baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 All the storms south of Childress are beginning to show some nice deviant motion, and are moving into a more favorable environment with lower LCLs (albeit still high). If anything, I bet some nice pictures should come out of these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 the southern two look quite nice, particularly the one near guthrie. the others between there and childress are poofing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Roger Hill did it again... Sanford, KS I have always kind of wondered about this type of picture. This looks like a circular wall cloud, but there is rain in the center. Wall clouds don't have rain in the center. So what is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Not really a bad looking image. Multiple supercells hurling some 2" hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Any chaser on this is catching one of the best supers in many a day... Beautiful TBSS and slight rotation on this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Any chaser on this is catching one of the best supers in many a day... Beautiful TBSS and slight rotation on this one: supe.png looks like almost no one on it. it's pretty close to not being in the risk area too it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I have always kind of wondered about this type of picture. This looks like a circular wall cloud, but there is rain in the center. Wall clouds don't have rain in the center. So what is going on? think at that pt it's kinda hp'ish. pretty isolated and solid mid-lvl shear so it's nice and sculpted. the lowerings under the main base look more scuddy than anything. several tornado reports on cells nw of russell ks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 https://twitter.com/KWCH12/status/332281019300450304/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 https://twitter.com/KWCH12/status/332281019300450304/photo/1 I'm just dying to know whether one was cyclonic and the other was anti-cyclonic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 I'm just dying to know whether one was cyclonic and the other was anti-cyclonic. several pics so maybe someone got vid. no chasers on it on spotter network tho verne carlson is close now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 It's hard to tell that the tornado near Hays, KS came from a supercell. It looked like a linear storm on the UEX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Big wind burst near Dodge City. Non-thunderstorm wind gust? What were they thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 9, 2013 Author Share Posted May 9, 2013 .51" of rain in 10 minutes at the Norman mesonet. Up to .84" today, and still pouring. Winds were less than I expected though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 9, 2013 Author Share Posted May 9, 2013 1.25" in 30 minutes. Not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 AM CDT THU MAY 09 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091139Z - 091415Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH. DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED JUST E OF SJT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E AXIS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASED SFC TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT AT SJT INDICATIVE OF SOME VERTICAL MIXING AND PERHAPS EROSION OF CIN. ALSO AIDING IN LIFT IS A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE ALOFT SEEN ON SATELLITE. THE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT JUMBLED WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER 4-5 KM AS SEEN ON VWP. THIS IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN A CLUSTER OF MULTICELLS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THESE STORMS TO PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS. THE STRONGER CORES MAY HAVE PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL. A WIND THREAT APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD INCREASE LATER TODAY IF THE CLUSTER MANAGES TO GET LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW. ..JEWELL/KERR.. 05/09/2013 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely ahead for Central Texas: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 AM CDT THU MAY 09 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091437Z - 091630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL ORGANIZE AND BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST SOME LARGE HAIL THREAT. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER CNTRL TX. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE SEEMINGLY MAXIMIZED OVER THIS REGION...AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SERN NM/NRN MEXICO. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DELAYING SURFACE HEATING...INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z DRT RAOB SHOWS A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER --15 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO-- WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /9 DEG C/KM H7-H5 LAYER/. STRONG DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT TO ORGANIZE STORMS WITH TIME AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2013 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Was put under two severe thunderstorm warnings yesterday for quarter hail. Didn't see any hail at my location, but peas to quarters were reported in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Woke up at 6 AM by severe thunderstorm warning. Thought it was early summer MCS season already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091952Z - 092045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ONGOING CNTRL TX MCS AS IT MOVES INTO ERN AND SERN TX. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A CONFINED CORRIDOR OF DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COMPLEX MOVING EWD AND IMPACTING THE CNTRL TX I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS CONGLOMERATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS --PERHAPS ACCELERATING IN FORWARD MOTION-- AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN-SERN TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN LA. THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS SSWLY 40-50 KT 1-2 KM AGL FLOW MAINTAINS A FETCH OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A STOUT EML THAT WAS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z CLL SPECIAL RAOB FROM TEXAS A&M. A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM A LARGE HAIL/ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO MAINLY A DMGG WIND THREAT AS THE MCS FORWARD PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2013 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Tornado (radar indicated) should miss Abilene, but SJT's warning mentions tennis ball sized hail reaching the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 I took about 5 hours yesterday to go over all the hail dual-pol training again and even found some really neat research publications out of the folks at OU. It payed off today, I correctly predicted the qualitative size of each of the reports. Largest was 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 15, 2013 Author Share Posted May 15, 2013 Pretty impressive system this afternoon. Can see strong upper level outflow to the north and northeast, with multiple convective bands developing around the mid and upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 15, 2013 Author Share Posted May 15, 2013 Very impressive outflow. Increasing diffluence in the northeast quad of the upper low, with the poleward exit region of the jet streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 15, 2013 Author Share Posted May 15, 2013 I strongly suggest at least a 6 hour loop of WV imagery right now. It's beautiful. So much going on between the system over Oklahoma and the incoming trough over Utah. Can see convection firing downstream over Colorado. Really very fun to watch. Not getting any work done right now haha http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 TOR warning out NW of Nacona, TX heading into OK towards Ardmore. Edit: Actually confirmed TOG by spotters ... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 615 PM CDT for northernMontague County... At 538 PM CDT... multiple storm spotters reported a rain-wrapped tornado one mile west of Belcherville. The tornado is moving northeast at 15 mph.The tornado will be near... Nocona around 550 PM CDT... In addition... this storm is capable of producing hail to the size of softballs. The hail core will impact areas north of Nocona as it moves toward Lake Nocona.Precautionary/preparedness actions... If you are in the path of this storm... move to an interior bathroom... closet... or hallway on the lowest floor of your building. Cover yourself with blankets... pillows... or a mattress for protection.Lat... Lon 3397 9760 3391 9759 3392 9748 3360 9749 3368 9798 3389 9798 3389 9794 3386 9785 3392 9779 3395 9772 3398 9770 3399 9766time... Mot... loc 2235z 235deg 12kt 3382 9786 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Isoldated cell between Goldthwaite and Brownwood, TX is in a pretty juicy environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Got woken up by pea-sized hail and lightning so close it set off my smoke detectors here in Norman. Ugh. Much larger hail to the NW of us, something Moore definitely doesn't need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Mod risk up in NW Texas... 45% hatched hail and 10% tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Chasing anything less than a mod is goin to be lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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