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The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread


Typhoon Tip

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@JimCantore: Via @JenCarfagno @NWSLittleRock

1st time in AR history, snow has fallen in May. Sleet/snow at Highfill, Fayetteville, and Rogers airports.

 

Too bad they don't put a statement on their website. 

 

I saw MCI have snow. That's crazy.

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You guys are turning this into a Tweetisphere ...   

 

There is another way it may rain other than the attenuating closed low moving up the coast.  GFS uses that as a real moisture transport, such that even though the dynamics wane out and may not produce much by the time the system makes its closest pass, in its wake there is rich theta-e left over in the column from NJ to MN.  We end up convectively unstable with convective QPF in the area.   Deluges there ...   

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You guys are turning this into a Tweetisphere ...

There is another way it may rain other than the attenuating closed low moving up the coast. GFS uses that as a real moisture transport, such that even though the dynamics wane out and may not produce much by the time the system makes its closest pass, in its wake there is rich theta-e left over in the column from NJ to MN. We end up convectively unstable with convective QPF in the area. Deluges there ...

I don't think anyone would argue with high dews and storms later next week. Euro sort of simulates that idea as well
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Interesting little meso low near Cape Canaveral. WInds east 29G45 right now. 

 

 

I was watching that thing come out of the Gulf .. not entirely convinced of it's purer baroclinic thermodynamics;  buy in my laziness (shame on me) I failed to check the phase diagram, and am still being lazy.  

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You can really see the seasonality of snowing past May 1 in the Plains... The p-types are eroding inwards from the sides;  it's been doing that over that last few days, too.   

 

Rain or snow, they need it out there.  It would actually be nice if the trough retrograded some, such that snow would fall on the aquifer water shed (eastern Front Range), while bands of deep convection would stripe the heart of the drought.   There are actually some hints in the extended operational models for structure of that nature. 

 

Meanwhile, quite the Red Block structure over the western Atlantic Basin this morning. Our little closed low tiger that dragged the BD down yesterday is merging in with perhaps 3 other vorticity maxima, and they Fuji Wara around a common axis SSE of NS, while a small ridge node is formulating latitudinal.   That's going to pretty much train wreck the flow everywhere east of the Missisippi until IT decides to break down. 

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You can really see the seasonality of snowing past May 1 in the Plains... The p-types are eroding inwards from the sides; it's been doing that over that last few days, too.

Rain or snow, they need it out there. It would actually be nice if the trough retrograded some, such that snow would fall on the aquifer water shed (eastern Front Range), while bands of deep convection would stripe the heart of the drought. There are actually some hints in the extended operational models for structure of that nature.

Meanwhile, quite the Red Block structure over the western Atlantic Basin this morning. Our little closed low tiger that dragged the BD down yesterday is merging in with perhaps 3 other vorticity maxima, and they Fuji Wara around a common axis SSE of NS, while a small ridge node is formulating latitudinal. That's going to pretty much train wreck the flow everywhere east of the Missisippi until IT decides to break down.

Yes. Beware of any Ginx like forecasts of soaking beneficial drought breaking rains in NEW Eng next week
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Yes. Beware of any Ginx like forecasts of soaking beneficial drought breaking rains in NEW Eng next week

 

 

The modeling is breaking it down by a day and half or so, out, actually ... but yeah, sometimes they can be a bit aggressive when it comes to breaking down stable blocking events.  We'll see, but next weekend is a long time out; it would be surprising to say the least if that blocking was still out there.   Next weekends rains are a crappes shoot at this range, but honestly ... any dryness that we've "suffered" appears related to noise in the field and not really endemic to a drought-like pattern.   The spring Omega blocks are common; combining that with the fact that it is typical to have low DPs in March and April ... as the first warm air arrives, are happenstance creating that, but is is more affect than effect.   

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The modeling is breaking it down by a day and half or so, out, actually ... but yeah, sometimes they can be a bit aggressive when it comes to breaking down stable blocking events.  We'll see, but next weekend is a long time out; it would be surprising to say the least if that blocking was still out there.   Next weekends rains are a crappes shoot at this range, but honestly ... any dryness that we've "suffered" appears related to noise in the field and not really endemic to a drought-like pattern.   The spring Omega blocks are common; combining that with the fact that it is typical to have low DPs in March and April ... as the first warm air arrives, are happenstance creating that, but is is more affect than effect.   

Its Wednesday not next weekend according to all models well KFAIL aside. But yea the hyperbole is all he has.

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Its Wednesday not next weekend according to all models well KFAIL aside. But yea the hyperbole is all he has.

 

 

Agree with that point -- but I was/am speaking more to what I believe could be a favorable environment for diurnal activity after this puppy fills and moves on by...

 

RE that:  I think the trend is certainly there to hold onto a little more strength as it lifts up the coast.   That is, ....as modeled for now.  The 00z Euro actually had a west-east oriented, 700 and 850mb level collocated bands of more than 70% RH, indicative of [probably] a period of light to moderate rain pushing through the breadth of the region.  

 

That would certainly help this devastating razor thin top soil moisture deficit ....   word!

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1/4-1/2 every two weeks for your beloved fescue is all you need.. Like Will said, and him I trust, much wetter pattern coming up. I fail to see what the big deal is, dry periods are NBD

 

Had 0.47" two weeks ago today, but only 0.05" since (and that precip map is pretty stingy for Maine.)  Groundwater won't become an issue unless this pattern were to dominate at least thru the solstice, but the top layer is sure dry.

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It's funny what Steve hypes. He gets excited about rain events where the Pawcatuck comes 2 feet above flood stage that no one cares about, yet when we have region wide dry/ burgeoning droughts that effect flora, wildlife, irrigation, agriculture and homeowners he acts like everything is fine.

 

Egregious exaggeration 

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It's funny what Steve hypes. He gets excited about rain events where the Pawcatuck comes 2 feet above flood stage that no one cares about, yet when we have region wide dry/ burgeoning droughts that effect flora, wildlife, irrigation, agriculture and homeowners he acts like everything is fine.

 

 

Floods are actually somewhat dangerous in portions of SNE...whereas droughts are not. It might mean you actually have to look at a few brown spots on your lawn or bother to water more frequently, but we don't get life altering droughts around here. Floods are a different story.

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