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The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread


Typhoon Tip

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Floyd was in Sept 99 right?

Yes. That storm had a fairly similar track to Irene, but it crossed more land over North Carolina, which was one factor in the weakening. I remember that Hurricane Warnings were posted up to New England, but the storm was only a minimal Tropical Storm up in these parts. A ton of rain though...

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We've had some quasi BD type resurgent winds pulses here and there, but this late Thursday will be a more bona fide backdoor front that means business.  

 

Suspect winds that are either feebly on shore, will burst forth in shorter order, and may actually arrive with streets of strata. 

 

Depending on the timing of the BD will determine the magnitude of temperature correction -- the speedier NAM brings the boundary through NE zones by 5 or 6pm.  If that were to transpire, you'd be talking 75 to 48 in a matter of an hour throughout the Merrimack Valley area.  The Euro was aggressive with the retrograding upper low and respects its presence with the structure of it barometric layout, but the time interval/availability of the product doesn't allow me to assess the timing as finite as the America products,  of course.  But given to its overall aggressive posture, cold wedge from the NE will undercut this week's relative balm with business late Thursday into Fri AM.  

 

Friday may see highs in the upper 40s to low 50s despite ample sun, particularly for coastal Mass/NH.   

 

For those interested in the purer Meteorology of the scenario, the satellite loops will be really interesting as the deep layer vortex severs over the D. Straights and then plummets SSW toward the NE Coast, bringing the boundary/packet of synoptic cold with it.  

 

Should be short duration, with perhaps 10F recovery on Saturday and another 5 on top of that for Sunday.  

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Will any unlocked screen doors be blown open upon passage in coastal areas?

 

 

You can laugh but these can be a risk to small craft marine interest.  They can arrive with a sudden jolt.  I have seen winds at Logan go from WNW at 6kts, to NE at 30kt almost immediately.   

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I wish I knew why the operational GFS is so beady-eye hell-bent on drilling the next ice age in and canceling the warm season in its extended on every single run, when no other guidance is doing that.   Run after run, it won't give up -- enough to make me think the modelers cheat for its short comings, and put foundation equations to force +PNAP pattern in the absence of other forcing...  It's like it starts out seeing what the other model types see, then as soon as it's mesh widens just a teensy bit it rushes to -3SD thickness.

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I think '07 was quite a bit colder than this April, and this April will still finish nearly a degree above normal at BOS.

 

 

Yeah April 2007 was -3.0 at BOS and also April 2003 was cold at -3.7 departure. But this is going to be the 6th in a row above normal. BOS also had 6 above normal Aprils from 1976-1981. They have never had 7 in a row above normal.

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Yeah Ginx got it on twitter where someone posted it. Same person who Kevin's corrected on twitter before. lol

 

I'm not sure if they were quoting some other stat or whatever. But it was definitely not close. We've had warm Aprils recently.

 

The cold will come again though despite LL's "new climate norm" assertions that we only have above normal temps now. BOS has had 4 months tie or break their coldest months on record since 1989. Most recently June 2009 tying 1982 for coldest June on record at Logan airport. January 2004 was the coldest January on record and of course July 1992 and December 1989. Not as easy to get as the good ol' days of the 1960s/1970s, but they will come again.

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