Met1985 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 By the looks of it we could have a busy day with pop up storms forming here in the SE. There looks to be a lot of moisture to work with and with the heating of the day could easily spawn severe storms. Heck there are storms firing up already this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Well, it sure was fun driving in all that rain on Capital Blvd in Raleigh this morning. And my son's teeball game will surely be cancelled tonight. Awesome. Looks like things could be bad in the plains again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Well, it sure was fun driving in all that rain on Capital Blvd in Raleigh this morning. And my son's teeball game will surely be cancelled tonight. Awesome. Looks like things could be bad in the plains again today. Driving wasn't bad at all from Hillsborough to Wake Forest Rd/ Six Forks Rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 06z GFS shows perfect setup for those who want warm weather to start June. I for one am going to the beach in 7 days, so one can only hope this starts around the 27th. 25th, eastern trough still dominates giving us temps max temps in NC at high 70's to 80. Trough moves out, ridge moves in on the 26th Ridge is here to stay from the 26th to the end of the run into June. We also have a friend off of Mexico, possibly the first hurricane of the season and it being a threat to the gulf states? Something to watch. I wouldn't be surprised if we start June in the mid 90's here in NC, which means even hotter temps for y'all down south. Enjoy the cool weather while it lasts folks, you have about 10 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Euro paints a different picture Jon. Warm but not overly hot. Looks normal to me. The GFS has been hiniting and hinting at hot temps for the past month and it never has really materialized here in the SE and I dont look for it to by the end of this month either. I could be wrong though. The warm not hot weather will be great to grill out in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Euro paints a different picture Jon. Warm but not overly hot. Looks normal to me. The GFS has been hiniting and hinting at hot temps for the past month and it never has really materialized here in the SE and I dont look for it to by the end of this month either. I could be wrong though. The warm not hot weather will be great to grill out in. Oh ok I haven't been model watching too much, just saw it and went with it. Not sure what the bias is between the two models during the summer as far as heat is concerned, I reckon the Euro is more trustworthy though. Also not sure about ensembles this far out, but some similarities between GFS op and ens, but not Euro OP and ens...hmm! Top is 12z, Bottom is 0z. Even if you go out shorter say 168hr, the Op of the Euro is much cooler for the SE than the ens. We'll see what happens, could go either way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Oh ok I haven't been model watching too much, just saw it and went with it. Not sure what the bias is between the two models during the summer as far as heat is concerned, I reckon the Euro is more trustworthy though. Also not sure about ensembles this far out, but some similarities between GFS op and ens, but not Euro OP and ens...hmm! Top is 12z, Bottom is 0z. Even if you go out shorter say 168hr, the Op of the Euro is much cooler for the SE than the ens. We'll see what happens, could go either way! Oh I agree. Just looking at tonight run of the GFS 00z run this weeknds cool shot got a jolt by the looks of things. Looks like the GFS is wanting to have a cutoff low of sorts in the Mid Atlantic or something for a shot period of time which really drives the trough down. Could see highs well below average and even some 30s for lows in the mountains. Also seems like the gfs has scaled back the heat a bit for the next ten days out. We will see but I can do average highs all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The line of storms marching through TN will have to be watched through the night. Could produce some high winds and hail along with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 06z GFS shows perfect setup for those who want warm weather to start June. I for one am going to the beach in 7 days, so one can only hope this starts around the 27th. 25th, eastern trough still dominates giving us temps max temps in NC at high 70's to 80. Trough moves out, ridge moves in on the 26th Ridge is here to stay from the 26th to the end of the run into June. We also have a friend off of Mexico, possibly the first hurricane of the season and it being a threat to the gulf states? Something to watch. I wouldn't be surprised if we start June in the mid 90's here in NC, which means even hotter temps for y'all down south. Enjoy the cool weather while it lasts folks, you have about 10 days! LOL, cool weather? It's already HOT (at least to me anyway) and humid, a lot more so than it has been in a while. Then again my comfort zone of warm weather is set low, anything above 80 (with humidity) is uncomfortable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Euro looking very cool the next few days for the East and the Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 LOL, cool weather? It's already HOT (at least to me anyway) and humid, a lot more so than it has been in a while. Then again my comfort zone of warm weather is set low, anything above 80 (with humidity) is uncomfortable to me. I have to agree with you. Maybe my tolerance for heat isn't as high as others, but the 85-89 degree weather with high humidity we've had the last 3 days felt brutal to me. Plus the sun angle is so high, about the same as it is on July 19th which makes it even worse. Not sure I can make it to September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 LOL, cool weather? It's already HOT (at least to me anyway) and humid, a lot more so than it has been in a while. Then again my comfort zone of warm weather is set low, anything above 80 (with humidity) is uncomfortable to me. I have to agree with you. Maybe my tolerance for heat isn't as high as others, but the 85-89 degree weather with high humidity we've had the last 3 days felt brutal to me. Plus the sun angle is so high, about the same as it is on July 19th which makes it even worse. Not sure I can make it to September. Hmm... Then you guys probably won't like how June starts off... I wouldn't be surprised to see highs climb into the low to mid 90s for some the first week of June as a big ole ridge builds over the southeast. A mid-level ridge, ~700 mb, looks to keep us rather dry, too. Enjoy this "cool" snap this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Hmm... Then you guys probably won't like how June starts off... I wouldn't be surprised to see highs climb into the low to mid 90s for some the first week of June as a big ole ridge builds over the southeast. A mid-level ridge, ~700 mb, looks to keep us rather dry, too. Enjoy this "cool" snap this weekend! Any cool weather this time of year is a bonus for most in the SE. looking at the extended (GFS) you're right; warm to hot with a SE ridge. There could be some signs of cooler (or less humid) way out but that's way out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Looks like we could see a late season frost here in the mountains this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I have to agree with you. Maybe my tolerance for heat isn't as high as others, but the 85-89 degree weather with high humidity we've had the last 3 days felt brutal to me. Plus the sun angle is so high, about the same as it is on July 19th which makes it even worse. Not sure I can make it to September. I quess we have been so wet here in the mountains with troughs making for late season cold snaps I have not really noticed any real warm weather here but I quess further south it is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Looks like CPC is buying the GFS as well. Knew I wasn't just seeing things! The Euro is pretty in line with the GFS for the long term, early may. GFS wins. LOL, cool weather? It's already HOT (at least to me anyway) and humid, a lot more so than it has been in a while. Then again my comfort zone of warm weather is set low, anything above 80 (with humidity) is uncomfortable to me. Yeah I was mostly talking to the NC folks or what I've experienced, my bad! I Know you GA folks have had some heat and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 Looks like CPC is buying the GFS as well. Knew I wasn't just seeing things! The Euro is pretty in line with the GFS for the long term, early may. GFS wins. Yeah I was mostly talking to the NC folks or what I've experienced, my bad! I Know you GA folks have had some heat and humidity. We have a -3 departure for the month so far down here. It hasn't really been hot this month. Sure we have had a couple of 90 degree days, but not all that hot. Next 7 days are slightly below average/average here if I go with the NWS forecast, and slightly above average if I go with TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Hmm... Then you guys probably won't like how June starts off... I wouldn't be surprised to see highs climb into the low to mid 90s for some the first week of June as a big ole ridge builds over the southeast. A mid-level ridge, ~700 mb, looks to keep us rather dry, too. Enjoy this "cool" snap this weekend! As long as it's not hot and humid then I can tolerate it. Do you think we will see highs in the mid 90s and dp's in the 70's ? I think I would die ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Hmm... Then you guys probably won't like how June starts off... I wouldn't be surprised to see highs climb into the low to mid 90s for some the first week of June as a big ole ridge builds over the southeast. A mid-level ridge, ~700 mb, looks to keep us rather dry, too. Enjoy this "cool" snap this weekend! Well, a few more days like today, this late in spring, and I'll have to strongly consider giving this the "best spring in the history of the world" award, lol. YOu can keep the heat and humidity for down there in Ctown I vote for every spring and summer to be like the last few months!!! In fact I'd love a segue right into fall 65.3 on May 24th.. my kind of spring eventide. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 We have a -3 departure for the month so far down here. It hasn't really been hot this month. Sure we have had a couple of 90 degree days, but not all that hot. Next 7 days are slightly below average/average here if I go with the NWS forecast, and slightly above average if I go with TWC. TWC uses the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Well the Euro shows a nice strong trough for the first of June coming in. A nice warm up and then a nice cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 An observation, and a question: Based on the outlook, especially the Euro, it appears that folks in North Carolina may go through May without topping 90 degrees. I know Faynam, which has flirted with 100 at least once in May for the past three years, hasn't gotten higher than 90. My question: Does anyone know the last time we've had a May that persistently mellow? When would the last time we didn't top 90 in May occur, and would that pattern be a decent part of seeking an analog for the upcoming tropical season? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 An observation, and a question: Based on the outlook, especially the Euro, it appears that folks in North Carolina may go through May without topping 90 degrees. I know Faynam, which has flirted with 100 at least once in May for the past three years, hasn't gotten higher than 90. My question: Does anyone know the last time we've had a May that persistently mellow? When would the last time we didn't top 90 in May occur, and would that pattern be a decent part of seeking an analog for the upcoming tropical season? Thanks! We have hit 90 three days so far, though it was just 90, 91 and 90 again. (15th, 16, and 17th). This is according to TWC's monthly. No more 90s forecasted for May! Woot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 I sure hope Larry is busy with his abacus calculating the odds for a smooth, cool, low humidity, high rainfall summer due to a late winter, early spring below average, rainy, cool down weathernanza. It would be cruel if a cool, wet spring doesn't equate to a cool wet summer, and a brutal sleety following winter, lol. Come on CrossRoads, tell us the good new!! It's already 76 at 1pm, and approaching my upper temp sanity limit. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 An observation, and a question: Based on the outlook, especially the Euro, it appears that folks in North Carolina may go through May without topping 90 degrees. I know Faynam, which has flirted with 100 at least once in May for the past three years, hasn't gotten higher than 90. My question: Does anyone know the last time we've had a May that persistently mellow? When would the last time we didn't top 90 in May occur, and would that pattern be a decent part of seeking an analog for the upcoming tropical season? Thanks! I'd look it up, but it's hard to do research when I am smiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 I sure hope Larry is busy with his abacus calculating the odds for a smooth, cool, low humidity, high rainfall summer due to a late winter, early spring below average, rainy, cool down weathernanza. It would be cruel if a cool, wet spring doesn't equate to a cool wet summer, and a brutal sleety following winter, lol. Come on CrossRoads, tell us the good new!! It's already 76 at 1pm, and approaching my upper temp sanity limit. T Well, my abacus doth saith that there is a moderate correlation between the highest reached in May/June and the highest reached in Jul-Sep. at KATL. If the highest in May/June were to be 91 or lower, that would bode well for the chances for the highest in July-Sep. being 96 or lower. This is based on a study I did that covers 1950-2012. There were 12 times (about one every five years...last one was in 2005) when the highest in May/June was 91 or lower (all were 88-91) vs. the normal of ~94. For ALL 12 of these, the highest in Jul-Sep. was 96 or lower (vs. the normal of ~96.5). More impressively, half (6) of these were 92 or lower. There have been only 9 years since 1950 with the highest in Jul.-Sep. being 92 or lower. So, 6 of the 9 instances of the highest in Jul-Sep. being 92 or lower were when the highest in May-June was 91 or lower. The last three years for which the highest in Jul-Sep. was 94 or lower (2005, 2003, 2001) had a May-June highest of 91 or lower. By the way, I'm thinking about starting a BB campaign for funds to get me a new abacus. The one I have is starting to get old. I think it is going to be 3,000 years old soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 We need to get you into the modern age... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 We need to get you into the modern age... abacus.jpg Cool, but the data charges are outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Cool, but the data charges are outrageous. They add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 They add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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