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Early May Cutoff Low


Hoosier

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Hasn't every model been at odds with each other? Granted I haven't been paying close attention. Such an anomalous system...

Yeah, been a case of model mayhem. Trying to guess where the cutoff will be at any point beyond 3 days is difficult.

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Saints-

 

I was looking at the wrong euro run (12z yesterday)...  0z looks a little colder for us then the 12z... i was trying to figure out why the NWS was so low on their temps this week, but i guess with all the clouds/rain around...temps will struggle.  oh well..lets just get through it...and on to the next warm spell.

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I guess this goes here, but Winter Storm Warnings up for parts of MN and WI, including MSP. 

 

Largest May snowfall on record for Minneapolis:

3.0" on May 20, 1892, May 1, 1935, and May 11-12, 1946

 

Warning text for them has a storm total of 6-9", which of course would blow past the old record.

 

Posted for historical purposes:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...RARE MAY SNOW STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL IOWA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT...WORKING WITHIN A STRONG SURGE OF
INCOMING COLDER AIR TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE REGION...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT APPROXIMATELY
WITHIN 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM RICE LAKE WI THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO MANKATO TO BLUE EARTH. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
9 INCHES WITHIN THIS AREA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG A LINE FROM MORA TO BUFFALO TO
REDWOOD FALLS IN MINNESOTA AND ALSO FROM CORNELL TO EAU CLAIRE TO
DURAND IN WISCONSIN.

MNZ053-060>063-067>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>025-
011800-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0011.130501T2000Z-130503T0000Z/
CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-
DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CENTER CITY...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...
ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...
BURNSVILLE...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...
RED WING...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...
BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...
BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...
PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE
354 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY.

* TIMING: RAIN THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY MID
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE IN PERIODIC BANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION: 6 TO 9 INCHES.

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After days of showing a closed low drifting NE, the 0z Euro splits the energy, adding to the uncertainly.

ecmwfUS_500_spd_096.gif

Is the King on crack?

12z GFS not doing the split and keeping it south. It's been reasonably consistent with that so I'd probably take the Euro with a grain of salt unless it repeats its solution for another run or two.

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I guess this goes here, but Winter Storm Warnings up for parts of MN and WI, including MSP. 

 

Largest May snowfall on record for Minneapolis:

3.0" on May 20, 1892, May 1, 1935, and May 11-12, 1946

 

Warning text for them has a storm total of 6-9", which of course would blow past the old record.

 

Posted for historical purposes:

 

 

 

 

 

That measly 3" record in MSP really stood out to me in your May snow thread as one to be very vulnerable to be broken and what better yr than this one.

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Just looking around at some areas out west, Wichita has never recorded measurable snow in the month of May (records go back to the late 1800s). The record for latest measurable snow was just set on April 23 of this year when 0.2" fell.

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12z GGEM meanders the low around the Lakes...also looks like it is slower to modify the cold core.

 

here's the 48 hr snowfall liquid-equivalent total map from the canadian regional model, for reference.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/regional/2013050112/2013050112_054_R1_centrecan_I_QPFTYPES_sn_048.png

 

a very messy time for sure. and for the record attm, it's just overcast attm in the north end of st paul. but we had wet snow earlier.

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