Srain Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Haboob moving in from the NE near Texas Tech. Cam looking N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Dust storm warning here now. Phone just went off. Kinda thought about AMA stuff as our reason to leave. Models had things up there in the evening. Plus we have to get north for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 The storms initiating in the Amarillo area should move into a very potent environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Pic from like 90 min ago http://twitter.com/islivingston/status/337684208388558848/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Haboob moving in from the NE near Texas Tech. Cam looking N... You can really see it from Andys pic above. Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 The storms initiating in the Amarillo area should move into a very potent environment. Effective STP up to 5, 0-3 km EHI up to 9, 4000-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, 200-400 m2/s2 ESRH, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 85mph wind gust at Jayton. That is an F0 tornado type wind strength! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR CENTRALFISHER COUNTY...AT 609 PM CDT... THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS LOCATEDNEAR ROTAN...OR 20 MILES WEST OF HAMLIN...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. ATORNADO WAS REPORTED IN ROTAN AT 608 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Storms also firing in the vicinity of Amarillo. Are the jagged clouds north of the Amarillo convection gravity waves? (this is in reference to the picture above, not current obs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Effective STP up to 5, 0-3 km EHI up to 9, 4000-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, 200-400 m2/s2 ESRH, etc. Andy, aren't these similar parameters to the Cape/EHI you posted for Moore? Edit: someone posted a post Moore screen cap for the EHI at the time of the tornado - thinking it was you that posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Andy, aren't these similar parameters to the Cape/EHI you posted for Moore? Edit: someone posted a post Moore screen cap for the EHI at the time of the tornado - thinking it was you that posted it. ....yeah except there are no storms to utilize it now... This was conditional on those storms that fired NW of Amarillo being able to move into said environment, which didn't happen. Plus, I'm pretty sure we didn't have 60-70 kts of effective bulk shear to aid in storm organization (at the time, the jet streak has moved a bit closer now), the parameters that I listed there would only matter if we had mature/intensifying supercells moving into them. That area is now capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Are the jagged clouds north of the Amarillo convection gravity waves? (this is in reference to the picture above, not current obs)Think they are stable air roll clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Think they are stable air roll clouds. Thanks, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 ....yeah except there are no storms to utilize it now... This was conditional on those storms that fired NW of Amarillo being able to move into said environment, which didn't happen. Plus, I'm pretty sure we didn't have 60-70 kts of effective bulk shear to aid in storm organization (at the time, the jet streak has moved a bit closer now), the parameters that I listed there would only matter if we had mature/intensifying supercells moving into them. That area is now capped. It would've been hard to get anything going in that area anyway given that the southern storms started stealing all the inflow about 30 min into initiation. Storms just fired too early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Nasty bust... just a bit too much capping in the PH to the N of the original storms, where parameters were maximized. But I probably shouldn't complain... I feel for you guys who overnighted to make it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 The NAM seemed to not like the PH itself starting yesterday or so. Remember pondering staying in Lubbock but we wanted to hit the Big Tex. Given a building ridge and meager mid lvl flow seems maybe SPC was too bullish on the tor probs at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 here's our pseudo tornado from today. not really sure what it was.. think it was reported by someone tho as one report came right after we saw it. to me it looks kinda like dust getting sucked up into an updraft or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 tomorrow afternoon/evening At the Colorado/Kansas border, the NAM has about 2100 J/kg of CAPE, 90 m2/s2 helicity, and 30 knots shear (maybe only 25 knots at 500mb). The mid-level and upper level winds are just 20-30 knots at 500mb and 400mb In fact the GFS shows 50 knot winds only at 200mb. I think we will have a few supercells in the area, with perhaps junky or weak supercell characteristics, with a hail/wind threat, not really a long-track tornado threat, for sure. The NAM and GFS seem to have some QPF in the border area (also, Colorado/Nebraska border), so I think a reasonable amount of storms will happen in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Ian, that's definitely a tornado. It's dusty and ragged, but prolly a nice cone inside. Funny tail on the ground is just dust getting sucked in, perhaps not at the right angle the picture might imply, maybe inflow. Assume rain to the right and barber pole above on wider view. Scud right (in pic) is fine. Yeah, book your tornado. Nice catch! And that other Twitter pic is incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 The RAP is showing a 3km EHI of around 9-10 between 10 and midnight tonight on the NE/KS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Chinook - currently 59 dew in Sterling, CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Does anybody think it would be worth it to make the drive now up to NE CO from Denver over the next couple hours? My cousin's never seen a supercell, so I wanted to drive him up to at least take a few great photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Noticed the latest D2 mentioned strong tornadoes for tomorrow. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...PLAINS... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO A POSITION FROM WRN MT INTO NWRN WY AT 27/12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE WWD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD SCNTRL MT AS ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT...AT LEAST 1KM DEEP...FORCES LOWER 50S SFC DEW POINTS TOWARD BIL. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH SHORT-WAVE WILL LAG PEAK HEATING...IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE OFF THE NRN ABSAROKA RANGE...AND NRN BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN EVOLVE AND SPREAD TOWARD SERN MT/EXTREME NERN WY WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS CONCERN FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO. 23Z FORECAST SOUNDING AT 4BQ SUPPORTS THIS POSSIBILITY AS IT DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR IF A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT ACROSS CO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT FORECAST HEIGHT FIELDS ARE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY. ADDITIONALLY...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS KS BY 27/00Z WHICH SUGGESTS A WEAK FEATURE MAY BE FLATTENING THE RIDGE ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH BACKING FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS NEB IT APPEARS E-W SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST NORTH OF I-70 AND THIS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ IMPINGES ON THE BOUNDARY. STRONG HEATING ACROSS WRN KS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS ADEQUATE FOR MAINTENANCE OF SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS AND STRONG/ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. ROUGHLY 20KT OF 500MB FLOW WILL ALSO EXTEND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX. IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL BREAK THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE SBCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 3000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND ALONG THE SRN DRYLINE BUT THERE IS CONCERN PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR SCT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 In SD today. Guess we have to play the northern target tomorrow tho might put us a bit far from best on Monday. Almost looking for a down day heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Nice supercell near Sturgis, SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Matt Grantham from the Birmingham WFO is on the supercell near Rapid City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 This storm in SD is ridiculous http://twitter.com/islivingston/status/338455223523758080/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Classic plains convection the next three days, all sorts of potential with quite a few high reward days possible. Monday and Tuesday, ahead of the main trough, look particularly interesting if the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 This storm in SD is ridiculous http://twitter.com/islivingston/status/338455223523758080/photo/1 SD is just silly at putting on amazing shows, be it structure or unexpected tornadoes, on such a regular basis this time of year. Wish I could just live in RAP for the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 SD is just silly at putting on amazing shows, be it structure or unexpected tornadoes, on such a regular basis this time of year. Wish I could just live in RAP for the next month. Could be the best chasing in the high plains with the scenery and the magical convection that tends to form along/due to the Black Hills. NW flow over the hills can be wickedly deceiving. I love that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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