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Southern/Central Plains Obs and Short Term Discussions


OKpowdah

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TOR on it.  Radar indicated.  Big HP mess now though.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
741 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN CUMING COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
    
* AT 730 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BEEMER...OR 32 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  NORFOLK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY
TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013  
   
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON
 
   
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.
 
 
..REMARKS..  
 
1239 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 SSW SPRINGFIELD 37.10N 93.33W  
06/15/2013 M9.00 INCH GREENE MO TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
UPDATED REPORT,TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 10AM.  
 

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Thunder_road, is your chase group still in Colorado? Just curious.  I might chase storms for 30 miles (ish) today.

 

The HRRR has been adamant since early this morning that a supercell will evolve roughly from CYS-IMP this evening. Should be an easy, close chase for you if it verifies. I was half tempted to haul it down I-80 toward that area after yesterday's chase, but didn't like the straight-line hodographs, so opted to head home. This probably guarantees amazing structure and/or a Campo-like fluke tornado.

 

Upslope convection beginning to develop along the Laramie Range the past 20 minutes or so.

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Before all of this happened, I was thinking of driving to one of those gas stations at one of those exits on I-80 (maybe by Burns), right next to where that cell is. I just didn't want to drive that much.  I had enough driving on Thursday when I chased a pretty small storm, and then hit the Greeley US 34 traffic at rush hour. On that day, I think I discovered the cattle yard that makes Greeley stink so much.  It is a big cattle yard. I almost gagged.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  

1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

1239 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 SSW SPRINGFIELD 37.10N 93.33W  

06/15/2013 M9.00 INCH GREENE MO TRAINED SPOTTER  

 

UPDATED REPORT,TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 10AM.  

 

 

yeah that was some intense rain today in Springfield and Joplin got a lot of rain as well, not as much as Springfield though. It got really dark outside, much like the day of the tornado, so some people were pretty freaked out. In the end it poured down a ton of rain with visibility only a few hundred feet at that. Lots of flash flooding and a few water rescues. I still don't understand why people try to drive through floodwater. 

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Thunder_road, is your chase group still in Colorado? Just curious.  I might chase storms for 30 miles (ish) today.

 

We were out in Weld County today with about 50 other chasers (it felt like) including one tour company that had absolutely no chase etiquette.

 

Goodland, KS now.

 

I have almost absolutely no feel on tomorrow.  And after a check of the 4 km NAM, NMM, ARW, SPC WRF and NSSL WRF...neither do the hi-res models.

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Confirmed tornado in good ole' Cherry Co. NE. You can see the OFB on LNX in between Mullen and North Platte and the supercell is tracking right along it.

 

9v2.png

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE343 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013NEC031-162115-/O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130616T2115Z/CHERRY NE-243 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTYUNTIL 315 PM MDT...AT 238 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 25 MILES NORTHWEST OFHYANNIS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...DIPPING VAT MEADOW.
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Confirmed tornado in good ole' Cherry Co. NE. You can see the OFB on LNX in between Mullen and North Platte and the supercell is tracking right along it.

 

 

The storm near Mullen has a very interesting shape right now.   There are 7 warning boxes in Nebraska for mainly discrete storms.

 

2" hail report, Grant, Nebraska

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Tornado in Kit Carson Co.

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...* UNTIL 530 PM MDT* AT 455 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF  STRATTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  IMPACT...SPORADIC DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN KIT CARSON COUNTY.
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Tornado in Kit Carson Co.

 

Bogus.  We had a completely unimpeded view of the base when the warning was issued, and we saw nothing.  SPC report is a rain-wrapped landspout, which doesn't even make sense.

 

However...still quite the picturesque storm!

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Tomorrow looks fairly interesting... appears that a significant severe threat could develop over Central/ Eastern KS in the afternoon and evening hours possibly continuing overnight across SE KS/ NE OK/ SW MO... Per the SPC D2 1730Z Outlook looks like a few semi-discrete to possibly discrete cells will develop, and eventually merge into a severe mcs and be capable of producing very-large hail, and significant damaging wind gusts, forecast soundings across the area are supportive of this idea, showing a very dry air column with the classic summertime Inverted-V which is typically indicative of very strong thunderstorm related winds... All WFO's (TOP/ICT/EAX) appear to be on board with this threat. Tornado threat would appear rather low ATTM given Surface LCL's AOA 2000 AGL and Temp/DP spreads in the 30 to 40 degree range would generally expect storms to be high-based, however should storms become surface based a tornado or two could be possible given the environment with 40-55kts of Bulk Shear, and CAPE values of 4000-5000 J/KG, capping shouldn't be an issue either with models trending cooler at 850 hPa... Main issue ATTM would appear to be the lack of any strong forcing mechanism... Also FWIW the NAM is showing 0-3KM EHI values to be in the 3 to 7 range across Eastern Kansas, and on this occasion the NAM is not an outlier and is in decent agreement with other models...

Seem like an upgrade to a Moderate Risk could be warranted eventually as exact details become more obvious given the expected damaging wind threat-- which could be potentially widespread, as well as the initial threat for very-large hail, and a tornado or two.

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