BeastFromTheEast Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Euro is showing insane amounts of the White Stuff over IA. Odds looking up for a highly anomalous May snow-storm somewhere across the region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Well, if we do indeed get a snowstorm, at least the good thing is that the trees have barely started leafing out, hence lowering the threats of widespread power outages. I'm not saying that power outages won't occur since they will but not in the magnitude as in the Halloween 2011 blizzard in New England where trees still had their leafs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Do people even use the DGEX anymore? Or is it just the "freak misfit" of the models? >>Implying it was legitimately used at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 I think the snow totals will be no where close to model out put. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 40N daily solar for today. Amazing if snow falls, even at night it's an amazing thing. http://www.date-and-time.net/?calculate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 24 inches? Come on... is that even possible this time of year? Anyone have any cases where even a foot has fallen at that time period? No way...i'll say right if i see ONE flake i'll be amazed (famous last words)... Oh...and I love snow...especially in May...about as Saukville like 40F in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 24 inches? Come on... is that even possible this time of year? Anyone have any cases where even a foot has fallen at that time period? No way...i'll say right if i see ONE flake i'll be amazed (famous last words)... Oh...and I love snow...especially in May...about as Saukville like 40F in July. May 27-29, 1947 in Harrison Nebraska where they got 12 inches of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 In La Crosse there has been 6 cases of snow in May...the most being 6.6 inches in 1935 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 24 inches? Come on... is that even possible this time of year? Anyone have any cases where even a foot has fallen at that time period? No way...i'll say right if i see ONE flake i'll be amazed (famous last words)... Oh...and I love snow...especially in May...about as Saukville like 40F in July. 22.4" on May 9-10, 1990 at Marquette...on 2.89" liquid. 10.0" on May 3, 1929 at South Bend. That's all I got, for the Midwest. I'm sure there are some non-first order sites that have done it though. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 In La Crosse there has been 6 cases of snow in May...the most being 6.6 inches in 1935 I got 8 Mays with measurable snows. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40101-historic-may-monthly-snowfall-totals/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Most of those cases are basically useless...they probably melted in an hour...still looking like someone will get something, but who knows. Next week sucks no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Most of those cases are basically useless...they probably melted in an hour...still looking like someone will get something, but who knows. Next week sucks no matter what. Yeah, like the first few days of May 2005 although it was mostly dry rather than wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Probably the only chance for significant accumulation would be if this system lays down the snow at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Most of those cases are basically useless...they probably melted in an hour...still looking like someone will get something, but who knows. Next week sucks no matter what. Poor mans fertilizer! Dr. John Avers, a professor at the University of New Hampshire says Snow contains nutrients and also a lot of moisture. And if that snow falls on ground that's not frozen, as it would be in late spring, then the nutrients and moisture in that snow can penetrate into the soil and actually do some good for the plants that will grow in that soil later on in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Poor mans fertilizer! Dr. John Avers, a professor at the University of New Hampshire says Snow contains nutrients and also a lot of moisture. And if that snow falls on ground that's not frozen, as it would be in late spring, then the nutrients and moisture in that snow can penetrate into the soil and actually do some good for the plants that will grow in that soil later on in the year. Saw several lawn care companies around here fertilizing right before the March 24-25 storm. Maybe that was the thought... Grass sure is lush and green here right now, though I'm sure the 8"+ of rain in April has helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Most of those cases are basically useless...they probably melted in an hour...still looking like someone will get something, but who knows. Next week sucks no matter what. And with that, a total meltdown watch has been issued. If the future conditions warrant, warnings may be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 29, 2013 Author Share Posted April 29, 2013 I think the snow totals will be no where close to model out put. We will see. Something to keep in mind with it being May is that there could be a big discrepancy between what falls and what stays on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 29, 2013 Author Share Posted April 29, 2013 It's the NAM so it's probably not worth much discussion but wow is it amplified. There's something a little strange about seeing a massive 1040+ high moving into the US in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 It's the NAM so it's probably not worth much discussion but wow is it amplified. There's something a little strange about seeing a massive 1040+ high moving into the US in May. Check out the chilly 850's behind the storm. Those are impressive in and of themselves.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 29, 2013 Author Share Posted April 29, 2013 Check out the chilly 850's behind the storm. Those are impressive in and of themselves.. 0C deep into Texas...impressive. Plenty that can go wrong but there's at least some potential for an extraordinary event. Very interested in this even though it looks like the real wintry fun will be to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 I know to take this with a grain of salt. But late in the week, at least with the 12Z models, there is a bit of a screwy possibility, and nothing like the joke of a DGEX. The models seemed to be struggling with the possibility of some type of weak disturbance down in the northern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian being the strongest with that gulf disturbance, actually unifying that disturbance with the cut-off and establishing a super-atlantic feed. But the GFS was a lot more linear with the upper-air cut-off zone and basically disregards the GOM; and the Euro makes more of a pure cut-off low by 120-144 with the GOM disturbance making a bit of a dent but overall still keeping things separate. But in checking the 00Z GFS, total flip-flop in the 108-132 (similar timeframe) with the cut-off at lower and upper levels, almost representing something very similar to the Euro. Odds of a flip by the Euro and/or the Canadian when it comes out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 29, 2013 Author Share Posted April 29, 2013 I know to take this with a grain of salt. But late in the week, at least with the 12Z models, there is a bit of a screwy possibility, and nothing like the joke of a DGEX. The models seemed to be struggling with the possibility of some type of weak disturbance down in the northern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian being the strongest with that gulf disturbance, actually unifying that disturbance with the cut-off and establishing a super-atlantic feed. But the GFS was a lot more linear with the upper-air cut-off zone and basically disregards the GOM; and the Euro makes more of a pure cut-off low by 120-144 with the GOM disturbance making a bit of a dent but overall still keeping things separate. But in checking the 00Z GFS, total flip-flop in the 108-132 (similar timeframe) with the cut-off at lower and upper levels, almost representing something very similar to the Euro. Odds of a flip by the Euro and/or the Canadian when it comes out.... Good observation. Almost seems like subtropical development being hinted at somewhere around Florida. It's easy to overlook the possibility with it being out of season but just another thing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Saw several lawn care companies around here fertilizing right before the March 24-25 storm. Maybe that was the thought... Grass sure is lush and green here right now, though I'm sure the 8"+ of rain in April has helped. My freaking lawn is growing like a weed right now. Just need it to be dry for a few days, so I can move it. Otherwise it could quickly become a jungle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 From one of our old friends ---This is from Agrimoney.com 'Considerably wetter' David Tolleris at WxRisk.com outlined the Midwest weather outlook so: "The uncertainty in the weather models at the end of last week with regard to which areas were going to see rain and which ones were not is no longer an issue. "The European and the GFS models are in very strong agreement that a prolonged major rain event is likely to affect most of the Midwest, as well as the eastern portions of the central Plains over the next several days. "The coverage is around 75% over these areas and the rainfall amounts range from 1-4 inches, 25 -100mm." "All the forecast are now considerably wetter especially for the western Corn Belt." And it looks like rain could dog farmers next week too, with Mr Tolleris calling the rain system a "long duration event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 No idea what will fall from the sky but most models are showing lots and lots of moisture around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Models continue to advertise snow with this system, but the Iowa nws offices are barely mentioning it in their discussions. The latest Euro is a nice change. It has a much briefer stay for this cutoff compared to earlier runs. After three days it shoots up into Canada and in its wake is a long stretch of warmth for the midwest. I hope this run wasn't just a temporary blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Models continue to advertise snow with this system, but the Iowa nws offices are barely mentioning it in their discussions. The latest Euro is a nice change. It has a much briefer stay for this cutoff compared to earlier runs. After three days it shoots up into Canada and in its wake is a long stretch of warmth for the midwest. I hope this run wasn't just a temporary blip. Basically best case scenario would be the EURO. At least the weekend is decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 LOL got to love the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 29, 2013 Author Share Posted April 29, 2013 LOL got to love the NAM A lot of that heavy band in WI/IA/MN looks like snow on that run, and it's still snowing at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 29, 2013 Author Share Posted April 29, 2013 Models continue to advertise snow with this system, but the Iowa nws offices are barely mentioning it in their discussions. The latest Euro is a nice change. It has a much briefer stay for this cutoff compared to earlier runs. After three days it shoots up into Canada and in its wake is a long stretch of warmth for the midwest. I hope this run wasn't just a temporary blip. Probably being careful due to the rarity, but even if you don't believe the insane amounts due to melting/compaction, or whatever, there are pretty good multi model signal of a very rare/significant snow event. Maybe there will be some movement toward more bullish wording in the next day or two if these runs maintain the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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