 220

21 97   73 85  10 0 20 0.00 0.0 M 17.5 31 220 M M 5 18 38 230

22 103 81 92  17 0 27 0.00 0.0 M 11.7 20 250 M M 3 8 25 280

23 92   72 82   7  0 17 0.11 0.0 0 8.1 18 300 M M 6 13 25 250

 

Capped out at 103 ...   Also, I shouldn't have said "Sites"   ...what I was thinking was a lot of people's station were maxed.   Anyway, one must wonder if the location in 1911 makes a difference there, because the ocean is thermal sink - duh.

[weatherwiz]

becoming interested in svr potential Wednesday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[Damage In Tolland]

Eh, it's late May. It's going to come eventually. Regardless, it goes away Friday.

Only to throttle back next week

[Typhoon Tip]

becoming interested in svr potential Wednesday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

 

 

SPC is all over it!

[Damage In Tolland]

Man is this the feel good tweet of the day or what?

@StormFurey: Since last Monday 4 days with highs 50's/60's. Next 4 days in the 80's/humid/scattered T-storms. Welcome to Summer!! http://t.co/j6QvcLb75f

[CoastalWx]

Sneaky BDF possibly into Tolland tomorrow aftn. 

[ORH_wxman]

 

Sneaky BDF possibly into Tolland tomorrow aftn.

 

That thing races SW on the models...might be the type of thing where its already into NE MA by lunchtime and then it finally gets into Hartford by evening.

[Brian5671]

Sneaky BDF possibly into Tolland tomorrow aftn. 

thank God it won't get down here...wouldn't want to ruin the excitement of 81 and humid in late May.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Actually it wasn't August. It was July that year.   Pretty impressive 4 days for Logan:

 

20 91   70 81 6 0 16 0.00 0.0 M 10.1 24 230 M M 3 32 220

21 97   73 85  10 0 20 0.00 0.0 M 17.5 31 220 M M 5 18 38 230

22 103 81 92  17 0 27 0.00 0.0 M 11.7 20 250 M M 3 8 25 280

23 92   72 82   7  0 17 0.11 0.0 0 8.1 18 300 M M 6 13 25 250

 

Capped out at 103 ...   Also, I shouldn't have said "Sites"   ...what I was thinking was a lot of people's station were maxed.   Anyway, one must wonder if the location in 1911 makes a difference there, because the ocean is thermal sink - duh.

 

Yeah I'm sure the location at the old site helped a bit. The Logan airport site also hit 103F in August 1975, so that 2011 reading is good for a tie at the Logan site.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sneaky BDF possibly into Tolland tomorrow aftn.

let us enjoy deep deep summer this week. We've had dry and mild long enough

[Damage In Tolland]

I mean in all seriousness how can you not enjoy today. Summertime, sun, dews are now in mid 60's, threat of storms is there. What's not to like?

[weatherwiz]

SPC is all over it!

 

I think we end up with at least a see text

[Typhoon Tip]

I think we end up with at least a see text

 

 

Should already ... the tongue-in-cheek was directed at them.  

 

Yeah, seems with a warm boundary through southern VT and NH that SRH may be a bit elevated, and we do have enough elevation land mass in western sections such that WSW over-flow could force a parcel or two.   Guess some 1000 CAPE type air mass...

 

Seems TXT would be warranted but who knows. 

[Damage In Tolland]

78/64 at BDL. We've waited a long time for this. They may be able to put up an 84/65 today

[weatherwiz]

Should already ... the tongue-in-cheek was directed at them.  

 

Yeah, seems with a warm boundary through southern VT and NH that SRH may be a bit elevated, and we do have enough elevation land mass in western sections such that WSW over-flow could force a parcel or two.   Guess some 1000 CAPE type air mass...

 

Seems TXT would be warranted but who knows. 

 

We've gone from nothing on a D3 to a slight on D2 before so it could happen

[snowman21]

Should already ... the tongue-in-cheek was directed at them.  

 

Yeah, seems with a warm boundary through southern VT and NH that SRH may be a bit elevated, and we do have enough elevation land mass in western sections such that WSW over-flow could force a parcel or two.   Guess some 1000 CAPE type air mass...

 

Seems TXT would be warranted but who knows. 

To be fair, you posted a fire weather outlook map. I think they have a different one for severe weather outlooks.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice MCS depiction on he operational GFS through the southern Lakes into the MA.   Then ...  sniffing out the season's first sack-sticker heat wave.  I wonder if any deviant sociologist pervert has ever scientifically correlated the incidences of oral gratification during warm departures... I bet it drops off a tick or two.  

 

Anyway, the ga-ga range of the operational GFS has been hinting at inflating the subtropical ridge, favorably in position along the MV to MA longitudes, to spill continental heat over the top into New England.  Some runs more than others...  But what I am seeing is the NAO domain is trying to go strongly positive toward the end of these next 10 days, at the same time the MJO has just completed a reasonably robust translation through Phase 3-5 before very recently decaying.   

 

Firstly, has any accredited source ever veraciously performed a P-test on the MJO correlation during May-June?  I'm curious how well the wave space works out, because we are pretty much closing the door on the PNA for the next 3 months, and I'm not really sure how the MJO can transmit a signal through the field if the PNA is less useful.  Seems the MJO's correlative ability would thus have to be effected.

 

That said, if there is some magical way a moderate strength Phase 4-5 influence in late May cab usurp the flow over North America into a quasi -PNAP configuration, together with the rise in the NAO (which DOES correlate much better), would fit nicely with some of these warmer runs for the end of the month.   Last couple of cycles have shown the Euro backing off the "cool snap", and/or delaying it ... which could be it's own slow capitulation to overall rising heights in the east given time.   

 

Signal is early and of course ... give to much of that, not clean 

[Typhoon Tip]

To be fair, you posted a fire weather outlook map. I think they have a different one for severe weather outlooks.

 

Oh, hahaha, of course they do!     ...my bad...