OKpowdah Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 One of the coldest 500mb temperatures Norman, OK has recorded in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 One of the higher PW soundings one will ever see in Corpus Christi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Per Cantore's tweet, storm on KICT (Wichita,KS) radar indicates cloud top of 67,000 ft (~12.5 miles high). I looked on GRLevel 2 and found it for myself...really cool stuff considering cloud tops don't usually surpass 56,000 ft here in the US. That cloud top must be in the lower stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Some pretty insane gusts with that MCS, too. Tulsa just gusted to 76MPH, and there were multiple reports in the 60-80MPH range, including a spotter report of estimated winds of 80-100MPH winds 9 miles SSE of Pretty Prairie, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 That thing has been moving at 60-70 mph plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 24, 2013 Author Share Posted July 24, 2013 Event summary for last night from the Tulsa NWS WFO http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weather-event_2013July23 The Tulsa International Airport recorded a 76 mph wind gust as the storms rolled in. The highest ever recorded at the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 State of Emergency declared for Eastern Oklahoma by Governor Fallin for storm damage from last night's storms. http://www.ok.gov/triton/modules/newsroom/newsroom_article.php?id=223&article_id=12233 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Looks like a major, slow-moving MCS is on tap for tomorrow through Friday. Would be wonderful for this to verify for W OK. My secondary hope is for us to get decent storms that don't hit between 4-8am, but I've just about already conceded that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Long-lived tornado has been on the ground at least 20 min near the KS/CO border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 2034z (2:34 Mountain Time) 6 miles NE of Two Buttes, Colorado. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TORNADO NEAR PROWERS AND BACA COUNTY LINE NORTHEAST OF TWO BUTTES. TORNADO HAS BEEN ON GROUND FOR AT LEAST 20 MINUTES. totally unrelated radar image: Dodge City radar, wide mesocyclone near Garden City KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Significant flash flooding this morning across OKC metro and Norman. 4" at the Mesonet in North Norman, CoCoRaHS reports over 5" in the southern half of the city. Police advising drivers to stay off roads if possible. In late July of all times.... odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Watch out, SE Kansas. The 4km NAM is showing huge amounts of precipitation. The regular NAM is showing about 1-1.5" in the next 24 hours. It's already raining heavily around Emporia and Kansas City. Some of Kansas saw heavy rain amounts over the weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 storm total rainfall in Kansas that has already occurred in the last 2.5 days. Red is 2", white is 4", gray is 5+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Very beneficial rainfall occurred across much of the eastern half of KS yesterday with widespread 3-7 inch rainfall totals... Unfortunately this will lead to moderate to major flooding for those areas that saw the heaviest rainfall... Also, saw on the KTOP LSR that in Southern Lyon County somebody measured receiving 5 inches of rain in an hour and 15 minutes, I don't think ive ever seen rainfall rates that high ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 There are several supercells with severe thunderstorm warnings, and also tornado warning in South Dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Remarkably dry and boring weather Southern Oklahoma and most of Texas to begin August per 6Z GFS, which is consistent with yesterday's 0Z 16 day no rain GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Interesting severe weather setup for the first day of august for central, and south-central Nebraska... NAM is forecasting 0-1KM EHI values of 1 to 3, and 0-3KM EHI values of 5 to 8... Most of these high'ish numbers would appear to be a result from the relatively modest 0-1KM (100-200 m2s2) and 0-3KM (300-600 m2s2) Helicity Values, along with sufficient instability AOA 2000 J/KG in the lowest 0-70hPa AGL and 50kts of Bulk Shear. Main concern would be capping with a very strong cap immediately east of the best conditions, and it doesn't appear that any storms will go over this area until after dark which could inhibit the tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Interesting severe weather setup for the first day of august for central, and south-central Nebraska... NAM is forecasting 0-1KM EHI values of 1 to 3, and 0-3KM EHI values of 5 to 8... Most of these high'ish numbers would appear to be a result from the relatively modest 0-1KM (100-200 m2s2) and 0-3KM (300-600 m2s2) Helicity Values, along with sufficient instability AOA 2000 J/KG in the lowest 0-70hPa AGL and 50kts of Bulk Shear. Main concern would be capping with a very strong cap immediately east of the best conditions, and it doesn't appear that any storms will go over this area until after dark which could inhibit the tornado potential. Good discussion. I see the SPC has introduced a 30% risk area tomorrow, along with some hatching. The NAM predicts a 300mb wind speed of 50 knots over some of this area. That would indicate that some of the 0-6 km shear values (or effective shear) may be 45-50 knots, which is a definite signal for higher severe weather potential. (250mb is over 60 knots.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Interesting severe weather setup for the first day of august for central, and south-central Nebraska... NAM is forecasting 0-1KM EHI values of 1 to 3, and 0-3KM EHI values of 5 to 8... Most of these high'ish numbers would appear to be a result from the relatively modest 0-1KM (100-200 m2s2) and 0-3KM (300-600 m2s2) Helicity Values, along with sufficient instability AOA 2000 J/KG in the lowest 0-70hPa AGL and 50kts of Bulk Shear. Main concern would be capping with a very strong cap immediately east of the best conditions, and it doesn't appear that any storms will go over this area until after dark which could inhibit the tornado potential. Those helicity values are certainly not modest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 The NAM is showing some 0-3km helicities of 700 m2/s2 tomorrow afternoon. EHI values are around 9-10 north of Kearney Nebraska. With values like that, significant hail sizes and tornadoes will be a concern for forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Solid area of high (3000-4000+ J/kg) SBCAPE (MLCAPE is also 2500-3000+ J/kg) along the dryline off the 00z NAM (valid 21z) in Western/Central NE tomorrow. If cells can fire maybe around 18z and propagate eastward into the following highly sheared environment, could be quite the interesting day (given moderately strong/substantially veering flow with height). Strong sfc wind response via pressure falls associated with leeside cyclogenesis near and east of the dryline contributing to the above impressive 0-3 km SRH. The 4 km WRF-NMM does not have anything in this area tomorrow afternoon/evening, FWIW. The NAM does appear to have some convective parameterization issues via an MCS that it has running from morning through early afternoon that shows up on the 500 mb vorticity fields. Like I said above though, if we can get a few supercells to fire off the dryline maybe somewhere near North Platte's longitude, it could be an interesting localized event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Tornado watch coming for SW SD and much of western/central NE. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 011753Z - 012000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL PRIMARY RISKS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. A WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR...WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF AN INITIAL WW. DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1012 MB CYCLONE NEAR BFF...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD AND THEN E ACROSS SRN SD. SURFACE-BASED CB/S HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS FRONT IN SHANNON/BENNETT COUNTIES SD. ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW IN CNTRL NEB /CENTERED OVER VALLEY COUNTY/. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FOR ASCENT IS NEBULOUS...CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD INCREASING DESTABILIZATION AND MINIMAL CAPPING WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON /SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS/. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 08/01/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Chandler OK Conditions at: KCQB observed 02 August 2013 21:35 UTC Temperature: 37.0°C (99°F) Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 50%] Edit: RAP shows Theta-e is 390.9 K around Bartlesville. Also 99/77 makes for 115F heat index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Chandler OK Conditions at: KCQB observed 02 August 2013 21:35 UTC Temperature: 37.0°C (99°F) Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 50%] 6000-7000 J/kg MLCAPE in north central OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 This storm near the CO/KS border showing high-precipitation characteristics and some rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Severe-warned storm in western Kansas. This horseshoe-shaped supercell storm has large hail, possibly over 2", some rotation, and an overhang is seen over the storm's BWER-type region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 BWER "dent" in the same storm (Johnson, Kansas). This BWER is actually at the Colorado/Kansas border now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Those aren't BWERs, a bounded weak echo region means the area of lower reflectivity is completely surrounded by precip/etc. returns. Those captures only show a weak echo region in the form of a notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 I thought BWERs just needed to have a significant overhang and at least have a U-shape or hook shape on the regular view (2D view) anyway.. same storm. Looks like a significant mesocyclone. expected hail size is 2.53" according to GRLevel2AE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Tomorrow, the NAM has 40 knot shear values for western Kansas, and some 3000+ CAPE in that area. The SPC has bumped up the outlook to a 30% outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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