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Southern/Central Plains Obs and Short Term Discussions


OKpowdah

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Heat advisory has been lifted from the area as a result of the storms from Nebraska pushing through. High was previously 100 degrees with heat indexes thought to be around 105-108. Looks like the high is now 92 for today, will this have any detrimental effect on the storms later?

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Heat advisory has been lifted from the area as a result of the storms from Nebraska pushing through. High was previously 100 degrees with heat indexes thought to be around 105-108. Looks like the high is now 92 for today, will this have any detrimental effect on the storms later?

Possibly, a low-level warm nose was evident this morning across NE KS, temperature a few hundred feet above the surface was measured at about 32 degrees celsius (90 degrees farenheit) per 1200Z KTOP Sounding... Surface CINH was around -600... So capping could potentially be an issue, but with storms expected to occur mainly in the evening and overnight hours, not sure how much that cap will have weakened or what effect LLJ will have, regardless of the morning convection, convective temps should still be reached...
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:yikes: :yikes:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 378  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  230 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF     KANSAS    * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL    1000 PM CDT.    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...    NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT      GUSTS TO 90 MPH POSSIBLE    SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL      EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE    A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
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LCL's are pretty high aren't they?

Yeah Surface LCL's are AOA 2000 AGL... and temp/dp spreads are around 30 degrees... But given the combination of extreme instability and 0-6KM SRH around 40kts-- basing off of models, not real-time observations-- anything could happen... Also consider dew points are in the mid-70's. Tornado threat is still pretty low though.

Definitely an HP Supercell, rainfall rates around 2 inches per hour... But basing off of current radar trends it appears that we have a wave-echo pattern developing across much of Kansas... Got to wonder if anymore development will occur on the northern-end, no TCU showing up on visible satellite. Areas west of I-35 would appear to have highest potential ATTM, MDT Risk east of I-35 might bust because of lower temps and debris cloud from earlier convection.

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Possibly, a low-level warm nose was evident this morning across NE KS, temperature a few hundred feet above the surface was measured at about 32 degrees celsius (90 degrees farenheit) per 1200Z KTOP Sounding... Surface CINH was around -600... So capping could potentially be an issue, but with storms expected to occur mainly in the evening and overnight hours, not sure how much that cap will have weakened or what effect LLJ will have, regardless of the morning convection, convective temps should still be reached...

 

 

 

Think the early morning convection has anything to do with why we aren't seeing any storms in NE KS? I'm assuming our chances for seeing any are dropping drastically as the line pushes SE?

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Think the early morning convection has anything to do with why we aren't seeing any storms in NE KS? I'm assuming our chances for seeing any are dropping drastically as the line pushes SE?

Well, the main reason that convection held off until around 8/9PM would appear to be the effect of the clouds and outflow put out by that line of TSRA that formed along the KS/NE Border around noon and continued until around the Lyon/ Wabaunsee county line where it dissipated... A large portion of NE Kansas appears to have been north/ east of the outflow, this and the cloud cover led to quite a temperature gradient between the very hot conditions and the much cooler air (I.e SLN was around 105 and KEMP was around 85) I assume what caused the Severe Thunderstorms across east-central KS just a bit ago was that the previous outflow might have weakened or perhaps better forcing came into the area... A bit odd though that those storms formed behind the boundary and were able to produce Ping-Pong ball sized hail and 80mph winds..
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Tons of reports of damage on ICT Storm reports mainly in McPherson, Wichita, and areas south... Including a measured 92mph wind gust in McPherson by a storm chaser before their aneometer snapped, apparently caused significant tree and powerline damage across the entire town as should be expected with winds of that magnitude. Also significant tree damage in West Wichita associated with a measured 89 mph gust at Wichita Mid-Continent Airport, more reports of the same kind including a Traffic Light, and roof damage in Arkansas City. Definitely appears that MDT Risk verified, maybe a bit off in terms of location but nonetheless a widespread damaging wind event.

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Sig-hatched region added to the 30% area for the D2 in E MT and western parts of the Dakotas. Near the WF as of now looks like a good play in W ND and the adjacent parts of E MT. This is going to be one of those times where that radar hole in the region is going to be a real pain in the backside.

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Cool to watch this disturbance dive from Saskatchewan into Ohio, followed by the huge ridge over the west breaking over the Great Lakes region, forcing the disturbance westward into Oklahoma. How often do you see a wave of this magnitude moving westward at that latitude?

 

post-128-0-55093000-1373658002_thumb.gif

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