May 2013 Pattern and Discussion

[dwagner88]

Wasn't it last June that Atlanta had it's hottest temperature ever of 106 ?

Yeah. Many on this board broke all time highs last June. "Cool" it was not. We hit 107 here. Nashville hit 109.

[metalicwx366]

Wasn't it last June that Atlanta had it's hottest temperature ever of 106 ?

That was like the last 2 days of June and beginning of July. I don't know why yall were so warm up there. We had Debby also down here which gave mby 5 inches of rain. We never reached 100 here last year and averaged 2-3 below average for the month. Would have been lower if it weren't for the heatwave the last two days of June.

[Met1985]

That was like the last 2 days of June and beginning of July. I don't know why yall were so warm up there. We had Debby also down here which gave mby 5 inches of rain. We never reached 100 here last year and averaged 2-3 below average for the month. Would have been lower if it weren't for the heatwave the last two days of June.

If I am not mistaken down there and into Florida yall were below average on temps last summer.

[Bevo]

If I am not mistaken down there and into Florida yall were below average on temps last summer.

 

Much of the SE finished the Summer and Fall below *average (whatever the hell that really means).  That heat wave was short lived.

[griteater]

 

[FallsLake]

^{Not going to post any maps, but the extended GFS (past day 7 or 8) does not look hot. Not really cool either but a lot of 50 ish dewpoints. We are getting well into the warm season where 50s to low 60s dewpoints are about as good as we can hope on.}

[Met1985]

Much of the SE finished the Summer and Fall below *average (whatever the hell that really means).  That heat wave was short lived.

Ya here in the mountains it was a warm one though. Hot muggy and just about as misserable for me as it got. The rest of the SE looked like it did pretty well though.

 

^{Not going to post any maps, but the extended GFS (past day 7 or 8) does not look hot. Not really cool either but a lot of 50 ish dewpoints. We are getting well into the warm season where 50s to low 60s dewpoints are about as good as we can hope on.}

Ya I have been reading I think the Euro map has had a another cutoff coming through our part of the country again but the Euro weeklies look good also. Pretty much seasonable and heading into june a little cooler than normal.

[LithiaWx]

Does anyone (Larry) have stats on when the last time KATL made it to June 1st without a 90 degree day? Latest 1st 90 degree day on record?

[WxJordan]

Looks like we could be dealing with showers and thunderstorms for the next few days. I break down the chances at http://wxjordan.blogspot.com/2013/05/showers-and-storms-for-end-of-week-and.html.

These storm chances appear to remain even after the weekend into early next week. Overall, no real cool down or warm up with a chance of showers and storms for lots of people in the Carolinas. Some days will be more active than others, but the theme will be those showers and storms drifting around.

[LithiaWx]

Looks like we could be dealing with showers and thunderstorms for the next few days. I break down the chances at http://wxjordan.blogspot.com/2013/05/showers-and-storms-for-end-of-week-and.html.

These storm chances appear to remain even after the weekend into early next week. Overall, no real cool down or warm up with a chance of showers and storms for lots of people in the Carolinas. Some days will be more active than others, but the theme will be those showers and storms drifting around.

This isn't the place to promote your website.

[GaWx]

Does anyone (Larry) have stats on when the last time KATL made it to June 1st without a 90 degree day? Latest 1st 90 degree day on record?

 

2009 was the last time KATL didn't hit 90 prior to 6/1. However, it hit 90 on 6/1/2009. I don't have the latest 90 on record.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Does anyone (Larry) have stats on when the last time KATL made it to June 1st without a 90 degree day? Latest 1st 90 degree day on record?

Not sure what the latest 90 degree day on record is but I know in 2003 it didn't hit 90 until July 8th in Atlanta. The 2nd 90 degree day didnt occur until August 15th. There were only seven 90 degree days that summer and all the 90 degree days were either 90 or 91. It never got above 91 the entire summer !

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Much of the SE finished the Summer and Fall below *average (whatever the hell that really means).  That heat wave was short lived.

Atlanta averaged about 1 degree above average for the entire summer but July, which is typically the hottest month in Atlanta, averaged 4 degrees above normal. 4 degrees above normal in July in Atlanta is pretty oppressive. June and August were pretty close to normal fortunately, although of course the end of June was unbearable.

[Met1985]

Euro looks pretty seasonable through the rest of the month. Maybe even a little below normal going into later part of this month.

[Brick Tamland]

Not looking forward to the rain this weekend. I have been enjoying the warm, dry weather. It's been nice and not unbearable heat.

[Mr Bob]

Euro looks pretty seasonable through the rest of the month. Maybe even a little below normal going into later part of this month.

 

Not only the rest of the month, but well into JUne. The new weeklies show seasonal to slightly below through week three in the southeast.

[Brick Tamland]

So we had a winter that was warmer than normal, and now a spring and summer that looks cooler than normal. I'll take the temps bewteen 80 and 90 in the summer, but hope things swing back around in winter and we actually get some snow.

[buckeyefan1]

Looks like we could be dealing with showers and thunderstorms for the next few days. I break down the chances at 

These storm chances appear to remain even after the weekend into early next week. Overall, no real cool down or warm up with a chance of showers and storms for lots of people in the Carolinas. Some days will be more active than others, but the theme will be those showers and storms drifting around.

If you are going to do nothing more than promote your site, read more and post less    

 

Not only the rest of the month, but well into JUne. The new weeklies show seasonal to slightly below through week three in the southeast.

I'll take seasonal  

[WxJordan]

I agree that it appears to be seasonal through the rest of May into June. CPC says equal chance of average, below average, or above average temperatures through June. I don't see much of a warm up or heat wave chance for the rest of the month. Just near average temperatures and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

But  just as a side note, a group from my school (UNC-Asheville) is severe weather chasing in the plains and intercepted a tornado. There are pictures available under Chris Godfrey's page at atms.unca.edu. Pretty neat!

[Cold Rain]

Not only the rest of the month, but well into JUne. The new weeklies show seasonal to slightly below through week three in the southeast.

Good. Let's get it out of the way this summer so we can transition back into above normal and dry in time for winter.

[GaWx]

Not sure what the latest 90 degree day on record is but I know in 2003 it didn't hit 90 until July 8th in Atlanta. The 2nd 90 degree day didnt occur until August 15th. There were only seven 90 degree days that summer and all the 90 degree days were either 90 or 91. It never got above 91 the entire summer !

 

 You're correct except there is a tiny error. It got to 92 on 8/28/2003. The other six 90+'s were all exactly 90. There were no 91's.

[Mr Bob]

2001 waited until July 9th....another cool one for the southeastern US.

[GaWx]

Does anyone (Larry) have stats on when the last time KATL made it to June 1st without a 90 degree day? Latest 1st 90 degree day on record?

 

 

For KATL:

 

(I actually do have more info than I first thought)

 

1) Going back to 1885, the latest 1st 90+ is the 7/28 of 1961, when it hit 91. There is a small chance that 1884 had its first, which would have been exactly 90 since 90 was the hottest of July of 1884, between 7/28 and 7/31..say no higher than a 20% chance. I don't have the dailies for July 1884 to tell me, however.

 

2) Lowest highest of year was exactly 90, which was set in 1884 and 1967. Records go back to 1879.

 

3) Fewest # of 90+'s all year: Back to 1885, it was TWO, set in 1967. What I don't know is 1884 since I don't have the dailies. July was the only month in 1884 with any 90+'s and it/they were exactly 90. It is possible that July, 1884 had either two or one 90 high.

[NC_hailstorm]

The effects of the SSW really kicked in around late February and March,that was followed by strong wave 1 activity that reinforced the HLB -AO look.

 

The PV has taken a long time to recover but it looks to have done so slowly so that should diminish the HLB some.The MJO could throw a wrench into that if it gets into a favorable phase that could keep it going a little longer.

 

We'll see but just my opinion.

[Met1985]

Not only the rest of the month, but well into JUne. The new weeklies show seasonal to slightly below through week three in the southeast.

Ah thanks Mr. Bob for the backup. This weather has been perfect lately. I could take a whole summer of seasonal to slightly below.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the Midwest could have a lot of severe weather tomorrow and some tornadoes.

[LithiaWx]

For KATL:

 

(I actually do have more info than I first thought)

 

1) Going back to 1885, the latest 1st 90+ is the 7/28 of 1961, when it hit 91. There is a small chance that 1884 had its first, which would have been exactly 90 since 90 was the hottest of July of 1884, between 7/28 and 7/31..say no higher than a 20% chance. I don't have the dailies for July 1884 to tell me, however.

 

2) Lowest highest of year was exactly 90, which was set in 1884 and 1967. Records go back to 1879.

 

3) Fewest # of 90+'s all year: Back to 1885, it was TWO, set in 1967. What I don't know is 1884 since I don't have the dailies. July was the only month in 1884 with any 90+'s and it/they were exactly 90. It is possible that July, 1884 had either two or one 90 high.

Thank you, I'm pulling for no 90's this year.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

 You're correct except there is a tiny error. It got to 92 on 8/28/2003. The other six 90+'s were all exactly 90. There were no 91's.

I believe the spring before the summer of 2003 was also wet, just like this spring. What are the chances this summer is a repeat of 2003 ? It sounds like Atlanta has never had a summer where it didn't hit 90. Hopefully this summer is the first !

[dsaur]

So much for your no more cool days until winter theory.... 66 at noon in Mid May...with .7 in the bucket...and I expect more cool days to come   Even if it jumps to 80 this afternoon, 66 at noon with summer rushing on is hard to beat  

 

Larry...I'd like to see a record for most 60's and 70's in a summer...please use your CrossRoads powers to make it so!!   Tony

[Met1985]

On the Euro and pretty much the GFS runs it looks like the next 5-10 days in the SE looks very comfortable with the temps. Looks kind of like an avtive pattern also which would not really be any different than what we are already in. 3rd staight rainy weekend here in the mountains.