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Southern/Central Plains Obs and Short Term Discussions


OKpowdah

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Here's the footage my wife and I got of the incredible SD supercell on 5/25/2013.  We followed it from Sturgis until it died near Wall.  Some good hail footage, a wall cloud/funnel that almost went down.  And some of the coolest timelapse I've ever scored yet.  This was the most amazing non-tornadic storm I've ever seen.

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

The SPC put out a moderate risk today for southern South Dakota, due to high CAPE and strong shear profiles expected there. The NAM shows pretty high storm-relative helicity for this area tonight, up to 300 m2/s2. It would appear that deep layer shear may be around 55 knots, so I am impressed by shear. I am not entirely convinced about convective coverage there.

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The SPC put out a moderate risk today for southern South Dakota, due to high CAPE and strong shear profiles expected there. The NAM shows pretty high storm-relative helicity for this area tonight, up to 300 m2/s2. It would appear that deep layer shear may be around 55 knots, so I am impressed by shear. I am not entirely convinced about convective coverage there.

0100Z outlook no longer has moderate risk, looks like the wind threat is still there, but slightly lower than forecasted.

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Tornado watch issued for E NE and W IA until 10 PM.

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 313   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   340 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      EXTREME WESTERN IOWA     EASTERN NEBRASKA   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL     1000 PM CDT.   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE     SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER       POSSIBLE     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF   NORFOLK NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN NEBRASKA.  FOR   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.   &&   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS IN S CENTRAL NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD   NEWD TOWARD NE NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT.  THE ENVIRONMENT   FROM THE TRIPLE POINT SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB IS CHARACTERIZED BY   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES   APPROACHING 90 F FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.    MEANWHILE...THE OAX VWP SHOWS A RELATIVELY LARGE CLOCKWISE TURNING   HODOGRAPH...WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN   EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 300 M2/S2...MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG...AND MLLCL   HEIGHTS NEAR 1250 M...A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIALLY MORE DISCRETE STORMS.  LATER   THIS EVENING...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED INTO A SMALL   SEWD-MOVING MCS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.   ...THOMPSON
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Still some up-and-down and lots of other little showers popcorning around the two big ones.  Need something to go northeast of there to be truly isolated and have a real tornado threat, imo.

 

Agreed. Been sitting in OFK for an hour or so, and now becoming concerned with the lack of robust towers anywhere near this area. The convective signal from both global/regional and high-res models for NE NE has been quite strong, so it's tough to believe this will cap bust, but we probably need something to pop in the next 30-60 minutes. I was more worried about storm mode than initiation when I left this morning. Of course, if the existing area of convection SW of OLU is the only show, storm mode looks rather doomed (for chasers).

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Yah, its high but its only just started going up.  It may not amount to anything, but its really the best chance at this point unless you go for the HP disasters SW.

 

Agreed, staying on it for now. Looking ever so slightly better... just can't tell if it's sfc based.

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That new development SW of Beemer, NE has already crossed the westward moving OFB.

 

Doesn't really matter though, as that activity out near Aurora/Columbus is rapidly approaching and will likely be the main show for the day.

 

I know some of the short term/hi-res runs from last night showed this exact scenario occuring.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0611 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB INTO EXTREME WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 313...

VALID 142311Z - 150045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 313 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WIND PERSIST ACROSS ERN NEB INTO EXTREME WRN IA. GREATEST SEVERE

THREAT INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST

OVER ECNTRL NEB THROUGH 01Z.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SCNTRL NEB ARE

FORWARD PROPAGATING ALONG THE NERN EXTENSION OF THE ATTENDANT

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN HIGH BASED...BUT

ARE NOW MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE DEWPOINTS

NEAR 70 ARE SUPPORTING STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/

AND LOWER LCLS. SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE PRESENCE OF A

NNW-SSE ORIENTED FRONT/BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN NEB...AND VWP DATA SHOW

SUFFICIENTLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN THE 0-2 KM LAYER WITH 200 M2/S2

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO AN INCREASINGLY

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LOW LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES

ACROSS ERN NEB NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN

MAINTAIN DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 06/14/2013

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That new development SW of Beemer, NE has already crossed the westward moving OFB.

 

Doesn't really matter though, as that activity out near Aurora/Columbus is rapidly approaching and will likely be the main show for the day.

 

I know some of the short term/hi-res runs from last night showed this exact scenario occuring.

 

Looking good on reflectivity, inflow increasing.

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