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Early May Cutoff Low


Hoosier

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Well, if we do indeed get a snowstorm, at least the good thing is that the trees have barely started leafing out, hence lowering the threats of widespread power outages.  I'm not saying that power outages won't occur since they will but not in the magnitude as in the Halloween 2011 blizzard in New England where trees still had their leafs.

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24 inches?  Come on... is that even possible this time of year?  Anyone have any cases where even a foot has fallen at that time period? 

 

No way...i'll say right if i see ONE flake i'll be amazed (famous last words)... :)

 

Oh...and I love snow...especially in May...about as Saukville like 40F in July.

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24 inches?  Come on... is that even possible this time of year?  Anyone have any cases where even a foot has fallen at that time period? 

 

No way...i'll say right if i see ONE flake i'll be amazed (famous last words)... :)

 

Oh...and I love snow...especially in May...about as Saukville like 40F in July.

 

May 27-29, 1947 in Harrison Nebraska where they got 12 inches of cement.

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24 inches?  Come on... is that even possible this time of year?  Anyone have any cases where even a foot has fallen at that time period? 

 

No way...i'll say right if i see ONE flake i'll be amazed (famous last words)... :)

 

Oh...and I love snow...especially in May...about as Saukville like 40F in July.

 

22.4" on May 9-10, 1990 at Marquette...on 2.89" liquid.

 

10.0" on May 3, 1929 at South Bend. 

 

That's all I got, for the Midwest. I'm sure there are some non-first order sites that have done it though. Maybe.

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Most of those cases are basically useless...they probably melted in an hour...still looking like someone will get something, but who knows.  Next week sucks no matter what.

 

 

Poor mans fertilizer!

 

Dr. John Avers, a professor at the University of New Hampshire

 

says

 

Snow contains nutrients and also a lot of moisture. And if that snow falls on ground that's not frozen, as it would be in late spring, then the nutrients and moisture in that snow can penetrate into the soil and actually do some good for the plants that will grow in that soil later on in the year.

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Poor mans fertilizer!

 

Dr. John Avers, a professor at the University of New Hampshire

 

says

 

Snow contains nutrients and also a lot of moisture. And if that snow falls on ground that's not frozen, as it would be in late spring, then the nutrients and moisture in that snow can penetrate into the soil and actually do some good for the plants that will grow in that soil later on in the year.

 

Saw several lawn care companies around here fertilizing right before the March 24-25 storm. Maybe that was the thought... 

 

Grass sure is lush and green here right now, though I'm sure the 8"+ of rain in April has helped. :D

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Most of those cases are basically useless...they probably melted in an hour...still looking like someone will get something, but who knows.  Next week sucks no matter what.

 

And with that, a total meltdown watch has been issued. If the future conditions warrant, warnings may be needed.

 

:lol: 

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Check out the chilly 850's behind the storm. Those are impressive in and of themselves..

namUS_850_temp_084.gif

0C deep into Texas...impressive.

Plenty that can go wrong but there's at least some potential for an extraordinary event. Very interested in this even though it looks like the real wintry fun will be to the west.

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I know to take this with a grain of salt. But late in the week, at least with the 12Z models, there is a bit of a screwy possibility, and nothing like the joke of a DGEX. The models seemed to be struggling with the possibility of some type of weak disturbance down in the northern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian being the strongest with that gulf disturbance, actually unifying that disturbance with the cut-off and establishing a super-atlantic feed. But the GFS was a lot more linear with the upper-air cut-off zone and basically disregards the GOM; and the Euro makes more of a pure cut-off low by 120-144 with the GOM disturbance making a bit of a dent but overall still keeping things separate.

 

But in checking the 00Z GFS, total flip-flop in the 108-132 (similar timeframe) with the cut-off at lower and upper levels, almost representing something very similar to the Euro. Odds of a flip by the Euro and/or the Canadian when it comes out....

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I know to take this with a grain of salt. But late in the week, at least with the 12Z models, there is a bit of a screwy possibility, and nothing like the joke of a DGEX. The models seemed to be struggling with the possibility of some type of weak disturbance down in the northern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian being the strongest with that gulf disturbance, actually unifying that disturbance with the cut-off and establishing a super-atlantic feed. But the GFS was a lot more linear with the upper-air cut-off zone and basically disregards the GOM; and the Euro makes more of a pure cut-off low by 120-144 with the GOM disturbance making a bit of a dent but overall still keeping things separate.

But in checking the 00Z GFS, total flip-flop in the 108-132 (similar timeframe) with the cut-off at lower and upper levels, almost representing something very similar to the Euro. Odds of a flip by the Euro and/or the Canadian when it comes out....

Good observation. Almost seems like subtropical development being hinted at somewhere around Florida. It's easy to overlook the possibility with it being out of season but just another thing to watch.

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Saw several lawn care companies around here fertilizing right before the March 24-25 storm. Maybe that was the thought... 

 

Grass sure is lush and green here right now, though I'm sure the 8"+ of rain in April has helped. :D

My freaking lawn is growing like a weed right now.  Just need it to be dry for a few days, so I can move it.  Otherwise it could quickly become a jungle.. :lol:

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From one of our old friends :whistle: ---This is from Agrimoney.com

 

 

'Considerably wetter'

David Tolleris at WxRisk.com outlined the Midwest weather outlook so: "The uncertainty in the weather models at the end of last week with regard to which areas were going to see rain and which ones were not is no longer an issue.

"The European and the GFS models are in very strong agreement that a prolonged major rain event is likely to affect most of the Midwest, as well as the eastern portions of the central Plains over the next several days.

"The coverage is around 75% over these areas and the rainfall amounts range from 1-4 inches, 25 -100mm."

"All the forecast are now considerably wetter especially for the western Corn Belt."

And it looks like rain could dog farmers next week too, with Mr Tolleris calling the rain system a "long duration event".

 

 

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Models continue to advertise snow with this system, but the Iowa nws offices are barely mentioning it in their discussions.

 

The latest Euro is a nice change.  It has a much briefer stay for this cutoff compared to earlier runs.  After three days it shoots up into Canada and in its wake is a long stretch of warmth for the midwest.  I hope this run wasn't just a temporary blip.

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Models continue to advertise snow with this system, but the Iowa nws offices are barely mentioning it in their discussions.

 

The latest Euro is a nice change.  It has a much briefer stay for this cutoff compared to earlier runs.  After three days it shoots up into Canada and in its wake is a long stretch of warmth for the midwest.  I hope this run wasn't just a temporary blip.

Basically best case scenario would be the EURO.  At least the weekend is decent

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Models continue to advertise snow with this system, but the Iowa nws offices are barely mentioning it in their discussions.

The latest Euro is a nice change. It has a much briefer stay for this cutoff compared to earlier runs. After three days it shoots up into Canada and in its wake is a long stretch of warmth for the midwest. I hope this run wasn't just a temporary blip.

Probably being careful due to the rarity, but even if you don't believe the insane amounts due to melting/compaction, or whatever, there are pretty good multi model signal of a very rare/significant snow event. Maybe there will be some movement toward more bullish wording in the next day or two if these runs maintain the general idea.

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