OKpowdah Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I figured we could use a thread to post general obs and short term discussion in the southern / central Plains area. Basically a thread to cover the garden variety slight risk days, so we don't clutter the long range thread with that stuff. SPC has a slight risk up for most of Oklahoma for late today and tonight. Last update included a small 30% hail area. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK... ...OK... MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS TX/OK WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX...BUT ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE BULK OF OK. THIS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. BY EARLY EVENING...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM/TX TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS OVER OK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY. THE SUITE OF STORM-SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING /NAM NESTS...NMM...NSSL...HRRR/ SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z. THIS AREA OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A 30 PERCENT HAIL RISK. ..HART/GARNER.. 04/26/2013 Here's the impulse on water vapor: 12z sounding from Norman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 Big moisture return from yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 12z NCEP WRF-NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 12z NCEP WRF-NMM refd_1000m_f14.gif mxuphl_f14.gif I noticed that this morning. Seems like multiple hi-res models are focusing on OKC this evening. Another local chase seems to be in order! By the way, congratulations on the promotion! It's great to have a severe-weather junkie on staff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 12z NCEP WRF-NMM refd_1000m_f14.gif mxuphl_f14.gif Well that is certainly interesting, the OUN sounding there isn't lacking on shear, although that CCW kink is rather prominent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I noticed that this morning. Seems like multiple hi-res models are focusing on OKC this evening. Another local chase seems to be in order! By the way, congratulations on the promotion! It's great to have a severe-weather junkie on staff! Yeah, the HRRR seems consistent across OKC the past handful of runs, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 I noticed that this morning. Seems like multiple hi-res models are focusing on OKC this evening. Another local chase seems to be in order! By the way, congratulations on the promotion! It's great to have a severe-weather junkie on staff! NSSL WRF and HRRR both have at least some degree of this also, from a clear supercell to a kind in a line. Another local chase sounds good to me too And thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 The 12Z Texas Tech WRF also shows consistency with the NSSL WRF and HRRR with an OKC-type solution around 10 PM CDT tonight. Pretty good consistency with the high-res models at this point. The RAP seems to be out to lunch as shown by the dewpoint chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 NAM FireWx Nest suggests the same thing as the other high-res guidance. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Latest OUN WRF shows a nasty updraft by 8 PM west of OKC on I-40. Looks to roll right into the city around 10 PM. I'll probably leave Norman by 4 to get out towards Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 Latest OUN WRF shows a nasty updraft by 8 PM west of OKC on I-40. Looks to roll right into the city around 10 PM. I'll probably leave Norman by 4 to get out towards Clinton. Sounds like a good plan. Cu field building back over the TX panhandle now. RAP forecast soundings near Norman aren't half bad. Lots of elevated instability, and strong helicity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 26, 2013 Author Share Posted April 26, 2013 MD up in western OK http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0558.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Tim Marshall saw brief needle tornado NW of Putnam at 6:31p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Must be quite the light show in OKC as darkness approaches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 The northern squall line storm is just one of those storms that there is no rain in it, it's all small hail. dB < 0 all the way through the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 So, Mr. Reimer. How did that 59 mph wind driven hail go over? I saw that LSR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Lots of damage being reported in Anadarko from a couple of chaser/spotter reports. Power poles snapped, trees uprooted/down and damage to houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Mping Hail reports, jacked from twitter. via @wxjoe Hail accumulation pic from twitter. via @https://twitter.com/GrumpyRainbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Another pic out of Edmond, from @lancewest on Twitter -- Plains storms sure don't mess around, ha. We got 0.72" in 10 minutes here and gusted to 51MPH. Loving the rain though -- at this rate we'll possibly be officially out of drought next time the USGS updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 So, Mr. Reimer. How did that 59 mph wind driven hail go over? I saw that LSR.. Pretty freaky actually! The storm was about three miles north of the front at the time I intercepted it. We had a sharp inversion with about two mile visibility. As the storm hit, it went from light, to pitch black (dead of night black), and then to bright green. Needless to say, it was a creepy experience and one I won't forget anytime soon. Hail remained around half-dollar size, but the wind made me think I was going to lose a few windows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 27, 2013 Author Share Posted April 27, 2013 Large branches down in front of our apartment in Norman. Impressive winds. Mesonet hit 51mph. I'd estimate higher for sure at my place. 0.72" of rain in 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 It looks like the EdwardsPlateau and the Balcones Escarpment will be the areas to watch this afternoon into the overnight hours for strong storms with large hail and possibly damaging winds being the primary threat. I am somewhat concerned that training may become an issue along the sagging boundary across that Region with some flash flood potential developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0336 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013AREAS AFFECTED...SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO NRN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRALAND SOUTH TXCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 272036Z - 272200ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO NRN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRALAND SOUTH TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THISAFTERNOON...AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A ONE OR MORE WATCHES.TRENDS WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COAHUILAMEXICO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR POTENTIAL SEVEREWEATHER THREAT...IF ACTIVITY CAN REACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEYAREA OF S TX.DISCUSSION...EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A FRONTCONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY E/SEWD ACROSS ERN AND CENTRAL TX. AT20Z...THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SWWD TO 50 SOF KCRS...AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE EDWARDSPLATEAU TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VICINITY OF WRN VAL VERDE COUNTY. AMOIST/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70STO LOWER 80S ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATEINSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OFSTEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAK DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THEFRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASEDCONVECTION THUS FAR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. REGIONAL RADARIMAGERY SHOWED A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN A PLUME OFELEVATED CONVECTION N OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST RECENTSTORMS COULD BE NEARLY SURFACE BASED IN WILLIAMSON AND TRAVISCOUNTIES TX...GIVEN ITS LOCATION NEAR THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMSLOCATED TO THE NW TO W OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TOPROPAGATE NWWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO A MORE FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEARSPACE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT COULDRESULT IN A HAIL THREAT.MEANWHILE...IF GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURSNEAR AND S OF THE FRONT...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ANDEFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TOSEVERE STORMS. THUS...THE DISCUSSION AREA IS BEING MONITORED FORTHE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF ONE OR MORE WATCHES...PETERS/HART.. 04/27/2013...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Quater sized hail reported in Kerr County/Central TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 29, 2013 Author Share Posted April 29, 2013 High temps so far in the mid 80's to low 90's across OK. 84 in OKC currently. Average is 76, record is 92. Record warm low tonight is 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 SPC day 1 covers SW OK into central TX in a slight risk, for hail and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 Just another cold front. Apparent temperature across OK currently. 24hr temperature change. -46 in Hooker, Beaver, and Slapout ... (side note: three names I will never get over) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Just another cold front. Apparent temperature across OK currently. current.TAPP.grad.png 24hr temperature change. -46 in Hooker, Beaver, and Slapout ... (side note: three names I will never get over) current.TAIR_24H.grad.png Pretty incredible drops though in 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Amarillo may have a 50-degree drop from 5PM yesterday to 5PM today...97 to 47? It's currently 50. They may drop into the upper 20s by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 Storms firing in SW OK along the front, streaming northward, becoming elevated behind the front. Can see the thin line on radar really well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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