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The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread


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"...THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MJJ 2013 INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES

FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ALASKA, THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...."

 

:huh:

 

I think just "warm everywhere" would have sufficed, then.   

 

Anyway, here is NCEP's JJA map:

 

m.02.t.gif

The only way to achieve that would have to be a PNAP-neutral pattern in the means, which is to say ... the perennial resting state pattern being dominant.  That pattern has a slight ridging in the west, and slight troughing structure/appearance, in the east.   That can really only happen if the flow of the Pacific is nearly zonal much of the time, such that ambient mountain torque causes tropospheric bulging out west.   

 

That's all well and good and probably is the course of least regret given to the neutral ENSO summer that is being thrown out by the couple air/sea modeling.   

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I am down in NYC (not my cup of tea but fun to visit in small doses) and the lower Hudson Valley is like mostly leafed out. Pretty much Albany northward is pretty sparse though you can tell up the Hudson and Champlain Valley that its getting ready to pop...anything north of ALB with elevation still looks like stick season.

Passed Dobbs Ferry and had to chuckle...but that's really where vegetation looked like 80% leafed out. Small hillsides pretty much covered in fresh green.

It is slowly spreading north...

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74/25...mucous membranes begging for mercy.

 

I've been getting that sere burning sensation once in a while, too.  

 

It is actually typical to get very dry conditions in this window between winter's end and fuller green-up.  I can remember many a March where an early warm spell ... heck, just look at last year.  It was very dry during that record warm March.   

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I've been getting that sere burning sensation once in a while, too.  

 

It is actually typical to get very dry conditions in this window between winter's end and fuller green-up.  I can remember many a March where an early warm spell ... heck, just look at last year.  It was very dry during that record warm March.   

Another reason I miss SRI, the air is always wetter, something about the salt air keeping the viruses at bay too.

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74/25...mucous membranes begging for mercy.

I'm not in VT but looks like the warmest day of the year in Stowe.

Mansfield is 66F at 4000ft and MVL below in the valley at 730ft is 78F. That's easily the warmest of the season for both of those. Knowing MVL and that valley's ability to dry torch, I bet they put up an 80 spot today.

BML up to 79F now too. The mountain valleys are torching in this dry air.

RH looks to be running in the 20% range with Td's in the 30s.

I love those dry heat days...this is the time of year where it'll be 80F and then scattered frost the next morning when mountain valleys like MVL and BML do 40+ swings. Forecast low tonight in the upper 30s, so should be able to hit that 40F diurnal swing.

Snowpack on the mountain looks to be taking a good hit today...lots more brown opening up on the ski trails based on the web cam.

Yesterday's COOP report had a 51" depth at 3700ft so it'll be interesting to see how much the last 24 hours lost.

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I'm not in VT but looks like the warmest day of the year in Stowe.

Mansfield is 66F at 4000ft and MVL below in the valley at 730ft is 78F. That's easily the warmest of the season for both of those. Knowing MVL and that valley's ability to dry torch, I bet they put up an 80 spot today.

BML up to 79F now too. The mountain valleys are torching in this dry air.

RH looks to be running in the 20% range with Td's in the 30s.

I love those dry heat days...this is the time of year where it'll be 80F and then scattered frost the next morning when mountain valleys like MVL and BML do 40+ swings. Forecast low tonight in the upper 30s, so should be able to hit that 40F diurnal swing.

 

 

The warm weather killed off Jay's bid for May skiing as they are done for the season.

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Euro with another 9-10 days of this lol

 

I know you make statements like this just to inflame people into talking about it, and no other reason at all ...   I'm not caving into that, but using this as a means to comment on how interesting it is that the 12z operational Euro caved to the GFS operational handling of the vestigial mid and upper level closed low in the heartland. 

 

The Euro was insisting previously that it lifted into Canada exiting via the Lakes, and that our region would be spared much if any direct influence.  Now, it is opting for the southern route ... taking it off the MA as it slowly fills.   Regardless of what the 850 thermal layout is, that would likely mean a couple of days of onshore flow and potential moisture pooling.   

 

Once it clears out around D9, the series ends with deep trough cutting into the GL en route to the OV, a seemingly permanent fixture in the operational Euro for it's D9 and 10s.  In other words, doubt it...

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This is interesting, I didn't notice that E-Wall had maps for hourly dew-point departures from average:

 

I wasn't paying attention and was surprised to see it in the 80s over the southern Lakes.   Kalamazoo was 83.   Meanwhile, snowing hard on the west side of the baroclinic zone -- nice gradient there. 

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I know you make statements like this just to inflame people into talking about it, and no other reason at all ... I'm not caving into that, but using this as a means to comment on how interesting it is that the 12z operational Euro caved to the GFS operational handling of the vestigial mid and upper level closed low in the heartland.

The Euro was insisting previously that it lifted into Canada exiting via the Lakes, and that our region would be spared much if any direct influence. Now, it is opting for the southern route ... taking it off the MA as it slowly fills. Regardless of what the 850 thermal layout is, that would likely mean a couple of days of onshore flow and potential moisture pooling.

Once it clears out around D9, the series ends with deep trough cutting into the GL en route to the OV, a seemingly permanent fixture in the operational Euro for it's D9 and 10s. In other words, doubt it...

Verbatim Euro would be another 8-10 days of little to no rain as the high blocks the weakening ULL to our south. And we are left with wx similar to earlier this week
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The warm weather killed off Jay's bid for May skiing as they are done for the season.

Sugarbush still going with free skiing this weekend...that's the best way to do it this time of year, haha. Who cares if its walking in spots or something...it's free so no one can claim anything about lack of quality.

Here's a photo a friend posted from Stowe/Mansfield yesterday...still good coverage on the trails and even glades and chutes on the upper mountain.

As I said, yesterday's COOP report was 51" of depth in the woods at 3,700ft.

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I wasn't paying attention and was surprised to see it in the 80s over the southern Lakes.   Kalamazoo was 83.   Meanwhile, snowing hard on the west side of the baroclinic zone -- nice gradient there. 

Very impressive temperature spread:

ia.sfc.gif

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Verbatim Euro would be another 8-10 days of little to no rain as the high blocks the weakening ULL to our south. And we are left with wx similar to earlier this week

 

 

Unsure -- again, "The Euro was insisting previously that it lifted into Canada exiting via the Lakes, and that our region would be spared much if any direct influence. Now, it is opting for the southern route ... taking it off the MA as it slowly fills. Regardless of what the 850 thermal layout is, that would likely mean a couple of days of onshore flow and potential moisture pooling."

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