Srain Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 1630Z Moderate Risk Update: ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... THE SEVERE STORM/SMALL STORM CLUSTER THAT EVOLVED FROM A LARGER SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH NEW INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE DRYLINE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE TENDENCY FOR CONTINUING WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING FOR STORM INITIATION ON THE DRYLINE. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS/GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NEAR THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO INTO AREAS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS NEAR/SOUTH OF CHILDRESS. THIS IS WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...BEFORE CONSIDERABLE UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS BY EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE HINDERED BY WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO QUICKLY GENERATE CONSIDERABLE OUTFLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Slight risk for manana! In some ways I like Fri and Sat better than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Slight risk for manana! In some ways I like Fri and Sat better than today. Big hole in the clouds opening up in Oklahoma near the Red River as the storms move out and what appears to be an outflow boundary pushes SW. NE of max SPC probs, and lack of clouds implies subsident now, but vague memories of holes opening up late morning filling in later, I have a feeling between the Arbuckles and the River. Temps cool now, but dews in mid 60s, and it'll get full mid day Sun. Just a thought. That or the outflow boundary area, North of I-20 near/West of ABI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE/NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 231804Z - 232000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 19-20Z ALONG A WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR AMA. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS. DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DECAYING MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SERN OK/NERN TX CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD TO NEAR AMA SEWD ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 90S SW OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODIFIED 12Z MAF RAOBS AND RECENT ACARS DATA INVOF LBB SUGGEST INHIBITION WILL BECOME MINIMAL SOON. WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 19-21Z. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RICH GULF MOISTURE PLUME...RESULTING IN LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. LARGE TO GIANT HAIL IS QUITE LIKELY WHERE THIS OCCURS. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NEAR THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE ENHANCED AND LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. ..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 140 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 TORNADO WATCH 213 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS OKC009-055-057-065-129-240300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0213.130523T1840Z-130524T0300Z/ OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM GREER HARMON JACKSON ROGER MILLS TXC003-011-017-023-033-045-059-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-115- 117-125-129-151-153-155-165-169-179-189-191-197-205-207-211-219- 227-233-253-263-269-275-279-303-305-317-335-341-345-353-359-369- 375-381-393-415-417-433-437-441-445-447-483-487-501-240300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0213.130523T1840Z-130524T0300Z/ TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS ARMSTRONG BAILEY BAYLOR BORDEN BRISCOE CALLAHAN CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FISHER FLOYD FOARD GAINES GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HARDEMAN HARTLEY HASKELL HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HOWARD HUTCHINSON JONES KENT KING KNOX LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN MITCHELL MOORE MOTLEY NOLAN OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STONEWALL SWISHER TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON WHEELER WILBARGER YOAKUM ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...SJT...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE/NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 231804Z - 232000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 19-20Z ALONG A WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR AMA. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS. DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DECAYING MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SERN OK/NERN TX CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD TO NEAR AMA SEWD ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 90S SW OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODIFIED 12Z MAF RAOBS AND RECENT ACARS DATA INVOF LBB SUGGEST INHIBITION WILL BECOME MINIMAL SOON. WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 19-21Z. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RICH GULF MOISTURE PLUME...RESULTING IN LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. LARGE TO GIANT HAIL IS QUITE LIKELY WHERE THIS OCCURS. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NEAR THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE ENHANCED AND LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. ..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... There's something classic and terrifying about a Texas event/chase. Maybe I just have nightmares about Jarrell. Panhandle looks to have 3KM EHI in the 4-6 range around 6 PM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Initiation one county East of Plainview off retreating outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 That cell east of Lockney, TX sure did blow up quickly. It's in a relatively primed environment. Is the pronounced signature snaking to the nw of this cell an old outflow boundary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Ed, you just answered my question! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 This cell was 30-35k ft 5 minutes ago, now it's reading 45k ft? Can cells really explode that quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 tornado warning! on the cell you guys were just talking about. I didn't even have GRLevel3 open until a minute ago, because I didn't think anything was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Wow this was quick 001 WFUS54 KLUB 231853 TORLUB TXC153-345-231915- /O.NEW.KLUB.TO.W.0002.130523T1853Z-130523T1915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 153 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN MOTLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. * UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 150 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLOYDADA...MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FLOMOT AND CEDAR HILL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3428 10100 3406 10091 3402 10121 3420 10124 TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 255DEG 4KT 3413 10116 $$ FB/MCZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 ^^ Land spout at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 It's in a fantastic spot relative to the RADAR to get some pretty decent scans - with little in the way to cause any data errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 This cell was 30-35k ft 5 minutes ago, now it's reading 45k ft? Can cells really explode that quickly?If there is good pressure height falls... Then yes. The Moore cell went from 27kft to 54kft in 10 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 If there is good pressure height falls... Then yes. The Moore cell went from 27kft to 54kft in 10 minutes... Pressure falls aren't the only things that allow for rapid storm development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 The best I can figure, the "brief dusty tube" tornado was away from all of the reflectivity, so it must have been all updraft over there, and no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 That supercell in the TX panhandle is all by itself and going to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 That supercell in the TX panhandle is all by itself and going to townNow warned, though rotation not very organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 It's beginning to hook around. Look at Base Velocity 2.5. There's either a lot of rotation, or something went wrong with the data at 2.5 tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Markus Pfister was the lone ranger on it for a while, now it looks like everyone else is arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 any internet live-feeds from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 any internet live-feeds from this? check out chasertv.com Markus Pfister has it looks like a wall cloud and possibly something on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Radar presentation is really taking on a classic look (reflectivity-wise) - but it's displaying such an odd S/SW track - Isn't that what Jarrell did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I saw it. I saw the wall cloud before Markus started moving. Looks like this may be starting some new rotations south of Matador. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Pressure falls aren't the only things that allow for rapid storm development.Well yes, but they are still a very intricate part... Along with instability, lapse rates, wind shear, etc, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Wunderground windspeeds are maxed out at .5 elevation - I wish I was home with GRLevel2 right about now... Can anybody post GR scans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Base velocity shows -53.4 knots in the RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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