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The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread


Typhoon Tip

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Cooler weather turning unsettled later in the week...nice AFD from BOX. At least there will be some stuff to watch this week.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -6 BY 12Z MON. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BUT MODEST WIND WILL LIKELY PERSIST. MIN TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S NW ZONES WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 40S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS AS WELL AS OUTER CAPE AND ACK/BID. WINDS MAY PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN NEWLY ACTIVATED GROWING SEASON IN SOME SPOTS.

MONDAY... DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TO THE MID ATLC COAST TOWARD EVENING AS TROF AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST. HOWEVER COLUMN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CU/AC DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME MOISTURE IN THE 5-10K FT LAYER. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO A COOL DAY EXPECTED WITH MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PORTIONS OF RI AND E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY * UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS WED THRU THE WEEKEND

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON FEATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST...PASSING EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION RESULTING IN A VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST WELL EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE MARITIMES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE DIURNAL WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE BIG IMPACT HERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE PORTION OF THE AREA WHOSE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.

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agree, Monday and Tuesday are going to feel great! Any long range models showing summer weather yet? Mid 80's or higher?

 

So far it doesn't look like it. Therer may be a few days that have higher humidity like yesterday, but I still don't see any prolonged heat. 

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An absolute Mother's Day Downslope Dandy San Diego Delight!!!!

 

Blue skies with temps heading into the low 70s today, crystal clear blue skies have broken out lets do 4 in a row!

 

Happy Mother's Day!

 

 

Positive Power!

 

Viva la Mother's!

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Meh to the "growing season begun".    It has if you are an idiot and 'don't get it' -- as in, can't hear the groove of the music here.  This season has had post Mem-day planting, ONLY, written all over it!  

 

I suppose plant type augments that a bit.  Snap peas and lettuces like cool soil temperatures, so perhaps ...   but these types can take a couple cold nights like that.   Even there would be dicey, though, because I don't believe "hard freeze" works for anything -- it's not impossible for several hours of upper 20s out there in rural SNE, and anyone that didn't see that as likely to occur this particular 'keep-it-cool-at-least-excuse-imaginable' type spring...well.   

 

This is an annoyingly chilly air mass for 2.5 days.  I suppose we all have our own druthers, but I'd rather we do +70/50 at this point, because all the cold does is belay things.  

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Here are the updated totals through 4 days, 1 more to add though I suspect it won't add a ton to these totals. Kudos to Joe on a great call, ~1" region wide was pretty darn good.

 

BED 0.66

BVY 0.73

BOS 1.07

MQE 0.87

LWM 0.8

EWB 1.45

OWD 1.07

PYM 1.19

TAN 0.7

 

CQX 1.18

HYA 1.26

MVY 0.91

ACK 1.63

 

FIT 1.04

ORE 0.65

CEF 0.71

ORH 0.84

 

PVD 0.78

WST 0.88

 

BDL 0.85

HFD 1.00

IJD 1.24

 

AFN 1.84 (jackpot)

 

BDR 0.99

HVN 0.85

 

Overall mean 0.996"

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Major temperature crash in progress here. My cheap backyard thermometer touched 64° F during a brief sunny interval a couple of hours ago, but we're now crashing into the upper 40s with rain showers. Meanwhile, it's still in the low 70s in the Springfield area.

 

ALY has subfreezing readings here the next 3 nights with forecast lows of 31° F, 29° F, and 31° F. I'm not sure we'll get that cold tonight as I think things will stay somewhat mixed due to clouds and wind, but a widespread freeze tomorrow night looks like a good bet for any location that radiates.

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Here are the updated totals through 4 days, 1 more to add though I suspect it won't add a ton to these totals. Kudos to Joe on a great call, ~1" region wide was pretty darn good.

BED 0.66

BVY 0.73

BOS 1.07

MQE 0.87

LWM 0.8

EWB 1.45

OWD 1.07

PYM 1.19

TAN 0.7

CQX 1.18

HYA 1.26

MVY 0.91

ACK 1.63

FIT 1.04

ORE 0.65

CEF 0.71

ORH 0.84

PVD 0.78

WST 0.88

BDL 0.85

HFD 1.00

IJD 1.24

AFN 1.84 (jackpot)

BDR 0.99

HVN 0.85

Overall mean 0.996"

Munfukndane.

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Pretty much went as expected though...after such a long dry spell it helps. BOS got an inch too which looked in doubt for eastern MA a couple days ago.

BOS is minimally subnormal for may still and down 20% for the year. Last year at this time BOS was 40% low. We're in a dry regime but not that noteworthy...yet.

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feels a little nippy here. Quite the difference between the western and the eastern areas.

50.1/46

Wow low 40s in the southern Greens and near 70 in eastern areas.

Temps have fallen into the 40s to lower 50s up and down the Berks and Greens all the way to the Canadian border. Chilly afternoon. 50/37 currently at Morrisville-Stowe.

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Are you up on WU/CWOP? If so, what's your ID?

 

No I need to get the thing to hook it up. I have the console in the kitchen and my router is in my office... I guess I'll just have to move everything.

 

WeatherLinkIP is expensive though... probably will wait to buy it a bit. I'm a little low on $$$$ right now. 

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