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The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread


Typhoon Tip

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Blue skies now breaking up, I was shocked to see these white puffy things in the sky this morning.......nice to get some humidity back in  the air this week and okx's sunny and 71 looks delicious for Friday.

 

Ground Hog Day

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Yeah. I posted a few days ago that I like the chances of that air mass bringing a potential last freeze to the typical rad spots up here. Details of course TBD.

 

 

The Euro looked like it could challenge some records with that airmass, but we are still a ways out to take the magnitude seriously. But I'd be shocked if there weren't frosts/freezes in the usual rad spots with that one.

 

 

Hints of a shift to warmer weather after that on the ensembles for the 3rd week of the month...perhaps we might get our first severe threat of the season with that type of pattern for wiz.

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Still looks like some small hailers possible Thursday!!!!!!!

Lowering freezing levels and actually modest amounts of CAPE too. BRING IT!

 

Do you think we should start a generic severe weather thread soon?

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The last 3 to 4 cycles of the operational Euro have been incrementally reducing the magnitude of the cold wave ...now passing into D7 with that frontal system.   Which, given to D7, it's probably silly to discuss the potential "magnitude" of that cold.  But I will say that when I've seen that type of model behavior in the past what more typically verifies is seasonal warmth or cool -- i.e., nothing out of the ordinary.   

 

I'm more interested in the diurnal convective instability for Thursday and Friday.. This 00z GFS graphic shows this nicely, as the preceding panel to this one goes from nil to fairly robust signal by 00z Friday (same for Friday late day...).  > .25" is not huge, granted, but given to the GFS' mesh at this time range and that these are "regional" values, that's an interesting signal for diurnal thunder.

 

gfs_namer_096_1000_500_thick.gif

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I think the last 2 euro op runs have been the coldest yet?

I just did a comparison of the last 3 and the areal region of sub 0C 850s was smaller on each one.   There could be other intervals that I didn't review -- sure. 

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I pulled some quick 2-meter temperature forecasts for BDL and NYC and each of the last three runs has trended cooler. 

 

 

It's interesting that it would back off aloft but dig in below... Could be a resolution issue.    

 

Of course, the freebies at PSU are probably not the best product to use lol

 

Nice burgeoning warm signal there after though.   

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Maybe with less of a wind gradient/influence, there's less CAA coming in aloft, but lighter winds near the surface could allow for more radiational cooling?

Just a wild guess, didn't actually pull wind numbers.

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It's interesting that it would back off aloft but dig in below... Could be a resolution issue.

Of course, the freebies at PSU are probably not the best product to use lol

Nice burgeoning warm signal there after though.

I thought the 850s looked impressive at 174h...-8C into NNE and -4C to LI. The sfc ridge axis is still to our west though so timing the calm winds with the overnight hours may be a wildcard. We'll see...looks like a nice cP airmass regardless.
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I thought the 850s looked impressive at 174h...-8C into NNE and -4C to LI. The sfc ridge axis is still to our west though so timing the calm winds with the overnight hours may be a wildcard. We'll see...looks like a nice cP airmass regardless.

 

Again, the freebies are probably not the best product but fwiw the -4C was not penetrating as far S looking at those charts as the preceding runs -- appears faster to pull out the air mass, too.   

 

Whatever... I just get the hunch that's 63F for an afternoon then recovering fairly quickly there after.  

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