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The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread


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I haven't been over there in awhile, but the few times I went there, the crazy weenie-ism made this place seem like watching CSPAN. I knowledge level over there was pretty low and not many mets posted, but perhaps more do now.

 

 

Yeah there are very few meteorologists on that board and it did get tiring when everyone from Maine down to Virginia expects snow out of a Nor'easter, but is is very civil.

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challenging forecast next week. wondering if we see boundary slide south of us and force cool/damp low level marine layer into SNE for some period of time later tue-thur

Yeah... Very tough. Could be an impressive rain event spread over a few days too.

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Yeah... Very tough. Could be an impressive rain event spread over a few days too.

 

 

Yeah it may be quite the airmass change going from Tuesday to Wednesday or so.

 

one of those stretches where the difference in sensible weather could be huge either across SNE or just in general for the region. anecdotally it seems like everything has verified stronger/colder to our north - complete opposite of the last few springs it feels like - so i hesitate to go against that boundary sagging south and flipping the LL flow to the east

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one of those stretches where the difference in sensible weather could be huge either across SNE or just in general for the region. anecdotally it seems like everything has verified stronger/colder to our north - complete opposite of the last few springs it feels like - so i hesitate to go against that boundary sagging south and flipping the LL flow to the east

I know Will mentioned this the other day, but impressive to have so much sun and get temps on the chilly side this time of year. Usually those cold stretches are the result of precip and onshore flow.

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Yeah I mean I love the gaps that home stations fill in for us. The PD family site is one of the most useful tools I use in winter for nowcasting during frozen precip events.

I was more just emphasizing that we should realize what home stations are good at and what they need to be "adjusted" for. We usually take their wind speeds with a grain of salt, and we should with dewpoints as well even if the wind and dew readings are "accurate" for that specific spot. As long as we are educated on that aspect, the home stations are great.

Bingo... great post Will.

Its all about context. Most of us relate to the ASOS dews when we think of humid weather and you just need to adjust for PWS readings. 60F Td at the ASOS is like 70F at a PWS, and 70F at ASOS is like near 80 at a PWS....in terms of real feel.

Same with a 35mph gust at a PWS is impressive because you know those always run low relative to how we think of wind measurements. We think of dews in terms of how ASOS sites might measure them because that's what we grew up comparing with.

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I know Will mentioned this the other day, but impressive to have so much sun and get temps on the chilly side this time of year. Usually those cold stretches are the result of precip and onshore flow.

yeah. perhaps this week it's the more typical marine influence that holds temps in check. 

 

it's all in the lowest levels though so i just don't know (the week ahead). euro definitely runs that little wave along and drives the front S...but the 850s never really respond so it's all like the bottom couple thousand feet. could be a disaster if it locks in like that. but conversely if you break out into sun, it's so shallow, you could be OK. guess it's only saturday so things will change.

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Bingo... great post Will.

Its all about context. Most of us relate to the ASOS dews when we think of humid weather and you just need to adjust for PWS readings. 60F Td at the ASOS is like 70F at a PWS, and 70F at ASOS is like near 80 at a PWS....in terms of real feel.

Same with a 35mph gust at a PWS is impressive because you know those always run low relative to how we think of wind measurements. We think of dews in terms of how ASOS sites might measure them because that's what we grew up comparing with.

 

Exactly... this is the point Will, Scott, Brian and I have been trying to make for 3 or 4 years. At least some people get it!! 

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yeah. perhaps this week it's the more typical marine influence that holds temps in check. 

 

it's all in the lowest levels though so i just don't know (the week ahead). euro definitely runs that little wave along and drives the front S...but the 850s never really respond so it's all like the bottom couple thousand feet. could be a disaster if it locks in like that. but conversely if you break out into sun, it's so shallow, you could be OK. guess it's only saturday so things will change.

 

Wednesday severe NYC metro? 

 

I think it's a pretty wet pattern through D10 so at least the drought crowd will get some relief. 

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Yeah I'm not really thrilled with how things look at the end of the week.  Not only may we end up on the wrong side of the boundary, but for what's going to be near late May, that's quite a chilly airmass.  

 

My fear is as we move through the rest of May and work into June that we continue to see some dry/mild periods coupled with periods of crap, especially if that omega block pattern holds consistent and those patterns can be a real pain to break up.

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Not to rekindle dewgate, but this is important too:

 

Home weather stations also suffer from sensor contamination which is most pronounced on a humidity sensor. An impurity on a humidity sensor means a condensation surface right on the sensor itself thus increasing the indicated humidity. High end humidity sensors are heated which allows them to 'burn off' contamination and shut off condensation that artificially increases humidity. Notice how home stations sit at 100% humidity until 9, 10 AM? That's partly due to siting, and partly due to the sensors having nuclei stuck on them that continue to condense or maintain a wet surface very close to the sensor.

 

A lot of the home hygrometers need to be calibrated from time to time because the sensor will experience drift. If you leave one uncalibrated for years, the wear and impurities on the sensor will take their toll on the accuracy.

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Yeah I'm not really thrilled with how things look at the end of the week.  Not only may we end up on the wrong side of the boundary, but for what's going to be near late May, that's quite a chilly airmass.  

 

My fear is as we move through the rest of May and work into June that we continue to see some dry/mild periods coupled with periods of crap, especially if that omega block pattern holds consistent and those patterns can be a real pain to break up.

The EML is impressive on soundings from Norman this morning, chasers by the thousands down there.

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