The 'oh, who cares' 1st half of May boring ass pattern banter thread

[Typhoon Tip]

Maybe the potential Plains snow (yet again) could be interesting, but for us, .... it's actually quite an interesting dice-roll to get an omega blocking ridge node to sit directly over us like that.  Normally New England sets closer in proximity to the book-ending troughs, and suffers for it, but it appears the models really have converged on the anomaly.  

 

It actually begins sort of in the nearer term, as the NAM brings a QPF wall to NYC and then slams it to a halt before disintegrating it and it's parental dynamics.  In the wake, ... the early middle range guidance agree, and sees the ridge axis build just west of us initially, but it slips ESE slowly over perhaps 4 or 5 days, featuring dailies in the high 60/s 70s away from any afternoon marine, and nights above freezing (at last).  That should get even the els greening.  

 

The extended is as usual clueless, but the Oper. Euro, once it lifts the Plains cold rain/spring snow out, the westerlies are re-positioned along the Can/U.S. border.  Almost looks like that's really when the model thinks the end of the cold season has taken place.  Time will tell.   

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually, does anyone have access to the GFSX synoptic charts ?   I suppose I'll google it.   But the 00z MOS product blew up the temperatures for D 6 and 7, by approaching 10 over climo, which is tough to do at that range.  So I am wondering what it must have for the overall circulation appeal.  It has 73 for next weekend's days at FIT!   Climo is 64.  

[Typhoon Tip]

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE POTENT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE COUNTRY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING FRONT...AND SPC HAS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THEIR DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK. AS
THE BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN AND TAPS INTO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF GULF
MOISTURE LATE THIS WEEK...SOME HEAVIER AND MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES COULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAY SNOWS
TO THE NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BUT
THEN SHOULD BE BLOCKED FROM ANY PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CERTAINLY THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE
HIGH.

TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN THE
ROCKIES AND APPALACHIANS...BUT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN U.S. UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

 

 

Yup...  Rare circumstance that provides New England with unreal spring weather... I just hope this doesn't all go to pot in the 2nd half of May... 

[TWCCraig]

Actually, does anyone have access to the GFSX synoptic charts ?   I suppose I'll google it.   But the 00z MOS product blew up the temperatures for D 6 and 7, by approaching 10 over climo, which is tough to do at that range.  So I am wondering what it must have for the overall circulation appeal.  It has 73 for next weekend's days at FIT!   Climo is 64.  

 

The 12z cycle blows those chances away with a closed H5 low and vort. max close to the coast as it moves down from the Canadian maritimes. Odd feature which the Euro also had though further east.

[Typhoon Tip]

The 12z cycle blows those chances away with a closed H5 low and vort. max close to the coast as it moves down from the Canadian maritimes. Odd feature which the Euro also had though further east.

 

Yeah, I saw that ... not sure I buy it.  It's an abrupt introduction into the guidance, and it is odd in the way it drills that feature from S of Greenland that far, that quickly WSW across the N Atlantic Basin.  It's D5+ so it just as likely that feature will be less dramatic in the next cycle.  It's interesting, though...  but features don't tend to retrograde quite that violently -- kind of silly looking actually.  

[dendrite]

Definitely a slightly cooler look on the euro for late week into the weekend versus the previous run.

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting feature S of the Maritimes being analyzed by HPC.   Warm front moving SW over the Ocean...

 

[Typhoon Tip]

NAM did very well in depicting inclemency in NYC, while eastern NE is protected by ridging...  QPF wall is verifying.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sunny warm very dry, 63.4 on the hilltop

[Typhoon Tip]

Sunny warm very dry, 63.4 on the hilltop

 

It's not likely to get even as far NE as where you are.. stubborn ridge

[Quincy]

A retrograding feature may try to clip eastern sections with some clouds; cooler temperatures by the end of the week. Will be interesting to see if this trends further west at all.

[Typhoon Tip]

A retrograding feature may try to clip eastern sections with some clouds; cooler temperatures by the end of the week. Will be interesting to see if this trends further west at all.

 

That is an interesting feature.  The guidance' have been wavering about on how far west it gets on it's retrogressive dive -- the whole thing looks dubious, but it is what it is...  The 12z GFS would almost have to throw a back door or even side door boundary onto the CP on Friday.  

[Mr Torchey]

Had a brief shower early this morning, T on the day overcast since really wished it would have rained.

[Brian5671]

Had a brief shower early this morning, T on the day overcast since really wished it would have rained.

another batch trying to move in...let's hope it gets here

[Quincy]

Didn't want to post this in the "national" tropical thread, as it fits better here.

 

Each landfalling southern New England hurricane (also including Irene and Sandy to the mix) has passed between a 5° cubic box between 22°-27°N and 71°-76°W: 

Courtesy: Unisys for the track information. Photoshop was used to overlay the tracks.

 

This will be pretty cool to look at in the future with any "threats" up in these parts.

[Brian5671]

Great find Quincy...interesting indeed

[ineedsnow]

would love to make it 3 years in a row with a threat as long as no lives are lost

Didn't want to post this in the "national" tropical thread, as it fits better here.

 

Each landfalling southern New England hurricane (also including Irene and Sandy to the mix) has passed between a 5° cubic box between 22°-27°N and 71°-76°W: 

cube.png

Courtesy: Unisys for the track information. Photoshop was used to overlay the tracks.

 

This will be pretty cool to look at in the future with any "threats" up in these parts.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully there's at least two that LF here this season. Lets get those SST's up

[Brian5671]

maybe this box can be used to cull the weenieism that erupts when there's a storm that everyone else knows has no chance of striking SNE....(which is most of them)

[ineedsnow]

ill be in florida for the last week of July maybe ill get lucky and be able to see what a real hurricane is like but doubtful 

[Quincy]

maybe this box can be used to cull the weenieism that erupts when there's a storm that everyone else knows has no change of striking SNE....(which is most of them)

This. Almost every season, some computer model runs, whether it be the GFS, GFDL or NAM, show a very unlikely tracking bringing a storm into New England. We'll have to use this in the future, but also note that MANY storms have passed through that box and still made a wide right turn OR went into FL/GOM/Southeast.

 

Here's a look at select tropical system tracks from 1952-1955...could we be in another four year span like that?

[Damage In Tolland]

What a pattern thru day 10 on the Euro..Wow

[Quincy]

April 1985 was the driest April on record for Stratford, Conn.

April 1999 was the driest April on record for Windsor Locks, Conn.

 

Any guesses as to what happened both of those years in September?

[Typhoon Tip]

What a pattern thru day 10 on the Euro..Wow

 

Can you say phase discrepancy ?

 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

This. Almost every season, some computer model runs, whether it be the GFS, GFDL or NAM, show a very unlikely tracking bringing a storm into New England. We'll have to use this in the future, but also note that MANY storms have passed through that box and still made a wide right turn OR went into FL/GOM/Southeast.

Here's a look at all tropical system tracks between 1952 and 1955...could we be in another four year span like that?

hurricaneTracks.png

These posts have me so incredibly excited for hurricane season. Classes end in a couple days and I'm off til September, hopefully it's an over the top active season, preferably without so many fish duds.

[weatherMA]

I'll be on a cruise in the Bahamas mid-August lol.

[free_man]

Two hurricane fails

April 1985 was the driest April on record for Stratford, Conn.

April 1999 was the driest April on record for Windsor Locks, Conn.

 

Any guesses as to what happened both of those years in September?

[free_man]

These posts have me so incredibly excited for hurricane season. Classes end in a couple days and I'm off til September, hopefully it's an over the top active season, preferably without so many fish duds.

No doubt, hopefully at least two or three majors striking the coast with catastrophic damage.

[CoastalWx]

Two hurricane fails

Gloria was pretty decent.

[Damage In Tolland]

Man inland FTW the next 7